“I can do perfectly well without a car!”

This article presents the results of a study exploring travellers’ preferences for middle-distance travel using Q-methodology. Respondents rank-ordered 42 opinion statements regarding travel choice and motivations for travel in general and for car and public transport as alternative travel modes. By-person factor analysis revealed four distinct preference segments for middle-distance travel: (1) choice travellers with a preference for public transport, (2) deliberate-choice travellers, (3) choice travellers with car as dominant alternative, and (4) car-dependent travellers. These preference segments differ in terms of the levels of involvement and cognitive effort in travel decision making, the travel consideration-set and underlying motivations. The study showed that for most people there is more to travel than getting from point A to point B, and that there is considerable heterogeneity in middle-distance travel preferences. Policy implications for reducing the need for travel and promoting a modal shift from car to other travel modes are discussed.     

Could you also have made this trip by another mode? An investigation of perceived travel possibilities of car and train travellers on the main travel corridors to the city of Amsterdam,The Netherlands

We investigated perceived travel possibilities (or subjective choice-sets, consideration-sets) of car and train travellers on the main corridors to the city of Amsterdam, The Netherlands, and associations with traveller and trip characteristics. We conducted secondary analysis on a survey sample consisting of 7950 train and 19,232 car travellers. Forty-five percent of train travellers had a car in their objective choice-set, 27% of them would however never use it for this trip. Trip destination city centre, trip purpose, paying for the trip, public transport commitment, traffic congestion and parking problems were associated with consideration of car as alternative. Forty-two percent of car travellers had public transport in their subjective choice-set. The ratio between perceived public transport and objective car travel time stood out as determinant of consideration-sets, next to destination city centre, trip purpose, travel time and private versus company car ownership. On average, car travellers’ perceptions of public transport travel time exceeded objective values by 46%. We estimated that if perceptions would be more accurate, two out of three car travellers that currently do not see public transport as an alternative would include it in their choice-set, and use it from time to time. This effect has strong theoretical and policy implications.     

Understanding public response to a congestion charge: A random-effects ordered logit approach

Public acceptance is consistently listed as having an enormous impact on the implementation and success of a congestion charge scheme. This paper investigates public acceptance of such a scheme in Australia. Surveys were conducted in Brisbane and Melbourne, the two fastest growing Australian cities. Using an ordered logit modeling approach, the survey data including stated preferences were analyzed to pinpoint the important factors influencing people’s attitudes to a congestion charge and, in turn, to their transport mode choices. To accommodate the nature of, and to account for the resulting heterogeneity of the panel data, random effects were considered in the models. As expected, this study found that the amount of the congestion charge and the financial benefits of implementing it have a significant influence on respondents’ support for the charge and on the likelihood of their taking a bus to city areas. However, respondents’ current primary transport mode for travelling to the city areas has a more pronounced impact. Meanwhile, respondents’ perceptions of the congestion charge’s role in protecting the environment by reducing vehicle emissions, and of the extent to which the charge would mean that they travelled less frequently to the city for shopping or entertainment, also have a significant impact on their level of support for its implementation. We also found and explained notable differences across two cities. Finally, findings from this study have been fully discussed in relation to the literature.     

Investigation and analysis of evidence of asymmetric churn in travel demand models

There is a large amount of research work that has been devoted to the understanding of travel behaviour and for the prediction of travel demand and its management. Different types of data including stated preference and revealed preference, as well as different modelling approaches have been used to predict this. Essential to most travel demand forecasting models are the concepts of utility maximisation and equilibrium, although there have been alternative approaches for modelling travel behaviour. In this paper, the concept of asymmetric churn is discussed. That is travel behaviour should be considered as a two way process which changes over time. For example over time some travellers change their mode of travel from car to bus, but more travellers change their mode from bus to car. These changes are not equal and result in a net change in aggregate travel behaviour. Transport planners often aim at producing this effect in the opposite direction. It is important therefore to recognise the existence of churns in travel behaviour and to attempt to develop appropriate policies to target different groups of travellers with the relevant transport policies in order to improve the transport system. A data set collected from a recent large survey, which was carried out in Edinburgh is investigated to analyse the variations in departure time choice behaviour. The paper reports on the results of the investigation.     

Exploring transport carbon futures using population microsimulation and travel diaries: Beijing to 2030

Evaluating transport policy for cities in developing countries is often constrained by data availability that limits the use of conventional appraisal models. Here, we present a new ‘bottom-up’ methodology to estimate transport CO₂ emission from daily urban passenger travel for Beijing, a megacity with relatively sparse data on travel behaviour. A spatial microsimulation, based on an activity diary survey and two sample population censuses, is used to simulate, for Beijing’s urban districts, a realistic synthetic population, and their daily travel and CO₂ emission over 2000–2010. This approach provides greater insight into the spatial variability of transport CO₂ emission than has previously been possible for Beijing, and further, enables an examination of the role of socio-demographics, urban form and transport developments in contributing to emissions over the modelled period.Using the 2000–2010 CO₂ emission estimates as a baseline, CO₂ emissions from passenger travel are then modelled to 2030 under scenarios exploring politically plausible strategies on transport (public transport infrastructure investment, and vehicle constraint), urban development (compaction) and vehicle technology (faster adoption of clean vehicle technology). The results showed that, compared to the trend scenario, employing both transport and urban development policies could reduce total passenger CO₂ emission to 2030 by 24%, and by 43% if all strategies were applied together. The study reveals the potential of microsimulation in emission estimation for large cities in developing countries where data availability may constrain more traditional approaches.     

A behavioural comparison of route choice on metro networks: Time,transfers, crowding,topology and socio-demographics

Understanding travellers’ behaviour is key element in transportation planning. This article presents a route choice model for metro networks that considers different time components as well as variables related to the transferring experience, train crowding, network topology and socio-demographic characteristics. The route choice model is applied to the London Underground and Santiago Metro networks, to make a comparison of the decision making process of the users on both cities. As all the variables are statistically significant, it is possible to affirm that public transport users take into account a wide variety of elements when choosing routes. While in London the travellers prefer to spend time walking, in Santiago is preferable to spend time waiting. Santiago Metro users are more willing to travel in crowded trains than London Underground users. Both user groups have a similar dispreference to transfers after controlling for the time spent on transfer, but different attitudes to ascending and descending transfers. Topological factors presented on a distorted Metro map are more important than actual topology to passengers’ route choice decisions.     

Public transport demand: dynamic panel model analysis

This paper presents an original essay that explains the mobility behaviour towards the public transport supply in Tunisia. This research aims to determine the key variables affecting an individual’s decision to travel by public transport and explains how the use of these means fits the mobility strategies. The dynamic panel model is applied to twelve Tunisian Regional companies, where we aim to analyze the behaviours of Tunisian citizens in the regions where Regional Transport Companies ensure the total service supply of urban, interurban and suburban public transport of travellers. The results show that mobility behaviours are subject to various variables. In particular, service quality, mean price and active population are the most significant variables regarding public transport demand in Tunisia.     

Understanding transport mode choice for commuting: the role of affect

This study examines the relationship between positive and negative user valence and transport mode choice behaviour. We integrate latent attitudes ‘affect’ and ‘salience’ into transport mode choice models using the framework of integrated choice and latent variable modelling and simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation methods. The results are consistent with findings in similar travel behaviour and behavioural economics literature. The study extends the findings of previous research and has demonstrated that user sentiments about public transport mode and salient public transport experiences have a significant impact on travel mode choice behaviour. It was found that private motorised users are more sensitive to overcrowding and anti-social behaviours on PT than active and PT travellers. Key attitudinal indicators influencing individual transport choice behaviour are established to guide public policy. The key indicators of Affect and Salience must be analysed and addressed through public policy to enhance PT user experience and develop services and facilities to increase the utility of PT in-vehicle travel time.     

Preferences of travellers for using automated vehicles as last mile public transport of multimodal train trips

In the recent years many developments took place regarding automated vehicles (AVs) technology. It is however unknown to which extent the share of the existing transport modes will change as result of AVs introduction as another public transport option. This study is the first where detailed traveller preferences for AVs are explored and compared to existing modes. Its main objective is to position AVs in the transportation market and understand the sensitivity of travellers towards some of their attributes, focusing particularly on the use of these vehicles as egress mode of train trips. Because fully-automated vehicles are not yet a reality and they entail a potentially high disruptive way on how we use automobiles today, we apply a stated preference experiment where the role of attitudes in perceiving the utility of AVs is particularly explored in addition to the classical instrumental variables and several socio-economic variables. The estimated discrete choice model shows that first class train travellers on average prefer the use of AVs as egress mode, compared to the use of bicycle or bus/tram/metro as egress. We therefore conclude that AVs as last mile transport between the train station and the final destination have most potential for first class train travellers. Results show that in-vehicle time in AVs is experienced more negatively than in-vehicle time in manually driven cars. This suggests that travellers do not perceive the theoretical advantage of being able to perform other tasks during the trip in an automated vehicle, at least not yet. Results also show that travellers’ attitudes regarding trust and sustainability of AVs are playing an important role in AVs attractiveness, which leads to uncertainty on how people will react when AVs are introduced in practice. We therefore state the importance of paying sufficient attention to these psychological factors, next to classic instrumental attributes like travel time and costs, before and during the implementation process of AVs as a public transport alternative. We recommend the extension of this research to revealed preference studies, thereby using the results of field studies.     

Middle‐class Travel Patterns,Predispositions and Attitudes,and Present‐day Transport Policy in Bangkok,Thailand

Abstract

Middle‐class expansion and new consumption patterns have increasingly become an important focus of studies of the development and change in newly industrialized and middle‐income‐developing East and South East Asian countries. However, there is still a dearth of studies in the literature particularly focusing on middle‐class travel patterns, predispositions and transport policy preferences. Nor have the implications of these factors on current transport and land development policy been examined. The present exploratory study addresses this gap by examining three cases in Bangkok, Thailand, which in recent decades witnessed dramatic middle‐class expansion, an increase in private motor vehicle population, and spatial diffusion of middle‐class residences into lower‐density zones in the suburbs. By mainly employing a survey method of data‐gathering and quantitative research analysis, the paper discusses the following findings: (1) that middle‐class travel behaviour is characterized by a high dependence on private motor vehicle travel and ‘inward commuting’; (2) that middle‐class preferences for transport mode and attitudes about remedial policy options are generally protective of their members’ car‐dependence and ownership; and (3) that present policy measures of the Thai government on Bangkok transport perfectly fit and support exclusively middle‐ and upper‐class predispositions and stakes in mobility. These findings in a developing country city basically follow a similar profile to be found in middle‐class‐dominant transport patterns and urban form in a number of North American cities. This paper further argues that in a developing country city such as Bangkok, where marked social differentiation and the combined population of poor and low‐income classes still comprise almost half of the urban social landscape despite an expanding middle‐class, an adequate and good public transport system that also meets the former’s need for efficient mobility is an imperative.     

Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability

Two distinguishable modelling approaches exist for modelling the attitudes of travellers to the unexpected day-to-day variability of travel times. The direct approach sees the extent of travel time variability (TTV) as the variable that travellers react to, whereas the indirect approach claims that TTV effects are fully explained by trip scheduling considerations. Past research has not yet overcome the issue of which of these concepts is preferable, especially for public transport users. In the current paper, factors affecting bus users’ scheduling behaviour and attitudes to TTV are investigated, based on a survey among bus users in the city of York, England. The survey methodology and its Internet-based design are described. The results confirm that the influence of TTV on bus users is best explained indirectly through scheduling considerations. The penalty placed on early arrival to the destination is found similar to the penalty on travel time itself; late arrivals are much more heavily penalised. Since the common treatment of TTV in practice is through models that ignore the effect of lateness and earliness, we also examine how using the simple approach rather than the correct one affects the economic interpretation of TTV; the results reveal a massive bias.     

Trip chain complexity: a comparison among latent classes of daily mobility patterns

This paper studies the relationship between trip chain complexity and daily travel behaviour of travellers. While trip chain complexity is conventionally investigated between travel modes, our scope is the more aggregated level of a person’s activity-travel pattern. Using data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel, a latent class cluster analysis was performed to group people with similar mode choice behaviour in distinct mobility pattern classes. All trip chains were assigned to both a travel mode and the mobility pattern class of the traveller. Subsequently, differences in trip chain complexity distributions were analysed between travel modes and between mobility pattern classes. Results indicate considerable differences between travel modes, particularly between multimodal and unimodal trip chains, but also between the unimodal travel modes car, bicycle, walking and public transport trip chains. No substantial differences in trip chain complexity were found between mobility pattern classes. Independently of the included travel modes, the distributions of trip chain complexity degrees were similar across mobility pattern classes. This means that personal circumstances such as the number of working hours or household members are not systematically translated into specific mobility patterns.

     

Efficient contracting and incentive agreements between regulators and bus operators: The influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice

Contracts that govern transactions between regulators and operators are an important feature of service delivery in public transport. This paper reviews the literature on efficient contracting in general and its application to public transport contracts and found little empirical evidence on the influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice, a fundamental premise of classical contracting theory. Departing from the existing literature, this paper develops a choice experiment to study public transport operators’ preferences for different contractual forms. People involved in the public transport industry across Australia are invited to do the survey but the respondents are mainly bus operators in New South Wales. The respondents are offered two hypothetical contracts with different risk profiles and incentives and asked to indicate their preferences as well as their acceptance to provide the services under the contract they prefer. A non-linear scaled multinomial logit model is estimated to establish the role of risk allocation on contract preference of bus operators and the optimal amount of risks and incentives, conditioned on the operators’ attitude towards risk. The results help authorities design performance-based contracts to obtain their objectives while maintaining the operators’ level of satisfaction.     

Inferring patterns in the multi-week activity sequences of public transport users

The public transport networks of dense cities such as London serve passengers with widely different travel patterns. In line with the diverse lives of urban dwellers, activities and journeys are combined within days and across days in diverse sequences. From personalized customer information, to improved travel demand models, understanding this type of heterogeneity among transit users is relevant to a number of applications core to public transport agencies’ function. In this study, passenger heterogeneity is investigated based on a longitudinal representation of each user’s multi-week activity sequence derived from smart card data. We propose a methodology leveraging this representation to identify clusters of users with similar activity sequence structure. The methodology is applied to a large sample (n = 33,026) from London’s public transport network, in which each passenger is represented by a continuous 4-week activity sequence. The application reveals 11 clusters, each characterized by a distinct sequence structure. Socio-demographic information available for a small sample of users (n = 1973) is combined to smart card transactions to analyze associations between the identified patterns and demographic attributes including passenger age, occupation, household composition and income, and vehicle ownership. The analysis reveals that significant connections exist between the demographic attributes of users and activity patterns identified exclusively from fare transactions.     

High speed rail market projection: Survey design and analysis

This paper summarises work done to assess the market potential and likely financial performance of a planned high-speed rail link connecting Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, under a variety of scenarios concerning the services offered and the possible market responses of the competing transport modes in the corridor. In the Australian context, such a link has the characteristics of an essentially new transport mode since existing rail services are extremely poorly developed. The expectation was that generated demand could be a substantial part of the overall ridership. A programme of market research was commissioned by the private consortium considering the project, designed to support forecasting models capable of predicting both diverted and generated travel on the new service. A major survey of current travellers was conducted in 1988, followed by an extensive collection of stated preference evidence about the factors affecting the travel decisions of both existing travellers and those who had not recently made any journeys in the corridor. The paper focuses mainly on the design and organisation of the surveys, on the analysis approach, and on the methods used to generate forecasts for simulated populations and scenarios.     

The impact of extreme weather conditions on long distance travel behaviour

This paper examines traveller attitudes and responses towards disruption from weather and natural events. An internet-based travel behaviour survey was conducted with more than 2000 respondents in London and Glasgow. Of these respondents, 740 reported information on over 1000 long distance trips affected by extreme weather and natural events over the previous three years. Results show respondents are generally cautious towards travelling during extreme weather events. For a slight majority in the case of air and public transport, and a greater one in the case of car, travellers did not considerably alter their travel plan following the disruption. This was explained not only by less disruptive weather conditions (with heavy snow and volcanic ash being the most disruptive) and impact, but also by the relative importance of their trips. Differences between transport modes were not substantial. Business trips sometimes appeared to give travellers more flexibility, some other times not. Origin and destination did have an impact on reaction, as well as the presence of children whilst travelling. Mixed results were obtained about socio-economic and attitudinal variables. Age in particular did not appear to have a significant effect. Whilst most respondents did acknowledge no external influence in their decision, results showed an important contribution of transport organisation staff, as well as home and mobile internet technology. A limited but still considerable number of respondents indicated their closest friends/relatives as the main influence of their decisions. The results will help planners deploy strategies to mitigate the negative effects of weather related disruptions.     

A disaggregate study of urban rail transit feeder transfer penalties including weather effects

Transfers between urban rail transit (URT) and its feeder modes represent a considerable barrier to its ridership and the network-wide usage of public transit. The aim of this research is to quantify the time-independent transfer penalty between URT system and feeder modes and to explore its variability by different factors. Based on Melbourne URT origin and destination survey data, this study focused on URT access and egress journeys and estimated URT feeder transfer penalties by formulating feeder mode choice models. With three-hourly weather data and demographical data introduced, this paper conducted disaggregate analyses to investigate the variability of URT feeder transfer penalty across weather conditions, trip types and individual characteristics. According to the model estimation results, the values of transfer penalty vary according to the direction of transfer and the preference ordering for different transfer combinations is URT-tram, URT-bus, tram-URT, bus-URT and auto-URT. It found that local weather elements in terms of air temperature and precipitation are significant factors resulting in the variability of the transfer perception by URT travellers. Transfer penalties for access journeys increase with the rise of air temperature. The non-linear effects of precipitation on URT feeder transfer penalties were observed. In addition, commuters perceive smaller transfer penalties than other travellers for all of the transfer combinations except for bus-URT transfers. Travelers from remote areas perceive smaller transfer penalties for access trips. Travellers’ loyalty to public transit restrains transfer penalties. The male travellers perceive higher transfer penalties than the female. The elderly travellers impose low transfer penalties to access journeys but high transfer penalties for egress journeys. Finally, the paper explored policy implications and details areas for future research.     

The use of travel time by rail passengers in Great Britain

In the face of a society that exhibits an increasing dependence on motorised mobility, the response of transport policy is one that remains grounded in the pursuit of quicker journey times. Less time spent travelling is assumed to convert ‘unproductive’ time into economically valuable time. This paper explores an alternative perspective on travel time. It seeks to examine the notion that travel time, rather than being wasted, can and does possess a positive utility. This brings into question the extent of assumed economic benefits derived from schemes and policies intended to reduce journey times. Specifically the paper reports on a national mail-back questionnaire survey of 26,221 rail passengers in Great Britain conducted in autumn 2004. The survey examined how passengers used their time on the train, how worthwhile that time use was considered to be and the role of mobile technologies. The results paint a picture of travel time use in which the behaviour and opinions of commuters, business travellers and leisure travellers are compared and contrasted. A substantial if not overwhelming incidence of positive utility of travel time use is revealed, especially for business travel but also for commuting and leisure travel. In light of the survey evidence the paper points to the challenge of understanding the notion of productivity and offers some critical comments concerning the current approach to economic appraisal in Britain.     

Walking short distances. The socioeconomic drivers for the use of proximity in everyday mobility in Barcelona

Many studies have found that cities, with residents that are co-located with jobs and services in compact and diverse urban environments, generate positive outputs for a number of areas of social policy, with issues ranging from environmental to social and including public health. This evidence supports promoting rich and thriving neighbourhoods in order to encourage short distance mobility. In this context, we use a wide travel survey (EMQ06), undertaken in Spain, to measure short-distance travelling within Barcelona and to assess how distinct social groups make use of the local scale for their everyday mobility. The effects of socioeconomics and access to transport are discussed, prior to applying a Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) method, in order to explore heterogeneity among the different social groups, in terms of local travelling. We found that nearly a quarter of all daily mobility in Barcelona is performed with a local trip, and that short trips are more frequently undertaken for personal purposes. Also, age, gender and access to private transport appear as significant factors. Overall, our results suggest that a proximity scale is being used by those groups with greater time–space constraints, such as working women or low income people without access to private vehicles, opening important implications on transport policy regarding the design of proximity-prone environments.