Ecophysiological growth characteristics and modeling of the onset of the spring bloom in the Baltic Sea

The onset of spring bloom in temperate areas is a transition period where the low productive, winter phytoplankton community is transformed into a high productive spring community. Downwelling irradiance, mixing depth and the ability of the phytoplankton community to utilize the light, are key parameters determining the timing of the onset of the spring bloom. Knowing these parameters would thus provide tools for modeling the spring bloom and enhance our knowledge of ecophysiological processes during this period.Our main objective with this study was to provide data for the growth characteristics of some key species forming the spring bloom in the Gulf of Finland, and to apply those results in a simple dynamic model for the onset of the spring bloom, in order to test if the timing of the spring bloom predicted by the models corresponds to field observations. We investigated the photosynthetic characteristics of three diatoms and two dinoflagellates (Chaetoceros wighamii, Melosira arctica, Thalassiosira baltica, Scrippsiella hangoei and Woloszynskia halophila), at low temperatures (4–5 °C). All of these species are common during spring bloom in the Baltic Sea.Cultures of these species were acclimated to different irradiance regimes prior to measurements of photosynthesis, respiration, pigment concentration and light absorption. We did not find a positive relationship between respiration and growth rate, and we hypothesize that this relationship, which is well established at higher temperatures, is negligible or absent at low temperatures (< 10 °C). Photosynthetic maximum (P_m), and maximum light utilization coefficient (α) was lowest and respiration (R) highest in the dinoflagellates.We made a model of the onset of the spring bloom in the western part of Gulf of Finland, using the obtained data together with monitoring data of mixing depth and water transparency from this area. Model results were compared to field observations of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration. There was a good agreement between the model predictions and the observed onset of the spring bloom for the diatoms. S. hangoei, however, was not able to reach positive production in the model, and W. halophila had the similar growth characteristics as S. hangoei. Consequently, these species must have other competition strategies enabling them to exist and grow during spring bloom.     

Relationship between phytoplankton bloom and wind stress in the sub-polar frontal area of the Japan/East Sea

The seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton blooms in the central Japan/East Sea (JES) show pronounced year-to-year variability based on Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS; 19972003) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra (20002003) observations. Wind seems to strongly influence this variability. To study the relationship between wind and bloom initiation, we analyzed daily, remotely sensed wind stress data (Active Microwave Instrument–wind [AMI–wind], NASA Scatterometer [NSCAT], and Quick Scatterometer [QuickSCAT]: 19972003) and daily chlorophyll concentrations based on ocean color data (SeaWiFS and MODIS). The results agreed well with the hypotheses; in spring, blooms began 615 days after wind stress weakened. Fall blooms started 39 days after wind strengthened. We also simulated seasonal changes using a simple light–nutrient model using two values for the respiration ratio: 10% and 20%. The use of 20% seemed to reproduce the timing of the spring bloom quite well but underestimated the absolute level of chlorophyll concentration. On the other hand, using 10% produced a better estimation of the chlorophyll concentration but failed to match the timing. Neither of the model runs reproduced the timing of the fall bloom well.     

Diatom stratigraphy and long-term dissolved silica concentrations in the Baltic Sea

In many parts of the world coastal waters with anthropogenic eutrophication have experienced a gradual depletion of dissolved silica (DSi) stocks. This could put pressure on spring bloom diatom populations, e.g. by limiting the intensity of blooms or by causing shifts in species composition. In addition, eutrophication driven enhanced diatom growth is responsible for the redistribution of DSi from the water phase to the sediments, and changes in the growth conditions may be reflected in the sediment diatom stratigraphy.To test for changes in diatom communities we have analyzed four sediment cores from the Baltic Sea covering approximately the last 100 years. The sediment cores originate from the western Gulf of Finland, the Kattegat, the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Riga. Three out of the four cores reveal only minor changes in composition of diatom assemblages, while the Gulf of Riga core contains major changes, occurring after the second World War. This area is set apart from the other Baltic Sea basins by a high frequency of low after spring bloom DSi concentrations (< 2 µmol L^− 1) during a relatively well defined time period from 1991–1998. In 1991 to 1993 a rapid decline of DSi spring concentrations and winter stocks (down to 5 µmol L^− 1) in the Gulf was preceded by exceptionally intense diatom spring blooms dominated by the heavily silicified species Thalassiosira baltica (1991–1992; up to 5.5 mg ww L^− 1). T. baltica has been the principal spring bloom diatom in the Gulf of Riga since records began in 1975. DSi consumption and biomass yield experiments with cultured T. baltica suggest that intense blooms can potentially exhaust the DSi stock of the water column and exceed the annual Si dissolution in the Gulf of Riga. The phytoplankton time series reveals another exceptional T. baltica bloom period in 1981–1983 (up to 8 mg L^− 1), which, however, took place before the regular DSi measurements. These periods may be reflected in the conspicuous accumulation of T. baltica frustules in the sediment core corresponding to ca. 1975–1985.     

Biologically induced modification of seawater viscosity in the Eastern English Channel during a Phaeocystis globosa spring bloom

To identify the potential relationship between Pheaocystis globosa bloom conditions and seawater properties, a hydrobiological survey was performed in the inshore waters of the Eastern English Channel over the course of the phytoplankton spring bloom. Chlorophyll concentration, auto- and hetero/mixotrophic composition of protists and standing stock, and seawater viscosity were measured weekly from March to June 2004. The decline of the bloom is characterized by a massive foam formation in the turbulent surf zone. Before foam formation, seawater viscosity significantly increased, showing a significant positive correlation with chlorophyll concentration. In contrast, after foam formation this correlation was negative, seawater viscosity kept increasing despite a sharp decrease in chlorophyll concentrations. No significant correlation has been found between seawater viscosity and the composition of the phytoplankton assemblages observed during the survey. However, significant positive correlations have been found between seawater viscosity and both the size and the abundance of P. globosa colonies. From the correlation patterns observed between chlorophyll concentration and seawater viscosity, we suggest that the rheological properties of seawater are mainly driven by extracellular materials associated with colony formation and maintenance rather than by cell composition and standing stock.     

Convection and the seeding of the North Atlantic bloom

Observations of vertical velocities in deep wintertime mixed layers using neutrally buoyant floats show that the convectively driven vertical velocities, roughly 1000 m per day, greatly exceed the sinking velocities of phytoplankton, 10 m or less per day. These velocities mix plankton effectively and uniformly across the convective layer and are therefore capable of returning those that have sunk to depth back into the euphotic zone. This mechanism cycles cells through the surface layer during the winter and provides a seed population for the spring bloom. A simple model of this mechanism applied to immortal phytoplankton in the subpolar Labrador Sea predicts that the seed population in early spring will be a few percent of the fall concentration if the plankton sink more slowly than the mean rate at which the surface well-mixed layer grows over the winter. Plankton that sink faster than this will mostly sink into the abyss with only a minute fraction remaining by spring. The shallower mixed layers of mid-latitudes are predicted to be much less effective at maintaining a seed population over the winter, limiting the ability of rapidly sinking cells to survive the winter.     

Why is the southwest the most productive region of the East Sea/Sea of Japan?

The East Sea/Sea of Japan is a moderately productive sea that supports a wealth of living marine resources. Of the East Sea subregions, the southwest has the highest productivity. Various authors have proposed coastal upwelling, the Tsushima Current, the Changjiang Dilute Water, eddies, or discharge from the Nagdong River as potential sources of additional nutrients. In this paper, we propose, using satellite data from 1998 to 2006, that the biological productivity of the southwestern region is enhanced mainly by wind-driven upwelling along the Korean coast. Firstly, the climatology of seasonal patterns suggests that the enhanced chlorophyll a along the Korean coast is of local origin. Secondly, coastal upwelling is frequent in all seasons except winter. For example, along the coast of the Ulgi region, enhanced chlorophyll a due to coastal upwelling was observed for 25–92% of the time between Jun and Sep in the period 1998–2006. Thirdly, the advection of upwelled water through various pathways to the deeper basin was observed. Fourthly, there appeared to be a strong correlation between the interannual chlorophyll a variations of the coastal upwelling regions and the Ulleung Basin. The chlorophyll a patterns of both regions were closely related to the wind pattern in the upwelling regions, but not to that in the Ulleung Basin. Finally, changes in advection pathways also appeared to affect the productivity of the Ulleung Basin. Since 2004, there has been a shift in the pathways of upwelled water, and consequent increases in chlorophyll a in the Ulleung Basin were observed. This last observation requires further investigation.     

Distribution of phytoplankton in the southern Black Sea in summer 1996, spring and autumn 1998

The species composition, abundance, and biomass of micro- (>15 μm) and nano- (<15 μm) phytoplankton were studied along the southern Black Sea during June–July 1996 and March–April and September 1998. A total of 150 species were identified, 50% of them being dinoflagellates. The average total phytoplankton abundance changed from 77×10³ cells l⁻¹ in spring to 110×10³ cells l⁻¹ in autumn and biomass from 250 μg l⁻¹ in summer to 1370 μg l⁻¹ in spring. Based on the extensive sampling grid from June–July 1996, phytoplankton seemed to have a rather homogeneous biomass distribution in the southern Black Sea. In all periods, the coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyi was the most abundant species, its contribution to the total abundance ranging from 73% in autumn to 43% in spring. However, in terms of biomass, diatoms made up the bulk of phytoplankton in spring (97%, majority being Proboscia alata) and autumn (73%, majority being Pseudosolenia calcar-avis), and dinoflagellates in summer (74%, Gymnodinium sp.). There was a remarkable similarity in the dominant species between the western and eastern regions of the southern Black Sea, indicating transport of phytoplankton within the basin.     

Microbial food web responses to light and nutrients beneath the coastal Arctic Ocean sea ice during the winter–spring transition

We measured the abundance and biomass of phototrophic and heterotrophic microbes in the upper mixed layer of the water column in ice-covered Franklin Bay, Beaufort Sea, Canada, from December 2003 to May 2004, and evaluated the influence of light and nutrients on these communities by way of a shipboard enrichment experiment. Bacterial cell concentrations showed no consistent trends throughout the sampling period, averaging (± SD) 2.4 (0.9) × 10⁸ cells L^− 1; integrated bacterial biomass for the upper mixed layer ranged from 1.33 mg C m^− 3 to 3.60 mg C m^− 3. Small cells numerically dominated the heterotrophic protist community in both winter and spring, but in terms of biomass, protists with a diameter > 10 µm generally dominated the standing stocks. Heterotrophic protist biomass integrated over the upper mixed layer ranged from 1.23 mg C m^− 3 to 6.56 mg C m^− 3. Phytoplankton biomass was low and variable, but persisted during the winter period. The standing stock of pigment-containing protists ranged from a minimum value of 0.38 mg C m^− 3 in winter to a maximal value of 6.09 mg C m^− 3 in spring and the most abundant taxa were Micromonas-like cells. These picoprasinophytes began to increase under the ice in February and their population size was positively correlated with surface irradiance. Despite the continuing presence of sea ice, phytoplankton biomass rose by more than an order of magnitude in the upper mixed layer by May. The shipboard experiment in April showed that this phototrophic increase in the community was not responsive to pulsed nutrient enrichment, with all treatments showing a strong growth response to improved irradiance conditions. Molecular (DGGE) and microscopic analyses indicated that most components of the eukaryotic community responded positively to the light treatment. These results show the persistence of a phototrophic inoculum throughout winter darkness, and the strong seasonal response by arctic microbial food webs to sub-ice irradiance in early spring.     

Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

Seasonality of picophytoplankton chlorophyll a and biomass in the central Cantabrian Sea, southern Bay of Biscay

Seasonal changes in the abundance and biomass of cyanobacteria (Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus) and picoeukaryotes were studied by flow cytometry in the upper layers of the central Cantabrian Sea continental shelf, from April 2002 to April 2006. The study area displayed the typical hydrographic conditions of temperate coastal zones. A marked seasonality of the relative contribution of prokaryotes and eukaryotes was found. While cyanobacteria were generally more abundant for most of the year (up to 2.4 10⁵ cells mL^− 1), picoeukaryotes dominated the community (up to 10⁴ cells mL^− 1) from February to May. The disappearance of Prochlorococcus from spring through summer is likely related to shifts in the prevailing current regime. The maximum total abundance of picophytoplankton was consistently found in late summer–early autumn. Mean photic-layer picoplanktonic chlorophyll a ranged from 0.06 to 0.53 µg L^− 1 with a relatively high mean contribution to total values (33 ± 2% SE), showing maxima around autumn and minima in spring. Biomass (range 0.58–40.16 mg C m^− 3) was generally dominated by picoeukaryotes (mean ± SE, 4.28 ± 0.27 mg C m^− 3) with an average contribution of cyanobacteria of 30 ± 2%. Different seasonality of pigment and biomass values resulted in a clear temporal pattern of picophytoplanktonic carbon to chlorophyll a ratio, which ranged from 10 (winter) to 140 (summer). This study highlights the important contribution of picoplanktonic chlorophyll a and carbon biomass in this coastal ecosystem.     

Eddies around Madagascar — The retroflection re-considered

The Agulhas Current with its retroflection and attendant eddy-shedding is the cause of some of the greatest mesoscale variability in the ocean. This paper considers the area to the south and east of Madagascar, which provides some of the source waters of the Agulhas Current, and examines the propagating sea surface height signals in altimetry and output from a numerical model, OCCAM. Both show bands of variability along the axis of the East Madagascar Current (EMC) and along a zonal band near 25°S. Sequences of images plus associated temperature data suggest that a number of westward-propagating eddies are present in this zonal band. The paper then focuses on the region to the south of the island, where ocean colour and infra-red imagery are evocative of an East Madagascar Retroflection. The synthesis of data analysed in this paper, however, shows that remotely observed features in this area can be explained by anticyclonic eddies moving westward through the region, and this explanation is consistent with numerical model output and the trajectories of drifting buoys.     

100-years-changes in the phytoplankton community of Kiel Bight (Baltic Sea)

Literature data from 1905/06, 1912/13 and 1949/50 were compared with recent data (2001–2003) from Kiel Bight in order to investigate changes in phytoplankton composition and biomass, which may serve as indicators of environmental changes. In terms of biomass, diatomophyceae and dinophyceae are by far the most important groups. Their ratio is still close to unity. The share of diatomophyceae increased strongly in years with exceptionally high summer blooms (2001) or exceptionally early spring blooms (2003). The summer and autumn blooms of Chaetoceros and Skeletonema, detected in the early 20th century, are replaced by other diatoms (Cerataulina pelagica, Dactyliosolen fragilissimus, Proboscia alata, Pseudo-nitzschia spp.). Chaetoceros and Skeletonema are still important components of the spring blooms. Now as before, the autumn blooms are dominated by Ceratium spp., sometimes also by diatoms. Newly appearing bloom-forming species are mostly potentially toxic (Dictyocha speculum, Prorocentrum minimum, Pseudo-nitzschia spp.). The total phytoplankton biomass has roughly doubled in the course of the last century. The reference condition for phytoplankton biomass in Kiel Bight in the sense of the Water Framework Directive was defined at 55 mg C m^− 3 (± 10%, annual mean). The mean annual biomass of diatomophyceae and dinophyceae was 25 mg C m^− 3 (± 40%) for each, indicating that the sum of their carbon biomass amounted to 90% (± 10%) of the total phytoplankton biomass on an annual average. Diatomophyceae represented at least 80% of carbon biomass in the spring bloom peak at the beginning of the 20th century.     

Do observations adequately resolve the natural variability of oceanic turbulence?

Especially in high Reynolds number, naturally-occurring flows, turbulence is a highly variable process. It is challenging to measure yet it is vital that we do so in order to quantify the internal transports of mass, nutrients, energy and momentum. Isolated turbulence profiles are difficult to interpret; systematic sampling and subsequent averaging are necessary. Confidence in our ability to properly sample turbulence arises from intergroup comparisons, comparisons with other methods to assess mixing coefficients and, most fundamentally, the constraints imposed by the governing fluid dynamics on both energy losses via viscous dissipation caused by turbulence and on the mixing that results from turbulence. Several examples in which fluid processes have been isolated from the full range of oceanic motions are reviewed in this light. These examples show how observationally-derived estimates of turbulence dissipation or mixing are consistent with larger scale constraints. The larger oceanographic problem of defining the full geographic variability of mixing remains.     

Influence of the Mackenzie River plume on the sinking export of particulate material on the shelf

We examined the influence of the Mackenzie River plume on sinking fluxes of particulate organic and inorganic material on the Mackenzie Shelf, Canadian Arctic. Short-term particle interceptor traps were deployed under the halocline at 3 stations across the shelf during fall 2002 and at 3 stations along the shelf edge during summer 2004. During the two sampling periods, the horizontal patterns in sinking fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and chlorophyll a (chl a) paralleled those in chl a biomass within the plume. Highest sinking fluxes of particulate organic material occurred at stations strongly influenced by the river plume (maximum POC sinking fluxes at 25 m of 98 mg C m^− 2 d^− 1 and 197 mg C m^− 2 d^− 1 in 2002 and 2004, respectively). The biogeochemical composition of the sinking material varied seasonally with phytoplankton and fecal pellets contributing considerably to the sinking flux in summer, while amorphous detritus dominated in the fall. Also, the sinking phytoplankton assemblage showed a seasonal succession from a dominance of diatoms in summer to flagellates and dinoflagellates in the fall. The presence of the freshwater diatom Eunotia sp. in the sinking assemblage directly underneath the river plume indicates the contribution of a phytoplankton community carried by the plume to the sinking export of organic material. Yet, increasing chl a and BioSi sinking fluxes with depth indicated an export of phytoplankton from the water column below the river plume during summer and fall. Grazing activity, mostly by copepods, and to a lesser extent by appendicularians, appeared to occur in a well-defined stratum underneath the river plume, particularly during summer. These results show that the Mackenzie River influences the magnitude and composition of the sinking material on the shelf in summer and fall, but does not constitute the only source of material sinking to depth at stations influenced by the river plume.     

Influence of local and external processes on the annual nitrogen cycle and primary productivity on Georges Bank: A 3-D biological–physical modeling study

Georges Bank is one of the world's most highly productive marine areas, but the mechanisms of nutrient supply to support such high productivity remain poorly understood. Intrusions of nutrient-poor Labrador Slope Water (LSW) into the Gulf of Maine (NAO-dependent) potentially can reduce nutrient delivery to the bank, but this mechanism has not been quantitatively examined. In this paper, we present the first whole-year continuous model simulation results using a biological–physical model developed for the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank region. This high-resolution three-dimensional coupled model consists of the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM) and a Nitrogen–Phytoplankton–Zooplankton–Detritus (NPZD) model, and was used to examine the influences of local and external processes on nitrogen and phytoplankton dynamics on Georges Bank. The model captured the general pattern of spatial-temporal distributions of nitrogen and phytoplankton and provided a diagnostic analysis of different processes that control nitrogen fluxes on Georges Bank. Specifically, numerical experiments were conducted to examine seasonal variation in nitrogen transport into the central bank (new nitrogen supply) versus nitrogen regenerated internally in this region. Compared with previous observation-based studies, the model provided a quantitative estimate of nitrogen flux by integrating the transport over a longer time period and a complete spatial domain. The results suggest that, during summer months, internal nitrogen regeneration is the major nitrogen source for primary production on the central bank, while nitrogen supply through physical transport (e.g. tidal pumping) contributes about 1/5 of the total nitrogen demand, with an estimated on-bank nitrogen transport at least 50% less than previous estimates. By comparing the model runs using different nitrogen concentrations in deep Slope Water, the potential influence of NAO-dependent intrusions of LSW was examined. The results suggest that the change of nitrogen concentration in the deep Slope Water may not have a significant impact on nitrogen and phytoplankton dynamics on the well-mixed central bank, largely due to limited nutrient exchange across the tidal mixing front and enhanced near-frontal nutrient uptake. However, relatively more significant impact was observed in the model simulations if both well-mixed and seasonally-stratified areas (inside 100 m isobath of the bank) were considered in flux calculations.     

Investigation of model and parameter uncertainty in water quality models using a random walk method

A mathematical model to predict the effect of chemical spills in the Forth estuary in Scotland has been in use for many years. The model, based on the random walk method, predicts chemical concentrations in the estuary waters and estimates the elapsed time before the dilution is sufficient to render the spill harmless (making use of a toxicity measure such as the LC50 or a water quality standard). The model gives a deterministic result without any estimate of the uncertainty. Field studies using tracer dyes to measure the horizontal and vertical mixing rates in the estuary show that these rates vary over time. The literature on turbulent diffusion includes modelling applications using different parameterisations of the mixing process. This paper investigates the uncertainties in predicted concentrations due to model parameterisation of horizontal mixing and due to the variability in the measured mixing rates determined from surveys in the estuary. Estimates of the range of concentrations for a specific spill scenario are presented.The study shows that model formulation and parameter uncertainty are both important factors in estimating the uncertainty in model predictions. The uncertainty caused by the variations with time found in the measured mixing rates is found to be of similar magnitude to the differences in concentration resulting from using three different methods for modelling the horizontal mixing in the estuary. Uncertainties associated with model formulation could be reduced if a small number of longer timescale (e.g. 24 h) dispersion experiments were available. In addition, further data from short-term (3 h) dispersion experiments would give a better understanding of the distribution of mixing coefficients and how the mixing relates to other parameters such as tidal range and wind speed and direction.     

Long-term sea surface temperature baselines—time series, spatial covariation and implications for biological processes

Coastal areas such as estuaries, bays and fjords usually have hydrographic characteristics (e.g., temperature, salinity) which differ from those at larger spatial scales and in offshore areas. The differences can arise if the areas are subject to different climatic forcing or if they are relatively isolated from each other due to topographic and ocean circulation features which inhibit advective inputs of water mass properties. Local differences in hydrographic conditions can therefore potentially limit the applicability of existing long time series of coastally monitored temperatures for addressing questions at large spatial scales, such as the response of species distributions and phenologies to climate change. In this study we investigate the spatial synchrony of long-term sea surface temperatures in the North Sea–Baltic Sea region as measured daily at four coastal sites (Marsdiep, Netherlands; Torungen, Norway; Skagens Reef, Denmark; and Christiansø, Denmark) and in several large offshore areas. All time series, including two series reconstructed and intercalibrated for this study (Skagens Reef and Christiansø, Denmark), began during 1861–1880 and continue until at least 2001. Temperatures at coastal sites co-varied strongly with each other and with opportunistically measured offshore temperatures despite separation distances between measuring locations of 20–1200 km. This covariance is probably due to the influence of large-scale atmospheric processes on regional temperatures and is consistent with the known correlation radius of atmospheric fluctuations (ca. 1000 km). Differences (e. g, long-term trends, amplitude of seasonal variations) between coastal temperatures and those measured in adjacent offshore areas varied nonrandomly over time and were often significantly autocorrelated up to 2 years. These differences suggest that spatial variations in physical oceanographic phenomena and sampling heterogeneities associated with opportunistic sampling could affect perceptions of biological responses to temperature fluctuations. The documentation that the coastally measured temperatures co-vary with those measured opportunistically in offshore areas suggests that the coastal data, which have been measured daily using standardized methods and instruments, contain much of the variability seen at larger spatial scales. We conclude that both types of time series can facilitate assessments of how species and ecosystems have responded to past temperature changes and how they may react to future temperature changes.     

Error quantification of a high resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part3, validation with Continuous Plankton Recorder data

Data collected during the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey has been used to validate a three-dimensional hydrodynamic ecosystem model simulation of the North-west European Shelf for the years 1988–89. The CPR time series is unique to the North Atlantic region as a validation tool. Data were extracted from the model to correspond with those collected by the CPR survey, and both the model and survey plankton data were standardised to allow the comparison of model biomass with survey counts. Simple linear regression and absolute error maps provide a qualitative evaluation of spatio-temporal model performance of simulated diatoms, flagellates, total phytoplankton and omnivorous mesozooplankton. Comparisons of z-scores indicate that the model reproduces the main pelagic seasonal features, and there is good correlation between magnitudes of these features with respect to standard deviations from a long-term mean. The model is replicating up to 62% of the mesozooplankton seasonality across the domain, with variable results for the phytoplankton. There are, however, differences in the timing of patterns in plankton seasonality. The validation exercise has highlighted that the spring diatom bloom in the model is too early, suggesting the need to reparameterise the response of phytoplankton to changing light levels in the model. Errors in the north and west of the domain imply that model turbulence and vertical density structure need to be improved to more accurately capture plankton dynamics.