Vertical evacuation in hurricanes: An urgent policy problem for coastal managers

Abstract

Evacuation inland ("horizontal evacuation") is the traditional method of saving life in areas forecast as the site of hurricane landfall. But “high confidence”; warning time is only 12 hours, while some coastal areas are now so densely populated that twice that time is required for evacuation. Coastal managers must therefore risk the ire of local citizens “unnecessarily”; evacuated early, and the associated risk that several false alarms will reduce citizen compliance, or the risk that evacuation will be too long delayed.

The alternative of vertical evacuation (going upstairs in hurricane‐proof buildings) is resisted by planners who are concerned that its risks are too high and that partial acceptance of the concept would vitiate compliance with the horizontal component. But in some areas there may no longer be a choice: prudent coastal managers must determine the potential need and capability for vertical evacuation in their areas. Effective integration of both vertical and horizontal evacuation will require development of new plans and policies.     

Coming Soon to a Fjord Near You: Future Jellyfish Scenarios in a Changing Climate

Over the last decades, a dense population of the deep-sea/oceanic scyphozoan jellyfish Periphylla periphylla has established itself as top predator in the Trondheimsfjord in Norway, which has caused the traditional fisheries in this fjord to suffer. This was, however, not the first fjord this jellyfish invaded, and data suggest that it will not be the last one, either. With warmer temperatures, the jellyfish is moving northward in Norway, but not all fjords are created equal, and it is not thriving or taking up residence just anywhere. The current article explores three fjords in which Periphylla periphylla has become the top predator and outcompeted former ones. The main question of interest is why the jellyfish becomes dominant in one fjord and not another. The next question is which other Norwegian fjords further north exist with similar characteristics where we therefore would expect Periphylla periphylla to proliferate in the future. The latter is important from a policy and adaptation perspective for the local community of people, since the proliferation of the species unmistakably leads to fewer fish for commercial harvest and potentially less attractive waters for tourism purposes. Results show that three northern fjords, the Skjerstadfjorden the Holandsfjorden, and Stordjupna in the Vestfjord appear to be particularly vulnerable to a future Periphylla periphylla invasion.     

Facts,Fictions, and Failures of Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Europe

Nearly 40 years on since its first tentative steps in North America, this article considers whether Integrated Zone Coastal Management (ICZM) in Europe has grown to maturity as a form of governance. The article summarizes the findings of recent research concerning the levels of implementation of coastal management in Europe, with particular reference to the UK experience. A research framework is used to identify the different motivations behind the social actor groups involved in coastal management. The application of this framework reveals four major findings about gaps in implementation: (1) the complexity of responsibilities at the coast continues to prevent agencies from taking a “joined-up” approach; (2) a policy vacuum is constraining implementation from national to local scales; (3) informational obstacles are significant in preventing co-ordination between science and policymakers, and between different sectors; (4) a democratic deficit is preventing implementation in the working practices of coastal stakeholders, with little opportunity in decision making for public comment or local accountability, especially offshore. The article also explores different conceptualizations of the role of coastal management and planning held across Europe, providing an analysis using the Strategic Management literature and the experience of the EU Demonstration Programme on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (1996–1999). Recent arrangements, with the availability of priming funds from the European Commission and emphasis on “pilot” and “demonstration” methods, have tended to encourage a project-based approach to ICZM that may fail to realize long-term objectives. The article seeks to present an analysis of the behaviors of scientists, academics, policymakers, and practitioners, and will be of interest to all those seeking to establish ICZM within the wider system of governance, as supported by the Commission of the European Community (2000) Communication on ICZM (COM 547). Some technical solutions are also offered from the UK experience that will be of use to coastal project officers working at national and regional levels.     

Integrating visual management into the coastal zone planning process: The Massachusetts experience

Abstract

This paper concerns the limitations on integrating visual management into the coastal zone planning process as exemplified by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, a state with a strong tradition of “home rule”; and a CZM implementation program based on a “networking”; of existing state authorities. The implications of the Massachusetts experience are that: (a) management of esthetic resources at the state level continues to be much less of a priority than management of ecological resources such as wetlands or floodplains; (b) visual management has yet to engender a strongly supportive constituency beyond that concerned with historic preservation; (c) project review focusing on visual impacts may be a more appropriate activity for local rather than state government; and (d) the technical aspects of visual management or impact assessment are far more advanced than their political acceptability. Political realities, together with the decision that implementation of the program should be based on a networking of existing authorities, thus determined the degree to which visual management could be incorporated into the state's program. As a result, the program's principal instruments of visual management became a strengthening of existing programs such as Wild and Scenic Rivers, reliance on wetland protection statutes to indirectly protect natural scenic values, and the use of the federal consistency provisions of the Coastal Zone Management Act to foster focused growth patterns through provision of publicly funded infrastructures. Esthetically oriented project review, with the exception of potential impacts on historic sites, was left to the discretion of local government, and a technical assistance program was created to provide funding or professional skills to communities interested in developing their own esthetic controls or design review processes. Maine, Rhode Island, and other New England states have followed a similar course.     

How to Retreat: The Necessary Transition from Buyouts to Leasing

Abstract

Moving assets out of vulnerable areas, known as “retreat,” is a necessary but unpopular option when coastal hazards impact land. Most people prefer protection options. Governments and private land owners tend to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach for retreat. This may be because the time for retreat seems some way off, or because protection has not yet been ruled out, or to avoid unwelcome news. This policy void has allowed people to assume that government will offer to “buyout” property on generous terms after coastal hazards inevitably force the owner to relocate. The problem with that assumption is that (a) it is unaffordable as a solution for all at-risk properties and (b) it acts as an incentive to intensify development in locations vulnerable to coastal hazards. It is, in effect, a form of market distortion which promotes maladaptive behavior. We therefore need to retire that assumption by articulating a standard default arrangement for retreat. This essay suggests that government should establish a default position of renting land, rather than acquiring it, once assets are abandoned by private land owners. This provides sufficient leverage to protect the public interest and a level of financial assistance to the relocating land owner, while allowing markets to properly reflect risk and enabling coastal adaptation.     

Adaptation Pathways in Coastal Case Studies: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

Climate change adaptation presents a difficult challenge for coastal towns around the world, forcing local governments to plan for sea level rise in a contentious decision-making space. The concept of “adaptation pathways,” a diagnostic and analytical tool to assist in adaptive planning and decision-making, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. It provides decisionmakers a way to acknowledge the inter-temporal complexities and uncertainties associated with the novel dynamics of climate change and a mechanism to manage these challenges in the local context. In 2012, the Australian Government funded an 18-month program to provide decisionmakers in the coastal zone an opportunity to test the utility of the adaptation pathways concept for coastal climate adaptation. Using a selection of completed projects as case studies, we performed a document analysis to better understand the learnings from the projects. The main themes surrounded: (1) the utility of the adaptation pathway framework in developing options, (2) decision-making rationale and criteria, and (3) stakeholder participation in pathway development. A project participant survey was developed to further understand these themes. Our analysis reveals that “adaptation pathways” was generally framed narrowly and conservatively to emphasize extant economic, administrative and legal considerations over community, participatory, or exploratory ones. Although some case study projects were able to reach a point in the pathway discussion to actively involve stakeholders in their decision-making process, many case studies continued to build technical data as a method for defending policies and actions. These results indicate that coastal adaptation can take-up adaptation pathways as a useful concept for decision-making and planning; however, many councils may still require assistance in stakeholder communication processes in order to develop sociallyacceptable plans that take into account the full range of values affecting local coastal environments.     

Community Participation in Marine Protected Area Implementation: A Case Study of the Sitka Local Area Management Plan

This article has two goals: (1) to consider the underlying semantic confusion surrounding the promotion of “social science” in the design and establishment of marine protected areas and (2) to demonstrate the successful community processes that led to the designation of Sitka, Alaska's Local Area Management Plan (LAMP) for halibut fishing in the vicinity of Sitka. Uniting a collection of diverse “social” issues creates ambiguity in actual problem solving—extensive generalization can not resolve a specific issue. The Sitka LAMP is a specific case with clear details and a traceable history of success, designed to sustain the healthy status of Sitka's local halibut resource. The development of the Sitka LAMP designation demonstrates the importance of community collaboration and exhibits methods that could potentially be modeled in other locations.     

SCF equations in multi-planar welded tubular DT-joints including bending effects

Welded tubular connections exhibit significant stress concentrations at the weld vicinity, which may result in fatigue failure. Stress concentration factors (SCFs) in DT-joint are computed, based on an extensive finite element study. The present paper develops a methodology for the calculation of the maximum local stress, referred to as “hot-spot stress”, in a multi-planar DT-joint, with particular emphasis on the effects of bending moments on the braces and the chord. Special attention is focussed on the location where critical stress concentration occurs, as well as on the so-called “carry-over phenomenon” and its implications on the hot-spot stress value. Simplified design equations for fatigue design are proposed to determine SCF values due to bending in order to improve predictions with respect to existing design tools.     

船舶网络安全领域主要国际标准分析

为了提升网络安全管理水平,增强风险防范意识,国际海事组织(IMO)提出将波罗的海航运公会(BIMCO)发布的《网络安全指南》、国际标准化组织(ISO)和国际电工组织(IEC)发布的ISO/IEC 27001《信息安全管理系统》系列和美国国家标准研究院(NIST)发布的《提升关键基础设施网络安全框架》等文件纳入参考的建议...     

Marine Protected Area Costs as “Beneficial” Fisheries Subsidies: A Global Evaluation

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are now generally accepted as important tools in the protection of coastal biodiversity. It is also likely that they play a positive role in enhancing fisheries. Yet currently, less than 1% of the global oceans are protected, although international agreements have targets ranging from 10–30% coverage. Despite its minuscule size, we consider the current MPA “network” to be beneficial to fisheries, and its running or maintenance cost, therefore, to be a positive contribution to the sustainability of fisheries, or a “beneficial” subsidy (“harmful” subsidies enhance fishing capacity and effort). A method was derived from data in Balmford et al. (PNAS, 101: 9694–9697) to estimate the annual cost of maintaining MPAs as a function of their size, and of the degree of development of the country in question. We provide national costs of the 53 countries that jointly contribute 95% of global fisheries catch and, assuming that this type of subsidy, in a given country, cannot exceed 15% of the ex-vessel value of its fisheries catches, estimated a global MPA subsidy to fisheries of 870 million US$. Given that total subsidies to fisheries currently range from 30–34 billion US$ annually (without MPA costs), this amounts to only 2.5–2.8% of total subsidies to fisheries being devoted explicitly to the maintenance of the biodiversity that sustains them.     

Design of bridges against ship collisions

The paper outlines a rational design procedure for bridge piers and pylons against ship collision impacts. Firstly, a set of risk acceptance criteria are proposed. This is followed by a mathematically based procedure for calculation of the probability of critical ship meeting situations near the bridge, and the probability of ship collision accidents caused by human errors as well as technical errors. This first part of the paper leads to identification of the largest striking ship, “design vessels”, a given bridge pier must withstand without structural failure in order for the bridge connection to fulfil the risk acceptance criteria. The final part of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the needed impact capacity for the bridge pylons and piers exposed to ship bow impact loads from these “design vessels”. For a number of different ship types and different tonnage merchant vessels, load – displacement relations for ship bow collisions against rigid walls are derived. Based on these comprehensive numerical results, a new empirical relation is derived which is suited for design against bow collisions. This expression for maximum bow collision forces is compared with a previously published expression for ice-strengthened ships and with existing standards for assessment of bow crushing forces. It is shown that there is need for an update of these existing standards. For design of piers and pylons against local impact pressure loads, a pressure - area relation for bulbous bow impacts is derived.     

Planning for resilient coastal communities: Lessons from ecological systems theory

Abstract

One of the least understood aspects of coastal zone utilization is how communities respond and adapt to changes occurring in the marine environment and to changes which transform the socioeconomic, political, and administrative environment of the coastal zone. In Atlantic Canada, it is estimated that there are some 1,300 “fishing communities,”; yet these communities vary considerably in terms of population size, proximity to urban centers, and dependence upon the local resource base to provide employment opportunities and alternatives. Although numerous government planning documents have purported to support “community revitalization”; and “self‐sufficiency/self‐reliance,”; few inquiries have been directed toward ascertaining how communities have maintained resiliency in the face of unexpected and sudden shock, or have adapted to more gradual change. This essay argues that human communities and ecological systems may have similar attributes, and that appropriate resource development and management planning should take account of these traits as well as the sustaining structural support mechanisms.     

Island Villagers’ Willingness to Work or Pay for Sustainability of a Marine Fishery Reserve: Case of San Miguel Island,Philippines

Establishment of marine reserves or marine protected areas (MPAs) has emerged as a major coastal resource management tool in the Philippines. A major sustainability constraint is the enforcement of MPA and fisheries regulations. We contribute to the literature of using stated preference methods to investigate the local residents’ willingness to work (WTW) and willingness to pay (WTP) for the continued existence of the San Miguel Island (SMI) fishery reserve in Bicol Region, Philippines. We surveyed 435 respondents in three villages. The lower-bound mean WTW is 3.5 days/mo for residents in the “owner” village and 1.9 days/mo for residents in adjacent villages. Using a fraction of mean daily income to impute the monetary equivalent of WTW, the result is more than 3 times higher than the Php16 to 25/mo (US$0.34 to 0.75/mo) estimated mean WTP. We hypothesize that labor market in this rural village is incomplete so residents have stronger preference for money than for time. However, further investigation on the opportunity cost of time and understanding the labor market is warranted when using WTW in a valuation framework. Some policy implications are: (1) considering use of voluntary labor as management option for MPAs and (2) establishing “own village” MPAs may increase residents’ conservation value.     

Management control systems and performance: evidence from the Greek shipping industry

This study explores how Management Control Systems (MCS) enhance the performance of shipping companies. Based on data collected from semi-structured interviews, MCS are distinguished in three categories according to the purposes they fulfill: “Basic MCS” are implemented in order to set standards and support basic operations of the business, “Cost MCS” collect information about cost minimization while “External Information MCS” focus on compliance with the requirement of the cargo owners. Furthermore, evidence collected through a survey instrument addressed to shipping companies located in Greece suggests that the choice of MCS is contingent upon the strategy pursued by the shipping companies. Moreover, this paper tests whether shipping companies with an optimal fit between their strategies and their MCS experience superior business performance and a higher perceived usefulness of MCS. Results reinforce the notion that the performance of the shipping companies is contingent on the use of those control systems which are consistent with their strategies and a number of control variables such as experience of the person implemented the MCS, the size, and age of company.     

Key beliefs and attitudes for sea-level rise policy

This article reviews key measures of public opinion on sea-level rise (SLR): beliefs, attitudes, issue prioritization, and policy support. To do so, we first assess the influence of SLR beliefs and attitudes on issue prioritization and policy support using state-level data. Then, we compare the state findings to other surveys conducted in a hot spot of rising coastal waters, the U.S. Mid-Atlantic, to better understand the landscape of public opinion. Our findings indicate that, as in studies of climate change public opinion, belief certainty that SLR is happening and attitudes about its consequences significantly influence issue prioritization and policy support. Compared to climate change, SLR demonstrates less salience, but is similarly a low public priority. Nevertheless, the public supports governmental policies that address the issue, preferring strategies that discourage new construction in high risk areas and employ “soft” protection through natural barriers. Among the least popular approaches are those that implement hard barriers to defend against encroaching seas. Communication programs and public consultation by governments can benefit from the use of survey data to support evidence-based decision-making.     

Evaluating air emission inventories and indicators from cruise vessels at ports

This paper provides an estimation of air emissions (CO₂, NO_X, SO_X and PM) released by cruise vessels at the port level. The methodology is based on the “full bottom-up” approach and starts by evaluating the fuel consumed by each vessel on the basis of its individual port activities (manoeuvring, berthing and hoteling). The Port of Barcelona was selected as the site at which to perform the analysis, in which 125 calls of 30 cruise vessels were monitored. Real-time data from the automatic identification system (AIS), factor emissions from engine certificates and vessel characteristics from IHS Sea-web database were also collected for the analysis. The research findings show that the most appropriate indicators are inventory emissions per “port-time gross tonnage”, “port-time passenger” and “port time”. These emission indicators improve our understanding of cruise emissions and will facilitate the work that aims to estimate reliably and quickly the in-port ship emission inventories of cruise ports.     

The Impacts of Recreational Four-Wheel Driving on the Abundance of the Ghost Crab (Ocypode cordimanus) on a Subtropical Sandy Beach in SE Queensland

There is increasing concern regarding the impacts of recreational four-wheel driving (4WDing) on sandy beach environments. The ghost crab Ocypode cordimanus is a widely distributed Australian species that utilizes beaches and dunes for constructing burrows and for foraging. Comparisons of ghost crab abundances (using burrow counts) in areas “open” and “closed” to recreational 4WDing were conducted on exposed sandy beaches on North Stradbroke Island, off the coast of southeast Queensland. Beaches where recreational 4WD activity is present had significantly lower ghost crab abundances than beaches where it is absent. The most plausible reason for this difference in abundance is that ghost crabs are highly vulnerable to being crushed by beach traffic when feeding on the beach at night. To mitigate the impacts of recreational 4WDing on ghost crab population management intervention is needed. Possible changes to the management of recreational 4WD activity include the setting aside of areas free of recreational 4WD activity for the conservation of biodiversity, or a prohibition on driving on the beaches between dusk and dawn. There is also a need for a consistent and transparent approach in Queensland for quantifying and monitoring 4WD activity in sandy beach environments.     

The impact of the Polar Code on risk mitigation in Arctic waters: a “toolbox” for underwriters?

The existing risk weighing on vessel, crew and ecosystem in the Arctic and more globally in Polar waters promoted the adoption of the Polar Code (PC) early 2017, a mandatory international legal framework intended for enhanced safety and environmental protection. While the substance of the PC has been extensively analyzed, few studies have focused on the underlying relationships between the PC and underwriters. Based on an extensive literature review, documentary materials and interviews with insurance companies, this article conceptualizes the PC as a “toolbox” and analyzes how underwriters can exploit it in their work within the emerging Arctic market. The PC does not only regulate the navigation in Arctic waters in legal terms, but is also aimed at mitigating risks in the Polar areas through the identification of hazard sources and proceduralization of risk assessment. As a result we observe a certain “Polar Code paradox”. Even though the PC is a risk-based instrument and constitutes a key step for improving ship insurability, it has only limited capacity to assist underwriters in assessing risks and insuring vessels. Marine insurers still face a lack of data and high pending uncertainties leading them to exercise extreme caution with Arctic risks appraisal.     

Recreational Use of Developed Norwegian Shorelines: How Ambiguous Regulations Influence User Experiences

In principle, public rights of access to “outfield” along the Norwegian shoreline are protected by law. A case study from the village of Saltnes indicates that it is difficult for people to stay or walk along a populated shoreline area without feeling that they are violating privacy norms. Such “mental” barriers and subjective perceptions are not formally addressed in Norwegian regulations concerning legal rights of public access, but appear to affect the extent of recreational use. Interviews with property owners and visitors in Saltnes indicated that two key elements help to improve the situation. First, physical markers demarcating public land (“outfield”) and private land (“infield”) such as vegetation, small fences, signs, boulder walls, paths, and so on seem to reduce discomfort both for visitors and residents. Second, property owners and visitors value polite behavior highly, and communication between different groups of interests seems to clarify the challenging public/private divide. A main impression was that people find present rules and regulations unclear and diffuse and difficult to practice. It is relevant to ask whether the public accessible parts of developed and populated coastal zones are identifiable through the infield–outfield divide; more specific and adapted regulation of public traffic is needed on private shoreline properties.