Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO₂ emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO₂ emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO₂ emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO₂ emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO₂ emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO₂ emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.     

Optimized selection of vessel air emission controls—moving beyond cost-efficiency

Shipping currently has an unexploited potential for improved energy efficiency and reduced emissions to air. Many existing air emission controls have been proved to be cost-efficient but are still not commonly installed on board vessels. This paper discusses the so-called ‘energy paradox’ in maritime transportation, presenting barriers to overcome and criteria to consider when selecting cost-efficient air emission controls. Current approaches typically select available controls based on their cost-effectiveness. While this is an important aid in the decision-making process, and, in relative terms, easy to quantify, it is not a sufficient criterion to capture the true preferences of the decision-maker. We present in this paper a multi-criteria optimization model for the selection of air emission controls. This decision framework can also incorporate subjective and qualitative factors, and is applied to the shipping company Grieg Shipping. A survey among internal Grieg Shipping stakeholders identifies the important criteria to consider, their relative importance, and the scoring of the controls. This empirical data is used as parameters in the model and the model is then applied on a vessel of the Grieg Shipping fleet. The results show that nonfinancial factors play an important role in the selection of air emission controls in shipping.     

Atmospheric emissions of European SECA shipping: long-term projections

We modeled the projections of the major atmospheric emissions from shipping of the European sulphur emission control area that includes the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the English Channel until 2040. Emission projections were calculated separately for every ship on annual basis, and the model took into account traffic growth, fleet renewal, and the forthcoming regulations. The regulation on sulfur content of ship fuels will drastically decrease the emissions of sulfur oxides and particulate matter (PM_2.5). As the regulation on nitrogen oxides (NO _x ) only affects the new diesel engines, the decrease in emissions will be seen parallel with the fleet renewal. Globally internalized limits will turn NO _x emissions to decrease with moderate traffic growth. However, by designating the Baltic Sea and the North Sea as NO _x emission control areas, more drastic decrease would occur. CO₂ emissions will stay almost constant through the studied timeline. Results show that European Commission's CO₂ target for 2050 will not be reached without implementation of market based measures among the North Sea and the Baltic Sea fleets. Results present new information for decision makers to further develop international regulations of shipping especially in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.     

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

Manoeuvring and hotelling external costs: enough for alternative energy sources?

Local air pollution is the most relevant externality of maritime transport, and its effects are more acute in urban areas as a result of manoeuvring, hotelling and load/unload activities at ports. This article is intended to assess ships’ local air pollution impact in generally densely populated harbour areas to decide whether alternative power supply measures are feasible. First, an optimized infrastructure investment model is developed to ease implementation and maximize the efficiency of alternative power supply projects. Once target harbours and traffic (ship types) within a national port network have been chosen, a vessel traffic analysis (ship type, tonnage, manoeuvring, and hotelling times) is carried out to quantify and evaluate annual polluting emissions (PM_2,5, SO₂, NOx, and VOCs) and their externalities. Finally, the assessment model is applied and results of the Spanish port network case study are discussed. The results obtained are significant and bring the possibility of further controlling the ship’s environmental performance at berth.     

On the numerical accuracy of the wave load distribution on a ship advancing in short and steep waves

Defining numerical uncertainty is an important part of the practical application of a numerical method. In the case of a ship advancing in short and steep waves, little knowledge exists on the solution behaviour as a function of discretisation resolution. This paper studies an interface-capturing (VOF) solution for a passenger ship advancing in steep (kA = 0.24) and short waves (L _w /L _pp = 0.16). The focus is to estimate quantitative uncertainties for the longitudinal distributions of the first–third harmonic wave loads in the ship bow area. These estimates are derived from the results of three systematically refined discretisation resolutions. The obtained uncertainty distributions reveal that even the uncertainty of the first harmonic wave load varies significantly along the ship bow area. It is shown that the largest local uncertainties of the first harmonic wave load relate to the differences in the local details of the propagating and deforming encountered waves along the hull. This paper also discusses the challenges that were encountered in the quantification of the uncertainties for this complex flow case.     

A two-stage optimization approach for sulphur emission regulation compliance

In this paper, we present a two-stage optimization model for the machinery system selection problem. The objective is to minimize total cost, while aggregated power requirement and emission regulations are constraining the problem. Future fuel prices are considered to be uncertain. From a set of alternatives, the machinery configuration providing the lowest total cost is found. Also design flexibility in terms of future reconfiguration possibilities is taken into account. The machinery selection for a 2000 TEU container vessel is used as an illustrative case. Five initial machinery concepts are considered: diesel machinery, diesel machinery with a scrubber system, dual fuel (DF) machinery, pure gas engines, and a DF ready machinery. There is also a set of reconfiguration possibilities available for each alternative. From solving the case study, DF machinery is found optimal, while pure gas machinery is close to equally good. By solving the problem with deterministic fuel prices, the value of flexibility is not properly accounted for, resulting in an unreasonably high total cost for the flexible machinery alternatives. This demonstrates the need for a decision support approach that explicitly handles future uncertainty, as the two-stage stochastic model presented in this paper does.     

URANS simulations of catamaran interference in shallow water

This paper investigates the interference effects of wave systems on a multi-hull vessel in shallow water. A numerical analysis is made using the URANS code CFDSHIP-Iowa V.4 on the DELFT Catamaran model 372. The test matrix for numerical computations includes two separation distances (s = 0.17; 0.23) and the depth values of h/T = 8.2, 2.5 and 2, at several speeds ranging within Fr _H = 0.775–1.739. Numerical results are compared with the experimental data of the Bulgarian Ship Hydrodynamic Center, and verification and validation for resistance, sinkage and trim are also performed. Results show that, at critical speed (Fr _H ≈ 1), the presence of a finite depth significantly affects the catamaran total resistance, which, in shallower water, increases considerably with respect to deep water. At low h/T, small effects of the water depth on resistance occur at subcritical and supercritical speeds. The interference effects seem to be more relevant in shallow, rather than in deep water, with maximum IF values registered at critical speeds (Fr _H ≈ 1). Similarly to deep water, the lower the separation distance the greater the interference value. Moreover, in shallow water some negative interference is observed at Fr > 0.5. Wave patterns and wave profiles are analyzed and a comparison is made between several configurations of catamaran and a mono-hull vessel, in order to analyze how water depth and separation distance determine resistance and interference. Finally, a vortex instability study is also included.     

Evaluating air emission inventories and indicators from cruise vessels at ports

This paper provides an estimation of air emissions (CO₂, NO_X, SO_X and PM) released by cruise vessels at the port level. The methodology is based on the “full bottom-up” approach and starts by evaluating the fuel consumed by each vessel on the basis of its individual port activities (manoeuvring, berthing and hoteling). The Port of Barcelona was selected as the site at which to perform the analysis, in which 125 calls of 30 cruise vessels were monitored. Real-time data from the automatic identification system (AIS), factor emissions from engine certificates and vessel characteristics from IHS Sea-web database were also collected for the analysis. The research findings show that the most appropriate indicators are inventory emissions per “port-time gross tonnage”, “port-time passenger” and “port time”. These emission indicators improve our understanding of cruise emissions and will facilitate the work that aims to estimate reliably and quickly the in-port ship emission inventories of cruise ports.     

Estimation of CO2 reduction for Japanese domestic container transportation based on mathematical models

This research discusses domestic feeder container transportation connected with international trades in Japan. Optimal round trip courses of container ship fleet from the perspective of CO₂ emission reduction are calculated and analyzed to obtain basic knowledge about CO₂ emission reduction in the container feeder transportation system. Specifically, based on the weekly origin–destination (OD) data at a hub port (Kobe) and other related transportation data, the ship routes are designed by employing a mathematical modeling approach. First, a mixed integer programming model is formulated and solved by using an optimization software that employs branch and bound algorithm. The objective function of the model is to minimize the CO₂ emission subject to necessary (and partially simplified) constraints. The model is then tested on various types of ships with different speed and capacity. Moreover, it is also tested on various waiting times at hub port to investigate the effect in CO₂ emission of the designated fleet. Both the assessment method of container feeder transportation and the transportation’s basic insights in view of CO₂ emission are shown through the analysis.     

采用沿岸动力概念以减少埃及红海海域高速船燃料消耗与降低排放(英文)

The progress of economic globalization,the rapid growth of international trade,and the maritime transportation has played an increasingly significant role in the international supply chain.As a result,worldwide seaports have suffered from a central problem,which appears in the form of massive amounts of fuel consumed and exhaust gas fumes emitted from the ships while berthed.Many ports have taken the necessary precautions to overcome this problem,while others still suffer due to the presence of technical and financial constraints.In this paper,the barriers,interconnection standards,rules,regulations,power sources,and economic and environmental analysis related to ships,shore-side power were studied in efforts to find a solution to overcome his problem.As a case study,this paper investigates the practicability,costs and benefits of switching from onboard ship auxiliary engines to shore-side power connection for high-speed crafts called Alkahera while berthed at the port of Safaga,Egypt.The results provide the national electricity grid concept as the best economical selection with 49.03 percent of annual cost saving.Moreover,environmentally,it could achieve an annual reduction in exhaust gas emissions of CO2,CO,NOx,P.M,and SO2by 276,2.32,18.87,0.825 and 3.84 tons,respectively.     

Resistance analysis of unsymmetrical trimaran model with outboard sidehulls configuration

The application of multi-hull ship or trimaran vessel as a mode of transports in both river and sea environments have grown rapidly in recent years.Trimaran vessels are currently of interest for many new high speed ship projects due to the high levels of hydrodynamic efficiency that can be achieved,compared to the mono-hull and catamaran hull forms.The purpose of this study is to identify the possible effects of using an unsymmetrical trimaran ship model with configuration（S/L） 0.1-0.3 and R/L=0.1-0.2.Unsymmetrical trimaran ship model with main dimensions： L=2000mm,B=200 mm and T=45 mm.Experimental methods（towing tank） were performed in the study using speed variations at Froude number 0.1-0.6.The ship model was pulled by an electric motor whose speed could be varied and adjusted.The ship model resistance was measured precisely by using a load cell transducer.The comparison of ship resistance for each configuration with mono-hull was shown on the graph as a function of the total resistance coefficient and Froude number.The test results found that the effective drag reduction could be achieved up to 17% at Fr=0.35 with configuration S/L=0.1.     

Experimental investigation on the dynamic responses of a free-hanging water intake riser under vessel motion

A large-scale model test of a free-hanging water intake riser (WIR) is performed in an ocean basin to investigate the riser responses under vessel motion. Top end of the WIR is forced to oscillate at given vessel motion trajectories. Fiber Brag Grating (FBG) strain sensors are used to measure the WIR dynamic responses. Experimental results firstly confirms that the free-hanging WIR would experience out-of-plane vortex-induced vibrations (VIVs) under pure vessel motion even for the case with a KC number as low as 5. Meanwhile, comparison between numerical results and experimental measurements suggests a significant drag amplification by out-of-plane vessel motion-induced VIV. What’s more, further study on WIR response frequencies and cross section trajectories reveals a strong correlation between vessel motion-induced VIV and local KC number distribution, owing to the small KC number effect. The presented work provides useful references for gaining a better understanding on VIV induced by vessel motion, and for the development of future prediction models.     

Comparison of Microbubble and Air Layer Injection with Porous Media for Drag Reduction on a Self-propelled Barge Ship Model

Ship resistance issues are related to fuel economy, speed, and cost efficiency. Air lubrication is a promising technique for lowering hull frictional resistance as it is supposed to modify the energy in the turbulent boundary layer and thereby reduce hull friction. In this paper, the objective is to identify the optimum type of air lubrication using microbubble drag reduction (MBDR) and air layer drag reduction (ALDR) techniques to reduce the resistance of a 56-m Indonesian self-propelled barge (SPB). A model with the following dimensions was constructed: length L?=?2000 mm, breadth B?=?521.60 mm, and draft T?=?52.50 mm. The ship model was towed using standard towing tank experimental parameters. The speed was varied over the Froude number range 0.11–0.31. The air layer flow rate was varied at 80, 85, and 90 standard liters per minute (SLPM) and the microbubble injection coefficient over the range 0.20–0.60. The results show that the ship model using the air layer had the highest drag reduction up to a maximum of 90%. Based on the characteristics of the SPB, which operates at low speed, the optimum air lubrication type to reduce resistance in this instance is ALDR.     

Reviews on current carbon emission reduction technologies and projects and their feasibilities on ships

Concern about global climate change is growing, and many projects and researchers are committed to reducing greenhouse gases from all possible sources. International Maritime (IMO) has set a target of 20% CO₂ reduction from shipping by 2020 and also presented a series of carbon emission reduction methods, which are known as Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) and Energy Efficiency Operation Indicator (EEOI). Reviews on carbon emission reduction from all industries indicate that, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an excellent solution to global warming. In this paper, a comprehensive literature review of EEDI and EEOI and CCS is conducted and involves reviewing current policies, introducing common technologies, and considering their feasibilities for marine activities, mainly shipping. Current projects are also presented in this paper, thereby illustrating that carbon emission reduction has been the subject of attention from all over the world. Two case ship studies indicate the economic feasibility of carbon emission reduction and provide a guide for CCS system application and practical installation on ships.     

Evaluating seaport policy alternatives: a simulation study of terminal leasing policy and system performance

The competitive characteristics of the North American seaport industry have, in theory, been causally linked to excess investment and low terminal throughput productivity. This paper empirically examines the link between seaport authority container terminal leasing policy and throughput productivity. Recent advances in inventory theory applied to service industries suggest the pooling of demand uncertainty can yield lower costs without sacrificing customer service. This concept is applied to a container seaport using simulation. The effort compares key output measures from a realistic base case model of the seaport to those generated by an alternative terminal leasing policy. It is shown that the pooling of demand in a common-user seaport reduces total vessel time in port by 17.1% with no reduction in TEU throughput. Throughput productivity is improved for the highest capacity terminals, while lower capacity terminals are made available for additional users or alternative uses.     

A systemic review of shipboard SCR installations in practice

Growing customer demands and more stringent regulations to reduce harmful air emissions from ships have resulted in an increased interest for the installation of shipboard abatement technologies. Specifically, the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) technology to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) was early adopted by several Swedish shipping companies. The potential NO_x reduction efficiency of the SCR is well established, but the practical experiences of shipboard installations have been less documented. This paper reviews from a systems perspective the practical experiences of marine SCR installations in Swedish shipping. The aim is to identify important not only technical but also human and organizational conditions necessary for safe, efficient, and sustainable SCR operations at sea. Further, to investigate to what extent the capabilities and limitations of human operators and maintainers are taken into account in the design and installation phase of the systems. Two focus group interviews (n?=?10) and five individual interviews were held with relevant stakeholders in the industry, following a semi-structured schedule on the themes installation, operation, maintenance, and training. The results show that deficiencies in the overall system design—with a combination of technical issues, maintenance access problems, and untrained operators with inadequate understanding of the SCR process—have led to inefficient, costly, and unsafe operations. It is concluded that installations and operations of marine SCR systems, and possibly other forthcoming abatement technologies, would benefit from the use of traditional ergonomic principles and methods. This would in turn contribute towards increased sustainability and a reduced environmental impact from shipping.     

Cost-effectiveness assessment of CO2 reducing measures in shipping

International shipping is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is under mounting pressure to contribute to overall GHG emission reductions. There is an ongoing debate regarding how much the sector could be expected to reduce emissions and how the reduction could be achieved. This paper details a methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness of technical and operational measures for reducing CO₂ emissions from shipping, through the development of an evaluation parameter called the Cost of Averting a Tonne of CO₂-eq Heating, CATCH, and decision criterion, against which the evaluation parameter should be evaluated. The methodology is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and with regulatory work on safety and environmental protection issues at the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

The results of this study suggest that CATCH <50 $/tonne of CO₂-eq should be used as a decision criterion for investment in emission reduction measures for shipping. In total, 13 specific measures for reducing CO₂ emissions have been analysed for two selected case ships to illustrate the methodology. Results from this work shows that several measures are cost effective according to the proposed criterion. The results suggest that cost effective reductions for the fleet may well be in the order of 30% for technical measures, and above 50% when including speed reductions. The results of this study show that the cost effectiveness approach for the regulation of shipping emissions is viable and should be pursued in the ongoing regulatory process.