The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings

This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

The Integrated Model on Mobile Payment Acceptance (IMMPA): An empirical application to public transport

This study examines the users’ acceptance and usage of mobile payments, focusing on the mobile ticketing technologies applied in a public transport context. We investigate the main predictors of the intention to use mobile ticketing and the relation between those predictors, considering the prominent literature on users’ technology acceptance background and extending the knowledge through an innovative contribution. The main models of reference in this study are the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), the Diffusion of Innovation Model (DOI) and the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model. The new model that we proposed is called the Integrated Model on Mobile Payment Acceptance (IMMPA), and it was designed specifically for mobile payments in the public transport, on the basis of the models previously mentioned. It was developed by mixing the variables of the existing models and adding new ones tailored to the mobile payment/ticketing framework. The theoretical framework was tested using the Structural Equation Models. The results show that the intention to use a technology is affected by the Usefulness, Ease of use and the Security of that technology. Moreover, the Usefulness is simultaneously influenced by the Ease of use, the Compatibility with users’ values and needs and their Attitude towards mobile services. Furthermore, the model confirms the direct relation between the intention to use a technology and its actual usage. The new predictor, that is the Attitude towards mobile services, includes those requirements that every mobile ticketing payment must address in this context: complete information, further information about time and delay, speed of use, intuitive interface, and path customisation. Another new construct detected is the Security, in reference to mobile payment. Because it could represent an obstacle to mobile ticketing distribution, it must be considered by market operators. The originality of the paper addresses the realisation of a new model, the IMMPA, which was specifically designed for mobile payment in the public transport.     

An empirical comparison of disaggregate category and regression trip generation analysis techniques

Category and regression household trip generation analysis techniques were compared and contrasted. The comparative research was facilitated through a discussion that revealed the interchangeability of two methods of calibrating a category model. While the cell mean method is simple to implement, it does not readily yield statistical indexes for comparison with regression models. The general linear model analysis of variance (GLANOVA) readily provides statistical indexes for the comparison of category and regression trip generation models, and it produces identical empirical results to the simpler cell mean approach of calibrating a category model.The empirical comparison supports the widespread use of category models for trip generation analysis in transportation planning studies. It was found that regression and category models yielded equivalent results for typical planning applications at the district level of aggregation. In addition, both techniques estimated overall trip rate with equal accuracy in the calibration phase, and the two approaches were indistinguishable with respect to sample size sensitivity. However, households with extremely large trip rates were underestimated to a greater degree by category models than regression models. This tendency, in turn, resulted in larger calibration coefficients of determination for regression models. Since the cell mean method of calibrating a model is simpler and easier to understand than a regression model representation, category models can be recommended over regression models for planning studies.     

An activity-episode generation model that captures interactions between household heads: development and empirical analysis

In this paper, we develop an approach for modeling the daily number of non-work, out-of-home activity episodes for household heads that incorporates in its framework both interactions between such members and activity setting (i.e. independent and joint activities). Trivariate ordered probit models are estimated for the heads of three household types – couple, non-worker; couple, one-worker; and couple, two-worker households – using data from a trip diary survey that was conducted in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) during 1987. Significant interactions between household heads are found. Moreover, the nature of these interactions is shown to vary by household type implying that decision-making structures and, more generally, household dynamics also vary by household type. In terms of predictive ability, the models incorporating interactions are found to predict more accurately than models excluding interactions. The empirical findings emphasize the importance of incorporating interactions between household members in activity-based forecasting models.     

Research trends in urban transport science: Some empirical evidence from academic research

The field of urban transport planning is now established as a scientific activity. Its historical evolution shows an intense search for the appropriate methodological approach, in view of the significant changes on the nature of the transport problem. This relationship between methodology and problem is studied on the basis of Kuhn's theory for scientific progress. Changes in paradigm are detected and analysed through the use of data from academic research leading for higher degrees in both the United Kingdom and the United States for a period of 20 years (1962–1981). A number of different classifications are proposed. The results of the analysis suggest that research in transport is passing through a transition phase, or paradigm shift, and that coping with the increasing level of complexity of the transport problem is the next step forward.     

Cost-benefit analysis according to Sen: An application in the evaluation of transport infrastructures in France

Made compulsory in France for major transport infrastructures, cost-benefit analysis is constantly being improved to achieve the best socio-economic evaluation possible. According to the philosopher and economist Amartya Sen, this analysis should meet two requirements: one ethical, the other democratic. We will examine the evaluation procedure in France and highlight the gap between its officially more democratic character and its still insufficiently ethical character, from the viewpoint of this dual requirement.     

Leisure mobility styles in Swiss conurbations: construction and empirical analysis

Leisure travel is the most difficult travel purpose to analyse due to the lack of fixed spatial and temporal referents and the consequent flexibility in patterns. This paper addresses lifestyles, social influence, and the travellers’ social networks, issues that have proved valuable for travel behaviour research in confronting the complexity of leisure travel. An approach for constructing leisure mobility styles, based on orientations towards leisure and mobility, will be presented first and then the hypotheses that transport behaviour can be better explained through analysis of leisure mobility styles will be tested. Multivariate analysis reveals that the leisure mobility style group makes a significant contribution towards clarifying variance for the activities ‘Visiting friends and relatives’, ‘Travel participation’, ‘Mode choice’, and ‘Travel distance for leisure’. The use of leisure mobility styles is most useful for developing practical intervention pointers where the in-group homogeneity of lifestyle should be addressed in greater detail.     

Comparing the output of cost benefit and multi-criteria analysis: An application to urban transport investments

This work compares the outcome of Cost Benefit Analysis and a Multi-Criteria method when applied to a transport project. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used, utilising two approaches to derive the weights. Results show that the outcome of the Multi-Criteria method did not match the one suggested by the Cost Benefit Analysis, but it did match the final decision by the authority. An important conclusion has to do with the relevance of incorporating other aspects into the assessment, apart from the economic ones. Furthermore, public opinion should be taken into account explicitly into the decision making, providing accurate and timely information about projects.     

Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models

Transport fuel consumption and its determinants have received a great deal of attention since the early 1970s. In the literature, different types of modelling methods have been used to estimate petrol demand, each having methodological strengths and weaknesses. This paper is motivated by an ongoing need to review the effectiveness of empirical fuel demand forecasting models, with a focus on theoretical as well as practical considerations in the model-building processes of different model forms. We consider a linear trend model, a quadratic trend model, an exponential trend model, a single exponential smoothing model, Holt’s linear model, Holt–Winters’ model, a partial adjustment model (PAM), and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. More importantly, the study identifies the difference between forecasts and actual observations of petrol demand in order to identify forecasting accuracy. Given the identified best-forecasting model, Australia’s automobile petrol demand from 2007 through to 2020 is presented under the “business-as-usual” scenario.     

An overview of transport in Kuwait

Abstract

Kuwait is a relatively small country located at the top of the Arabian Gulf with population in 1980 amounting to 1.355 millions. Kuwait occupies an area of approximately 17 800 square kilometres. Kuwait's main source of national income is oil export. Income from oil export and other sources has resulted in Kuwait having the highest per capita income in the world. Consequently vehicle ownership is very high and traffic is ever growing and extending. Kuwait is self‐sufficient in only a few commodities and has a shortage of local labour. This means that transport has a fundamental role to play at the national and international level for the development of Kuwait's economy.

This paper provides a brief statement of transport in Kuwait. It starts by describing Kuwait's national setting and touches on the economic and social aspects in Kuwait that have an influence on transport patterns and needs. It describes the national transport system and covers road, air, rail and ports. Urban development planning in Kuwait is described and issues related to stages of urban development planning. The Kuwait City Master Plan and new town initiatives are presented. The urban transport system in Kuwait Metropolitan Area is described. In particular the characteristics of the urban road network and public transport facilities are outlined along with recent transport planning studies and new initiatives in the urban transport system.

The paper ends with a statement on organizations involved in the transport sector in Kuwait and a note on transport finance.     

Environmental and transport effects of warehouse relocationing: evidence from Norway

Reducing traffic volumes and CO2-emissions from freight transport has proven difficult in many countries. Although the increasing suburbanization of warehouses is seen as a relevant land use trend, comprehensive analyses of their impact remain scarce. This study uses real data in modeling transport, costs, environmental and modal effects from warehouse relocations around Oslo and Trondheim (Norway). Results indicate that for Oslo, traffic performance (ton-km), CO2-emissions, and transport costs increase following warehouse suburbanization. For Trondheim, transport performance and CO2-emissions increase less, while transport costs decrease marginally. We conclude that specific case characteristics (geography and trade patterns) are important in determining the strength and direction of effects, and expect that common concomitant developments (warehouse centralization and consolidation) would lead to more pronounced results. Our findings confirm some, but challenge other, findings from the relatively scarcely literature available. Finally, the study's more general insights and observations can help advance similar analyses beyond Norway.     

Long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks on land-use change: an international review of empirical studies

Improvements in geographical information systems, the wider availability of high-resolution digital data and more sophisticated econometric techniques have all contributed to increasing academic interest and activity in long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks (TINs) on land use (LU). This paper provides a systematic review of recent empirical evidence from the USA, Europe and East Asia, classified regarding the type of transport infrastructure (road or rail), LU indicator (land cover, population or employment density, development type) and outcome (significance, relationship’s direction) as well as influential exogenous factors. Proximity to the rail network is generally associated with population growth (particularly soon after the development of railway infrastructure), conversion to residential uses and the development of higher residential densities. Meanwhile, proximity to the road network is frequently associated with increases in employment densities as well as the conversion of land to a variety of urban uses including commercial and industrial development. Compared with road infrastructure, the impact of rail infrastructure is often less significant for land cover or population and employment density change. The extent of TINs’ impact on LU over time can be explained by the saturation in TIN-related accessibility and LU development.     

Speed-flow relations and cost functions for congested traffic: Theory and empirical analysis

A dynamic ‘car-following’ extension of the conventional economic model of traffic congestion is presented, which predicts the average cost function for trips in stationary states to be significantly different from the conventional average cost function derived from the speed-flow function. When applied to a homogeneous road, the model reproduces the same stationary state equilibria as the conventional model, including the hypercongested ones. However, stability analysis shows that the latter are dynamically unstable. The average cost function for stationary state traffic coincides with the conventional function for non-hypercongested traffic, but rises vertically at the road’s capacity due to queuing, instead of bending backwards. When extending the model to include an upstream road segment, it predicts that such queuing will occur under hypercongested conditions, while the general shape of the average cost function for full trips does not change, implying that hypercongestion will not occur on the downstream road segment. These qualitative predictions are verified empirically using traffic data from a Dutch bottleneck. Finally, it is shown that reduced-form average cost functions, that relate the sum of average travel cost and average schedule delay costs to the number of users in a dynamic equilibrium, certainly need not have the intuitive convex shape, but may very well be concave – despite the fact that the underlying speed-flow function may be convex.     

The use of self-monitoring solutions amongst cyclists: An online survey and empirical study

Self-monitoring has been shown to be one of the most efficient behaviour change techniques to promote physical activity. However, there has been no research on the exact nature and impact of using various self-monitoring solutions (e.g. cycle computer, cadence monitor, smartphone’ physical activity apps) amongst cyclists. Initially, an online survey was conducted with 227 adults who did or did not use self-monitoring solutions with their cycling. We found that the most important features for cyclists who use self-monitoring are: time it takes to travel, cycling speed, and distance covered. In contrast, cyclists who do not use self-monitoring perceived features related to location (e.g. directions with maps) as the most important ones. In a subsequent study we included self-monitoring solutions as a part of mixed-design, small-scale, longitudinal intervention aimed at changing transportation patterns. We found that self-monitoring is mainly suitable for performance oriented cyclists rather then recreational cyclists. We discuss the implications of those results for designing interventions to promote cycling.     

Intention and willingness to pay for green freight transportation: An empirical examination

The objective of this paper is to explore what motivates consumer intention and willingness to pay for green transportation. The model is based on the theory of planned behavior and explains the relationship between consumer attitude, perceived behavioral control and peer pressure on intention and willingness to pay for a t-shirt that was transported using energy efficient fuel. Data from a survey of U.S. consumers is analyzed. Results suggest consumer attitude and peer pressure are positively associated with intention which is positively associated with willingness to pay. High levels of consumer attitude, perceived behavioral control and intention suggest a positive outlook for organizations investing in green transportation initiatives. Results also suggest a need for organizations and government to market and educate consumers and citizens about the positive implications of green transportation and using energy efficient fuel.     

On the perceived justice of urban road pricing: An empirical study in Lyon

Various methods of restricting automobile traffic, by price (tolls) or by quantity (odd/even license plates or limited days of traffic), are tested in a survey (N ～ 400) about attitudes toward traffic restrictions in Lyon, France. Ordered probit models with random-effects panel allow us to estimate the survey respondents’ perceptions of these methods, as well as the roles of individual socio-demographic characteristics in the formation of these perceptions. Both the restriction of automobile traffic and its regulation by congestion (waiting in line) are widely considered unjust by the respondents, regardless of whether they work and whether they are drivers or non-drivers. Their attitudes towards tolls justified by the pollution caused by automobile traffic are less negative. As regards compensation, in addition to emergency vehicles and those that transport people with limited mobility, respondents believe car-pooling ought to benefit of a toll exemption. The support for a reduced rate for low-income users shows a concern for justice to which it will be necessary to respond. The respondents’ socio-professional status, level of education, car use or non-use, and residence inside or outside of the toll zone clearly play a role in their perceptions of these methods of regulation and compensation.