优化方法在舰船抗沉决策系统中的应用研究

为了及时有效地抗沉,构建了以模型库系统为主,数据库系统和人机交互系统并重的辅助抗沉决策系统.其中模型库系统分别由装载计算模型、不沉性计算模型和抗沉方案优化模型三个子系统组成.着重研究了用于舰船破损情况下辅助决策的优化模型.以可用抗沉舱的装载量为设计变量,以最小干舷为目标函数,以限制横倾角和纵倾值为约束条件,采用非线性规划法中的惩罚函数法求解优化模型,生成最佳抗沉方案.研究了初稳性高为正值时的优化抗沉方案.通过实例计算,并将计算结果和采用遗传算法的结果相比较,证实了该优化方法用于抗沉操作的可行性.     

Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

船舶操纵运动数学模型研究

本文共分3个部份:第一部份阐述了船舶操纵运动数学模型的建立,选择了解析式水动力模型结构;第二部分依据实船试验结果,对船舶运动数学模型进行相似性率定,通过数值模拟和相似性分析,数学模型取得了与实船试验非常接近的结果;第三部分对建立的数学模型作了综合评价,认为达到了工程实用要求。     

不完备目标信息系统中的可变精度粗糙集模型

文中以同时具有缺席型和遗漏型未知属性值的不完备目标信息系统为研究对象,根据特征关系,研究可变精度粗糙集的模型及其性质．可变精度粗糙集模型与原始的粗糙集模型不同,它是建立在集合多数包含的基础上的,因而该模型是基于特征关系的经典粗糙集模型的推广形式,而基于特征关系的经典粗糙集模型则是可变精度粗糙集模型的一种特殊表现形式．文中对新模型的主要性质作了阐述和证明,结果表明：在不完备目标信息系统中,新模型与原始的粗糙集模型相比具有更高的近似精度,可进行更为精确的度量．     

基于灰色自回归模型的船舶流量预测方法

结合灰色模型和自回归AR(p)模型,提出两种模型组合的灰色自回归模型,根据实际的船舶交通流量数据,分别运用灰色模型、自回归AR(p)模型和灰色自回归模型,对某港口船舶交通流量的进行预测,通过计算和Matlab仿真,结果表明灰色自回归模型预测精度较高,证明了该模型的可行性。     

基于参数扰动模型的遥控潜水器滑模控制方法

[目的]遥控潜水器(ROV)的运动控制易受到环境和模型参数不确定性因素的影响,难以达到预期控制效果,针对此情况,提出一种基于参数扰动模型的ROV滑模控制方法.[方法]以标准ROV模型为基础,将环境干扰与模型自身参数的不确定性作为模型扰动参数,建立带参数扰动的ROV模型,并对模型进行解耦得到深度方向的控制模型,基于带参数...     

Error correction of a predictive ocean wave model using local model approximation

Constructing models from time series with nontrivial dynamics is a difficult problem. The classical approach is to build a model from first principles and use it to forecast on the basis of the initial conditions. Unfortunately, this is not always possible. For example, in fluid dynamics, a perfect model in the form of the Navier–Stokes equations exists, but initial conditions and accurate forcing terms are difficult to obtain. In other cases, a good model may not exist. In either case, alternative approaches should be examined. This paper describes an alternative approach of combining observations and numerical model results in order to produce an accurate forecast. The approach is based on application of a method inspired by chaos theory for building nonlinear models from data called Local Models. Embedding theorem based on the time lagged embedded vectors is the basis for the local model. This technique is used for analysis and updating of numerical model output variables to forecast and correct the errors created by numerical model. The local model approximation is a powerful tool in the forecasting of chaotic time series and has been employed for wave prediction in a forecasting horizon from a few hours to 24 h. The efficacy of the local model as an error correction tool (by combining the model predictions with the observations) compared with the predictions of linear auto regressive models has been brought up. In the present study, the parameters driving the local model are optimized using evolutionary algorithms.     

航道整治工程中长河段复合模型方法研究

鉴于数学模型在解决水沙运动及河床冲淤变化三维性较强的局部工程问题时存在一定的局限,以及物理模型在模拟长河段时受时间变态影响较为严重的问题,提出综合物理模型和数学模型优点的长河段复合模型。综述国内外复合模型的发展情况、优缺点及发展趋势,结合物理模型和数学模型在航道整治工程中的应用,提出航道整治工程中长河段复合模型研究思路与方法。     

一类运输优化问题求解过程分析

通过对运输决策问题中某种基本情况的研究，建立运力有限情况下单个需求点单一物资运输的研究模型，给出求解模型的算法，通过一个算例进行了验证。与目前文献资料中类似研究模型相比较，在决策中考虑运达概率对运输决策的影响是本文模型的一大突出特点。     

立式自然循环蒸汽发生器机理建模与仿真研究

针对立式自然循环蒸汽发生器,采用模块化机理建模的方法建立了蒸汽发生器非线性数学模型.该模型包括16个控制体,对每个控制体采用集总参数法建立数学模型并进行推导,得到了拥有12个状态变量的数学模型.采用龙格库塔法对模型进行解算.对该模型进行仿真试验,验证了该模型的动态特性.利用该模型可以分析蒸汽发生器的动态特性,设计蒸汽发生器控制器,具有一定的工程应用价值.     

Assimilation of SeaWiFS ocean chlorophyll data into a three-dimensional global ocean model

Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll data were assimilated with an established three-dimensional global ocean model. The assimilation improved estimates of chlorophyll relative to a free-run (no assimilation) model. Compared to SeaWiFS, annual bias of the assimilation model was 5.5%, with an uncertainty of 10.1%. The free-run model had a bias of 21.0% and an uncertainty of 65.3%. In situ data were compared to the assimilation model over a 6-year time period from 1998 through 2003, indicating a bias of 0.1%, and an uncertainty of 33.4% for daily coincident, co-located data. SeaWiFS bias was slightly higher at − 1.3% and nearly identical uncertainty at 32.7%. The free-run bias and uncertainty at − 1.4% and 61.8%, respectively, indicated how much the assimilation improved model results. Annual primary production estimates for the 1998–2003 period produced a nearly 50% improvement by the assimilation model over the free-run model as compared to a widely used algorithm using SeaWiFS chlorophyll data. These results suggest the potential of assimilation of satellite ocean chlorophyll data for improving model results.     

基于速率-沉降特征分析工后沉降预测方法适用性

以曲线拟合法为主,研究了预测模型的速率与沉降的特征,指出了Gompertz模型、Usher模型等增长曲线预测工后沉降存在的不足,改进了二次三项式预测模型,提出了计算幂函数模型参数的简便方法。结合高速公路长期的工后观测资料,分析了常用方法的适用性和预测精度,并对工后沉降预测模型的选择提出了建议。     

基于故障树的系统目标打击决策模型研究

在战略战术上的重要性使系统目标成为导弹打击目标类中优先决策的对象。为了较好地解决对系统目标的最优打击问题,采用故障树分析的方法,通过故障树的建立、底事件概率计算模型、打击决策模型以及序贯毁伤模型,获取了导弹对系统目标的打击决策模型,对打击决策的准确判断具有较好的借鉴意义。     

An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development is presented by exploring the relationship between individual company’s rates and aggregated market rates, and thus assists in dealing with uncertainty and market volatility for a given business situation. In the second stage, a design of experiment approach is applied to highlight the influence of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model’s performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior model for business needs.     

An improved formulation for bulk cargo ship scheduling with a single loading port

This paper presents an improved, significantly more efficient formulation of an existing model for bulk cargo or semi-bulk cargo ship scheduling problems with a single loading port. The original model, published by Ronen in 1986, was formulated as a non-linear, mixed integer program. In this work, the authors were able to re-formulate it into a linear one, by eliminating all the non-linearities of the original model. In addition, this model has far fewer integer variables than the original one. A numerical example has been given to illustrate the elimination of non-linearities and how 40 integer variables, in the original model, are reduced to just eight. This example also shows that this model is better at finding exact optimal solutions than the original one. It is also worth observing that the resulting model is a generalization of the 'capacitated facility location problem'.     

Modeling emulsification after an oil spill in the sea

A conceptual model for simulating oil emulsification after a spill in the ocean is presented. This paper contains the complete model formulation and scenario simulations. The model formulation is based on the most up-to-date research information available in the literature. The model uses minimum turbulence energy as a criterion to determine whether emulsification occurs. Once the emulsification happens, the model simulates water uptake and viscosity changes during emulsification. The model classifies emulsion into three categories: stable, meso-stable, and unstable emulsions based on a concept “stability index”. The model estimates the stability of the emulsion and simulates the process of de-emulsification when the emulsion is meso-stable or unstable. The model also considers the effects of evaporation on the formation of emulsification. Scenario simulations show how different types of emulsions are formed under different conditions. They also show how the emulsion stability changes with oil weathering.     

浅谈中国港口运营模式

介绍了中国港口当前的几种运营模式,其中包含一港一企模式、一港多企模式、多城共港模式和多城多港、一企多港模式。分析了各种模式的利弊。提出国家采取措施控制港口资源及不可再生的岸线资源。相关机构研究这些模式及其产生的影响,制定相应对策,为港口经济持续发展服务。     

An improved formulation for bulk cargo ship scheduling with a single loading port

This paper presents an improved, significantly more efficient formulation of an existing model for bulk cargo or semi-bulk cargo ship scheduling problems with a single loading port. The original model, published by Ronen in 1986, was formulated as a non-linear, mixed integer program. In this work, the authors were able to re-formulate it into a linear one, by eliminating all the non-linearities of the original model. In addition, this model has far fewer integer variables than the original one. A numerical example has been given to illustrate the elimination of non-linearities and how 40 integer variables, in the original model, are reduced to just eight. This example also shows that this model is better at finding exact optimal solutions than the original one. It is also worth observing that the resulting model is a generalization of the ‘capacitated facility location problem’.     

半潜平台动力定位系统模型预测控制器设计(英文)

This paper researches how to apply the advanced control technology of model predictive control(MPC) to the design of the dynamic positioning system(DPS) of a semi-submersible platform.First,a linear low-frequency motion model with three degrees of freedom was established in the context of a semi-submersible platform.Second,a model predictive controller was designed based on a model which took the constraints of the system into account.Third,simulation was carried out to demonstrate the feasibility of the controller.The results show that the model predictive controller has good performance and good at dealing with the constraints of the system.     

Use of a 3D compartment model for simplified full ship FE model. Part II: validation of the simplified FE model

This is Part II in a series of papers. Part I (J Mar Sci Technol 13:154–163) deals with an approach employed to construct a simplified FE model using a 3D compartment model available from the beginning of the ship design process. This paper begins by describing the limitations of an analytical approach based on shear warping beam theory for assessing torsional strength. Next, the structural parts of a container ship that have a negligible effect on hull girder bending strength and torsional strength are determined. This is verified by removing these parts from a conventional FE model and comparing the results obtained using this modified model with those yielded by the original model. The fore end part, the aft end part and the deck house are examined. Since these parts have complicated structures and relevant drawings for them are issued later than cargo structure drawings, modeling them exactly can result in a delay in the completion of the full ship FE model. This paper also verifies the validity of the simplified FE model built by applying the method proposed in Part I and comparing the results obtained with it with those given by a conventional full ship FE model. The stresses on hatch coaming top, the maximum diagonal elongations of the hatch coaming, and the maximum hatch corner movements are evaluated to check the validity of the simplified model.