我国城市青少年消费特征分析

当前我国城市青少年的消费观念和消费结构都在悄悄地发生着转变。本文在市场调查的基础上，阐述我国城市青少年消费心理和消费行为特征，详尽地分析了影响青少年消费的各种因素。     

我国城市青少年消费特征分析

当前我国城市青少年的消费观念和消费结构都在悄悄地发生着转变.本文在市场调查的基础上,阐述我国城市青少年消费心理和消费行为特征,详尽地分析了影响青少年消费的各种因素.     

大学生消费心理解析

在对大学生的消费结构及消费行为特征进行调查和分析的基础上，从心理学的角度分析造成此种消费现象的原因，强调对大学生的消费行为应给予指导，从而帮助大学生树立正确的消费观念，引导其进行合理、适度、科学的消费。     

武汉市需水量的灰色预测

根据武汉市过去若干年用水量的统计资料,建立了武汉市多种用水量的灰色GM(1,1)模型。采用该模型对武汉市2010年、2015年及2020年的各类用水量进行了预测,给武汉市节水用水工作提供了重要的参考依据。验证结果表明,模型精度高,预测结果可信度强。     

ARIMA模型在GDP预测中的应用

本文采用ARIMA模型,对《武汉统计年鉴2006》提供的武汉市GDP的数据进行分析。结果显示,ARIMA(8,1,1)模型提供了比较准确的预测结果,可用于未来值的预测。     

从能源消费结构的变化看液化气船的发展前景

分析了２０１０年前世界和我国能源消费结构的变化趋势，优质能源气体燃料在能源消费结构中的比例稳步上升，结结ＬＰＧ（液化石油气）ＬＮＧ（液化天色气）船型发展回顾，展望了ＬＰＧ，ＬＮＧ船型的前景，本世纪末将出现液化气船订造高峰。     

媒体推介

<正> 《中国储运》2009年中国经济走势2009年是中国经济充满挑战和孕育机遇的一年。对中国来说,2009年的经济走势很大程度取决于政策的调整情况。从三大需求着手分析,应该注意以下问题:一是消费需求和消费结构升级潜伏减慢的可能。受股市走弱的影响,居民财产性收入增速减缓;随着企业困难增加和劳动工资成本的提高,就业增长预计也将受到一定影响,并进而影响居民收入增长。而经济趋冷的苗头,可能会从多方面影响到居民的消费信心,改变居民的消费预期。二是房地产投资和企业投资也可能趋缓。房地产和企业投资是市场引导投资的主体,其中房地产投资占全社会固定资产投资的1/5,企业投资占全部投资的比重也     

武汉市轨道交通拥挤收费可行性分析

文中采用微观调查数据,结合拥挤收费理论分析,研究了武汉市轨道交通拥堵现状,论证了武汉市征收轨道交通拥堵费的必要性、紧迫性和可行性。研究发现：1、武汉市轨道交通存在严重的高峰拥堵状况;2、武汉市轨道交通的高峰拥堵对人们生活造成负面影响,福利损失较大;3、大部分人愿意接受为减少拥堵而提高票价买单,拥堵收费可行。相应的政策建议为：武汉市应在继续扩大修建运行线路、拓宽运行范围和提高运输能力的同时,加强自身管理,适时采用分时定价策略,契合交通流量在时间和空间上的分布不均衡的特点,有效地缓解高峰拥堵问题。     

城市居民消费结构变动分析——基于十堰市的实证分析

利用因子分析的方法对十堰市城市居民近7年的消费结构的变动进行乐分析,剖析了十堰市近年来城市居民消费结构的特点和变动趋势,为市场分析决策提供乐参考。     

大悬挑钢箱梁三维仿真分析

以武汉市二环线大悬挑钢箱梁为例,采用三维有限元,建立以顶板、底板、腹板及横隔板等单元件组成的三维仿真模型,研究了各个单元件的受力和变形特征。结果表明：大悬挑钢箱梁面板横向应力水平数倍于常规钢箱梁,在支撑附近横向应力与纵向应力一样都为控制性因素;三维仿真模型也可分析支座横隔板和挑臂等局部构件的应力;根据结构的受力特征可有效地进行结构优化调整。     

An analysis of trends in passenger and freight transport energy consumption in India

This primary objective of this paper is to examine the causes for the change in energy consumption in the transport sector in India. The pattern of energy consumption and their causes for change are benchmarked against select countries. A mathematical model that decomposes changes in energy consumption to various factors has been used. The changes in the energy consumption are attributed to growth in transport volume, structural change or modal shift, and energy intensity. The analysis is conducted for passenger and freight transport separately. Results indicate that the growth in transport volume has been the main cause for increase in energy consumption for both passenger and freight transport in India despite the decline in energy intensity of various transport modes. Though not surprising for a growing economy like India, this poses a challenge for the future. Currently, India is a low carbon economy.     

基于规则格网公路DEM精度分析

简述了规则格网DEM的精度影响因素,重点讨论了规则格网DEM精度的理论模型(Li,1993b),利用数字地面模型完成了武汉新洲凤刘连接线路线设计,对精度进行了预测,并与实际统计结果进行了分析。     

Analysis of thirty years evolution of urban growth,transport demand and supply,energy consumption,greenhouse and pollutants emissions in Greater Cairo

The objective of the paper is to analyze evolution of urbanization, transport demand and supply in Greater Cairo (GC) over the last three decades of the 20th century. This is in addition to investigating the impact of city growth on energy consumption and emissions from transport. It utilizes results of 1971, 1978, 1987, 1998 and 2001 travel demand surveys, undertaken during the corresponding GC transport studies; each was published a year or two later. No further transport studies have been carried out in GC over the past decade and in view of the current political situation, it is not envisaged that similar studies will be undertaken in the near future. The analysis includes the evolution of daily trips, trip purpose share, modal share and number of cars. More recent trends for 2006/2007 vehicle registration by type and size are given. The evolution of transport supply covers projects until early 2012. In parallel estimates of the evolution of energy consumption and cost, emissions of greenhouse gases (CO₂) and pollutants (CO, HC and NO_x) are given for 1971/2001. The adopted estimation methodology is summarized. Comparative analysis of relevant evolution indexes and trends of growth between 1971 and 2001, taking the former as base year, is given. Land use and transport policies and projects that in some cases helped, directly or indirectly, to reduce traffic congestion, or at least prevented an increase, are addressed, commenting on their outcomes. Thus, transferable experience are useful to sister cities benefiting from successes and avoiding drawbacks. The evolution of the impact of GC metro on energy consumption and cost, and GHG emissions is given for 1987/2001, assuming the scenario “metro did not exist”. More recent impact analysis is given for 2007/2008, as the data allowed estimating traffic volumes that would have been added to the congested metro corridors under the above scenario; and the related fuel consumption and cost and GHGs. The paper ends with conclusions on GC evolution, learned lessons and suggests repeating similar work in other mega cities of the developing countries. Further research is emphasized, e.g., modeling the relationship between land use, transport, energy and emissions; modeling emission factors by vehicle type; and studying fuel-subsidy-reduction scenarios and their socio-economic effects.     

Cities on the move – Ten years after

The World Bank urban transport strategy review, “Cities on the Move” analyzed urban transport problems in developing and transitional economies and articulated a proposed strategy framework for national and city governments. This paper describes how the urban transport problems of the developing world have changed in the last decade and assesses the extent to which the strategies recommended in 2002 have been successfully implemented. It shows that progress has been widespread in some areas – particularly in mass transit analysis and investment and some environmental policies – and that there have developed some good planning and public transport practices in a smaller number of model cities. But more strategic institutional and policy issues, including the mobilization and regulation of private sector initiative in meeting infrastructure and public transport supply deficiencies, have tended to be poorly developed. Above all, the growth of medium sized cities with weak institutions and finance highlights the need for the international development institutions to put greater emphasis on helping those cities by dissemination of best practice in strategic transport planning and traffic management.     

Voyage-based statistical fuel consumption models of ocean-going container ships in Korea

ABSTRACT

Accurately estimating fuel consumption of ships is crucial for shipping companies, port authorities, and environmental protection agencies. The bottom-up approach is becoming increasingly popular because it can estimate ship fuel consumption by accounting for ship activity conditions, such as changes in voyage speed, time, and distance; however, its use is still limited when estimating ship fuel consumption. Ship-specific information, such as the daily fuel consumption rate for main and auxiliary engines for every vessel, is expensive to gather, and generally not collected from private shipping companies. To address this research gap, we develop simplified and composite ship fuel consumption models for ocean-going container ships by size using a regression model. To estimate the fuel consumption models for container ships, we rely on ship activity data, including average speed and sailing time, distance, and actual fuel consumption for main and auxiliary engines. This information is obtained from a major container shipping company in Korea. We estimate and validate the parameters associated with fuel consumption for five different container ship sizes, all of which are smaller than the Post-Panamax container ship (15,000 TEU and above).     

内河护岸工程的能耗定量评价

为指导护岸工程节能及形式选择,从护岸工程建设期全生命周期角度将总能耗定义为由生产阶段的材料能耗、运输阶段及施工阶段能耗组成,给出了各部分能耗分析的数学统计模型,并针对常州市区段航道改线项目中的4种主要护岸类型分别进行了对比分析。结果表明:护岸的形式对工程的能耗影响较大,以重力式混凝土灌砌块石护岸每延米耗能情况做为基准,衡重式护岸是其84.2%,悬臂式护岸是其107.3%,悬臂式驳岸+(绿化)护坡的形式仅为其67.0%。     

基于机器学习的船舶能耗智能预测方法验证分析

船舶能耗智能预测是实现船舶能效智能评估与优化决策的基础和前提。大数据、人工智能、机器学习等新兴技术促进了船舶能耗预测方法的不断发展,为分析不同基于机器学习的船舶能耗预测算法的预测精度与效果,进行了不同预测算法的实例验证分析。结合船舶油耗及其影响因素实船采集数据,通过采用不同机器学习算法对船舶能耗进行预测分析,验证了各算法的特点和优势,从而为选择合适的船舶能耗预测算法提供参考。     

Neural network-based fuel consumption estimation for container ships in Korea

ABSTRACT

Due to the outstanding strength of advanced machine-learning techniques, they have become increasingly common in predictive studies in recent years, particularly in predicting ship energy performance. In constructing predictive models, prior studies have mostly employed vessels’ technical parameters to establish machine-learning algorithms. To bridge this research gap and enable wider applications, this paper presents the design of a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP ANN) as a machine-learning technique to estimate ship fuel consumption. We utilized the real operational data from 100–143 container ships to estimate fuel consumption for five different container ships grouped by size. We compared the performance of two ANN models and two multiple-regression models. Four input parameters (sailing time, speed, cargo weight, and capacity) were included in the first ANN and the first regression model, while the other two models only consider two inputs from physical function. The mean absolute percentage error of the ANN models with four inputs was the smallest and less than those in extended statistical models, demonstrating the MLP’s superiority over the statistical model. The MLP ANN model can thus be applied to confirm the effectiveness of the slow-steaming method for achieving energy efficiency.     

Effects of the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative on the wine import logistics of China

China’s Belt and Road (BR) initiative is expected to facilitate international trade between the countries involved. In this study, we review the special requirements of wine logistics and the market growth potential of wine consumption in China. A model minimizing generalized logistical costs is developed and applied to wine imports in China, so that the best candidate cities in which to locate transport gateways and distribution centers can be identified. Our analysis suggests that the most preferred gateways are Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Hong Kong, which all have similar delivery costs. In comparison, Beijing and Chongqing have much higher delivery costs, mainly because they do not have good access to marine transport and/or efficient domestic distribution networks. For long-distance intercontinental transport of large volumes of wine, marine shipping remains the only viable delivery mode. However, wine distribution within China extensively uses air, road, and water transport. Therefore, cities with excellent multi-modal transport services are better positioned to become wine logistics gateways. Our study also highlights the importance of value-added services and good government support, which are important factors that influence distribution costs and quality.     

泉州湾秀涂人工岛建设对周边水沙条件的影响

通过分析泉州湾自然条件,采用数学模型从水动力、流态、冲淤等方面讨论了泉州湾秀涂人工岛建成前后对水沙环境的影响。研究表明:人工岛建成后减少纳潮量约2%,归顺了人工岛周边水流流态,但对局部流场有一定影响;人工岛建成后固化了部分浅滩沙源,宏观冲淤影响幅度可控。可为类似工程的开发与保护提供参考。