现役散货船横向构件蚀耗率的概率估算

文章以中散公司现役散货船测厚报告中的数据资料为基础 ,对船体横向构件蚀耗率的数字特征进行了估算。给出了各构件蚀耗率的概率密度曲线、概率分布曲线及超概率分布曲线 ,为散货船船体结构的强度评估和修理提供参考。     

船体结构蚀耗的可靠性计算

船体结构的蚀耗导致船体构件的故障,这种故障是一种渐发的过程。本文通过对船体壳板蚀耗测量数据的统计分析,建立了概率模型,并给出了一些可靠性的计算方法。根据实船的测量数据给出一些船型的可靠寿命曲线。     

点蚀损伤下纵向受压船体加筋板极限强度计算

基于实船点蚀损伤勘验数据,通过有限元数值计算法分析了点蚀分布、深度和面积等点蚀特征参数对船体加筋板极限强度的影响规律,给出了以点蚀深度和点蚀面积双参数的点蚀加筋板极限强度公式。结果表明:在点蚀不穿孔且点蚀面积低于10%条件下,当点蚀面积和点蚀深度一定时,蚀点分布造成的船体加筋板极限强度最大波动值低于2%;点蚀面积和点蚀深度对加筋板极限强度的影响是交互非独立的;基于点蚀面积、深度给出的双参数加筋板极限强度计算公式计算精度较高,满足工程需要。     

点蚀损伤船体结构板的极限剪切屈曲强度研究

腐蚀损伤导致船体结构板的极限承载能力大幅度下降。文章采用腐蚀体积描述板的点蚀损伤程度,模拟船体结构板的点蚀损伤形态,在点蚀损伤板模型中变化板的厚度、点蚀数目、点蚀直径以及点蚀分布等要素,实施系列有限元数值模拟计算,在进行理论分析的基础上,采用统计学方法,建立了点蚀损伤板极限剪切屈曲强度的评估方法,得到了点蚀损伤板极限剪切屈曲强度的计算公式。从而确立了基于腐蚀体积的点蚀损伤船体结构板极限剪切屈曲强度的评价技术,可为在役海船点蚀损伤后的安全性评估提供有效的技术手段。     

贝叶斯方法在船体结构疲劳分析中的应用

针对船体结构疲劳试验的小样本特点，探讨了确定船体结构疲劳寿命分布模型和建立疲劳性能曲线的贝叶新斯方法。该方法将先验信息与样本信息加以综合得到后验概率，将统计推断建立在后验概率的基础上，减小了因样本短而带来的统计分析误差，获得比传统方法更可靠的结果。     

按给定展开宽度进行船体外板展开计算

本文提出了按给定展开宽度进行船体外板展开计算的方法。其计算结果提供船体纵向板缝在横向板缝上的坐标、该块外板上横向板缝的曲线长度、按给定展开宽度展平外板的简易图形及其必要的数据。该方法将船体板缝放样和外板展开结合一起进行,为船体施工提供更多方便。     

轴向压力下含点蚀损伤加筋板极限强度研究

点蚀损伤常发生于船体结构,将会造成结构的局部缺失而影响船舶结构的安全性.针对船体结构的基本构件加筋板,采用非线性有限元法研究轴向压力下点蚀损伤对其极限强度的影响,考虑点蚀位置、直径、数目、深度、点蚀损失体积等影响因素,分析船体加筋板极限应力和屈曲失效模式,获得结构的极限强度,拟合影响因素和加筋板极限强度的关系曲线,定性分析了点蚀损伤对加筋板的破坏.结果表明,点蚀损伤削减了加筋板极限强度;点蚀影响因素(点蚀直径、数目、深度、损失体积)对含点蚀损伤加筋板极限强度的影响近似呈现非线性的二次单调函数关系.     

点蚀板在纵向压力下的极限强度研究

本文着眼于老龄化船舶结构上的局部点状腐蚀和整体点状腐蚀,利用非线性有限元软件分析了超过100个船体板结构的极限强度。研究了蚀坑形状、蚀坑位置、蚀坑大小、蚀坑深度和板的柔度对含局部点状腐蚀船体板的极限强度的影响,蚀坑分布、板的柔度和腐蚀体积对含点状腐蚀船体板的极限强度的影响。拟合出了单面、双面局部点状腐蚀下的船体板极限强度折减公式,单面、双面点状腐蚀下的船体板极限强度折减公式。并得到同时适用于局部和整体点状腐蚀板极限强度的公式。     

单点腐蚀船体板剩余疲劳寿命的数值计算

船体板在波浪载荷下会受到交变拉/压作用,因此必须考虑疲劳对船体板剩余寿命的影响,尤其是对含点腐蚀船体板剩余寿命的影响。本文对单点腐蚀船体板剩余疲劳寿命进行了数值计算,结果表明:使用二次单元对含蚀坑船体板应力集中系数的计算误差不超过10%,而使用线性单元误差可达40%;蚀坑直径对单点腐蚀船体板疲劳寿命的影响不大,而船体板剩余疲劳寿命随蚀坑深度的增大而迅速减小。可见,对于点腐蚀钢板的应力集中计算,使用而二次单元比使用线性单元更准确;蚀坑深度对单点腐蚀船体板剩余疲劳寿命的影响比蚀坑直径的影响更为显著。     

CFRP修复的FPSO点蚀船体梁极限强度分析

采用非线性有限元法对中拱和中垂工况条件下碳纤维增强聚合物(Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer, CFRP)修复的浮式生产储卸油装置(Floating Production Storage and Offloading, FPSO)点蚀船体梁极限强度进行仿真分析。对比FPSO的完整船体梁、点蚀船体梁和CFRP修复的点蚀船体梁的中拱极限弯矩和中垂极限弯矩，分析CFRP对FPSO点蚀船体梁的修复效果，并分析胶层失效规律。结果表明，CFRP可为船舶的高效修复提供一种新的方式。     

Probabilistic modelling of the ultimate strength of ship plates with non-uniform corrosion

This paper presents the results of a parametric study of probabilistic modelling of the ultimate strength of ship plates with non-uniform corrosion represented by random fields. The load-shortening behaviour of the plates with non-uniform reduction of thickness due to corrosion under longitudinal compression is obtained using a general-purpose nonlinear finite element analysis program. A nonlinear time-dependent corrosion model is used to define the probabilistic characteristics of the random fields based on corrosion data measured in plate elements at different locations of bulk carriers. Based on the probabilistic models derived by Monte Carlo simulation, equations to predict the mean and the 5 % characteristic value of the ultimate strength of plates with non-uniform corrosion are developed. Finally a regression equation is proposed to take into account the effect of non-uniform corrosion patterns in the predictions of the ultimate strength of plates with uniform corrosion.     

腐蚀对双壳超大型原油运输船船体的影响研究（英文）

This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of corrosion wastage on the ship hull of a double hull very large crude oil carrier. To calculate the ultimate bending moment capacity, along with the neutral axis position at the limit state, section modulus, and moment of inertia, the incremental-iterative method is employed. This paper also considered the residual strength checking criteria of ship hull and the ultimate stress behaviors of the representative structural elements. Then, Paik's probabilistic corrosion, which employs two levels of corrosion rate and three different assumptions of coating life time, is applied to assess the corrosion effects. The calculation results obtained through relevant analyses are also presented.     

船用冷凝器冷却管的腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法研究

针对船用冷凝器的主要失效模式-冷却管点蚀穿孔,用Gumbel分布拟合冷凝器冷却管最大腐蚀深度的概率分布,用长磨合期磨损速度公式拟合呈指数衰减形式的冷却管腐蚀速度,通过对最早泄漏时间预测值时刻的可靠度赋值,得到满足期望可靠度的最大腐蚀深度估计值及腐蚀剩余寿命.基于积累的腐蚀数据和船用冷凝器剖管分析报告,进行了实例计算.该方法是对腐蚀数据统计分析理论及腐蚀寿命预测理论的合理补充,且在确定设备检修时间及报废时间方面具有一定的应用价值.     

港口工程钢筋混凝土结构性能退化规律概率分析

以结构满足规范规定最低耐久性要求为前提,对港口工程钢筋混凝土结构的钢筋锈蚀率、承载力可靠度、纵向裂缝宽度和刚度退化系数进行了概率分析。结果表明,随着结构使用年限的增加,上述指标均有不同程度的降低。分析结果为制定合理的结构耐久性极限状态及建立相应设计方法提供了依据。     

Experimental and numerical study of localized pitting effect on compressive behavior of tubular members

Locally pitted tubular members are usually considered as stub columns to assess the ultimate strength. However, it is not suitable for those with relatively larger slenderness ratios as their failure behavior is more complex and closely related to corrosion features of localized pitting. This paper presents compressive column tests on locally pitted tubular members of a moderate slenderness ratio. Corrosion pits were artificially introduced on local surface of the members, forming corrosion patches with various corrosion features. A numerical modelling method was proposed to reproduce the test specimens. Localized pitting damage was proven to cause substantial declines in the load deformation capacity and ultimate strength, and have a significant effect on the failure mode. The failure of a pitted member is mostly initiated by local buckling after yielding occurs in the corrosion patch, concurrent with pitting closure, and even shear cracking of member wall due to the perforated pits. Moreover, shape change of the corrosion patch most likely results in the failure mode to alter from column buckling to local buckling or interactive buckling. The shape ratio of the corrosion patch is one of the critical factor to influence the ultimate strength of locally pitted members. The proposed modelling method is applicable for extensive stochastic simulations so as to develop an empirical formula and to clarify the probabilistic characteristics of ultimate strength.     

关于在役舰艇非概率可靠性模型的安全性评估

文章基于非概率可靠性理论和概率统计理论,结合描述抽样的蒙特卡洛数值模拟法,建立了腐蚀损伤下的现役舰艇船体结构非概率可靠性和概率可靠性分析模型。然后,以某大型舰艇为例,采用两种可靠性分析模型对该舰腐蚀损伤后船体结构的可靠性进行了分析,最后,对两种可靠性分析模型的计算结果进行了对比。结果表明:非概率可靠性理论既凸显不确定性变量的客观随机性又兼具计算量小、效率高、结果保守等优势,在工程应用中具有较强的适用性和实用性。     

Statistical characterization of surfaces of corroded steel plates

The statistical characteristics of corroded steel plate surfaces exposed to marine environments are of interest for assessing longer term structural safety and integrity using probabilistic methods. This requires information about the variability of corrosion loss and pitting over surfaces. The present paper reports on the observed statistical character of the surfaces of 10 large (1.2 m × 0.8 m × 3 mm thick) steel plates exposed in temperate climate marine immersion, tidal and splash zones for 2.5 years. For the analysis the plates were cut into smaller segments that were mechanically scanned to obtain digitised surface topographies. These were then analysed to estimate the correlation structure and the standard deviation of the surface topography. Considerable differences were found for these and for the mean corrosion loss between different exposure zones. For any one segment the surface topography was found to be highly statistically dependent, implying that smaller coupon sizes can provide adequate estimates of corrosion loss. From this it may be inferred that the deepest pits are not statistically independent as commonly assumed in extreme value statistical representations.     

锈蚀钢筋混凝土大偏心受压柱的数值模拟

基于锈蚀钢筋混凝土偏心受压构件承载力试验研究结果,运用ANSYS有限元分析软件,对锈蚀钢筋混凝土大偏心构件进行分析,通过温度场模拟钢筋锈蚀作用,得到锈蚀构件破坏特征及承载力随锈蚀程度的变化规律。经对比试验结果,该有限元模型数值计算与试验结果能较好吻合,温度场模拟钢筋锈蚀较理想。对不同直径钢筋影响受压柱承载力和裂缝分布规律进一步分析,结果表明:同等条件下,随着钢筋直径增加,钢筋锈胀力减小,裂缝开裂分布区域发生变化。     

Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.