Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach

Cycling is often promoted as a means of reducing urban congestion and improving health, social and environmental outcomes. However, the quantification of these potential benefits is not well established. This is due in part to practical difficulties in estimating cycling demand and a lack of sound methodologies to appraise cycling initiatives. In this paper we attempt to address this need by developing predictive models of cycle demand, relative to other transport modes, that capture not only the impacts of observed characteristics such as age and travel time but also the role of attitudes and perceptions. Using data from a stated preference survey, we estimate a hybrid choice model for cycle use that incorporates the role of attitudes towards cycling, perceptions of the image associated with cycling, and the stress arising from safety concerns. Model results indicate that the latent attitudes and perceptions explain an important part of the non-observable utility in a simple multinomial logit choice model. We also demonstrate policy analysis using the hybrid choice model, which allows comparisons of ‘hard’ policies such as the provision of parking facilities against ‘soft’ measures such as cycle promotion schemes.     

Using ordered attitudinal indicators in a latent variable choice model: a study of the impact of security on rail travel behaviour

There is growing interest in the use of models that recognise the role of individuals’ attitudes and perceptions in choice behaviour. Rather than relying on simple linear approaches or a potentially bias-inducing deterministic approach based on incorporating stated attitudinal indicators directly in the choice model, researchers have recently recognised the latent nature of attitudes. The uptake of such latent attitude models in applied work has however been slow, while a number of overly simplistic assumptions are also commonly made. In this article, we present an application of jointly estimated attitudinal and choice models to a real-world transport study, looking at the role of latent attitudes in a rail travel context. Our results show the impact that concern with privacy, liberty and security, and distrust of business, technology and authority have on the desire for rail travel in the face of increased security measures, as well as for universal security checks. Alongside demonstrating the applicability of the model in applied work, we also address a number of theoretical issues. We first show the equivalence of two different normalisations discussed in the literature. Unlike many other latent attitude studies, we explicitly recognise the repeated choice nature of the data. Finally, the main methodological contribution comes in replacing the typically used continuous model for attitudinal response by an ordered logit structure which more correctly accounts for the ordinal nature of the indicators.     

Multimodal travel groups and attitudes: A latent class cluster analysis of Dutch travelers

For developing sustainable travel policies, it may be helpful to identify multimodal travelers, that is, travelers who make use of more than one mode of transport within a given period of time. Of special interest is identifying car drivers who also use public transport and/or bicycle, as this group is more likely to respond to policies that stimulate the use of those modes. It is suggested in the literature that this group may have less biased perceptions and different attitudes towards those modes. This supposition is examined in this paper by conducting a latent class cluster analysis, which identifies (multi)modal travel groups based on the self-reported frequency of mode use. Simultaneously, a membership function is estimated to predict the probability of belonging to each of the five identified (multi)modal travel groups, as a function of attitudinal variables in addition to structural variables. The results indicate that the (near) solo car drivers indeed have more negative attitudes towards public transport and bicycle, while frequent car drivers who also use public transport have less negative public transport attitudes. Although the results suggest that in four of the five identified travel groups, attitudes are congruent with travel mode use, this is not the case for the group who uses public transport most often. This group has relatively favorable car attitudes, and given that many young, low-income travelers belong to this group, it may be expected that at least part of this group will start using car more often once they can afford it. Based on the results, challenges for sustainable policies are formulated for each of the identified (multi)modal travel groups.     

Illuminating the unseen in transit use: A framework for examining the effect of attitudes and perceptions on travel behavior

This study develops the Perception–Intention–Adaptation (PIA) framework to examine the role of attitudes, perceptions, and norms in public transportation ridership. The PIA framework is then applied to understand the relative importance of socio-demographic, built environment, transit service, and socio-psychological factors on public transit use for 279 residents of south Los Angeles, California, a predominately low-income, non-white neighborhood. Confirmatory factor analysis based on 21 survey items resulted in six transit-relevant socio-psychological factors which were used in regression models of two measures of transit use: the probability of using transit at least once in the 7-day observation period, and the mean number of daily transit trips. Our analysis indicates that two PIA constructs, attitudes toward public transportation and concerns about personal safety, significantly improved the model fit and were robust predictors of transit use, independent of built environment factors such as near-residence street network connectivity and transit service level. Results indicate the need for combined policy approaches to increasing transit use that not only enhance transit access, but also target attitudes about transit service and perceptions of crime on transit.     

Incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles: the influence of transport policies,attitudes and perceptions

This paper aims to evaluate the influence of policies, attitudes and perceptions when incentivizing alternative fuel vehicles. The impact of possible policies such as gasoline taxes increases, purchase price subsidies, tax exemptions, and increases in fuel recharging station availability for alternative fuelled vehicles is evaluated using hybrid choice models. The models also allow assessing the sensitivity of latent variables (i.e., attitudes and perceptions) in the car purchase behaviour. The models are estimated using data from a stated choice survey collected in five Colombian cities. The latent variables are obtained from the rating of statements related to the transport system, environmental concern, vehicle preferences, and technology. The modelling approach includes regression between latent variables. Results show that environmental concern and the support for green transport policies have a positive influence on the intention to purchase alternative fuel vehicles. Meanwhile, people who reveal to be car-dependent prefer to buy standard fuelled vehicles. The analysis among cities shows similar trends in individual behaviour, although there are differences in attribute sensitivities. The policy scenario analysis revealed high sensitivity to capital cost and the need for extensive investments in refuelling stations for alternative fuel vehicles to become attractive. Nevertheless, all policies should not only be directed at infrastructure and vehicles but also be focused on user awareness and acceptance of the alternative fuel vehicles. The analysis suggests that in an environmentally conscious market, people prefer alternative fuels. However, if the transport policies support private transport, the market shares of alternative fuel vehicles will decrease.     

Applying the theory of reasoned action to understanding consumers’ intention to adopt hybrid electric vehicles in Saudi Arabia

To satisfy the global energy demand while accommodating the rapidly increasing consumption rate in its domestic market, Saudi Arabia must develop and implement fuel efficiency programs in many sectors. In the transportation sector, which is a major contributor to fuel consumption and emissions, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) could provide a viable solution, but they are not yet available in the Saudi market. Applying the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and an online questionnaire instrument (N = 847), this paper aims to identify the factors that could drive Saudi citizens’ intention to adopt such technology. We find that the TRA is appropriate to describe intention to adopt HEVs in the Saudi context, and that both subjective norms and attitudes are significant in explaining Saudi consumers’ intention, with subjective norms having three times as strong an effect as attitudes. The findings should be useful to relevant Saudi government officials as they develop and implement transportation-related initiatives and policies, as well as to global auto manufacturers and dealers seeking to tap into Saudi Arabia’s prospective HEV market.

     

About attitudes and perceptions: finding the proper way to consider latent variables in discrete choice models

We provide an in-depth theoretical discussion about the differences between individual-specific latent constructs (representing attitudes, for example, but also other characteristics such as values or personality traits) and alternative-specific latent constructs (that may represent perceptions) affecting the choice-making process of individuals; we also carry out an empirical exercise to analyze their effects. This discussion is of importance, as the majority of papers considering attitudinal latent variables just take these as attributes affecting directly the utility of a certain alternative, while systematic taste variations are rarely considered and perceptions are mostly ignored. The results of our case study show that perceptions may indeed affect the decision making process and that they are able to capture a significant part of the variability that is normally explained by alternative specific constants. Furthermore, our results indicate that attitudes may be a reason for systematic taste variations, and that a proper categorization of latent variables, in accordance with underlying theory, may outperform the customary assumption of linearity.     

Understanding repetitive travel mode choices in a stable context: A panel study approach

It is argued that most travel mode choices are repetitive and made in a stable context. As an example, the everyday use of public transport is analyzed based on a panel survey with a random sample of about 1300 Danish residents interviewed up to three times in the period 1998–2000. The use of public transport is traced back to attitudes towards doing so, beliefs about whether or not public transportation can cover one’s transport needs, and car ownership. The influence of these variables is greatly attenuated when past behavior is accounted for, however. For subjects without a car, behavior changes are in the direction of greater consistency with current attitudes and perceptions. For car owners, current attitudes are inconsequential. The temporal stability of transport behavior is also higher for car-owners than for non-owners.     

The effect of attitudes on reference-dependent preferences: Estimation and validation for the case of alternative-fuel vehicles

Several recent studies in transportation have analysed how choices made by individuals are influenced by attitudes. Other studies have contributed to our understanding of apparently non-rational behaviour by examining how choices may reflect reference-dependent preferences. This paper examines how reference-dependent preferences and attitudes together may explain individual choices. In a modelling framework based on a hybrid choice model allowing for both concepts, we investigate how attitudes and reference-dependent preferences interact and how they affect willingness-to-pay measures and demand elasticities. Using a data set with stated choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that allowing for reference-dependent preferences improves our ability to explain the stated choices in the data and that the attitude (appreciation of car features) explains part of the preference heterogeneity across individuals. The results indicate that individuals have reference-dependent preferences that could be explained by loss aversion and that these are indeed related to an individual’s attitude towards car features. The models are validated using a large hold-out sample. This shows that the inclusion of attitudes improves the models’ ability to explain behaviour in the hold-out sample. While neither reference-dependent preferences nor the attitude affect the average willingness-to-pay measures in our sample, their effect on choice behaviour has implications for policy recommendations as segments with varying attitudes and reference values will act differently when affected by policy instruments related to the demand for alternative-fuel vehicles, e.g. subsidies.     

On the perceived justice of urban road pricing: An empirical study in Lyon

Various methods of restricting automobile traffic, by price (tolls) or by quantity (odd/even license plates or limited days of traffic), are tested in a survey (N ～ 400) about attitudes toward traffic restrictions in Lyon, France. Ordered probit models with random-effects panel allow us to estimate the survey respondents’ perceptions of these methods, as well as the roles of individual socio-demographic characteristics in the formation of these perceptions. Both the restriction of automobile traffic and its regulation by congestion (waiting in line) are widely considered unjust by the respondents, regardless of whether they work and whether they are drivers or non-drivers. Their attitudes towards tolls justified by the pollution caused by automobile traffic are less negative. As regards compensation, in addition to emergency vehicles and those that transport people with limited mobility, respondents believe car-pooling ought to benefit of a toll exemption. The support for a reduced rate for low-income users shows a concern for justice to which it will be necessary to respond. The respondents’ socio-professional status, level of education, car use or non-use, and residence inside or outside of the toll zone clearly play a role in their perceptions of these methods of regulation and compensation.     

The effects of activity-travel context and individual attitudes on car-sharing decisions under travel time uncertainty: A hybrid choice modeling approach

People’s daily decision to use car-sharing rather than other transport modes for conducting a specific activity has been investigated recently in assessing the market potential of car-sharing systems. Most studies have estimated transport mode choice models with an extended choice set using attributes such as average travel time and costs. However, car-sharing systems have some distinctive features: users have to reserve a car in advance and pay time-based costs for using the car. Therefore, the effects of activity-travel context and travel time uncertainty require further consideration in models that predict car-sharing demand. Moreover, the relationships between individual latent attitudes and the intention to use car-sharing have not yet been investigated in much detail. In contributing to the research on car-sharing, the present study is designed to examine the effects of activity-travel context and individual latent attitudes on short-term car-sharing decisions under travel time uncertainty. The effects of all these factors were simultaneously estimated using a hybrid choice modeling framework. The data used in this study was collected in the Netherlands, 2015 using a stated choice experiment. Hypothetical choice situations were designed to collect respondents’ intention to use a shared-car for their travel to work. A total of 791 respondents completed the experiment. The estimation results suggest that time constraints, lack of spontaneity and a larger variation in travel times have significant negative effects on people’s intention to use a shared-car. Furthermore, this intention is significantly associated with latent attitudes about pro-environmental preferences, the symbolic value of cars, and privacy-seeking.     

Expanding scope of hybrid choice models allowing for mixture of social influences and latent attitudes: Application to intended purchase of electric cars

Recently, policy makers’ expectations about the role of electric cars in reducing emissions have risen substantially. In parallel, academic research on purchase intentions has dramatically increased. Originally, most studies have focused on utility attributes and price. More recently, several hybrid choice models have been estimated to include the impact of attitudes on choice probabilities. In addition, a few studies have caught the attention to social influence. In contributing to this line of research, this paper reports the results of an expanded hybrid choice, which simultaneously estimated all these different effects in a single integrated model of purchase intention. Results indicate that the model performs well. Costs considerations contribute most to the utility of electric cars. Social influence is less important, but there is also evidence that people tend to take it into consideration when there are positive public opinions about electric cars and the market share becomes almost half of friends of their social network. The intention to purchase an electric car is also influenced by attitudes about environmental concerns and technology acceptance.     

How does environmental concern influence mode choice habits? A mediation analysis

Starting from the intuition that people with high environmental concern have a better perception of public transport and therefore a better perception of the utility of public transport, we construct a theoretical model in which the effect of environmental concern on mode choice habits is mediated by the indirect utility of travel. Travel procures the direct utility of providing access to activities, but it also offers an indirect utility that is inherently personal and perceptual. We approach the indirect utility of public transport by measuring perceptions of time and feelings. The indirect utility of the car is approached by measuring affective and symbolic motives. Taking into account car use habits and habits of public transport use, the results show that people who have a high environmental concern perceive public transport use as easier, more useful and more pleasurable than people who do not have that environmental motivation. Such positive attitudes foster public transport use. Conversely, low environmental concern generates non-instrumental motives for car use, such as affective and symbolic motives. However, the relationship between affective and symbolic motives and car use habits is not robust. We can conclude that environmental concern influences mode choice habits and that the effect is partially mediated by perceptions and feelings towards public transport but not significantly by affective and symbolic motives for car use.     

Understanding cyclists’ perceptions,keys for a successful bicycle promotion

Many variables that influence bicycle use beyond time and cost have been included in models of various types. However, psycho-social factors that make the bicycle eligible as a modal alternative have not been identified properly. These factors are related to intention, attitudes and perceptions, and their identification can contribute to obtain the keys for a successful bicycle policy. Here, an in-depth investigation of cyclists’ perceptions is attempted using a large university survey designed and collected ad hoc, and then applying exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses. After identifying fourteen factors, a structural equations model was estimated to find structure and relationships among variables and to understand users’ intentions to use the bike. Four (latent) variables are identified, namely convenience, pro-bike, physical determinants and exogenous restrictions. The main conclusion is that convenience (flexible, efficient) and exogenous restrictions (danger, vandalism, facilities) are the most important elements to understand the attitudes towards the bicycle.     

Car ownership and attitudes towards transport modes for shopping purposes in Singapore

The heightening of issues, such as sustainable development and environmental pollution have resulted in many governments pursuing transport policies which aim to promote the use of public transport modes, including walking, as well as discourage the use of the car for various activities, such as shopping, work, recreation, etc. However, little has been done on understanding shoppers' perceptions of transport modes for shopping purposes. Particularly, not much research has been done on examining the attitudes of car owners and non-car owners towards transport modes for shopping purposes. Using Singapore as a study area, this study has attempted to analyse car owners and non-car owners' perceptions of the different types of transport modes (i.e., car, taxi, bus, mass rapid transit and walk) in their shopping trips. The research found that each transport mode has its own unique set of attributes. In addition, car owners and non-car owners portray different attitudes towards the public transport modes and the car. This calls for different strategies for these two groups of shoppers in encouraging them to use the public transport modes and restrain the use of the car.     

Modeling absolute and relative cost differences in stochastic user equilibrium problem

This paper aims to develop a hybrid closed-form route choice model and the corresponding stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) to alleviate the drawbacks of both Logit and Weibit models by simultaneously considering absolute cost difference and relative cost difference in travelers’ route choice decisions. The model development is based on an observation that the issues of absolute and relative cost differences are analogous to the negative exponential and power impedance functions of the trip distribution gravity model. Some theoretical properties of the hybrid model are also examined, such as the probability relationship among the three models, independence from irrelevant alternatives, and direct and indirect elasticities. To consider the congestion effect, we provide a unified modeling framework to formulate the Logit, Weibit and hybrid SUE models with the same entropy maximization objective but with different total cost constraint specifications representing the modelers’ knowledge of the system. With this, there are two ways to interpret the dual variable associated with the cost constraint: shadow price representing the marginal change in the entropy level to a marginal change in the total cost, and dispersion/shape parameter representing the travelers’ perceptions of travel costs. To further consider the route overlapping effect, a path-size factor is incorporated into the hybrid SUE model. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the capability of the hybrid model in handling both absolute and relative cost differences as well as the route overlapping problem in travelers’ route choice decisions.     

Using the sustainable modified TAM and TPB to analyze the effects of perceived green value on loyalty to a public bike system

This article explores the effects of perceived green value, perceived green usefulness, perceived pleasure to use, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on green loyalty to a public bike system. The mediators between perceived green value and green loyalty and a moderator of general attitude toward protecting the natural environment are also discussed. The aim of this research was to understand how to establish green loyalty via the other dimensions based on the sustainable modified technology acceptance model (modified TAM), the theory of planned behavior (TPB), and a moderator. The findings reveal that perceived pleasure to use and subjective norms have the strongest power to influence loyalty for both users and non-users. The implications of this finding are that fun in people’s lives has a strong influence on sustainable continuous use of public bikes, and that subjective norms are more effective for non-users. In addition, environmental attitude has stronger moderating effects for non-users than for users on perceived green usefulness, perceived pleasure and subjective norms. Therefore, governmental policies should promote the attitude of protecting the natural environment, perceptions of pleasure, and subjective norms so as to increase green loyalty to public bike-sharing.     

The Increasing Role of Latent Variables in Modelling Bicycle Mode Choice

The growing interest in promoting non-motorised active transport has led to an increase in the number of studies to identify the key variables associated with bicycle use, and especially those related to the bicycle mode choice problem. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of the modelling literature on the choice of the bicycle for utilitarian purposes, and summarises and assesses the evolution of the explanatory variables and methodologies used. We review both the evolution of the incorporation of latent variables in bicycle mode choice models and the critical role they play. The chronological evolution of the studies is divided into three stages —initial, intermediate and late — according to the different ways of introducing attitudinal or perceptual indicators and latent variables into the models. Our review shows that the incorporation of latent variables in bicycle choice models has increased in the last decade, with a progressive use of more sophisticated methodologies until the arrival of complex models that explicitly and properly deal with psychological latent variables. In fact, with the use of hybrid choice models, latent variables have nowadays become the core of bicycle mode choice models. Based on our review, a set of questions is proposed as a uniform measurement scale to identify attitudes towards bicycling. Recommendations for future research are also presented.     

How perceptions mediate the effects of the built environment on travel behavior?

This study provides a better understand the mechanism underlying the built environment-behavior connection by systematically exploring the relationships between the objective (actual) environment and people’s perceptions of the environment, and their relative effects on travel behavior using the Stimuli-Organism-Response framework. Based on data for the Twin Cities, this study explores (1) How do perceptions mediate the effects of the objective environment on travel behavior? (2) How do travel attitudes influence the effects of perceptions on travel behavior? Among the eight empirical models tested here, six are consistent with the framework: objective built environment affects travel behavior through its influence on perceptions. Moreover, the framework fits walking and bicycling behavior better than transit and driving behavior. Furthermore, travel attitudes greatly moderate the influences of perceptions on travel behavior.