Microscopic pedestrian simulation model combined with a tactical model for route choice behaviour

This study proposes a microscopic pedestrian simulation model for evaluating pedestrian flow. Recently, several pedestrian models have been proposed to evaluate pedestrian flow in crowded situations for the purpose of designing facilities. However, current pedestrian simulation models do not explain the negotiation process of collision avoidance between pedestrians, which can be important for representing pedestrian behaviour in congested situations. This study builds a microscopic model of pedestrian behaviour using a two-player game and assuming that pedestrians anticipate movements of other pedestrians so as to avoid colliding with them. A macroscopic tactical model is also proposed to determine a macroscopic path to a given destination. The results of the simulation model are compared with experimental data and observed data in a railway station. Several characteristics of pedestrian flows such as traffic volume and travel time in multidirectional flows, temporal–spatial collision avoidance behaviour and density distribution in the railway station are reproduced in the simulation.     

Waiting zones for realistic modelling of pedestrian dynamics: A case study using two major German railway stations as examples

The value of a pedestrian stream simulation depends on its ability to reproduce natural behaviour of pedestrians in different situations. Most models assume that pedestrians are single-minded and constantly move towards their destinations. However, our observations at two major German railway stations made during field experiments and our analysis of video recordings at one of these stations revealed that in virtually every setting a significant proportion of pedestrians do not walk continuously. Instead, they occasionally change their route in order to visit certain locations and stand there for a period of time. By waiting, they often block walking pedestrians and thereby influence the overall dynamics.In this paper, we evaluate the impact of waiting pedestrians and propose a model for waiting pedestrians based on cellular automata. The model is able to reproduce the observed pedestrian behaviour. We illustrate the model with simulations of several real life scenarios for a major German railway station and show that during rush hour standing pedestrians may prolong walking time by up to nearly 20%. We also demonstrate how the developed model can be used for the analysis of infrastructures, and prediction of problematic areas in public spaces.     

Walking-distance introduced queueing model for pedestrian queueing system: Theoretical analysis and experimental verification

We have introduced the effect of delay in walking from the head of a queue to the service windows in the queueing model and obtain a suitable type of queueing system under various conditions by both computational simulation and theoretical analysis. When there are multiple service windows, the queueing theory indicates that mean waiting time in a fork-type queueing system (Fork), which collects pedestrians into a single queue, is smaller than that in a parallel-type queueing system (Parallel), i.e., queues for each service window. However, in our walking-distance introduced queueing model, we have examined that mean waiting time in Parallel becomes smaller when both the arrival probability of pedestrians and the effect of walking distance are large. Moreover, enhanced Forks, which shorten waiting time by reducing the effect of walking distance, are considered, and parts of our results are also verified by real queueing experiments.     

Modeling pedestrians’ road crossing behavior in traffic system micro-simulation in China

In many Chinese cities, pedestrian’s road crossing behavior is different from that of pedestrians in developed countries. This paper presents a pedestrian model for traffic system micro-simulation in China. Considering the high rate of signal non-compliance, we classify pedestrians into two types: law-obeying ones and opportunistic ones. Opportunistic ones decide whether to violate traffic signal during red man, depending on the states of some external factors (like policeman, vehicle flow and other pedestrians’ behaviors). Questionnaires were used to determine the proportions of these two types of pedestrians under different circumstances. In addition, a time gap distribution extracted from videotape were used to determine the criterion for pedestrians to decide whether to walk or wait when they conflict with vehicle flows. However, simulation results deviate from the data extracted from videotape in some degree. By adjusting the parameters on the basis of analyzing the occurrence of the deviations, the simulation results agree with the field results better. This model has represented the high rate of pedestrians’ red light running and the mixed characteristics of traffic flows in Chinese cities, and it may be applicable in the micro-simulation of traffic system in other developing cities.     

Performance comparison between pedestrian push-button and pre-timed pedestrian crossings at midblock: a Korean case study

Walking has been highlighted as an independent transportation mode as well as an access/egress mode to/from public transit to encourage the use of more sustainable transport systems. However, walking does not seem to have priority over other transportation modes, especially in areas where various modes of movement are in conflict. The pedestrian push-button system seems to be a solution to distribute the right of way. The focus of this study is on the performance issue of the pedestrian push-button. Specifically, this study deals with issues related to mid-block crossings and attempts to answer two questions: whose waiting time is longer at pre-timed and push-button crossings, pedestrians, or vehicles? and which system – pre-timed or push-button – is better in terms of total waiting time? According to our simulation analyses, if the pedestrian flow rate is less than 120, 85, and 70 ped/h for two-, three-, and four-lane roads, respectively, the push-button system is recommended.     

A model of pedestrians’ intended waiting times for street crossings at signalized intersections

For the purposes of both traffic-light control and the design of roadway layouts, it is important to understand pedestrian street-crossing behavior because it is not only crucial for improving pedestrian safety but also helps to optimize vehicle flow. This paper explores the mechanism of pedestrian street crossings during the red-man phase of traffic light signals and proposes a model for pedestrians’ waiting times at signalized intersections. We start from a simplified scenario for a particular pedestrian under specific traffic conditions. Then we take into account the interaction between vehicles and pedestrians via statistical unconditioning. We show that this in general leads to a U-shaped distribution of the pedestrians’ intended waiting time. This U-shaped distribution characterizes the nature of pedestrian street-crossing behavior, showing that in general there are a large proportion of pedestrians who cross the street immediately after arriving at the crossing point, and a large proportion of pedestrians who are willing to wait for the entire red-man phase. The U-shaped distribution is shown to reduce to a J-shaped or L-shaped distribution for certain traffic scenarios. The proposed statistical model was applied to analyze real field data.     

Modifying pedestrian behaviour

The paper reports on research using a new type of pedestrian waiting countdown timer to influence pedestrian behaviour at signalised pedestrian crossings in Dublin. The aim was to evaluate the impact of the timers on pedestrian crossing behaviour and in particular to see if it had any impact on the number of illegal crossings (during red man––do not walk signal). The timers inform the pedestrian how many seconds they have to wait until the green man appears. Two surveys were used to evaluate the impact: an attitude survey to evaluate the perception of the users and a video survey to estimate quantitatively the impacts on pedestrian behaviour but also to evaluate the awareness levels of the pedestrians towards the countdown timers. Some of the results include observance of more compliant behaviour by females and that pedestrians tend to overestimate their waiting time. Before the timers were installed 65% of pedestrians started to cross during the green man and amber phases but this rose to 76% after the timers were installed.     

Collection, spillback, and dissipation in pedestrian evacuation: A network-based method

We present a method of predicting pedestrian route choice behavior and physical congestion during the evacuation of indoor areas with internal obstacles. Under the proposed method, a network is first constructed by discretizing the space into regular hexagonal cells and giving these cells potentials before a modified cell transmission model is employed to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow in the network over time and space. Several properties of this cell transmission model are explored. The method can be used to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow over time and space in indoor areas with internal obstacles and to investigate the collection, spillback, and dissipation behavior of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. The cell transmission model is further extended to imitate the movements of multiple flows of pedestrians with different destinations. An algorithm based on generalized cell potential is also developed to assign the pedestrian flow.     

Microscopic modeling of large‐scale pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in the city of Madinah,Saudi Arabia

This paper presents a micro‐simulation modeling framework for evaluating pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in crowded crossing areas. The framework adopts a simulation approach that models vehicles and pedestrians at the microscopic level while satisfying two sets of constraints: (1) flow constraints and (2) non‐collision constraints. Pedestrians move across two‐directional cells as opposed to one‐dimensional lanes as in the case of vehicles; therefore, extra caution is considered when modeling the shared space between vehicles and pedestrians. The framework is used to assess large‐scale pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in a highly congested ring road in the City of Madinah that carries 20 000 vehicles/hour and crossed by 140 000 pedestrians/hour after a major congregational prayer. The quantitative and visual results of the simulation exhibits serious conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles, resulting in considerable delays for pedestrians crossing the road (9 minutes average delay) and slow traffic conditions (average speed <10 km/hour). The model is then used to evaluate the following three mitigating strategies: (1) pedestrian‐only phase; (2) grade separation; and (3) pedestrian mall. A matrix of operational measures of effectiveness for network‐wide performance (e.g., average travel time, average speed) and for pedestrian‐specific performance (e.g., mean speed, mean density, mean delay, mean moving time) is used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed strategies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An agent-based multimodal simulation model for capacity planning of a cross-border transit facility

Cross-border transit facilities constitute major public investment, and thus must serve the long-term needs of the communities, such as providing access to schools and businesses, contributing to a shared regional culture and lifestyle, fostering international trade, and supporting jobs for the region’s residents. Numerous studies have been conducted to evaluate the economic implications of vehicular flow delays at border crossings, however none of the studies focused on assessing cross-border flow of bus passengers and pedestrians. Since pedestrians are considered to be autonomous, intelligent, and perceptive, it is a challenging task to predict pedestrian movement and behavior in comparison to vehicular flows which follow a specific set of traffic rules. This paper presents a multiagent based multimodal simulation model to evaluate the capacity and performance of a cross-border transit facility. The significance of this research is the use of dynamic mode choice functionality in the model, which allows an individual person to make instantaneous choices between available modes of transportation. The scope of interest of the paper is limited to simulating access interface, circulation areas, ancillary and processing facilities. The developed model was calibrated to ensure realistic performance, and validated against specific performance criteria such as throughput per processing facility. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the developed simulation model, capacity and operational planning of a pedestrian transit facility was performed. The relative performance of alternative design or configuration was evaluated using the level of service criteria. Lastly, the effectiveness of each proposed capacity or operational improvement strategy was compared to the “do-nothing” scenario.     

A dynamic evacuation model for pedestrian–vehicle mixed-flow networks

In urban emergency evacuation, a potentially large number of evacuees may depend either on transit or other modes, or need to walk a long distance, to access their passenger cars. In the process of approaching the designated pick-up points or parking areas for evacuation, the massive number of pedestrians may cause tremendous burden to vehicles in the roadway network. Responsible agencies often need to contend with congestion incurred by massive vehicles emanating from parking garages, evacuation buses generated from bus stops, and the conflicts between evacuees and vehicles at intersections. Hence, an effective plan for such evacuation needs to concurrently address both the multi-modal traffic route assignment and the optimization of network signal controls for mixed traffic flows. This paper presents an integrated model to produce the optimal distribution of vehicle and pedestrian flows, and the responsive network signal plan for massive mixed pedestrian–vehicle flows within the evacuation zone. The proposed model features its effectiveness in accounting for multiple types of evacuation vehicles, the interdependent relations between pedestrian and vehicle flows via some conversion locations, and the inevitable conflicts between intersection turning vehicle and pedestrian flows. An illustrating example concerning an evacuation around the M&T stadium area has been presented, and the results indicate the promising properties of our proposed model, especially on reflecting the complex interactions between vehicle and pedestrian flows and the favorable use of high-occupancy vehicles for evacuation operations.     

Modelling negative interactions among pedestrians in high density situations

Situations characterised by the presence of a high density of pedestrians involved in negative interactions (e.g. flows in opposite directions) often represent a problematic scenario for simulation models, especially those taking a discrete approach to the representation and management of spatial aspects of the environment. While these situations can be relatively infrequent, and even if architects, event organisers and crowd managers actually try to prevent them as much as possible, they simply cannot be neglected and they actually represent interesting situations to be analysed by means of simulation. The paper presents specific extensions to a floor-field Cellular Automata pedestrian model that are specifically aimed at supporting the simulation of high density situations comprising negative interactions among pedestrians without incurring in the traditional limits of discrete approaches. The models are formally described and experimented in experimental and real world situations.     

Survey of pedestrians' crossing time at non‐signalized mid‐block street crossing

At non‐signalized mid‐block street crossings in China's cities, pedestrians often weave between motor vehicle flows. This paper investigated the influence patterns of the gender and age of pedestrians, the presence of a pedestrian group, vehicles' interference and the crossing direction on the crossing time at non‐signalized mid‐block street crossings in Changsha, China. The results show that the crossing speed is approximately 1–1.1 m/s; the crossing time increases with increasing age, and the crossing speed of a pedestrian will be quicker when the time gap between the pedestrian and the oncoming vehicle is smaller if he/she decides to cross. This paper also analyzed the crossing time pattern when pedestrians cross lane by lane and found that pedestrians spend the most time crossing the first lane and the least time crossing the middle lane, regardless of whether they are crossing from the curb to the central island or from the central island to the curb. The crossing speed is an important input to the design of pedestrian facilities, so these findings can be applied to the assessment of pedestrian crossing safety in China's cities and can provide a basis for the design of pedestrian crossing facilities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A macroscopic loading model for time-varying pedestrian flows in public walking areas

A macroscopic loading model applicable to time-dependent and congested pedestrian flows in public walking areas is proposed. Building on the continuum theory of pedestrian flows and the cell transmission model for car traffic, an isotropic framework is developed that can describe the simultaneous and potentially conflicting propagation of multiple pedestrian groups. The model is formulated at the aggregate level and thus computationally cheap, which is advantageous for studying large-scale problems. A detailed analysis of several basic flow patterns including counter- and cross flows, as well as two generic scenarios involving a corner- and a bottleneck flow is carried out. Various behavioral patterns ranging from disciplined queueing to impatient jostling can be realistically reproduced. Following a systematic model calibration, two case studies involving a Swiss railway station and a Dutch bottleneck flow experiment are presented. A comparison with the social force model and pedestrian tracking data shows a good performance of the proposed model with respect to predictions of travel time and density.     

Pedestrian gap acceptance for mid-block street crossing

Abstract

This paper investigates pedestrians' traffic gap acceptance for mid-block street crossing in urban areas. A field survey was carried out at an uncontrolled mid-block location in Athens, Greece. Pedestrians' decisions and traffic conditions were videotaped in terms of the size of traffic gaps rejected or accepted, waiting times and crossing attempts and vehicle speeds. A lognormal regression model was developed to examine pedestrian gap acceptance. It was found that gap acceptance was better explained by the distance from the incoming vehicle, rather than its speed. Other significant effects included illegal parking, presence of other pedestrians and incoming vehicles’ size. A binary logistic regression model was developed to examine the effect of traffic gaps and other parameters on pedestrians' decisions to cross the street or not. The results reveal that this decision is affected by the distance from the incoming vehicles and the waiting times of pedestrians.     

Methodology for the qualitative evaluation of pedestrian crossings at road junctions with traffic lights

The aim of this work is to test the application of a method for making a qualitative evaluation of pedestrian crossings, based on the methodology of Khisty (Transportation Research Record 1438:45–50, 1994). The study identifies the Performance Measures (Comfort, Safety, System Continuity), with their respective attributes (waiting time, space available while waiting to cross, number of pedestrians, one-way or two-way street, state of the road surface, road width, vehicle speed, visibility, lighting conditions, guardrails, absence of obstacles in vicinity, state of sidewalks, lowered kerb, pedestrian signals, central island), which may be utilized in the evaluation. The first step was to ascertain the relative importance, from the point of view of the pedestrian, of the Performance Measures employed. Then the level-of-service (LOS), as perceived by the users, was determined for each of the pedestrian crossings in the survey, on the basis of the users’ level of satisfaction with each attribute. Khisty’s methodology makes it possible to relate the overall level of satisfaction with a qualitative LOS for the pedestrian facility under analysis. The chosen methodology was adapted to the Brazilian context, in a case study carried out in the city of São Paulo (Brazil), in collaboration with the local Traffic Engineering Corporation (Companhia de Engenharia de Tráfego, CET-SP). To this end, four pedestrian crossings at road junctions with traffic lights were analysed. The qualitative LOS obtained were compared to the quantitative LOS, calculated according to the Highway Capacity Manual (TRB 2000).     

Modeling the effect of electric vehicle adoption on pedestrian traffic safety: An agent-based approach

When operated at low speeds, electric and hybrid vehicles have created pedestrian safety concerns in congested areas of various city centers, because these vehicles have relatively silent engines compared to those of internal combustion engine vehicles, resulting in safety issues for pedestrians and cyclists due to the lack of engine noise to warn them of an oncoming electric or hybrid vehicle. However, the driver behavior characteristics have also been considered in many studies, and the high end-prices of electric vehicles indicate that electric vehicle drivers tend to have a higher prosperity index and are more likely to receive a better education, making them more alert while driving and more likely to obey traffic rules. In this paper, the positive and negative factors associated with electric vehicle adoption and the subsequent effects on pedestrian traffic safety are investigated using an agent-based modeling approach, in which a traffic micro-simulation of a real intersection is simulated in 3D using AnyLogic software. First, the interacting agents and dynamic parameters are defined in the agent-based model. Next, a 3D intersection environment is created to integrate the agent-based model into a visual simulation, where the simulation records the number of near-crashes occurring in certain pedestrian crossings throughout the virtual time duration of a year. A sensitivity analysis is also carried out with 9000 subsequent simulations performed in a supercomputer to account for the variation in dynamic parameters (ambient sound level, vehicle sound level, and ambient illumination). According to the analysis, electric vehicles have a 30% higher pedestrian traffic safety risk than internal combustion engine vehicles under high ambient sound levels. At low ambient sound levels, however, electric vehicles have only a 10% higher safety risk for pedestrians. Low levels of ambient illumination also increase the number of pedestrians involved in near-crashes for both electric vehicles and combustion engine vehicles.     

Prohibited–permitted right-turn phasing strategy based on capacity analysis of right-turn movements

In traffic-crowded metropolitan areas, such as Shanghai and Beijing in China, right-turn vehicles that operate with a permitted phase at signalized intersections are normally permitted to filter through large numbers of pedestrians and bicycles. To alleviate such conflicts and improve safety, traffic engineers in Shanghai introduced a prohibited–permitted right-turn operation, adding a subphase to the permitted phase in which right-turns are prohibited. Unfortunately, the prohibited subphase would reduce the capacity of right-turn movements when it prohibits right turns even if there are few pedestrians and bicycles crossing the street. This paper aims at quantifying the impact of both non-vehicular flows and the prohibited subphase on the right-turn capacity, and then proposes a strategy to determine appropriate prohibited–permitted right-turn operation that minimizes the capacity reduction caused by the prohibited subphase. To achieve this goal, we improved the pedestrian and bicycle adjustment factor described in the Highway Capacity Manual by taking into account: (1) the variety in space competition between pedestrians and bicycles, and (2) the effect of two conflict zones in each phase on right-turn operation. In addition, we revised the capacity estimation model in the Highway Capacity Manual, and developed a model based on bicycle/pedestrian volume fluctuation to describe the capacity reduction due to both non-vehicular flows and the prohibited subphase. Furthermore, we proposed a timing strategy for the onset and duration of appropriate prohibited subphase. When bicycle and pedestrian volumes are low, the actuated strategy turns to the permitted phase. When these volumes are moderate, the strategy turns to the prohibited–permitted operation. With the volumes increasing, the prohibited subphase onset advances and duration increases. In these two scenarios, the new strategy has higher right-turn capacity than the current pretimed prohibited–permitted operation. Unfortunately, when bicycle and pedestrian volumes are high, the strategy yields similar right-turn capacity. However, the new prohibited subphase has less potential vehicle–bicycle and vehicle–pedestrian conflicts.     

Optimal control strategies with an extended cell transmission model for massive vehicular‐pedestrian mixed flows in the evacuation zone

This paper presents an integrated model to design routing and signal plans for massive mixed pedestrian‐vehicle flows within the evacuation zone. The proposed model, with its embedded formulations for pedestrians and vehicles in the same evacuation network, can effectively take their potential conflicts into account and generate the optimal routing strategies to guide evacuees toward either the pickup locations or their parking areas during an evacuation. The proposed model, enhancing the cell transmission model with the notion of sub‐cells, mainly captures the complex movements in the vehicle‐pedestrian flows and can concurrently optimizes both the signals for pedestrian‐vehicle flows and the movement paths for evacuees. An illustrating example concerning the evacuation around the M&T Bank Stadium area has been used to demonstrate the application potential of the proposed model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.