喧嚣的北极航道

虽然目前中国商船的北极航行之路充满艰辛,但不可否认的是,未来这条航线也孕育着无限商机。随着全球气候变暖,北极海冰加速融化,一些科学家乐观预测,在未来30年内北冰洋将出现夏季无冰期,北冰洋"黄金水道"开通成为可能。"东北航道"和"西北航道"将成为北极航线的两条主要航道。一旦这两条北极航道常年开通,将成为联系东北亚和西欧,联系北美洲东西海岸的最短航线,可以节约大约40%的海上运输成本,届时北极航线可能成为苏伊     

中国参与北极航线国际机制的障碍及对策

北极问题的焦点是北极航线权益的竞争.北极航线问题因为北冰洋的融化预期和随之而来的巨大利益,而变得愈来愈重要.中国在这一问题上不能失去话语权.而要争得北极航线问题国际机制上的主动权,更应对可能的参与障碍进行战略思考.通过对北极航线问题的重要性进行阐述的基础上,分析了我国在参与北极航线问题国际机制的可能方式,并探讨了参与北极航线问题的可能障碍,以及应采取的策略,从而为我国的北极航线问题上的利益争取提供支持.     

北极航线对我国“海运强国”的战略价值

<正>随着北极海冰的加速融化以及北极航线可利用程度的逐渐提高,北极航线在保障国家经济安全运行、拉动国家经济增长、维护国家安全和海外权益、提升国家海洋软硬实力等方面对我国"海运强国"战略的价值更加凸显北极航线是指穿过北冰洋区域,连接太平洋和大西洋的海上航线,主要包括东北航线和西北航线。在全球变暖的趋势下,北极气温上升、冰层融化,这使得北极航线开通的可能性越来越大。随着北极海冰的逐渐消融,北极航线的商业价值受到世界各国的广泛关注。2009年,德     

中国的北极航线机会和威胁分析

北极问题的焦点是北极航线权益的竞争.北极航线问题因为北冰洋的融化预期和随之而来的巨大利益而变得愈来愈重要.在分析北极航线问题的重要性的基础上,分析了中国开辟北极航线的机会和威胁.机会主要表现在北极航线的开辟能够降低我国企业的物流成本、北极航线具有巨大旅游价值、亚洲的高纬度港口将成为新的国际航运中心等方面;威胁主要表现在北极航线的价值属于资源拥有者、我国企业面对的竞争将更加激烈、中国的南北方经济将会受到不同影响等方面.进而提出了中国应采取的国家战略,并从中国航运企业的角度提出应对策略.     

北极航线开辟对世界航运格局的影响

伴随着全球气温逐步上升,北冰洋海冰持续消融,北极航线的开辟逐渐成为可能,而北极航线的开辟带来的利益几乎都是国际性的,所以北极航线的开通必然会给现有的世界航运格局带来一定的影响。本文首先介绍了北极航道的概况,随后对北极航道通航对世界航运的格局可能产生的影响进行分析。     

航向北极

千百年来,北极被人类一直当成"圣地"、"地球上最后一方净土"。随着冰层的消融或逐渐变薄,人类踏足北冰洋和沿岸地区的时代已提前到来,区内更多资源开发成为可能,航道开通与贸易航线开放吸引越来越多的经济活动。预计在未来数十年,人类在北极的活动将愈加频繁,亟需通过国际合作促进北极地区的科学开发与可持续发展。同时,随着更多船只往来,     

北冰洋航线通航与航海保障体系

阐述北冰洋航线开通的意义,分析北冰洋航线开通现状和存在的问题,指出北极冰加速融化将促进北冰洋航线开通。为缓解我国海上运输通道面临的安全困境,优化我国对外经贸格局,认为我国应积极参与北冰洋航线的开发利用,未雨绸缪地构建北冰洋航线的航海保障体系。     

前景诱人的北极集装箱贸易航路

<正>随着北冰洋冰量减少,北极将会成为世界贸易的新可能性区域。北极贸易路线,可以减少在途时间、燃油消耗和废气排放,从而成为一条足以替代目前其他航线的有吸引力的贸易路线。目前,这条跨越北冰洋的航线在夏末季节可以通航。一个名为"ARCON"的项目已经研究出其可能性、挑战和与此有关的从今年直至2050年新航线的风险。     

北极西北航道商业化运营依旧面临挑战

正交通运输部海事局组织编辑的中文版《北极航行指南(西北航道)2015》于近日出版发行,该指南将为计划航行北极"西北航道"的中国籍船舶提供海图、航线、海冰、气象等保障信息服务。北极"西北航道",是指从太平洋经白令海峡进入北冰洋,通过美国阿拉斯加北岸、加拿大北极群岛、格陵兰岛再进入北大西洋的航线。这条     

北极航道的商业逻辑

北冰洋的海冰继续加快融化,北极航行日渐成为现实.北极圈内的国家近水楼台,北极圈外的国家跃跃欲试.主权、资源、经济、法律、环境保护、国际治理等共同构成了北极航道开发背后的商业逻辑.单从航线开发来讲,全球航运领域更关注北冰洋商业通航后的经济效益.     

The melting Arctic and its impact on China’s maritime transport

The shrinking of Arctic ice triggers off a new round of competition and dispute in this region, among traditional Arctic states and non-Arctic actors. Like its East Asia neighbours, China sees the melting Arctic Ocean a unique opportunity for itself and international trade generally. The changing physical landscape of the Arctic region will certainly have a major impact on China’s economic future which is very dependent on international shipping. This paper assesses the impact of the ice-free Arctic on the development of marine transport industry in China. The author discusses the potential new routes with the Arctic’s melting and the opportunities that it brings to China’s maritime transportation industry. Challenges that China faces in future shipping through the Arctic will be also addressed from political, legal, economic and environmental dimensions, followed by a preliminary exploration of ways to solution of these challenges.     

Proactive environmental planning for emerging shipping routes in Arctic waters

Projected reductions in the extent and thickness of the seaice cover in the Arctic Ocean could substantially benefit shipping, perhaps opening the Arctic Ocean as a major trade route. However, despite the economic benefits of such changes, the emergence of such a route through the Arctic Ocean presents a number of challenges to Arctic coastal States and policy makers in general. Of particular concern is the potential for significant environmental damage. Historically, strong objections have been raised over restrictions on navigation for environmental purposes, on the grounds that these run counter to the freedom of navigation enshrined in international law. Notwithstanding this, a broad range of measures exist for those coastal States wishing to address the threat from shipping.     

The Arctic Shipping and Environmental Management Agreement: A Regime for Marine Pollution

Climate change is predicted to have particularly challenging impacts throughout the Arctic. For instance, there is a great probability of sea ice melting, leading to increased vessel traffic and oil pollution. Eight major nation-states have vested concerns in the potential opening of Arctic sea routes. They each have pledged to take protective action through the Arctic Council. However, there is still a need to develop an international institution to simultaneously address Arctic marine pollution and protect the needs of these states. This article seeks to design a legally binding regime for oil pollution control in the Arctic. In creating this new regime, we shall utilize several shared design elements of historically effective international regimes and take advantage of the legal innovations of these agreements. Our new regime, entitled the Arctic Shipping and Environmental Management Agreement (ASEMA), will take into account both the economic and environmental interests of the parties involved.     

Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

Arctic tanker risk analysis project

This paper summarizes the interim Phase II results of the Arctic Tanker Risk Analysis Project, which examined the risk of oil shipment by tankers in the Canadian Arctic. The objectives were to identify the hazards most likely to produce an oil spill on the MV Arctic, and to institute measures to reduce that risk. Phase I indicated that a high potential exists for a shipping accident at the terminals, the St. Lawrence River and in the High Arctic. However, environmental sensitivity was shown to be greatest along the coastal zone of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence River. Phase II involved further examination of environmental sensitivity and the task of ice navigation. These results resulted in a revised risk profile. Three spill scenarios were then designed to estimate clean-up costs and other economic impacts. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted which compared spill costs to risk mitigation. As the project enters Phase III, the scope has widened to include all product tankers operating in the Arctic. A new Canadian Standards Association Risk Management Standard Q850 is being implemented with the objective of providing prototype tanker Bridge Risk Management System software.     

Shipping operations support in the “High North”: examining availability of icebreakers along the Northern Sea Route

A rather significant number of business entities already operate within (or, have considered to exploit) the Arctic region, focusing upon previously untapped resources such as precious minerals and large quantities of oil and gas; touristic and fishing activities are clearly on the rise, with various endeavors of maritime transport also being put forward. Up until recently, harsh year-long environmental conditions have significantly hindered the necessary access and transport connections in the Arctic. Even in the case that weather conditions did permit vessels’ passage, unreliable navigational aids and lack of infrastructure/support provided obstacles difficult to overcome. However, environmental data recorded during the last couple of decades clearly indicates that there is a continuous decline of ice coverage in the “High North.” Given this steady decline, the Arctic has now been viewed as a promising field for economic activities and is considered as a potential connecting corridor between Asia and Europe/America (and vice-versa). As human presence and operations are expected to intensify there, it is of utmost importance to evaluate the current level of support towards ships that will be crossing the region; capabilities in relation to search and rescue (SAR) operations and oil spill response are also important. The analysis in hand will first deliver a discussion of the so-called Arctic Passages. While various different maritime routes have been proposed in relation to the Arctic, the most promising one, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), will provide the epicenter of discussion. Through an extensive literature review that includes numerous internet resources, the current analysis will identify the numbers of icebreakers already operating in the NSR, as well as those that will be commissioned into service in the near future. The choice to research the specific type of vessels is supported by a simple argument: icebreakers currently are and will continue to be in the foreseeable future the main “tool” to support shipping activities in the Arctic. Furthermore, emergency management capabilities in the Russian Arctic will be examined to include the current state of rescue coordination centres along with the availability of SAR assets. Additionally, the efforts thus far by the Arctic Council to increase coordination and interaction among the States involved in Arctic affairs will be summarized; the latter will be achieved via a brief review of a very important legally binding agreement: the “search and rescue” instrument. In conclusion, the Russian State has already heavily invested in icebreakers’ building and their current number is fully capable to handle the present level of limited traffic. On the other hand, ships are currently faced with long distances to cross (often without adequate support) adverse environmental conditions, unpredictable hurdles, and slow response times in case of an emergency. Therefore, in case ships operating in the region are increased, it will be difficult to deal with all the additional demands for support. Of particular interest is the fact that considering the vast area of the NSR, the overall available response capabilities in the region under discussion are rather thin; any further increase of maritime traffic in the “High North” must be balanced with additional strengthening of emergency management capabilities. In any case, should the NSR become fully integrated in the global maritime transport system, Russia’s geopolitical status will be clearly improved and further research is needed to discuss the implications both at the regional and global levels.     

Arctic shipping scenarios and coastal state challenges

The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum of the eight Arctic states, is currently embarked on a comprehensive assessment of Arctic marine activity in the 21^st century — the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA). One of the challenges for theAMSA study team has been to identify the major uncertainties that will be central to shaping the future of Arctic marine use in 2020 and 2050. Using scenario planning, AMSA has identified two primary drivers and uncertainties: (A) Resources and trade; and, (B) Governance. Four scenario narratives have been developed with these two, key uncertainties as the framework elements. The main arguments focus on the fact the Arctic has experienced globalization early in the century and that the global maritime industry has already ventured into the Arctic Ocean. Marine access in the Arctic Ocean is also changing in unprecedented ways and the extraordinary transformation Arctic sea ice is undergoing — thinning, extent reduction, and a reduction in the area of multiyear ice in the central ocean — has significant implications for longer seasons of navigation. However, the high prices of global commodities such as oil, gas, and hard minerals (for example, copper, nickel and zinc) have generated high levels of demand for Arctic natural resources. The Arctic states are challenged by an overall lack of maritime infrastructure to adequately support current and future levels of Arctic marine operations; ports, communications, environmental monitoring, search & rescue, incident response, aids to navigation, and coastal charting, to name a few, require substantial and timely investment by the coastal states and marine operators. A second challenge is the ongoing development of an integrated system of rules and regulations governing Arctic navigation that will enhance marine safety and ensure marine environmental protection throughout the basin. These challenges will require historic levels of cooperation among the Arctic states and broad engagement with the many, non-Arctic stakeholders and actors within the global maritime industry.     

Arctic routing: Challenges and opportunities

Responding to the world’s growing demand for oil and gas, Arctic resources have been given much attention by the energy and shipping industries. In addition, global warming has accelerated oil and gas development in the Arctic, particularly in its western region. Ice-diminishing Arctic has inspired the world’s shipping industry to explore the feasibility of the historical Arctic routes, the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route, as seasonal commercial sea lanes. The background aspects of the Passages and the main issues to be solved for their commercial openings are discussed in this paper. Challenges to an internationally agreeable Arctic regime, likely the Antarctic Treaty, are crucial for clean production and safe transport of the Arctic resources and the transit passages across the Arctic Ocean.     

Real-time assessment and prediction on maritime risk state on the Arctic Route

ABSTRACT

Recently, the Arctic Route has become busier with the continuous melting of Arctic ice. However, navigation on the Arctic Route would be much more complex than in normal water as harsh environmental conditions, such as ice-covered water and scarce costal ports that may cause more uncertainty. Nowadays, with the rapid development of sensors on board, more related data has become available. Thus, implementing comprehensive Arctic maritime risk assessment is urgent and necessary in practice. This study proposes an Arctic maritime risk state assessment method including real-time risk state assessment and risk prediction. Specifically, real-time observation samples’ numerical risk state would be firstly obtained with projection pursuit method from 10 risk indicators. Due to the fuzzy uncertainty of single observation set, information diffusion would be applied to provide diffusion estimation on risk probability distribution in order to depict risk state precisely. Also, the accumulated distribution can be regarded as the risk prediction for next time slot and risk entropy is introduced to depict risk tendency directly. Case study based on ‘Yongsheng’ is conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The findings can be useful for the operators and management on board during the Arctic voyage.     

舰船在北极海区有关航法及定位问题探究

针对北极海区航行条件的特点,提出了几种适用于北极海区航行的海图选用方法;并就舰船在北极海区航行时的航迹推算和天文定位解算等问题给出了具体的解算方法。