中日航线运价再度探底

在货运旺季到来及交通部等有关部门对中日肮线市场秩序整顿的双重作用下，10月中下旬开始摆脱“负运价”、“零运价”的中日肮线，近日再现跌势，上海至日本关西、关东由最高点的320美元／箱渐趋回落到20美元／箱，跌幅达90％以上，甚至出现了至关西1美元／箱、至关东15美元／箱的现象。据业内人士分析，中日肮线好景不长，运价恢复性上升仅10多天就渐趋回落，主要原因在于肮线新增运力的加快投入，如近期有2艘800标箱集装箱船分别开通上海至关西、关东航线，使本已饱和的中日肮线市场变得更加“粥少僧多”。眼下虽还处于货运旺季，但船公司为争夺货源又不惜竞相杀价。在政府有关部门正着力整顿运输市场秩序的当口，此类恶性竞争值得高度关注和深思。     

负运价的惩与罚

2007年底,面对中日航运市场日益加剧的无序竞争,交通部再次重拳出击,对安通国际株式会社等四家违规经营公司进行了处罚。从行政罚款到限制航班数量直至取消运输资格,交通部第一次以罚款以外的行政手段整顿和规范中日航线市场秩序。然而,仍然有班轮公司对此表示怀疑,行政手段能否从源头上解决中日航线竞争惨烈的现状？     

关于中日集装箱运价持续低迷的思考

本文从中日集装箱运输市场目前存在的主要问题--运价低迷出发,探讨其产生的原因及在低运价下班轮企业的获利模式,并对如何稳定运价提出政策建议.     

关于《中日航线市场运价自律协议》的几点思考

自９０年代初以来，中国的国际海运运价已经全面放开，航运企业作为市场主体，根据市场规律和供需平衡原则自主制定运价，我国国际航运市场业已在整体上形成符合经济规律的运价调节机制，国际航运市场的开放程度也已经达到了中等发达国家水平。然而，在去年９月１３日，中远集运等９家经营上海至日本航线的班轮公司和宁波远洋运输公司等５家经营宁波至日本航线的班轮公司，在上海航运交易所却签订了《中日航线市场运价自律协议》（以下简称《自律协议》）。尽管该协议在一定程度上可以起到遏止恶性价格竞争的作用，但是我们却必须注意到其事…     

数条航线“红海”操戈 班轮船东力遏负运价

运价大战再度烽火燃起。今年上半年以来,国际班轮业持续不断的杀价声由中日航线快速扩散、弥漫到中韩、台湾以及东南亚航线,在外需不振、出口严重下滑、市场深陷低迷的严峻形势下,运价一路走低,以致"零运价"、"负运价"盛行,最低超出-300美元则成为今年以来班轮市场最为惨淡的景象。"负运价"、"零运价"大行其道中日航线绵延多年的运价大战曾是人所共知的事实。但在全球航运遭遇金     

中日航线：船东自律下的市场救渎

“运价大战”已在中日航线硝烟散尽。船东依靠理性与行业自律构筑起遏制恶性竞争的市场底线。     

中日集装箱运输市场负运价探讨

来自上海航交所2008年3月14日信息，中日集装箱航线运价再次逼近零运价，这是最近几年我国出口日本集装箱班轮航线海运费连创新低的延续。本文在这一背景下对中日航线集装箱运输市场的负运价问题进行了研究。首先，论述中日航线贸易及集装箱运输市场概况，其次对中日航线状况进行了分析论证。在此基础上，作者从中日航线运力和运量关系、中日航线单箱收入和成本、班轮公司间的决策行为、行业协会协调行为、政府行为等五个方面对中日航线集装箱市场出现负运价的现象进行了分析论证。最后，作者从完善执行运价报备制度、加强行业协会的协调功能、规范市场秩序三个方面提出了平稳运价的对策和建议。     

Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?

Since paper freight-hedging tools were introduced to counter volatile tanker freight rates, the hesitant uptake of tanker Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) has been attributed to traditional risk seeking propensities amongst tanker owners, naturally reluctant to hedge against risk. To test how far the well-documented generic determinants and incentives for corporate hedging could explain this hesitation in the tanker market, the attitudes of tanker owners and charterers towards freight hedging, risk and perceptions of FFAs, were surveyed. Although FFAs were widely viewed as an important development, some respondents were unaware of their function and a majority had not used them. The link between freight hedging activity and participants' risk aversion was not clear-cut, but with market liquidity critical to raising FFA usage improved technical education is essential to widespread acceptance     

Cooperation among freight forwarders: Mode choice and intermodal freight transport

The objective of this paper is to compare vertical and horizontal cooperation among freight forwarders. The paper analyses three freight forwarders (‘players’) with two different means of transportation. The first two players are truck-operating freight forwarders. The third player is a freight forwarder with its own ship. For the purposes of analysis, the paper applied a two-stage game. The results revealed that the best form of cooperation is the one in which the large truck-operating company would establish a coalition with the ship-operating company; that is, vertical cooperation. This cooperation would generate better payoffs in the form of profit, not only to the members of this coalition, but also to the player that has not joined the coalition. However, user surplus is negative in all coalitions, which shows that the establishment of these kinds of cooperation is not beneficial (in terms of prices) for the users of these service providers.     

Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence

In an industry that is characterized by highly volatile prices, seasonality, strong business cycles, cyclicality and capital intensiveness, risk management is extremely important. Ship-owners and charterers face enormous risks, which emanate from fluctuations in freight rates, bunker prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and vessel values. These risks substantially affect the interplay between revenue and cost. Modern risk management techniques, involve the use of financial derivatives products, some of which have been developed exclusively for protecting (hedging) against the adverse price fluctuations of the aforementioned sources of risk in shipping. By using derivatives products, ship-owners and charterers can secure (stabilize) the level of their future income or costs and thus reduce uncertainty and unforeseen volatility of their cash-flow. To explore the importance of hedging freight rate risk in shipping operations, a survey of recent empirical evidence that has appeared in economic studies has been conducted. Developments over the past 20 years have been fast, with certain amount of research carried, which has helped to understand better the special features of these derivatives markets. They are all summarized in the current study, which can provide the stepping stone for further work in the area of shipping derivatives and risk management in shipping.     

Shipping freight derivatives: a survey of recent evidence

In an industry that is characterized by highly volatile prices, seasonality, strong business cycles, cyclicality and capital intensiveness, risk management is extremely important. Ship-owners and charterers face enormous risks, which emanate from fluctuations in freight rates, bunker prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and vessel values. These risks substantially affect the interplay between revenue and cost. Modern risk management techniques, involve the use of financial derivatives products, some of which have been developed exclusively for protecting (hedging) against the adverse price fluctuations of the aforementioned sources of risk in shipping. By using derivatives products, ship-owners and charterers can secure (stabilize) the level of their future income or costs and thus reduce uncertainty and unforeseen volatility of their cash-flow. To explore the importance of hedging freight rate risk in shipping operations, a survey of recent empirical evidence that has appeared in economic studies has been conducted. Developments over the past 20 years have been fast, with certain amount of research carried, which has helped to understand better the special features of these derivatives markets. They are all summarized in the current study, which can provide the stepping stone for further work in the area of shipping derivatives and risk management in shipping.     

Predicting freight flows in a globalising world

In this paper we suggest a methodology to predict commodity specific transportation flows that brings together data in value and in quantity terms in a consistent way. The approach is based on the modern gravity formulation. There are three driving forces of the transport flows dynamics: economic growth, the ongoing globalization (reduction of trade barriers), and the changing commodity composition of trade, whereby the evolution of value-to-weight ratios is explicitly taken into account. The methodology is applied to forecast the interregional trade flows in Europe.     

集装箱运费远期交易的发展现状和前景

<正>1发展现状随着国际贸易量的增长和集装箱运输的发展,航运市场产生的运费总额日益宠大,运价波动带来的风险也日益上升。目前我国外贸集装箱航线的运费收入已达上百亿美元,运价每波动1%,运费收入就增减上亿美元。     

2008年班轮运价或将“水涨船高”

临近岁末，盘点收获、展望来年，已是一道回避不去的“例菜”。A．P．穆勒一马士基集团执行副总裁苏恩深坚定地认为，正确的预测是行业稳定的关键。在刚结束的“国际海运（中国）年会2007”上，这位大牌“航运界明星”还颇有寓意地援引《集装箱航运经理人》中的一段话来告诫业内：“集装箱行业有许多智者，但在面临压力时，这种智慧往往用得不是地方，从而造成恐慌并犯下了错误。”     

Directness as a key performance indicator for freight transport chains

From the perspective of a transport service buyer and at the abstraction level of material flows, all transports travel directly from product supplier to product customer. In reality, however, the directness of transport services depends on factors such as geography, available infrastructure, temporary conditions, shippers' qualitative preferences, the economy of and practical possibilities for consolidation and access to return flows. This work examines directness by structuring and elaborating upon the causes of freight transport detours and briefly analysing their effect. The article also includes a discussion about the prospects of capturing directness in a KPI, and how such a measure can be designed, measured, monitored and used, as well as a brief analysis of the consequences of using it for monitoring and controlling supply chain performance.     

库克船长 远航探险如一场游戏

航海是人类在海上航行，跨越海洋，由一方陆地去到另一方陆地的活动。由于人类的地理知识有限，在从前是一种冒险行为。在现代科技发展的今天，航海也是一种风险很高的职业，危险时时相伴，尽管这样，每一条航线，都是航海前辈一海里一海里航行积累而成的。库克船长就是航海界的一位杰出代表，尽管当年他航海探险多带有殖民主义特色，但就航海本身来说，他留给后人的是宝贵的经验和资料。     

超能力运行下港区内集装箱码头的博弈*

以上海外高桥港区集装箱码头为背景,构建超能力运行下同一港区内不同集装箱码头之间的博弈模型,通过逆向归纳法分析求解均衡收费和联盟利润,研究发现:与竞争博弈相比,集装箱码头联盟方都能收取相同并且较高的码头费用,其中部分联盟时联盟方的市场份额均为下降,而非联盟方的均衡收费、市场份额和利润均呈增加趋势。与完全联盟相比,部分联盟时联盟方收取的码头费用、市场份额和联盟利润皆为下降;非联盟方的均衡收费和利润也大幅降低,但市场份额却大幅增加,即同一港区集装箱码头博弈中真正的赢家是非联盟集装箱码头。