城市交通基础设施结构抗震性能评价与应用

城市道路和桥梁是抗震系统的重要组成部分,是生死攸关的抗震救灾生命线。道路和桥梁的结构性能是判断震后应急通道开通和维持的难易程度以及安全可靠性的重要指标。针对城市中心区交通基础设施结构抗震性能评价指标体系,研究了地震8度烈度情景下指标分级体系量化标准,并采用主观赋权法确定了各级指标的权重。基于指标权重结果,为验证灰色关联度评价方法的有效性,同时采用模糊评价方法、模糊灰色关联度综合评价方法进行评价结果趋势一致性检验。最后,应用灰色关联度评价方法对城市中心区典型通道结构抗震性能进行评价,并针对评价结果提出了道路及桥梁的抗震改善建议。     

基于交通安全的高速公路线形组合综合效应分析

公路运输系统是一个由人-车-路-环境所组成的动态系统,其依赖的基础条件是道路.通过分析高速公路道路线形的几何要素与事故的关系,进而对高速公路线形组合的协同性与道路交通安全的关系进行深入探讨.分析表明,道路线形条件是造成事故多发的一个主要原因.分析了高速公路线形组合综合效应对交通安全的影响,可以为道路设计和交通事故的预防提供依据,并且减少道路因素对事故的影响,是改善交通安全状况、遏制交通事故增长趋势的有交途径.     

交通事故与公路运输业状况的关联分析

文章针对交通事故与公路运输业状况,结合我国1998-2006年间的交通事故与公路运输业典型指标的统计数据,采用灰色关联分析法对交通事故及公路运输业状况之间的关联度进行了研究,可为政府相关部门加强交通安全管理、抑制交通事故的发生提供一定的科学依据。     

灰色关联度分析法在系统综合评价中的应用

基于灰色系统理论,研究了灰色关联度分析法在系统综合评价中的应用.并通过实例对该方法进行了实证研究,表明了该方法的有效性.     

道路与桥梁常见交通安全问题研究

为了提升我国道路与桥梁的交通安全水平,针对目前道路与桥梁中存在的常见交通安全问题进行分析,并结合有关因素展开全面的研究,提出一种较为适用于我国道路与桥梁的通行安全对策,以供参考。     

下坡路段的道路线型设计安全评价方法

长大下坡路段往往是交通事故多发路段,文章基于实测数据,分析长大下坡路段道路线型设计的交通安全影响因素,总结出下坡路段道路加速度模型,根据加速度变化量与交通安全之间的关系,提出以加速度的变化量为评价道路安全的量化指标,确定下坡路段道路线型设计的评价标准.     

橡胶沥青混合料高温性能影响因素敏感性分析

文章应用灰色关联度分析理论,分别从胶结料和级配、油石比及空隙率两个角度对橡胶沥青混合料高温性能影响因素进行敏感性分析,找出评价橡胶沥青混合料高温性能的主要指标,为高温地区选择橡胶沥青混合料提供参考。研究结果表明,胶结料中的橡胶沥青的177℃粘度与级配中的9.5mm筛孔通过率和车辙试验的动稳定度的关联程度最好,与实际情况基本吻合,说明灰色关联度分析方法是一种简单有效的分析橡胶沥青混合料高温性能影响因素的方法。     

基于灰色理论的顶管施工道路沉降评价方法

在进行道路顶管施工中,需要对道路沉降情况进行评价,评价结果容易产生较大的误差,无法为施工提供参照,因此开展基于灰色理论的公路顶管施工道路沉降评价方法设计研究。通过构建道路沉降区段预测模型、建立道路顶管施工道路沉降层次化评价体系、基于评价矩阵的道路沉降评价结果量化,完成对此方法的设计。选择某地区取水管道工程作为此次实验的工程实例,通过实验结果证明,设计的方法在实际应用中,不仅可以实现对道路顶管施工点沉降值的精准预测,也可以降低沉降评价结果的误差率,为道路顶管施工提供借鉴。     

广西:社会物流成本预测与经济发展关联分析

本文利用灰色预测模型,对2013²017年广西社会物流成本进行了预测,并利用灰色关联度分析方法对影响社会物流成本的相关因素进行了分析。     

基于环境影响的路线方案优选

为了在一些可比替代路线方案中,通过比较选出最优的路线环境设计方案,必须针对路线方案进行多目标、多层次的决策分析,可采用多层次灰色理论.借助灰色关联分析,对路线方案进行环境评价,得出各方案环境影响综合关联度.根据关联度越大排序越前原则,得出环境最优方案.     

道路环境对交通安全的影响及对策

交通安全,涉及到人、车以及道路和环境等很多因素。近年来,因为各种原因使得有关单位以及人员将更多的将精力放在人、车、道路这几个因素上,对道路交通环境没有过多的考虑和研究。深入研究道路交通环境,有利于道路交通的安全,文章通过对其的研究和分析,得出有关道路交通环境对交通安全的影响和解决措施,对于防止道路交通安全事故具有重要意义。同时为人们的生命财产的安全提供保障、对构建社会主义和谐社会具有很大帮助。     

Evaluating road safety audit procedures: some questions and a new method of study

This article discusses the current views on the application of road safety audits (RSAs) as a tool for the improvement of road safety and proposes a new method of study for detailed evaluation of some features that can influence their effectiveness. This is demonstrated in the practical setting of RSAs applied to existing road reviews or inspections. Starting from a review of published sources on RSAs in different countries, a set of questions has been identified and a case study undertaken on the impact of alternative RSA procedures on its overall effectiveness. RSA effectiveness is measured both as agreement with a safety expert assessment and to an accident-based study. The main features analyzed in the case study include the type of observer used for data collection and the type of checklist used as a guide to field work. Based on an exploratory study, the performance of RSA application is evaluated using weighted indices of concordance and disagreement, and the rating of detection or omission for the observations gathered in the accident diagnosis of the safety problems at the intersection studied, supplemented by a statistical analysis of the influence of selected covariates on these scores. The main results of the case study can be summarized as clear support to team work for field observation and also to employing less-experienced personnel for field observation. The study also stresses the need for procedures/criteria for priority setting. These conclusions are useful for the selection of alternative RSA procedures in agencies responsible for promoting or enforcing RSA and in professional teams carrying out RSA tasks. Several features deserving further study are also identified.     

A Multiple Criteria Decision‐Making Approach for Prioritizing Accident Hotspots in the Absence of Crash Data

Abstract

In an efficient transportation system, traffic safety is an important issue and it is influenced by many factors. In a country like Iran, until now safety improvements are mainly concentrated on road engineering activities, without much attention for vehicle technology or driving behaviour. One important aspect of road safety engineering activities is the so‐called treatment of hotspots or dangerous accident locations. Until recently, accident hotspots were identified and remedied by the esxperts’ personal judgements and a handful of statistics without taking into account other important factors such as geometric and traffic conditions of the road network. This paper therefore aims to define and identify the criteria for accident hotspots, then giving a value to each criterion in order to develop a model to prioritize accident hotspots when traffic accident data is not available. To do this, the ‘Delphi’ method has been adopted and a prioritization model is produced by the use of a ‘Multiple Criteria Decision‐Making’ method. The procedure is illustrated on a collection of 20 road sections in Iran. In addition, the model is validated against an existing database of road sections containing safe locations and hotspots. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the proposed method.     

Testing a Framework for the Efficiency Assessment of Road Safety Measures

Abstract

The objective of this research is to develop and test a framework for efficiency assessment of road safety measures and evaluate its use in decision‐making. An exhaustive review of standard methodologies and practices related to cost‐effectiveness and cost–benefit analyses is carried out for that purpose. Moreover, a number of case studies are performed, concerning the efficiency assessment of various road safety measures in different countries, covering different types of road safety measures (user‐, vehicle‐ or infrastructure‐oriented, policy or enforcement, etc.), ranging from national to local levels of implementation and including both ex ante and ex post evaluations. From the results conclusions are drawn on the efficiency of different road safety measures and the related determinants. Furthermore, the case studies reveal a number of methodology and data issues for which further research is required. The procedures and barriers involved in the use of efficiency assessment techniques at different levels of decision‐making are also highlighted by means of feedback received during and after the various case studies. On the basis of these results, a framework for the promotion, implementation and evaluation of efficiency assessment in road safety decision‐making is proposed. A particular set of recommendations is also presented regarding the treatment of barriers (fundamental, institutional or technical) within the efficiency assessment itself and the related decision‐making process.     

The economics of road safety

In this paper we present a theoretical framework for the analysis of road safety in different contexts characterized by the following factors: the presence or the absence of externalities, moral hazard, taxes (subsidies), government regulation, liability insurance and multi-period insurance contracts. The main results are the following: (i) A Pareto optimal solution for insurance coverage and road safety is characterized by full insurance and a level of prevention which takes into account externalities between drivers. (ii) Without asymmetrical information, such a Pareto optimal solution can be obtained with or without a fault system for negligence if an adequate rating system is set up in order to induce individuals to take into account externalities. Taxes and subsidies can also be efficient. Government regulation of road safety is another way to reduce inefficies due to externalities. However, these interventions will not generally lead to a socially optimal level of road safety under asymmetrical information. (iii) Under asymmetrical information, two mechanisms are examined in some detail: fault for negligence and multi-period insurance contracts. It is shown that one-period liability insurance contracts (assuming that the legal system can observe the individual's level of road safety activities when accidents occur) or multi-period no-fault insurance contracts (assuming an infinite horizon with no discounting) based in part on the individual's past driving record can give individually rational self-protection activity levels which are socially efficient in presence of both moral hazard and externalities. Under less stringent assumptions, these contracts can give second-best solutions.     

公路波形梁护栏安全性影响因素及评价方法

公路安全生命防护工程不仅是公路设计部门,也是公路养护管理部门重点考虑的内容,主要研究方向是以人民为中心,人性化设计、科学化管养。其中,护栏作为最常用的路侧安全生命防护工程,以经济可靠、防护性能好的优点得到广泛运用并在规范中不断完善。文章通过研究国内外护栏设计现状与近年安全事故数据,分析当今护栏设计中存在的不足,探究影响设计的主要因素,并介绍相关的评价方法。     

基于可拓云模型的绿色生态型市政道路综合评价方法应用研究

本文从生态环保、品质提升、安全高效、绿色低碳、信息智慧5个方面来构建覆盖全寿命周期的指标体系,综合利用AHP—熵权组合赋权法、物元分析理论和云模型建立绿色生态型市政道路评价可拓云模型,并实现了绿色生态评价的可视化云图分析。最后,以重庆市广阳大道进行实例研究,结果表明广阳大道绿色生态水平处于Ⅴ级,指标落实情况较高,与该项目实际考核情况基本一致,验证了本文的可拓云模型的科学性,可为绿色生态型市政道路项目评价提供一定的科学参考。     

Road Safety Trends at National Level in Europe: A Review of Time-series Analysis Performed during the Period 2000–12

Abstract

This paper presents a review of time-series analysis of road safety trends, aggregated at a national level, which has been performed in the period 2000–12 and applied to European national data sets covering long time periods. It provides a guideline and set of best practices in the area of time-series modelling and identifies the latest methods and applications of national road safety trend analysis in Europe. The paper begins with the methodological framework adopted for aggregate time-series modelling that will be considered, and then discusses a number of relevant applications to long-period data aggregated at the national level, whether for countries alone, or for groups of countries. Some analyses, which were performed at the disaggregated level, are also provided, as they are being used more and more. Finally, the paper summarizes and discusses the significant changes in aggregate road safety trend analysis which occurred during the period and provides recommendations for continuing these research efforts.     

Study on road section environmental traffic capacity model and algorithm under double constraints

The coordinated development of city traffic and environment is a key research content in traffic field in twenty-first Century. Among them, road section environmental traffic capacity analysis is one of the important research issues. It can provide solid theoretical basis and reliable data support for road network traffic optimization control, road traffic pollution control and city traffic structure optimization. This paper analyzed main factors which impacted environmental traffic capacity from two aspects, including road capacity constraint conditions and road traffic pollution control constraint conditions. Then, road section environmental traffic capacity optimization model was established, and method of improved augmented Lagrange function was used to solve the model. Case study showed that, (1) The environmental traffic capacity optimal model and methodology were effective; (2) In order to ensure road section environmental traffic capacity greater than (or equal to) road capacity, some measures could be taken including adjusting motor vehicle type proportion as well as improving emission characteristics of motor vehicles exhausting pollutants.