A planning methodology for intelligent urban transportation systems

Recent developments in intelligent transportation systems pose new challenges and opportunities for urban transportation planning. To meet these challenges and to exploit these opportunities, a framework for a new transportation planning methodology has been developed. The methodology operates in a computer environment, called PLANiTS (Planning and Analysis Integration for Intelligent Transportation Systems), designed to facilitate the entire planning process form problem identification, through idea generation and analysis, on to prioritization and programming. To assist in problem identification, PLANiTS provides graphic representation of current conditions, including traffic, air pollution, accidents, and projections of future conditions. A computerized knowledge base, containing information about possible strategies and their effects, and a model base, containing transportation and other analysis models, are used to guide the user in identifying potentially effective strategies and performing the appropriate analysis. To facilitate the use of these tools, PLANiTS provides computer support of group processes such as brainstorming, deliberation, and consensus seeking. PLANiTS is designed for use in urban transportation planning at the local, regional, and state levels; it is intended to support a variety of participants in the planning process including transportation professionals, decision makers in transportation agencies (often local elected officials), citizens, and interest groups. Recognizing that transportation planning is essentially a deliberative, political process, PLANiTS is designed to inform and facilitate, but not replace, the political decision-making process.     

Toward criteria in the development of urban transportation systems

Improved criteria are necessary to aid in determining awards of federal funds for metropolitan transit projects. Commuting is the main use for public transit. Thus a primary objective of an urban transit system should be to provide a flexible and balanced set of options to the workers in the metropolitan area for their journey to work. This paper discusses various facets of an appropriate balance among the three modes: rapid rail, bus, and automobile. Three cities are selected for further analysis: Baltimore, Kansas City, and Phoenix. These cities represent different stages in economic-transportation development, and also present different spatial patterns of residence and employment. The applicability of rapid rail transit to each city is examined in view of central city worker concentration and recent trends.     

Mobility evaluation for urban public transportation

Summary

This paper has reported on a study of relative opportunity—not absolute opportunity. Minimum absolute standards for mobility or accessibility are difficult to justify. Some additional study into the development and application of absolute mobility standards may be warranted.

The application of the mobility evaluation model has primarily focused upon a corridor line‐haul system. Conclusions suggest that such a system will not markedly improve existing transit mobility levels in either the peak hour or the off‐peak. The experimental work has verified this conclusion, and more importantly, it has detailed quantitatively the exact levels and spatial distribution of mobility improvements. However, this study does not include a comprehensive analysis of all methods of mobility enhancement, nor does it undertake a comparison of alternative means of mobility improvement. Certainly other methods to improve access to opportunities should be explored before policy considerations are finalized. These methods include other transit solutions, land use alternatives, socio‐economic policies, and other‐mode transportation alternatives. The accessibility technique and mobility indices approach appears to have general applicability in the analysis of optimal strategies for system evaluation.

Of interest is an examination of alternative feeder transit systems to the corridor line. Additional research with the model might point out the maximum mobility effects expected through improved collector service in the suburbs, with corridor line‐haul to the CBD.

The indices are also readily available for a comparison of mobility patterns for different urban areas. Application of the program to transit and socio‐economic data for a set of cities would yield an indication of the relative mobility levels provided. Such data might be considered as an evaluation criterion for future transit funding by federal officials.

In addition, the model is currently being considered by UMTA as a tool to aid in the evaluation of the equitable distribution of transit system benefits as defined in Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.²⁵ The mobility output would serve as an indicator of the levels‐of‐service provided to certain disadvantaged urban groups. For this application the computer model is being altered to achieve compatability with the Transportation Planning System (UTPS) computer model package developed by UMTA.     

Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals

Recent empirical studies have found widespread inaccuracies in traffic forecasts despite the fact that travel demand forecasting models have been significantly improved over the past few decades. We suspect that an intrinsic selection bias may exist in the competitive project appraisal process, in addition to the many other factors that contribute to inaccurate traffic forecasts. In this paper, we examine the potential for selection bias in the governmental process of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) transportation project appraisals. Although the simultaneous consideration of multiple criteria is typically used in practice, traffic flow estimate is usually a key criterion in these appraisals. For the purposes of this paper, we focus on the selection bias associated with the highest flow estimate criterion. We develop two approaches to quantify the level and chance of inaccuracy caused by selection bias: the expected value approach and the probability approach. The expected value approach addresses the question “to what extent is inaccuracy caused by selection bias?”. The probability approach addresses the question “what is the chance of inaccuracy due to selection bias?”. The results of this analysis confirm the existence of selection bias when a government uses the highest traffic forecast estimate as the priority criterion for BOT project selection. In addition, we offer some insights into the relationship between the extent/chance of inaccuracy and other related factors. We do not argue that selection bias is the only reason for inaccurate traffic forecasts in BOT projects; however, it does appear that it could be an intrinsic factor worthy of further attention and investigation.     

关于莱芜市城乡公交一体化发展模式及措施

分析了莱芜市城乡一体化的发展情况,结合莱芜市城乡社会经济的特点,形成了市区公交、市镇公交、镇村公交三个相互联系、相互贯通的城乡公交一体化网络,提出了莱芜市城乡公交一体化发展模式及措施。     

Information needs of the continuing urban transportation planning process

Urban transportation is identified as a functional element in the broader context of urban facilities and services. From this point of view, the relative merits of separate information systems for transportation planning and general urban planning, as contrasted to unified systems for all urban management functions, are discussed. The overriding need to make the most effective use of urban resources argues strongly for the unification of urban information systems to the greatest possible extent consistent with the special data requirements of various functional programs. The need to identify and correlate data items for very small areal units and to keep current records of the constantly shifting patterns of social and economic activities in urban areas present difficult, but not insurmountable technical problems. However, the most serious barrier to the development and implementation of comprehensive urban information systems is concluded to be institutional, rather than technical, in nature.     

The economic use of subsidies for urban mass transportation

The energy crisis and various urban problems stemming from auto congestion, pollution, and the cost of providing public highways have created enormous interest in revitalizing our urban mass transit systems. Currently much is being said and written regarding the efficacy of granting federal, state and/or local operating subsidies. In this article, the author reviews the transit industry's peak capacity problem, and questions the economic wisdom of providing operating subsidies, as some are now being provided, and how most will probably be administered in the near future. An alternative plan suggests the manner in which subsidies can eventually help the transit industry. The article concludes with an analysis of what research efforts are needed in many urban transit systems and how subsidies can be used to support such research.     

Integrated modeling of urban hierarchy and transportation network planning

A major problem addressed during the preparation of spatial development plans relates to the accessibility to facilities where services of general interest such as education, health care, public safety, and justice are offered to the population. In this context, planners typically aim at redefining the level of hierarchy to assign to the urban centers of the region under study (with a class of facilities associated with each level of hierarchy) and redesigning the region’s transportation network. Traditionally, these two subjects – urban hierarchy and transportation network planning – have been addressed separately in the scientific literature. This paper presents an optimization model that simultaneously determines which urban centers and which network links should be promoted to a new level of hierarchy so as to maximize accessibility to all classes of facilities. The possible usefulness of the model for solving real-world problems of integrated urban hierarchy and transportation network planning is illustrated through an application to the Centro Region of Portugal.     

Substituting operational control for physical capacity in urban transportation

This paper develops recommendations for improving in an evolutionary manner the performance of our urban ground transportation systems. The strengths and limitations of present static control technology and current computer traffic signal and freeway surveillance and control systems in urban areas are described. A taxonomy of possible information and control configurations in urban traffic operations is developed. The alternatives in the taxonomy are analysed and used as the basis for recommending specific real time information and control functions for improving, in an evolutionary manner, the performance of urban ground transportation systems. The recommended improvements would allow for the first time a meaningful substitution of operational control for physical (static) capacity increases in urban transportation.     

Specifications for a new long-range urban transportation planning process

This paper asserts the continuing need for a long-range component to urban transportation planning, citing particularly the relationships between short- and long-range planning and the dangers of a single-minded concentration on short-range planning. However, the nature of the long-range planning procedure that is required is substantively different from that of most extant approaches. Some of the specific requirements and capabilities of a new procedure are described, and existing procedures are compared against these.In the latter part of the paper, some of the elements of a new long-range planning procedure are characterized. It is suggested that the procedure be built around a scenario approach to confronting and bounding future uncertainty. Second, the need to incor porate financial forecasting in the process is laid out and related to the scenario concept. Third, the need for travel- and impact-forecasting procedures is recognized and a set of input, output and operating requirements for such procedures are specified. It is suggested that improved sketch-planning tools may fit the requirements to a large extent. It is also suggested that some procedures or models in the process should be synthetic models, not needing calibration for each new application. Finally, a number of requirements are specified for the display and evaluation of planning proposals from this procedure. A major emphasis is placed here on transparency of the process and responsiveness to direct intervention by the decision-maker.     

Japan's urban transportation system in the major transport spheres

The urban areas in Japan have undergone rapid changes in the last two and one-half decades. At the same time, the urban transportation system has been faced with numerous problems which need to be solved urgently. This paper presents the development stage and problems in the three largest metropolitan areas, designated as transport spheres, in Japan. Japan's problems in urban transportation are similar to those of most Western nations with regard to such issues as rapid urbanization, growth in travel, increasing auto ownership, growing transit operating deficits, rising wages and air pollution. The differences are the large modal split of transit from automobile trips, major expansion of the rail transit network, and the large number of transit operators in each urban area in Japan. In addition, governmental policies to help solve the urban transport problems are briefly described. In order to make the policies effective, coordination among government agencies is required. The establishment of a unified government agency is regarded as the first priority in dealing with the urban transport problem. It is expected that the government will offer bold new countermeasures to cope with urban transportation problems.This report was accomplished with the kind assistance of Professor Jerry B. Schneider, Departments of Civil Engineering and Urban Planning, University of Washington, and Mr. Satoshi Inoue, an official of the Ministry of Transport in Japan, who is currently studying at the University of Washington.     

Impacts of regional transportation improvements on urban development in Japan

Urban agglomerations in Tokyo and Osaka in post-war period are largely attributable to the policies underlying the four National Development Plans implemented in that period. These policies, which were originally intended to achieve an effect on the opposite of agglomeration, relate primarily to the high-speed transit network known as the Tokaido shinkasen and the expressway segments linking the Kanto and Kansai regions. For the purpose of capturing the historical scenario of regional agglomeration, we have formulated a long-term macro-econometric model from 1950–85, with 5-year simulation cycles. This constitutes an employment distribution block, an input-output block, and an inter-prefectural activities block, incorporating all major macro-variables. In an earlier stage of this research the model was calibrated and the total tests upon all formulations were completed. Ascertaining that the accuracy of the model is well within permissible limits, an evaluation of policy scenarios due to the delay in the introduction of the shinkansen on the Tokaido line, has been conducted. Results indicate that Tokyo grows much less rapidly than in reality, Osaka maintains the same rate of growth, and the other areas show a substantial growth by 1985. In the present version, we improve on the model with respect to its qualitative performance by relaxing the exogeneity of national employment and GNP to allow for the evaluation of these policy variables. In completing these final tests on the model, we are able to confirm the validity of the model by demonstrating its accuracy to be in a satisfactory range. In a case study, the policy areas that have contributed to the present distribution of development have been explored in detail. Comparative policy transformations, necessary to achieve the opposite effects to agglomeration, are discussed.     

Benefit-cost analysis for labor intensive transportation systems

Labor-intensive systems such as bikeways and pedestrian ways suffer in transportation planning in part because traditional benefit-cost analysis focuses on narrow, private transportation savings (e.g., reducing vehicle and time costs).Planners need benefit-cost frameworks which capture the community-wide effects of such innovative transportation systems — reduction in air pollution, less congestion, and increases in exercise and outdoor recreation. This study discusses practical methods for planners to include such categories in their analyses and applies these methods to two case studies. The analysis yields benefit-cost ratios which are much higher than those found in most public projects — suggesting negative returns to marginal automobiles in congested areas such as university campuses. The paper concludes with some suggested bikeway planning guidelines that emerge from expanded benefit-cost analysis.