基于LEAP模型的城市客运交通能耗和污染物排放预测

我国交通运输业能源消耗量与污染物排放量日益增多,交通部门的节能减排措施研究迫在眉睫。本论文基于LEAP模型构建了某城市客运交通能耗与污染物排放模型,并预测了基准情景、政策情景、技术情景及综合情景下该城市客运交通2014-2030年之间的能耗及污染物排放情况。研究表明,三种发展情景下该城市能源需求量及污染物排放较基准情景均有减少,其中综合情景效果最佳,综合情景在2030年的能源消耗与CO2排放可分别减少56.98%和54.55%,CO、HC、NOx与PM2.5可分别减排67.39%、67.27%、51.43%与75.38%。因此应大力发展公共交通,尤其是轨道交通,同时限制私家车的无节制发展,并推广节能环保技术以改善终端利用层次能源结构。     

无锡市绿色循环低碳交通发展经验总结及思考

交通运输业是国民经济的基础性行业,也是能源消费和碳排放的主要行业之一。文中介绍了江苏省无锡市绿色循环低碳交通工作从起步至今取得的成绩,并总结了无锡市绿色循环低碳研究中心作为工作主体,在强化技术支撑,承担低碳交通与节能减排技术咨询服务工作中的一些经验、存在的问题,以及后续工作的展望。以期为其他城市绿色循环低碳交通工作提供有益的经验及借鉴。     

基于压电效应的地铁交通枢纽的节能减排分析及应用

随着低碳生活理念逐渐深入人心,越来越多的人们选择公共交通出行,伴随而来的是交通枢纽压力的日益增大,交通枢纽处的能源能耗和碳排放问题日渐显著.为减少地铁交通枢纽的能源消耗,一方面要减少能源使用量,另一方面可以使用可再生的清洁能源.本研究以压电效应为原理,利用压电装置将乘客在交通枢纽内位移运动时产生的机械能转为电能,并通过设计电路将能源收集起来,用于满足地铁交通枢纽中常见设施的供电需求,如照明、自动售票机、应急设备等,最终实现交通枢纽节能减排.     

城市交通低碳化发展策略研究

随着我国城市机动车保有量快速增长,污染物排放总量持续攀升,所带来的城市污染问题日趋严重,发展低碳交通成为我国城市交通发展的战略方向。本文基于我国城市交通低碳化发展现状及存在问题及影响因素,结合国外发达国家城市交通低碳化的发展经验,分析了城市交通低碳化发展的外因和内因及存在的主要问题,提出在我国能源结构短期内难以发生根本性改变的情况下,大力和优先发展公共交通,逐步建立以大运量轨道交通和快速交通为骨干、常规公共汽电车为主体、其他公共交通方式为补充的城市公共交通体系,将是实现城市交通低碳化和可持续发展最有效的途径。同时,还需不断提高交通能效,开发和利用可再生能源,提高交通运输管理水平,引导公众理性选择出行方式。     

天津市低碳交通发展模式研究

从生命周期的角度对各出行方式单位里程碳排放情况进行了计算分析。在此基础上通过情景分析法,结合对天津市交通发展趋势进行分析研究,提出适合于天津的低碳交通发展模式。     

交通能源革命的公路序曲

正2014年习近平总书记提出能源革命,十九大明确了要建设清洁低碳安全高效的现代能源体系。发展能源互联网,被视为我国提振经济、推动转型发展的重要着力点。交通运输作为能源消耗大户,和我国节能减排三个重点领域之一,对于打好污染防治攻坚战具有重要意义。近年来,交通运输部扎实推进绿色循环低碳发展,紧紧围绕提高能源利用效率、降低温室气体排放,不断提升发展理念,加快调整交通运输结构,健全法规制度体系,切实加强     

我国交通运输业碳排放及其减排潜力分析

本文基于交通运输碳排放因素分解模型,定量分析了1991～2010年间交通能源效率、交通运输结构和交通发展水平等因素的变化对交通运输碳排放的影响。在此基础上,识别各种减排途径,并设定不同的减排情景,分析了未来10年我国交通运输部门的减排潜力。     

低碳经济背景下公路交通运输经济发展趋势研究

为实现公路交通运输经济的可持续发展,从优化交通结构、发展绿色交通技术、推进能源结构调整等方面分析低碳经济背景下公路交通运输经济发展趋势。在此基础上,提出低碳经济背景下公路交通运输经济的发展路径,包括建设绿色基础设施,促进资源循环利用;培育绿色物流企业,提升服务水平;建立碳排放管理体系,实现可持续发展等,以供参考。     

低碳经济下城际与城市周边公路交通模式研究

随着人们收入的不断提高及汽车业的快速发展,汽车大量进入普通家庭,但由此产生的碳排放带来的城市环境问题也日益严峻,如何落实低碳交通理念,消减碳排放,已成业界研究的焦点;另外,近年来交通堵塞亦愈发严重,如何解决此问题也一直是困扰人类的难题。本文就如何在低碳经济下发展公路交通进行研究,从城市交通规划设计思想上提出一套全新模式。首先在交通始端将车提至某高度,利用重力和动力使车加速;其次是关键路段,在该段利用倾斜角度使车实现匀速行驶;最后是到达目的地前几公里段,让车行驶在平整公路上以便车流分解。在此思想模式引导下,做出新型公路设计,并对其进行分析。这种创新将丰富低碳交通的理论和方法体系,为建设低碳运输提供重要的思路,对改善现行交通中存在的重大问题,具有一定的现实意义。     

氢能汽车的产业化场景开拓与培育策略

“双碳”战略驱动下,交通领域面临严峻的降碳减排压力,氢能汽车产业化应用是建立绿色交通运输体系的重要途径。文章通过文献梳理全球氢能产业发展现状及趋势,并进一步借助对比分析,阐释氢能汽车产业化应用的相对优势:续航里程长、环境适应性更好、绿色无污染、燃烧热值高。结合我国低碳交通发展诉求,文章从城市公共交通、能源陆运体系、绿色交通物流和低碳冷链物流4个方面提出了氢能汽车产业化应用的场景开拓方向,并揭示了氢能汽车产业发展的现实问题,进而设计加快氢能汽车产业化的培育策略:制定并完善氢能汽车商业应用技术标准;加快布局加氢站网络;建设西部氢能交通运输走廊;鼓励氢能汽车产业链上下游协同合作;实施积极的财税补贴政策;推动关键材料国产化。     

Factors and scenario analysis of transport carbon dioxide emissions in rapidly-developing cities

To identify key factors of transport CO₂ emissions and determine effective policies for emission reductions in fast-growing cities, this study establishes transport CO₂ emission models, quantifying the influences of polycentricity and satellite cities and re-examining the effects of per capita GDP and metro service. Based on the model results, we forecast future residents’ urban transport CO₂ emissions under several scenarios of different urban and transport policies and new energy technologies. We find nonlinear quadratic growth relationship between commuting CO₂ emissions and per capita GDP, and the elasticities of household and individual commuting CO₂ emission to per capita GDP are 1.90% and 1.45%, respectively. Developing job-housing balanced satellite cities and self-contained polycentric city can greatly decrease emissions from high emitters and can contribute to about 51–82% of the emission reductions by 2050 compared with the scenario of business as usual (BAU). Promotion of electric vehicles, electric public buses, metros, and improvement of traditional energy efficiency contributes to about 48–57% of the emission reductions by 2050 compared with the BAU. When these policies and technologies are combined, about 90% of the emissions could be reduced by 2050 compared with the BAU, and the emissions will be about 1.2–4.9 times of the present. The findings suggest that fostering polycentric urban form and job-housing balanced satellite cities is the key step for future transport CO₂ emission reductions. Metro network promotion, energy efficiency improvement, and new energy type applications can also be effective in emission reductions.     

Carbon emission from urban passenger transportation in Beijing

Urban passenger transport significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, especially in developing countries owing to the rapid motorization, thus making it an important target for carbon reduction. This article established a method to estimate and analyze carbon emission from urban passenger transport including cars, rail transit, taxis and buses. The scope of research was defined based on car registration area, transport types and modes, the stages of rail transit energy consumption. The data availability and gathering were fully illustrated. A city level emission model for the aforementioned four modes of passenger transport was formulated, and parameters including emission factor of electricity and fuel efficiency were tailored according to local situations such as energy structure and field survey. The results reveal that the emission from Beijing’s urban passenger transport in 2012 stood at 15 million tonnes of CO₂, of which 75.5% was from cars, whereas car trip sharing constitutes only 42.5% of the total residential trips. Bus travel, yielding 28.6 g CO₂, is the most efficient mode of transport under the current situations in terms of per passenger kilometer (PKM) emission, whereas car or taxi trips emit more than 5 times that of bus trips. Although a decrease trend appears, Beijing still has potential for further carbon reduction in passenger transport field in contrast to other cities in developed countries. Development of rail transit and further limitation on cars could assist in reducing 4.39 million tonnes CO₂ emission.     

Exploring transport carbon futures using population microsimulation and travel diaries: Beijing to 2030

Evaluating transport policy for cities in developing countries is often constrained by data availability that limits the use of conventional appraisal models. Here, we present a new ‘bottom-up’ methodology to estimate transport CO₂ emission from daily urban passenger travel for Beijing, a megacity with relatively sparse data on travel behaviour. A spatial microsimulation, based on an activity diary survey and two sample population censuses, is used to simulate, for Beijing’s urban districts, a realistic synthetic population, and their daily travel and CO₂ emission over 2000–2010. This approach provides greater insight into the spatial variability of transport CO₂ emission than has previously been possible for Beijing, and further, enables an examination of the role of socio-demographics, urban form and transport developments in contributing to emissions over the modelled period.Using the 2000–2010 CO₂ emission estimates as a baseline, CO₂ emissions from passenger travel are then modelled to 2030 under scenarios exploring politically plausible strategies on transport (public transport infrastructure investment, and vehicle constraint), urban development (compaction) and vehicle technology (faster adoption of clean vehicle technology). The results showed that, compared to the trend scenario, employing both transport and urban development policies could reduce total passenger CO₂ emission to 2030 by 24%, and by 43% if all strategies were applied together. The study reveals the potential of microsimulation in emission estimation for large cities in developing countries where data availability may constrain more traditional approaches.     

自行车在山地城市应用的可行性探究

随着中国城镇化、机动化水平的提高,"以车为本"的交通发展导向已经暴露出了诸多的弊端。为了有效缓解山地城市交通的拥堵问题以及环境污染问题,本文分析了自行车在山地城市发展的重要意义,并且从环境、交通、社会以及经济四个方面详细阐述了自行车交通在山地城市运用的可行性以及注意事项,从而促进山地城市自行车系统的良好发展,倡导山城市民拥有绿色低碳出行的理念。     

Impact of public transport and non-motorized transport infrastructure on travel mode shares,energy, emissions and safety: Case of Indian cities

Current modal share in Indian cities is in favor of non-motorized transport (NMT) and public transport (PT), however historical trends shows decline in its use. Existing NMT and PT infrastructure in Indian cities is of poor quality resulting in increasing risk from road traffic crashes to these users. It is therefore likely that the current NMT and PT users will shift to personal motorized vehicles (PMV) as and when they can afford it. Share of NMT and PT users can be retained and possibly increased if safe and convenient facilities for them are created. This shall also have impact on reducing environment impacts of transport system.We have studied travel behavior of three medium size cities – Udaipur, Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam. Later the impact of improving built environment and infrastructure on travel mode shares, fuel consumption, emission levels and traffic safety in Rajkot and Vishakhapatnam are analyzed. For the purpose three scenarios are developed – improving only NMT infrastructure, improving only bus infrastructure and improving both NMT and bus infrastructure.The study shows the strong role of NMT infrastructure in both cities despite geographical dissimilarities. The scenario analysis shows maximum reduction in CO₂ emissions is achieved when both PT and NMT infrastructure are improved. Improvement in safety indicator is highest in this scenario. Improving only PT infrastructure may have marginal effect on overall reduction of CO₂ emissions and adverse effects on traffic safety. NMT infrastructure is crucial for maintaining the travel mode shares in favor of PT and NMT in future.     

Emission control areas: More or fewer?

As the global sulphur limit implemented by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the further development of sulphur emission reduction technologies, the effects of Emission Control Areas (ECAs) on reducing the sulphur emissions from ships will be reduced gradually. To explore the necessity of ECAs in the near future, this paper introduces the fictitious sulphur emission permit allocated to shipping carriers for our considered region. We propose an ECA location problem, which determines the location of ECAs in order to minimize the impact of sulphur emissions on human health, while satisfying the constraint on the fictitious sulphur emission permit. A mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed for our investigated problem. Numerical experiments are carried out by using our proposed model applied to China and Africa, where the sulphur emissions at different sites are estimated via the fuel consumption calculated by collecting data from liner carriers. Results show that, for the case of China, the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have a high probability for establishing ECAs. For the case of Africa, the Guinea Bay and South Africa have a high probability for establishing ECAs.     

Low-carbon futures for Shenzhen’s urban passenger transport: A human-based approach

Shenzhen, one of China’s leading cities, has the potential to be a model for achieving China’s ambitious CO₂ emission reduction targets. Using data from a travel diary survey in Shenzhen in 2014, we develop a human-based agent model to conduct a scenario study of future urban passenger transport energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from 2014 to 2050. Responses to different policy interventions at the individual level are taken into account. We find that with current policies, the carbon emissions of the urban passenger transport sector in Shenzhen will continuously increase without a peak before 2050. Strengthening 21 transport policies will help Shenzhen to peak the carbon emissions by 2030 for passenger transport. Among these policies, the car quota policy and the fuel economy standard are essential for achieving a carbon peak by 2030. In addition, a package of seven policies, including fewer car quotas, a stricter fuel economy standard, raising parking fees, limiting parking supply, increasing EV charging facilities and subway lines, and improving public transport services, is sufficient to peak carbon emissions by 2030, although at an emissions level higher than for the 21 policies.     

Urban Space Distribution and Sustainable Transport

In many cities of the world, road space is increasingly contested. Growing vehicle numbers, traffic calming and the development of new infrastructure for more sustainable transport modes such as bicycles have all contributed to pressure on available space and conflicts over the allocation of space. This paper provides the first assessment of urban transport infrastructure space distribution, distinguishing motorized individual transport, public transport, cycling and walking. To calculate area allocation, an assessment methodology was developed using high-resolution digital satellite images in combination with a geographical information system to derive area measurements. This methodology was applied to four distinctly different city quarters in Freiburg, Germany. Results indicate that space is unevenly distributed, with motorized individual transport being the favoured transport mode. Findings also show that if trip number to space allocation ratios are calculated, one of the most sustainable transport modes, the bicycle, is the most disadvantaged. This suggests that area allocation deserves greater attention in the planning and implementation of more sustainable urban transport designs.     

浅谈高速公路美丽服务区的建设思路

构建美丽服务区应以绿色、低碳、循环发展、智慧化以及满足出行用户的多元化需求为出发点,从节能建筑、清洁能源应用、污水处理及循环利用、固废处理及循环利用、生态服务、人性化服务等环节综合考虑,从而提升服务区整体形象,加强服务区设施的人性化和标准化服务管理。本文从高速公路美丽服务区构建的必要性入手,探讨了从节能建筑、清洁能源应用、污水处理及循环利用、固废处理及循环利用、生态服务、人性化服务等方面构建美丽服务区。