基于交通渗流理论的城市轨道交通网络动态服务瓶颈识别

为准确把握轨道交通网络化运营的新态势和新要求,力求轨道交通系统在大客流下做到运输能力和服务水平的供需匹配,需对轨道交通网络的关键瓶颈进行有效识别和疏解。本文借鉴交通渗流理论,提出了限制网络整体服务水平和连通效能的动态服务瓶颈的识别方法,该方法综合考虑了城市轨道交通系统的网络特性、客流特性和服务特性。其中针对区间服务水平状态,该方法提出了定量评定的复合指标模型。以成都地铁线网为案例,基于实际客流运营数据,构建动态网络,识别服务瓶颈,验证了方法的适用性和准确性,对城市轨道交通系统运营管理有实际指导意义。     

Multi-modal and demand-responsive passenger transport systems: a modelling framework with embedded control systems

The LITRES-2 modelling system provides a framework for investigating the performance of urban passenger transport systems, with particular attention to demand-responsive transport modes and traveller information technologies. The modes covered include conventional timetabled services (buses, trains etc.), taxis (both single- and multiple-hire), and other demand-responsive services. Tables of estimated aggregate demand are disaggregated so as to produce a stream of fully-articulated travel-requests. Individual requests are resolved as single- or multiple-leg journeys, through the use of request-broking and journey-planning modules that seek to minimise travellers' generalised costs. Journey-legs allocated to demand-responsive modes are handled by a fleet-scheduling module which includes provision for “instantaneous” as well as advance-notice bookings, and for contingent situations such as breakdowns and passenger no-shows. The fleet-scheduling and journey-planning modules are designed as embedded control systems and are intended for use in real-time as well as modelling applications. The paper describes the main analytical and procedural components of LITRES-2, and assesses some methodological issues arising from experience in recent planning studies. The system appears to be well suited for use in modelling situations where the critical issues are concerned with the supply rather than demand side of transportation activity.     

广西交通科技资源共享平台建设探讨

文章针对广西交通科技项目管理系统现状,分析了建设交通科技资源共享平台的必要性,阐述了交通科技资源共享平台建设的关键技术、创新点及主要内容,指出该共享平台的建设可改善和提高交通运输科技项目质量及监管水平。     

Feasibility study of aerial ropeway transit in the Holy City of Makkah

The planning and implementation of a multimodal transportation system in the Holy City of Makkah to handle the huge volumes of pilgrims to the City is not a straightforward mission, as Makkah poses numerous challenges including its unique seasonal demand patterns, mountainous terrain, and limited space. Aerial ropeway transit (ART), a promising transport technology solution, could be an important component of this system. This paper presents the results of a technical and economic feasibility study to explore the potential of introducing ART service in Makkah. The study reveals that, overall, ART service on some corridors in Makkah is technically feasible, and with some necessary enforcement measures to attract ridership could become a profitable transportation investment. Specifically, the study recommends using ART for special user groups and service/emergency crews during peak seasons and opening ART to the public as a premium service during the off-peak season.     

Policy analysis of third party electronic coupons for public transit fares

Mobile technologies are generating new business models for urban transport systems, as is evident from recent startups cropping up from the private sector. Public transport systems can make more use of mobile technologies than just for measuring system performance, improving boarding times, or for analyzing travel patterns. A new transaction model is proposed for public transport systems where travelers are allowed to pre-book their fares and trade that demand information to private firms. In this public-private partnership model, fare revenue management is outsourced to third party private firms such as big box retail or large planned events (such as sports stadiums and theme parks), who can issue electronic coupons to travelers to subsidize their fares. This e-coupon pricing model is analyzed using marginal cost theory for the transit service and shown to be quite effective for monopolistic coupon rights, particularly for demand responsive transit systems that feature high cost fares, non-commute travel purposes, and a closed access system with existing pre-booking requirements. However, oligopolistic scenarios analyzed using game theory and network economics suggest that public transport agencies need to take extreme care in planning and implementing such a policy. Otherwise, they risk pushing an equivalent tax on private firms or disrupting the urban economy and real estate values while increasing ridership.     

Demand management as an element of transportation policy: using carrots and sticks to influence travel behavior

This paper describes the characteristics of transportation demand management. The origin of transportation demand management (TDM) as it has evolved in the US is related to federal policy initiatives that first focused on improving the efficiency of the urban transportation system through operational improvements, and then incorporated concerns such as air quality and energy conservation into the transportation planning process. The paper then examines the effectiveness of TDM actions, and concludes that those actions most likely to increase the “price” of travel for single occupant vehicle use will be most effective. The paper identifies several strategies for improving the effectiveness of TDM actions in the context of regional transportation planning, including: incorporating TDM as part of the solutions for regional transportation planning, linking TDM to land use decisions, making the costs of travel more apparent to the user, and making TDM implementation more palatable to the general public.     

Group-based geographic information systems for transportation improvement site selection

Transportation improvement site selection exemplifies transportation decision making that is collaborative in nature and geographically based. Such decision-making is part of a broad societal trend toward shared and participatory discussions about public investment. Perspectives from three different transportation decision contexts in the Puget Sound Region of Washington State, a regional council, a county government and a public–private Coalition group, are combined with a literature review to develop a decision task model that summarizes the need for information technology support during transportation improvement site selection. The task model guides the development of a decision support system requirement specification that outlines integrated information capabilities provided by geographic information system (GIS) and group support system (GSS) technologies. Together, GIS and GSS capabilities contribute to evolving group-based GIS. The kinds of capabilities a group-based GIS could offer in addressing the needs are identified. A report on the use of a prototype, group-based GIS called Spatial Group Choice highlights the possibilities in an inter-organizational coalition decision context. The conclusions discuss needs for future technology developments and social–behavioral science studies on these developments.     

Rail-truck multimodal freight collaboration: a statistical analysis of freight-shipper perspectives

Due to the effects of congestion, capacity reduction of truck-freight carriers, growing freight transportation demand, and increasing social and environmental concerns, there is a critical need for freight shippers to improve shipping quality and reduce transportation costs. Rail-truck multimodal freight collaboration can potentially address this need. In this study, we explore freight-shipper perspectives relating to the factors that may foster or impede their usage of rail-truck multimodal freight collaboration services, and the correlations of their operational and behavioral characteristics with these factors. The study provides insights to rail and truck carriers on collaboration mechanisms that can address the needs of freight shippers, including adopting synergistic technology to improve in-transit visibility, accommodating non-containerized cargo, improving the transshipment process, designing service quality control strategies, and constructing investment and revenue-sharing plans.     

An Internet-based geographic information system that integrates data,models and users for transportation applications

This paper is concerned with the development of an Internet-based geographic information system (GIS) that brings together spatio-temporal data, models and users in a single efficient framework to be used for a wide range of transportation applications – planning, engineering and operational. The functional requirements of the system are outlined taking into consideration the various enabling technologies, such as Internet tools, large-scale databases and distributed computing systems. Implementation issues as well as the necessary models needed to support the system are briefly discussed.     

Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: A case study in California

This paper investigates how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (i.e., 80in50). A Kaya framework that decomposes greenhouse gas emissions into the product of population, transport intensity, energy intensity, and carbon intensity is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. Each transportation subsector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, and off-road vehicles, is analyzed to identify specific mitigation options and understand its potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Scenario analysis shows that, while California’s 2050 target is ambitious, it can be achieved in transport if a concerted effort is made to change travel behavior and the vehicles and fuels that provide mobility. While no individual ‘‘Silver Bullet” strategy exists that can achieve the goals, a portfolio approach that combines strategies could yield success. The 80in50 scenarios show the impacts of advanced vehicle and fuels technologies as well as the role of travel demand reduction, which can significantly reduce energy and resource requirements and the level of technology development needed to meet the target.     

Perspectives on the commercial development of landing gear health monitoring systems

The development of health monitoring technologies for aerospace systems creates a number of challenges for the community of engineers and technical specialists as they seek to integrate the technology into well defined working practices. These challenges do not just extend to the technical, but require a number of commercial questions to be addressed. It is of vital importance, that there is a clearly identified need for aerospace health monitoring, both from a technological and commercial viewpoint. If these needs cannot be identified, then any attempt for marketing health monitoring as a necessary future technological requirement is doomed for failure. Health monitoring technology will need to either deliver significant cost saving benefits to the aircraft operator or demonstrated increases in aircraft safety. The objective of the paper is to provide an assessment of the commercial benefits and development of aircraft landing gear health monitoring. The commercial need and challenges for health monitoring systems are explored in this paper within the context of a changing aerospace maintenance industry and the role in which new systems technology will play. The key findings of the research study are that within the aerospace industry there is a desired paradigm shift within aircraft maintenance towards offering maintenance systems with predictive capabilities. This maintenance revolution will not just incorporate new technologies, but will result in aircraft maintenance packages tailored towards individual customer requirements. The study illustrates the state-of-the-art in health monitoring currently restricts aerospace integration and a number of key technical and commercial issues need to be addressed. Predictive health monitoring offers a variety of commercial benefits for maintenance providers, aircraft operators and manufacturers. However, in order for these benefits to be realised increased transparency in maintenance related information is required between these key players.     

Geographic information systems for transportation in perspective

The late 1980s saw the first widespread use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in transportation research and management. Due to the specific requirements of transportation applications and of the rather late adoption of this information technology in transportation, research has been directed toward enhancing existing GIS approaches to enable the full range of capabilities needed in transportation research and management. This paper places the concept of transportation GIS in the broader perspective of research in GIS and Geographic Information Science. The emphasis is placed on the requirements specific of the transportation domain of application of this emerging information technology as well as on core research challenges.     

Transit-oriented autonomous vehicle operation with integrated demand-supply interaction

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent potentially disruptive and innovative changes to public transportation (PT) systems. However, the exact interplay between AV and PT is understudied in existing research. This paper proposes a systematic approach to the design, simulation, and evaluation of integrated autonomous vehicle and public transportation (AV + PT) systems. Two features distinguish this research from the state of the art in the literature: the first is the transit-oriented AV operation with the purpose of supporting existing PT modes; the second is the explicit modeling of the interaction between demand and supply.We highlight the transit-orientation by identifying the synergistic opportunities between AV and PT, which makes AVs more acceptable to all the stakeholders and respects the social-purpose considerations such as maintaining service availability and ensuring equity. Specifically, AV is designed to serve first-mile connections to rail stations and provide efficient shared mobility in low-density suburban areas. The interaction between demand and supply is modeled using a set of system dynamics equations and solved as a fixed-point problem through an iterative simulation procedure. We develop an agent-based simulation platform of service and a discrete choice model of demand as two subproblems. Using a feedback loop between supply and demand, we capture the interaction between the decisions of the service operator and those of the travelers and model the choices of both parties. Considering uncertainties in demand prediction and stochasticity in simulation, we also evaluate the robustness of our fixed-point solution and demonstrate the convergence of the proposed method empirically.We test our approach in a major European city, simulating scenarios with various fleet sizes, vehicle capacities, fare schemes, and hailing strategies such as in-advance requests. Scenarios are evaluated from the perspectives of passengers, AV operators, PT operators, and urban mobility system. Results show the trade off between the level of service and the operational cost, providing insight for fleet sizing to reach the optimal balance. Our simulated experiments show that encouraging ride-sharing, allowing in-advance requests, and combining fare with transit help enable service integration and encourage sustainable travel. Both the transit-oriented AV operation and the demand-supply interaction are essential components for defining and assessing the roles of the AV technology in our future transportation systems, especially those with ample and robust transit networks.     

Estimating the demand for urban bus travel

The disadvantages of conventional transportation study models, in particular their large data requirements and their weaknesses in dealing with changes in trip generation rates have led to a need for a simple model that can quickly and at low cost examine alternative public transport strategies.This paper investigates simple economic models of bus demand, examines alternative variables that can be used and discusses some alternative model forms. It demonstrates the results of a model using data from twelve urban bus operators in Britain and compares the results with those from other types of study. The model utilises fare and service quality elasticities to explain the decline in passengers on urban bus services, and derives an average elasticity with respect to fare changes of –0.31 and with respect to service quality changes of +0.62. It is estimated that fare rises accounted for 13% of the 43% decline in passengers over the last fifteen years, vehicle mileage reductions for 14.3% and that only 15.7% was due to such factors as rising car ownership which are often given as the cause of declining bus patronage.The results, by showing that passengers are far more sensitive to changes in service than they are to fare rises, are a useful guide to the broader public transport policy issues, and the paper concludes that the model does provide a useful method of forecasting public transport demand at a strategic level. Further work is needed, however, to establish more accurate forecasts for different types of passenger and studies are now being undertaken to establish these and to construct an operational forecasting model that can be applied with only limited data requirements     

Traffic Performance Models for Dynamic Traffic Assignment: An Assessment of Existing Models

Abstract

This paper provides a review of the traffic performance models for dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) and it identifies the strength and weakness of existing models. Requirements for traffic performance models are identified and various forms of existing traffic performance models for DTA are reviewed and analysed according to the requirements. Non‐linear travel time models are shown to have some deficiencies that make them unsuitable for the analysis of time‐varying transportation networks. Even though linear‐type travel time models are identified as good candidates for the analysis of dynamic transportation networks, they have limitations from the practical point of view that travel time increases only linearly with the amount of traffic on the link. This poses a dilemma and it seems to be one whose resolution is an imminent precondition for DTA modelling to progress in a way that is both theoretically coherent and plausible in practical terms.     

Robust models for transportation service network design

In this paper robust models are presented for the transportation service network design problem, using the ferry service network design problem as an example application. The base assumption is that only the mean and an upper bound on the passenger demand are known. In one robust model, this information is supplemented by a lower bound on the demand, whereas in a second robust model, the assumption is made that the variance of the demand is known, in addition to the mean and upper bound. The relationship between the two models is investigated and characterized analytically. A case study using the ferry service in Hong Kong is provided to illustrate the models.     

The characteristics,uses and potentials of taxicab transportation

Taxicab transportation is a significant segment of urban transportation. Taxicabs, along with other “paratransit” type systems, provide service with characteristics between the automobile and mass transportation. Consequently, they are well suited to a number of special purposes. Taxicabs currently serve a wide range of trip purposes by travellers with varied socio-economic characteristics. Taxicab transportation is most attractive for serving lower density area and off-peak travel particularly where there is only minimal mass transit service. In this regard, taxicabs are a supplement to conventional mass transit. The use of taxicabs for collection and distribution functions for both passengers and freight is gradually being realized. The multiple use of taxicabs offers advantages of increasing taxicab productivity and reducing individual trip costs. Many of the problems related to taxicabs are regulatory and institutional in nature. Unless these constraints are eased or removed, wider application of taxicab transportation, including productivity gains, will be limited.     

旅游交通融合发展研究——以福建省为例

为深入落实"交通强国"战略和实现"全域旅游"目标,推动旅游与交通深度融合发展,需做好旅游交通体系发展的顶层设计。通过分析旅游交通面临的问题,提出了旅游交通融合发展的理念。将福建省作为案例,针对福建旅游交通网络面临的问题,提出了"快旅慢游"旅游交通体系的建设目标、实施方案及保障措施。依托高铁、民航、邮轮和公路等综合立体交通网络,提出了"一带三环多放射"旅游交通"快旅"通道的发展思路;通过特色旅游产品开发、旅游服务质量提升等方面,规划了"慢游"微循环旅游交通的发展方案,构建了福建省多层次、综合立体的旅游交通体系发展新格局。以期通过福建省旅游交通融合发展案例研究,为其他省市旅游交通融合发展借鉴参考。     

基于分布式计算机的智能相机在城市交通中的研究与应用

我国逐步开始将城市建设与互联网技术进行高度融合以打造智能城市。智能城市建设过程中,智能交通是重要一环,当前我国交通视频监控系统普遍是通过道路两旁的摄像头拍摄获得路况图像信息,这种方式虽然是解决了一些问题,但是不能满足智能城市的建设需求。本文总结和研究了分布式智能相机的一些关键技术,得出嵌入式设备高效率、低耗能的优点使其在交通监控领域得到了越来越广泛的应用,基于分布式计算机设计了智能相机的分布式智能城市交通系统,提出了一系列有益于提升系统运行的具有应用前景的算法,用来解决使用重叠视野进行跟踪和稀疏相机网络中的有效跟踪。     

Stochastic dynamic switching in fixed and flexible transit services as market entry-exit real options

The first analytical stochastic and dynamic model for optimizing transit service switching is proposed for “smart transit” applications and for operating shared autonomous transit fleets. The model assumes a region that requires many-to-one last mile transit service either with fixed-route buses or flexible-route, on-demand buses. The demand density evolves continuously over time as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The optimal policy is determined by solving the switching problem as a market entry and exit real options model. Analysis using the model on a benchmark computational example illustrates the presence of a hysteresis effect, an indifference band that is sensitive to transportation system state and demand parameters, as well as the presence of switching thresholds that exhibit asymmetric sensitivities to transportation system conditions. The proposed policy is computationally compared in a 24-hour simulation to a “perfect information” set of decisions and a myopic policy that has been dominant in the flexible transit literature, with results that suggest the proposed policy can reduce by up to 72% of the excess cost in the myopic policy. Computational experiments of the “modular vehicle” policy demonstrate the existence of an option premium for having flexibility to switch between two vehicle sizes.