The effect of governmental subsidies and the contractual model on the publicly-owned bus sector in Japan

The publicly-owned municipal bus sector that provides local transport in Japan is in a difficult situation because of operating deficits, inefficient operations and management, and budgetary constraints of expanding subsidies, and thus, it needs to be restructured to improve efficiency. This paper investigates the impact of subsidies and contractual settings on the cost structure of the publicly-owned bus sector in Japan. A trans-log cost function has been estimated by pooling cross-sectional data of 527 observations over the time period of 1990-2006 for a cross-section of 31 publicly-owned transport companies in Japan. Our analytical results confirm that governmental subsidies to this sector negatively affect the cost structure, while the contractual model may have a positive impact. We also discuss the implications of these results for Japan’s public transport policy.     

Regulating the regulator: The impact of professional procuring bodies on local public transport policy and its effectiveness

During the past 15 years competitive tenders have become a common procedure when procuring local bus services in Europe. In particular, tenders with gross cost contracts and the so-called Scandinavian model have gained popularity, resulting in a vast amount of research on optimal contractual relationships between government and operators. This paper pays attention to a rather neglected part of the Scandinavian model: the construction of professional procuring bodies and their relationship to the local public administration, focusing on its implications for policy steering and service performance.The paper outlines briefly two different perspectives of analyses of organisational models: one perspective is anchored in principal-agent theory and institutional economics; and the other perspective in political science. Empirically, the article is based on an evaluation of the relation between two Norwegian counties and the administrative company responsible for planning and procuring public transport services. This evaluation indicates, firstly, important common challenges for the county administration due to lack of regional administrative competencies in relation to the administrative company, which also hampers the county’s role as coordinator of policy areas of importance for public transport. Secondly, due to increased transaction costs, the establishment of administrative companies does not seem compatible with contracts relying on net cost solutions with huge scope for operator initiatives.     

Workshop report - A successful contractual setting

Successful public transport service contracts can be judged against procedural and outcome criteria, located within an integrated strategic, tactical and operational level framework for planning and delivery. Clear goal setting at the strategic level sets the basis for supportive tactical system planning and for service delivery that meets goals. The workshop considers relevant success criteria and key matters that need to be resolved for their achievement. Market growth potential and the governmental attitude to supporting service growth are important issues shaping the contractual environment. The growing interest in negotiated performance-based contracts and the role of trust between the operator and the authority are also matters for particular attention.     

Future challenges for transport infrastructure pricing in PPP arrangements

In this paper we report the conclusion of a research project dedicated to pricing regimes in public-private partnership contracts for the provision of transport infrastructure (Macário et al., 2009). Several elements have been brought to the bulk of knowledge that supports the design and implementation of public-private partnership in the transport sector. These developments have been achieved in the following domain:

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Understand difficulties of price setting within the PPP environment, given the potential conflict of interest among the different parties engaged, go beyond the discussion of first best versus second-best price setting mechanisms.

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Understand the role of government and regulators in the performance of a PPP.

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Translate the issue of asymmetries of information between parties into a risk taking language.

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Devise alternative contractual designs that will enable competitive price setting.

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Understand that a structural element is missing to conciliate the views of the different stakeholders over a PPP: a bridge between infrastructure costs and charges.

The objective of this paper is to overview the main challenges ahead of transport infrastructure pricing, considering the current and likely future policies as well as the field constraints. Moreover, a proposal is formulated to overcome some of the current pitfalls associated to transport infrastructure pricing.     

The regulatory function in public-private partnerships for the provision of transport infrastructure

A wide range of contractual arrangements are increasingly being used by the public sector to materialise the delegation of transport infrastructure provision tasks to the private sector, over long periods of time. This paper addresses the issue of transport infrastructure regulation in the specific context of public-private settings. Starting by the discussion on the concept of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) it is stressed that, despite the different meanings that can be found in the literature, it is possible to define a PPP by using a core group of characteristics, such as the bundling of services and the transference of a relevant part of the risks to the private sector on a long term basis. Regarding the action of the regulator, we look at three dimensions of efficiency that are expected to be pursued at the strategic level of regulatory action. However, it is acknowledged that the regulatory function is in practice rather complex since it requires balancing a multiplicity of other objectives or goals, which may vary according to specific economic conditions. In the domain of pricing, the review carried out suggests that since “first best” assumptions are not met in the “real world” it hardly seems possible that the short run marginal cost pricing “canon” could be directly used to shape pricing policies. Consequently, when considering the application of the standard neoclassical marginal cost pricing approach it is pertinent to ask whether the second best solutions can lead to efficient outcomes that might be accepted by the stakeholders. Bundling construction and maintenance tasks into a single long term contract, which is a typical characteristic of “standard” PPPs, could theoretically bring cost benefits since it allows for the possible internalization of any positive externalities that may be generated during the whole project life cycle. The economic rationale for the bundling of construction/maintenance with financing services is that it enhances the likelihood of submission of realistic bids at the procurement stage. In addition, the chances of the contractor sticking to the agreed contractual terms, after contract award, are potentially increased given the higher exposure to financial risk.     

论泥沙运动理论的流派及相互关系

泥沙运动理论种类繁多 ,众说纷纭 ,这给泥沙工作者带来了诸多不便。按各学者研究泥沙运动所引起的水流强度指标 ,对泥沙运动理论的流派地行了划分 ,分为力学派、运动学派和能量学派。在理论上 ,各学派均可表示成统一的形式 ,根本区别在于各学派对于阻力系数对泥沙运动影响上认识不一致。在运用上 ,除个别问题外 ,对各学派的优劣存在较大分歧 ,特别在预测输沙强度方面 ,虽说能量学派占有一定的优势 ,但仍有待进一步检验     

Challenges in the application of spatial computable general equilibrium models for transport appraisal

The use of spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models for assessing the economic impacts of transport projects is one of the key items on the research agenda for project appraisal in the Netherlands. These models are particularly suitable for analysing indirect effects of transport projects through linkages between the transport sector and the wider economy. Potentially, according to the literature, indirect effects that are additional to first-order direct cost reductions can turn out to be up to almost 80% in magnitude of the direct impacts. Given the relevance of these models for policy appraisal, experiences with this new modelling approach are important to report. After two years of development and application of SCGE models for transport appraisal, we found that the translation of theory behind the spatial equilibrium models into practical model specifications and empirical applications is a challenging task, and may lead to problems in project appraisal in terms of inaccuracies in the assessment of impacts. This paper discusses some key challenges we encountered with the specification of the Dutch SCGE model RAEM. This chapter is especially useful for researchers developing SCGE applications for use in transport appraisal and those who want to get a better understanding of differences between theoretical and computable SCGE modelling.     

大型沉管隧道与双体运输船连接支墩结构受力特性研究

基于三维势流理论，运用水动力分析软件WADAM，对一种沉管隧道双体运输船带有沉管隧道的浮运工况下，进行了波浪中的响应分析。并根据分析结果研究了连接支墩结构在波浪中的受力特性，分析了包括波谱形式，波浪方向，波浪周期以及水深在内的多个参数对支墩载荷的影响。计算结果对沉管隧道浮运工况的选择，连接支墩的结构设计等方面有着重要的参考意义。     

Social exclusion: What can public transport offer?

A new workshop on ‘Social exclusion: What can public transport offer?’ was introduced in the Thredbo 10 program. The workshop examined the concept of social exclusion in a transport context, looking briefly at the history and comprehensiveness of the term for social policy in transport. Other concepts, such as well-being and social capital, were determined to be also needed. While important research was reported to the workshop, it was clear that social exclusion was at an early stage of empirical development. Gaps were highlighted, particularly in evaluation and cost-benefit analysis. Examples of service systems designed to address social exclusion were presented at the workshop, revealing the need to better understand governance arrangements. The workshop developed recommendations for future research and policy, particularly emphasising the need to integrate social outcomes with economic and environmental transport policy at the strategic, tactical and operational levels. Finally, ideas for further exploration of social exclusion in Thredbo 11, were outlined.     

Workshop 6: The public agenda: What is working and what is missing

Workshop 6 topics covered social inclusion, the informal transport sector, transport in developing countries and sustainability. The strong connections and complimentary goals were noted, where solutions to social exclusion and greenhouse gas reduction can both be realised with good transport and urban planning. There is an opportunity for developing countries to avoid the transport mistakes in many developed countries, such as car dependence. This will involve the development of infrastructure that offers accessible public transport to the majority of people, providing resources to the informal transport system and integrating this with public transport. The workshop considered specific issues such as rural transport, new technology, car tolls to subsidise public transport, safety issues with informal transport and the failure to evaluate the longer-term impacts of many major transport infrastructure developments. Recommendations were made in relation to research and policy and future Thredbo topics.     

上海内河货运量的组合预测

内河航运是综合交通运输系统中不可缺少的运输方式,存在着很大的潜在优势.定量地把握未来内河运输的发展趋势,具有重大的现实意义.通过利用时间序列模型、logistic曲线与自回归模型等,对2010-2015年的上海内河货运量进行预测.在此基础上,对不同模型赋予不同的权重,建立了组合预测模型.研究表明:未来上海内河货运量将持续稳定地增长.为提高预测的精度,有必要综合地使用多个预测方法.     

基于IFC的水运基础设施信息模型

根据水运基础设施领域数据交换需求,引入了国际数据描述交换标准——工业基础类(IFC),基于其开放、共享、可扩展的特点,提出了一条适用于水运基础设施IFC标准的实施技术路线图。根据该路线,对水运基础设施领域的数据交换需求、数据分类、数据编码进行了验证和实践。该体系方法,能够满足水运工程领域IFC技术的研究要求,保障了水运基础设施IFC标准研究的顺利实施,也可为基础设施其它领域IFC研究和实践工作提供技术支撑。     

Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

一体化运营的钦州自动化码头海铁联运发展

针对多式联运建设过程中铁路与港口最后1 km迟迟不能打通的问题,以钦州港自动化码头海铁联运为实践案例,分析了海铁联运现状和推进过程中数据不通、运输规则不同等困难。基于海运与铁路2套不同的运行机制特点,采用实证研究法和个案研究法,提出先实现物理区域合并、堆场资源共享,再打破信息壁垒、实现信息系统融合,最终实现统一调度、业务融合的一体化运营的分步式推进路径。研究成果可为其他港口海铁联运建设提供借鉴。     

Multimodal route choice in maritime transportation: the case of Korean auto-parts exporters

Global offshoring has increased the need for transport of half-finished goods and components, along with finished goods. The auto-parts industry in Korea has also entered the global market as Korean car manufacturers have started to build overseas factories. Maintaining cost competitiveness by minimising total logistics costs will thus be a critical strategy for the industry. This research compares the total annual costs of four feasible transport routes from Korea to the US using the inventory-theoretic model, which encompasses direct transport costs, in-transit carrying costs, and warehouse inventory costs. We apply this model to real transport data collected from a Korean auto-parts company. A static analysis shows that inventory costs can play a decisive role in altering the cost competitiveness of different routes. In addition, sensitivity and scenario analyses with changes in variables and the market situations reveal that the cost structure of each route plays an important role in determining their relative cost competitiveness in varying market conditions.     

Workshop 3A: Governance,contracting, ownership and competition issues in public transport: Looking up not down

Workshop 3A focussed on matters of institutional design that seem likely to improve public transport outcomes. It started by defining high level outcome goals, as measures of ultimate public transport success, and then identified the major societal issues that public transport systems can help to resolve. These issues were separately defined for Southern African and western settings. The importance of taking an integrated approach to transport, particularly land use/transport integration, was seen as fundamental to goal achievement. Workshop papers provided many and varied examples of this importance, ranging from PPPs for major public transport projects to system design issues and contracting out of services. The Workshop included detailed discussion on paratransit development in Southern Africa, where relationship management is proving to be critical, in-line with much previous Thredbo discussion about the important role of trusting partnerships. Parallels and contrasts were drawn with paratransit in western settings. Competition in passenger rail was also a focus, with some questioning of the benefits of franchising. Discussion concluded by proposing recommendations for policy and research and suggesting agenda items for future Thredbo Conferences.     

The development of road and rail transport safety valuation in the United Kingdom

An extensive body of theoretical and empirical work has been undertaken in the UK since the middle of the last century on the estimation of values of safety for use in the appraisal of proposed transport projects, particularly road and rail. This research has focused largely on ‘willingness-to-pay’ based values in order to measure the strength of the travelling public's preference for marginal improvements in transport safety, relative to consumption of other goods and services. In terms of practical policy making, the research has resulted in a set of values for the prevention of statistical fatalities and non-fatal injuries that are applied not only in transport safety decision making, but also in other public sector contexts. This paper summarises the main findings of this research.     

成球黏性土水力输送阻力特性计算方法

密实黏性土在管路水力输送过程中会形成球块状,成球黏性土水力输送计算是国内外疏浚界的难题。立足浆体输送理论,以大型绞吸式挖泥船施工数据为基础,对成球黏性土的管路输送阻力特性进行研究,分析已有各种土质浆体输送理论用于成球黏性土管路阻力特性计算可能产生的偏差,并根据分析结果对成球黏性土输送计算公式进行研究,进而提出可用于成球黏性土输送的计算公式,供工程界与理论界参考。     

Operator changes through competitive tendering: Empirical evidence from German local bus transport

In this paper, we empirically investigate operator changes and the structural conditions in competitive tendering of bus services in Germany. We show that the focus has been on regional services, which has led to a loss in market share for the incumbent DB Stadtverkehr companies and gains for private companies, whereas municipal services have rarely been tendered out. The high average number of bidders (5.1) and the high probability of an operator change (58.2%) are positively influenced by tendering in larger volumes and longer contractual lengths. Tenders in early years have been more likely subject to an operator change. By contrast, complexity drivers such as the number of lines and mixed urban and regional transports exhibit a negative influence on competition.