Cost-minimizing retrofit/replacement strategies for diesel emissions reduction

The cost effectiveness of various emission reduction diesel retrofits is analyzed, as is early vehicle retirement. An integer program is developed to find cost-minimizing cleanup strategies, given reduction goals for various pollutants, as well as technological and budget constraints. Retrofits are assumed to take place in the present, but benefits and costs can be distributed over time. Budget constraints deal with short-term expenditures, while the overall objective is to minimize the net present value of short and long-term costs. The model is intended as a tool both for fleet owners and for government administrators. A case study examines the potential to clean up a diesel school bus fleet.     

Jointly optimizing cost, service, and environmental performance in demand-responsive transit scheduling

In certain fleet systems, the environmental impacts of operation are, to some extent, a controllable function of vehicle routing and scheduling decisions. However, little prior work has considered environmental impacts in fleet vehicle routing and scheduling optimization, in particular, where the impacts were assessed systematically utilizing life-cycle impact assessment methodologies such as those described by the Society of Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology. Here a methodology is presented for the joint optimization of cost, service, and life-cycle environmental consequences in vehicle routing and scheduling, which we develop for a demand-responsive (paratransit or dial-a-ride) transit system. We demonstrate through simulation that, as a result of our methodology, it is possible to reduce environmental impacts substantially, while increasing operating costs and service delays only slightly.     

Design framework of large-scale one-way electric vehicle sharing systems: A continuum approximation model

This paper proposes a Continuum Approximation (CA) model for design of a one-way Electrical Vehicle (EV) sharing system that serves a metropolitan area. This model determines the optimal EV sharing station locations and the corresponding EV fleet sizes to minimize the comprehensive system cost, including station construction investment, vehicle charging, transportation and vehicle balancing, under stochastic and dynamic trip demands. This is a very complex problem due to the NP-hard nature of location design, the large number of individual users, and the stochasticity and dynamics of generated trips. Further, the considerable charging time required by EVs distinguishes this problem from traditional car sharing problems where a vehicle is immediately available for pickup after being dropped at a station. We find that the CA approach can overcome these modeling challenges by decomposing the studied area into a number of small neighborhoods that each can be approximated by an Infinite Homogeneous Plane (IHP). We find that the system cost of an IHP is a unimodal function of the station service area size and can be efficiently solved in a sub-linear time by the bisection algorithm. Then integrating the solutions of all IHPs yields an approximate solution to the original heterogeneous area. With numerical experiments, we show that the CA solution is able to estimate the total system cost of the discrete counterpart solution efficiently with good accuracy, even for large-scale heterogeneous problems. This implies that the proposed CA approach is capable of providing a near-optimum solution to the comprehensive design of a practical large-scale EV sharing system. With this model, we also conduct sensitivity analysis to reveal insights into how cost components and system design vary with key parameter values. As far as the author’s knowledge, this study is the first work that addresses design of an EV sharing system considering both longer-term location and fleet size planning and daily vehicle operations. The proposed CA model also extends the CA methodology literature from traditional location problems with stationary demand, single-facility based service to EV sharing problems considering dynamic demands, OD trips, and nonlinear vehicle charging times.     

The use of Bayesian statistics to predict patterns of spatial repeatability

Statistical spatial repeatability (SSR) is an extension to the well known concept of spatial repeatability. SSR states that the mean of many patterns of dynamic tyre force applied to a pavement surface is similar for a fleet of trucks of a given type. A model which can accurately predict patterns of SSR could subsequently be used in whole-life pavement deterioration models as a means of describing pavement loading due to a fleet of vehicles. This paper presents a method for predicting patterns of SSR, through the use of a truck fleet model inferred from measurements of dynamic tyre forces. A Bayesian statistical inference algorithm is used to determine the distributions of multiple parameters of a fleet of quarter-car heavy vehicle ride models, based on prior assumed distributions and the set of observed dynamic tyre force from a ‘true’ fleet of one hundred simulated models. Simulated forces are noted at 16 equidistant pavement locations, similar to data from a multiple sensor weigh-in-motion site. It is shown that the fitted model provides excellent agreement in the mean pattern of dynamic force with the originally generated truck fleet. It is shown that good predictions are possible for patterns of SSR on a given section of road for a fleet of similar vehicles. The sensitivity of the model to errors in parameter estimation is discussed, as is the potential for implementation of the method.     

The fleet size and mix pollution-routing problem

This paper introduces the fleet size and mix pollution-routing problem which extends the pollution-routing problem by considering a heterogeneous vehicle fleet. The main objective is to minimize the sum of vehicle fixed costs and routing cost, where the latter can be defined with respect to the cost of fuel and CO₂ emissions, and driver cost. Solving this problem poses several methodological challenges. To this end, we have developed a powerful metaheuristic which was successfully applied to a large pool of realistic benchmark instances. Several analyses were conducted to shed light on the trade-offs between various performance indicators, including capacity utilization, fuel and emissions and costs pertaining to vehicle acquisition, fuel consumption and drivers. The analyses also quantify the benefits of using a heterogeneous fleet over a homogeneous one.     

Optimal bus fleet management strategy for emissions reduction

Transportation is a major cause for environmental degradation via exhaust emissions. For many transit-oriented metropolitan areas, bus trips often constitute a sizeable mode share. Managing the bus fleet, in particular updating buses to comply with the newer emissions standards, therefore, can have a substantial impact on transportation-induced air quality. This paper presents the approach of remaining life additional benefit–cost (RLABC) analysis for maximising the total net benefit by either early-retiring or retrofitting the current bus fleet within their lifespans. By referring to the net benefits for different bus types estimated by RLABC analysis, the most beneficial management scheme for the current bus fleet can be identified. Optimal bus fleet management (BFM) models based on the RLABC analysis for the operator and the government are developed. Then a government subsidy plan is produced to achieve win–win solutions, which will offer efficient and flexible management schemes. To illustrate the approach, the largest bus company in Hong Kong, which carries more than 23% of the total trips in Hong Kong, is taken as a case study example. Instead of adopting a fixed retirement plan, such as replacing buses at the age of 17 as is currently practised, the proposed method develops an optimal BFM scheme that progressively phases out buses or retrofits them. This study produces promising results to demonstrate the large benefit of this approach for optimal bus fleet management.     

Fleet scheduling and dispatching for demand-responsive passenger services

This paper describes a software system designed to manage the deployment of a fleet of demand-responsive passenger vehicles such as taxis or variably routed buses. Multiple modes of operation are supported both for the fleet and for individual vehicles. Booking requests can be immediate (i.e. with zero notice) or in advance of travel. An initial implementation is chosen for each incoming request, subject to time-window and other constraints, and with an objective of minimising additional travel time or maximising a surrogate for future fleet capacity. This incremental insertion scheme is supplemented by post-insert improvement procedures, a periodically executed steepest-descent improvement procedure applied to the fleet as a whole, and a “rank-homing” heuristic incorporating information about future patterns of demand. A simple objective for trip-insertion and other scheduling operations is based on localised minimisation of travel time, while an alternative incorporating occupancy ratios has a more strategic orientation. Apart from its scheduling functions, the system includes automated vehicle dispatching procedures designed to achieve a favourable combination of customer service and efficiency of vehicle deployment. Provision is made for a variety of contingencies, including travel slower or faster than expected, unexpected vehicle locations, vehicle breakdowns and trip cancellations. Simulation tests indicate that the improvement procedures yield substantial efficiencies over more naı̈ve scheduling methods and that the system will be effective in real-time applications.     

Total cost minimizing transit route structures considering trips towards CBD and periphery

The total cost minimizing approach to design transit systems is extended here beyond the usual dimensions of fleet (frequency) and vehicle size in order to examine the most appropriate spatial setting of transit lines as well. Motivated by the case of large cities in Latin America, characterized by high volumes of relatively long urban trips, we analyze the best ways to provide public transport services in a simplified urban setting represented by an extended cross-shaped network, where short trips (periphery–center) and long trips (periphery–periphery) coexist, generating economies of density. Three families of strategic lines structures are compared: mostly direct, feeder–trunk and hub and spoke. For each structure fleet and vehicle sizes are optimized, considering total (users’ and operators’) costs. The best structure is found parametrically in total passenger volume, the proportion of long trips and the value of the transfer penalty. The advantages of each dominating structure are explained in terms of factors like idle capacity, waiting or in-vehicle times and number of transfers.     

Intelligent transportation system based dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling with variable travel times

This paper presents a dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling model that incorporates real time information using variable travel times. Dynamic traffic simulation was used to update travel times. The model was applied to a test road network. Results indicated that the total cost decreased by implementing the dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling model with the real time information based on variable travel times compared with that of the forecast model. As well, in many cases total running times of vehicles were also decreased. Therefore, the dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling model will be beneficial for both carriers in reducing total costs and society at large by alleviating traffic congestion.     

Green vehicle technology to enhance the performance of a European port: A simulation model with a cost-benefit approach

In this paper, we study the impact of using a new intelligent vehicle technology on the performance and total cost of a European port, in comparison with existing vehicle systems like trucks. Intelligent autonomous vehicles (IAVs) are a new type of automated guided vehicles (AGVs) with better maneuverability and a special ability to pick up/drop off containers by themselves. To identify the most economical fleet size for each type of vehicle to satisfy the port’s performance target, and also to compare their impact on the performance/cost of container terminals, we developed a discrete-event simulation model to simulate all port activities in micro-level (low-level) details. We also developed a cost model to investigate the present values of using two types of vehicle, given the identified fleet size. Results of using the different types of vehicles are then compared based on the given performance measures such as the quay crane net moves per hour and average total discharging/loading time at berth. Besides successfully identifying the optimal fleet size for each type of vehicle, simulation results reveal two findings: first, even when not utilising their ability to pick up/drop off containers, the IAVs still have similar efficacy to regular trucks thanks to their better maneuverability. Second, enabling IAVs’ ability to pick up/drop off containers significantly improves the port performance. Given the best configuration and fleet size as identified by the simulation, we use the developed cost model to estimate the total cost needed for each type of vehicle to meet the performance target. Finally, we study the performance of the case study port with advanced real-time vehicle dispatching/scheduling and container placement strategies. This study reveals that the case study port can greatly benefit from upgrading its current vehicle dispatching/scheduling strategy to a more advanced one.     

Fuel cycle emissions and life cycle costs of alternative fuel vehicle policy options for the City of Houston municipal fleet

Municipal fleet vehicle purchase decisions provide a direct opportunity for cities to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants. However, cities typically lack comprehensive data on total life cycle impacts of various conventional and alternative fueled vehicles (AFV) considered for fleet purchase. The City of Houston, Texas, has been a leader in incorporating hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and battery electric (BEV) vehicles into its fleet, but has yet to adopt any natural gas-powered light-duty vehicles. The City is considering additional AFV purchases but lacks systematic analysis of emissions and costs. Using City of Houston data, we calculate total fuel cycle GHG and air pollutant emissions of additional conventional gasoline vehicles, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles to the City's fleet. Analyses are conducted with the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model. Levelized cost per kilometer is calculated for each vehicle option, incorporating initial purchase price minus residual value, plus fuel and maintenance costs. Results show that HEVs can achieve 36% lower GHG emissions with a levelized cost nearly equal to a conventional sedan. BEVs and PHEVs provide further emissions reductions, but at levelized costs 32% and 50% higher than HEVs, respectively. CNG sedans and trucks provide 11% emissions reductions, but at 25% and 63% higher levelized costs, respectively. While the results presented here are specific to conditions and vehicle options currently faced by one city, the methods deployed here are broadly applicable to informing fleet purchase decisions.     

The impact of depot location,fleet composition and routing on emissions in city logistics

This paper investigates the combined impact of depot location, fleet composition and routing decisions on vehicle emissions in city logistics. We consider a city in which goods need to be delivered from a depot to customers located in nested zones characterized by different speed limits. The objective is to minimize the total depot, vehicle and routing cost, where the latter can be defined with respect to the cost of fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions. A new powerful adaptive large neighborhood search metaheuristic is developed and successfully applied to a large pool of new benchmark instances. Extensive analyses are performed to empirically assess the effect of various problem parameters, such as depot cost and location, customer distribution and heterogeneous vehicles on key performance indicators, including fuel consumption, emissions and operational costs. Several managerial insights are presented.     

The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050

The future of US transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport policy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future characteristics of US light-duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future US vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future fleet emissions and fuel use are inherently uncertain and thus the shortfall in understanding the impact of uncertainty on the future of US transport needs to be addressed. This paper uses a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model to quantify the uncertainties in US vehicle fleet emissions and fuel use for a realistic yet ambitious pathway which results in about a 50% reduction in fleet GHG emissions in 2050. The results show the probability distribution of fleet emissions, fuel use, and energy consumption over time out to 2050. The expected value for the fleet fuel consumption is about 450 and 350 billion litres of gasoline equivalent with standard deviations of 40 and 80 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The expected value for the fleet GHG emissions is about 1360 and 850 Mt CO₂ equivalent with standard deviation of 130 and 230 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The parameters that are major contributors to variations in emissions and fuel consumption are also identified and ranked through the uncertainty analysis. It is further shown that these major contributors change over time, and include parameters such as: vehicle scrappage rate, annual growth of vehicle kilometres travelled in the near term, total vehicle sales, fuel economy of the dominant naturally-aspirated spark ignition vehicles, and percentage of gasoline displaced by cellulosic ethanol. The findings in this paper demonstrate the importance of taking uncertainties into consideration when choosing amongst alternative fuel and emissions reduction pathways, in the light of their possible consequences.     

A new shared vehicle system for urban areas

The paper concerns the conceptual design of a transport system for pedestrian areas. The proposed transport system is based on a fleet of eco-sustainable Personal Intelligent City Accessible Vehicles (PICAVs). The vehicles are shared through the day by different users and the following specific services will be provided: instant access, open ended reservation and one way trips. Referring to the proposed transport system, a new methodology to optimise the fleet dimension and its distribution among the stations is proposed in this paper. The problem faced is an optimisation problem where the cost function to be minimised takes into account both the transport system cost and the user costs that depend on the waiting times. A random search algorithm has been adopted. Given a fleet dimension and its distribution among the stations, the waiting times of the users are assessed by a microscopic simulation. The simulation model tracks the second-by-second activity of each PICAV user, as well as the second-by-second activity of each vehicle. The overall methodology has been implemented in an object-oriented simulator. The proposed transport system has been planned and simulated for the historical city centre of Genoa, Italy.     

Shared autonomous electric vehicle (SAEV) operations across the Austin,Texas network with charging infrastructure decisions

Shared autonomous vehicles, or SAVs, have attracted significant public and private interest because of their opportunity to simplify vehicle access, avoid parking costs, reduce fleet size, and, ultimately, save many travelers time and money. One way to extend these benefits is through an electric vehicle (EV) fleet. EVs are especially suited for this heavy usage due to their lower energy costs and reduced maintenance needs. As the price of EV batteries continues to fall, charging facilities become more convenient, and renewable energy sources grow in market share, EVs will become more economically and environmentally competitive with conventionally fueled vehicles. EVs are limited by their distance range and charge times, so these are important factors when considering operations of a large, electric SAV (SAEV) fleet.This study simulated performance characteristics of SAEV fleets serving travelers across the Austin, Texas 6-county region. The simulation works in sync with the agent-based simulator MATSim, with SAEV modeling as a new mode. Charging stations are placed, as needed, to serve all trips requested (under 75 km or 47 miles in length) over 30 days of initial model runs. Simulation of distinctive fleet sizes requiring different charge times and exhibiting different ranges, suggests that the number of station locations depends almost wholly on vehicle range. Reducing charge times does lower fleet response times (to trip requests), but increasing fleet size improves response times the most. Increasing range above 175 km (109 miles) does not appear to improve response times for this region and trips originating in the urban core are served the quickest. Unoccupied travel accounted for 19.6% of SAEV mileage on average, with driving to charging stations accounting for 31.5% of this empty-vehicle mileage. This study found that there appears to be a limit on how much response time can be improved through decreasing charge times or increasing vehicle range.     

The fleet renewal problem with regional emission limitations: Case study from Roll-on/Roll-off shipping

In this paper, the maritime fleet renewal problem (MFRP) is extended to include regional limitations in the form of emission control areas. The motivation for including this aspect is that strengthening of emission regulations in such areas is expected to be challenging for deep sea shipping in the years to come. In the proposed model, various means to cope with these stricter emission regulations are evaluated for new vessels, and the possibility of upgrading existing vessels with new emission reduction technology is introduced. We consider future fuel prices to be important for the problem, and have chosen to treat them as uncertain, and thus, a stochastic programming model is chosen. A fleet renewal problem faced by the liner shipping operator Wallenius Wilhelmsen Logistics, concerning whether to use low sulphur fuel or have an exhaust gas scrubber system installed to comply with sulphur regulation in emission control areas from 2015, is used as a case study. Furthermore, tests show that the savings from including the aspect of emission control areas in the MFRP are substantial.     

The sequenced activity mobility simulator (SAMS): an integrated approach to modeling transportation, land use and air quality

The persistence of environmental problems in urban areas and the prospect of increasing congestion have precipitated a variety of new policies in the USA, with concomitant analytical and modeling requirements for transportation planning. This paper introduces the Sequenced Activity-Mobility Simulator (SAMS), a dynamic and integrated microsimulation forecasting system for transportation, land use and air quality, designed to overcome the deficiencies of conventional four-step travel demand forecasting systems. The proposed SAMS framework represents a departure from many of the conventional paradigms in travel demand forecasting. In particular, it aims at replicating the adaptative dynamics underlying transportation phenomena; explicitly incorporates the time-of-day dimension; represents human behavior based on the satisficing, as opposed to optimizing, principle; and endogenously forecasts socio-demographic, land use, vehicle fleet mix, and other variables that have traditionally been projected externally to be input into the forecasting process.     

Economic costs and environmental impacts of alternative fuel vehicle fleets in local government: An interim assessment of a voluntary ten-year fleet conversion plan

Vehicle fleets are widely viewed by policy makers as attractive first markets for introduction of alternative fuel technologies. Although, it is essential to understand the environmental benefits and economic challenges involved in fleet conversion, the literature provides little understanding of the implementation issues associated with alternative fuel vehicles. This paper examines the cost effectiveness and environmental impact of the conversion of a 180 plus vehicle fleet to alternative fuel vehicle technologies by a public organization at the mid-point of the project implementation. Using multi-year micro data on fuel usage, operational and capital expenditures, mileage and emissions, the paper examines conversion costs and infrastructure investments required, extent of user adoption, and emissions reductions achieved. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for managerial practice in local government fleet agencies and for future research.     

Recursive expected conditional value at risk in the fleet renewal problem with alternative fuel vehicles

We study the fleet portfolio management problem faced by a firm deciding which alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to choose for its fleet to minimise the weighted average of cost and risk, in a stochastic multi-period setting. We consider different types of technology and vehicles with heterogeneous capabilities. We propose a new time consistent recursive risk measure, the Recursive Expected Conditional Value at Risk (RECVaR), which we prove to be coherent. We then solve the problem for a large UK based company, reporting how the optimal policies are affected by risk aversion and by the clustering for each type of vehicle.     

Energy impact evaluation for eco-routing and charging of autonomous electric vehicle fleet: Ambient temperature consideration

This paper studies the heterogeneous energy cost and charging demand impact of autonomous electric vehicle (EV) fleet under different ambient temperature. A data-driven method is introduced to formulate a two-dimensional grid stochastic energy consumption model for electric vehicles. The energy consumption model aids in analyzing EV energy cost and describing uncertainties under variable average vehicle trip speed and ambient temperature conditions. An integrated eco-routing and optimal charging decision making framework is designed to improve the capability of autonomous EV’s trip level energy management in a shared fleet. The decision making process helps to find minimum energy cost routes with consideration of charging strategies and travel time requirements. By taking advantage of derived models and technologies, comprehensive case studies are performed on a data-driven simulated transportation network in New York City. Detailed results show us the heterogeneous energy impact and charging demand under different ambient temperature. By giving the same travel demand and charging station information, under the low and high ambient temperature within each month, there exist more than 20% difference of overall energy cost and 60% difference of charging demand. All studies will help to construct sustainable infrastructure for autonomous EV fleet trip level energy management in real world applications.