Lessons from bankruptcy of Hanjin Shipping Company in chartering

This paper aims to analyze the charter contract management of major container shipping companies in response to fluctuations in shipping market conditions in terms of contract duration using data of containerships between 2010 and 2016. Duration analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between charter duration and shipping market conditions. Moreover, this paper explores the causes of Hanjin Shipping Company’s bankruptcy, drawing managerial implications. Test results from Cox PH (Proportional Hazard) model show that most container shipping companies in Europe having net earnings purchased large vessels instead of chartering vessels, while some ocean carriers featuring poor financial performance, in particular the Hanjin Shipping Company, chartered bigger ships with higher charter rates and longer duration. Contract charter rates and duration of Hanjin Shipping Company featured greater risk compared to competitors.     

FFA在航运市场风险管理中的应用

随着国际干散货贸易的繁荣和运价波动性的加大,在过去几年里FFA市场也得到较大发展。分析国际干散货航运市场的不确定性,介绍远期运费协议(FFA)的含义及其在国际干散货航运市场中的发展情况,探讨FFA风险管理的作用,最后,面对航运市场较大的波动性,提出中国船东和租家必须学会利用FFA这一新的工具进行风险管理的建议。     

内贸散货船的现状剖析及江苏海事局的新要求

2008年金融危机之后,航运业外贸转内贸,对于内贸散货船的需求增加,对造船行业提出了新的要求。随着国际油价不断上涨,使得船东对于内贸散货船的建造成本有更严格的控制。简要介绍了内贸散货船的发展,在市场竞争中的特点,以及江苏海事局新颁布的《关于加强水上交通事故预防预控工作的通知》文件对内贸散货船的特殊要求以及对轮机设计工作带来的影响。     

Development of early warning index in Korean shipping industry by using signal approach

ABSTRACT

The study aims to investigate and prevent shipping companies’ insolvency that can be derived from depressed market sentiment in the shipping industry. For this purpose, the paper focuses on developing an early warning index. The main factors that contribute to the change in the shipping industry are derived. Sixty independent variables were accounted in the development of early warning index, some of which are shipping, shipbuilding, and finance. Suggestions drew from the result of early warning index are described as below. Firstly, the results of a signal approach towards independent variables showed lowest the signal error value in newbuilding price of containership, bunker price, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) commodity index, and order book of bulkship. These indicators have proven to be a high level of variation factor during shipping markets’ crisis. Secondly, the early warning index confirmed that it preceded by 6 months compared to probability of default. Thirdly, in order to validate the accuracy of the early warning index, the adequacy of the model was tested using a mean square error and time lag correlations. As a result of the verification, value proved to be at a high level of compliance at 0.097.     

基于信息流视角的智能船舶系统模型

通过船舶的智能化实现更加安全、环保、经济和可靠的航行,既满足国际海事法规的要求,也符合船东和其他利益相关方的需求。智能船舶代表一种未来船舶的发展状态,以通过大量数据以及信息的高效利用和船岸互联互通实现对船舶优化运营的支持为典型特征。文中结合国际海事组织的 e-Navigation技术架构,基于信息流视角提出一种与船舶平台无关的智能船舶系统模型。该模型综合考虑船载端和岸端数据和信息的采集、处理、交互和应用等问题,为智能船舶系统的描述提供一种通用的参考架构。     

Technical changes and impacts on economic performance of dry bulk vessels

Spurred by the expanding bulk shipping and technological innovations, dry bulk vessels have gained considerable development in ship types, ship design, and operation since the invention of the first specialized dry bulk carrier in the early 1950s. However, questions like: what changes in technical specifications have occurred for dry bulk vessels during the past four decades; what triggered these changes and what impacts have these specific changes had on shipping costs or earnings potential, have never been examined systematically in previous work. Subsequently, this article attempts to investigate changes in main technical specifications and relationships between the main technical variables and their economic performance measured by costs and revenues of dry bulk carriers. Technical changes in speed, deadweight, lightweight, and engines are checked for the main types of dry bulk vessels, and trends revealed in these developments are demonstrated to be the consequences of both technical improvement and economical considerations. Additionally, it has been found that the earnings potential differs much from dry bulk vessels with different technical specifications. This can be manifested in the sensitivity analysis. The analysis of this article may contain useful information to practitioners of dry bulk shipping in guiding their market decisions about ship building and operations.     

Competition in ship handling: a study of market turbulence in North European harbour towage

This paper addresses the issues of an increasingly competitive towage industry in Northern European ports. Enhanced competitiveness reflects the trends in the global mobility of capital, labour, enterprise and management within the context of deregulated port markets. Up until the early 1990s, the long term trend in major North European ports had been towards market concentration. Many small towage firms have been taken-over, bought out or merged. Alternatively, a pattern of consortia has emerged with co-operation and market sharing seen as preferable to ruinous competition. A contrasting trend has occurred in the 1990s, with new entrants into hitherto stable markets. In a number of ports—Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Southampton, Thamesport, Bristol Channel—new fleets have brought competitive challenge to the incumbent towage fleets. The process of enhanced competitiveness raises questions of safety, reliability, investment and professionalism. The movement towards an openly competitive shipping industry has been in evidence from the 1960s onwards. The momentum of a dynamic shipping industry, with its competitiveness sharpened by the use of global supply factors, has intensified from that period. The movement in European tonnage towards flags of convenience and global labour supplies began in the tanker and bulk carrier markets; more recently this has spread to deep sea liner, short sea and even cabotage trade shipping. The towage industry is the last North European shipping sector to make this transition, following the trends towards port deregulation in the 1990s. From this perspective, this paper considers the impact on the towage market of global mobility and deregulation in North European towage markets—the impact of increased competition on the traditional operators and the likely effect on operational towage standards.     

Valuation mismatch and shipping q indicator for shipping asset management

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision.     

Operational measures to mitigate and reverse the potential modal shifts due to environmental legislation

On 1 January 2015, the sulphur upper limit for marine fuels used within sulphur emission control areas was lowered from 1% to 0.1%, with which vessels can comply only through using pricier ultra-low-sulphur fuel, or investing in abatement technologies. A potential increase of fuel prices could lead to closures of services due to the combined effects of loss of market due to higher freight rates, and increased operational costs. This paper builds on previous work allowing the modelling of modal shifts between sea and land-based options, and assesses the potential of operational measures that ship-owners can deploy to cope with the threat of the low-sulphur requirements. The measures include speed reduction, change of service frequency, use of alternative fuels such as liquefied natural gas, investments in scrubber systems, and improved fleet assignment. The proposed measures are tested on a set of case studies for services that are part of a short sea shipping network of a leading Ro-Ro operator. The results of this work can be useful to practitioners seeking to design new strategies that improve the resilience of their network, as well as to regulatory bodies designing new regulation that could have negative implications on certain sectors.     

江苏船舶工业的造船市场预测

在对航运船舶发展进行综合研究的基础上，本文论述了预测航运市场船舶需求量的方法，并预测进入21世纪头10年江苏船舶工业的造船市场。     

超灵便型多用途船舶的开发和设计

主要介绍了灵便型多用途船舶市场需求的趋势以及其设计理念。这一新理念的3万t级多用途船被命名为“超灵便”型,4家中国船厂迄今收到了总共22艘该型船舶的订单,另有许多其他船舶公司表达了今后订购的意向。     

超灵便型多用途船舶的开发和设计

主要介绍了灵便型多用途船舶市场需求的趋势以及其设计理念.这一新理念的3万吨级多用途船被命名为"超灵便"型,4家中国船厂迄今收到了总共22艘该型船舶的订单,另有许多其他船舶公司表达了今后订购的意向.     

集装箱船舶大型化对上海港发展的影响和机遇

在集装箱航运市场中,由于超大型集装箱船优良的经济性能及全球集装箱航运结构的重组,并且在全球国际集装箱运输呈增长的趋势背景下,大批超大型集装箱船投入运营,对上海港的运营和发展形成一定的影响,但同时也给上海港的发展带来了机遇。上海港要应对国际航运市场的这种变化,就必须采取相应的策略。随着长三角经济圈的发展和洋山深水港一期、二期工程的完工,进一步巩固了上海港的国际集装箱枢纽港地位,上海港应抓住新的发展机遇,为上海早日建成国际航运中心奠定更加坚实的基础。     

Assessment of investment decision in the dry bulk shipping market based on real options thinking and the shipping cycle perspective

As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market.     

航运市场呼唤中国的航运运价指数期货

随着全球一体化与世界经济的迅猛发展，世界范围内的贸易不断扩大，2000年海运物流量达到58．8亿t^[1]。由于航运价格受到许多因素的影响而变化，它的变化对货主、船东与雇船者带来许多不确定的风险，通过航运运价指数期货可以降低航运业的风险，从而保障航运市场的稳定持续发展。     

Modelling and forecasting the demolition market in shipping

ABSTRACT

We model the demolition market, an integral part of the international shipping industry. It is shown through the implementation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that international steel-scrap prices contribute decisively towards price discovery in the ship-demolition industry. Our finding is explained and attributed to the fact that the growth models of Southeast Asian countries, where the ship-demolition market is primarily located, rely on scrap metal imports. These are mainly obtained from the developed economies rather than the recycling of vessels. We then proceed to test the forecasting ability of our model and use it for price prediction in the ship-demolition market. We establish that it provides the decision-makers with a useful prediction tool which enables all stakeholders involved, the ship owner, the recycler and the cash buyer alike, to gain valuable insights of the underlying trend in the sector.     

国际油运市场现状及发展趋势

随着世界经济的稳步发展,对石油的需求也在不断增加,而大部分的石油都是通过海上运输的,因此,国际油运市场备受关注。介绍了国际油运市场的现状,提出了影响国际油运市场的主要因素,其中包括国际经济形势、国际石油消费需求和运力,并阐述了三者与国际油运市场走势的关系,在此基础之上,展望了未来的国际油运市场发展趋势,并着重对未来市场的运力发展趋势进行了分析。     

长三角一体化首推五港合一

随着世界经济的稳步发展,对石油的需求也在不断增加,而大部分的石油都是通过海上运输的,因此,国际油运市场备受关注。介绍了国际油运市场的现状,提出了影响国际油运市场的主要因素,其中包括国际经济形势、国际石油消费需求和运力,并阐述了三者与国际油运市场走势的关系,在此基础之上,展望了未来的国际油运市场发展趋势,并着重对未来市场的运力发展趋势进行了分析。     

An analysis of the pricing system in the Greek–Italian coastal routes

Price discrimination is practiced by oligopolistic coastal shipping companies in the ‘unregulated’ Greece–Italy routes in the year 2002. Investigation has been carried out ‘per route’—in a doctoral thesis—instead of ‘per market’ which was the so-far erroneous approach of shipping economists. This is so for a host of differentiating factors play a considerable and non-negligible role (like geography, distance, demand, seasonality and others). Service—and price-discrimination—in coastal shipping is affected also by the predetermined ship design which thus is a special feature—but not exclusively—in coastal shipping. Companies in the Adriatic Sea try to extract the greater possible value of the user's willingness to pay, peak and off-peak, group and ungrouped, for social groups (clubs, families and students). Marketing and economics interfere in a complicated—far from the nice world of theory—situation, where maximization of revenue and profit, capacity utilization, intense seasonality and high fixed cost (common and joint costs as well) are a few of the factors that interplay. This paper can be considered as a case study for applied pricing. Excess capacity is also a strategic factor affecting pricing. It is our opinion that the analysis here gives for the first time a complete theoretical and practical account—based on the price lists of the companies—of the pricing policy of the ferry boats running in the Adriatic Sea belonging to coastal shipping companies connecting Italy with Greece and Greece with the European Union (EU). We believe this work to be useful for maritime Europe.     

内河航道定级与船舶大型化发展

随着我国经济的进一步发展和可持续发展战略的实施,运能大、占地面积小、能耗低、污染少的内河航运必将发挥出更大的作用。此外,内河船舶标准化、大型化的发展趋势日趋明显,小吨位船舶的运能及经济性劣势迫使其快速 淘汰,不少地区早年的航道定级已然不适应内河航运的发展需求。若城市的开发建设按不合理的航道定级标准进行规划控制,将极大地限制内河航运的发展,并对船舶的航行构成重大安全隐患。结合实际情况,探讨长三角地区内河航道定级调整的若干设想,并提出相关建议。