Simulation of electric vehicle driver behaviour in road transport and electric power networks

The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) will affect both electricity and transport systems and research is needed on finding possible ways to make a smooth transition to the electrification of the road transport. To fully understand the EV integration consequences, the behaviour of the EV drivers and its impact on these two systems should be studied. This paper describes an integrated simulation-based approach, modelling the EV and its interactions in both road transport and electric power systems. The main components of both systems have been considered, and the EV driver behaviour was modelled using a multi-agent simulation platform. Considering a fleet of 1000 EV agents, two behavioural profiles were studied (Unaware/Aware) to model EV driver behaviour. The two behavioural profiles represent the EV driver in different stages of EV adoption starting with Unaware EV drivers when the public acceptance of EVs is limited, and developing to Aware EV drivers as the electrification of road transport is promoted in an overall context. The EV agents were modelled to follow a realistic activity-based trip pattern, and the impact of EV driver behaviour was simulated on a road transport and electricity grid. It was found that the EV agents’ behaviour has direct and indirect impact on both the road transport network and the electricity grid, affecting the traffic of the roads, the stress of the distribution network and the utilization of the charging infrastructure.     

Multimodal travel groups and attitudes: A latent class cluster analysis of Dutch travelers

For developing sustainable travel policies, it may be helpful to identify multimodal travelers, that is, travelers who make use of more than one mode of transport within a given period of time. Of special interest is identifying car drivers who also use public transport and/or bicycle, as this group is more likely to respond to policies that stimulate the use of those modes. It is suggested in the literature that this group may have less biased perceptions and different attitudes towards those modes. This supposition is examined in this paper by conducting a latent class cluster analysis, which identifies (multi)modal travel groups based on the self-reported frequency of mode use. Simultaneously, a membership function is estimated to predict the probability of belonging to each of the five identified (multi)modal travel groups, as a function of attitudinal variables in addition to structural variables. The results indicate that the (near) solo car drivers indeed have more negative attitudes towards public transport and bicycle, while frequent car drivers who also use public transport have less negative public transport attitudes. Although the results suggest that in four of the five identified travel groups, attitudes are congruent with travel mode use, this is not the case for the group who uses public transport most often. This group has relatively favorable car attitudes, and given that many young, low-income travelers belong to this group, it may be expected that at least part of this group will start using car more often once they can afford it. Based on the results, challenges for sustainable policies are formulated for each of the identified (multi)modal travel groups.     

Point-to-point speed enforcement systems: Speed limits design criteria and analysis of drivers’ compliance

Point-to-point (P2P) speed enforcement is a relatively new approach to traffic law enforcement. Its technology allows vehicles whose average speed exceeds the speed limit over the controlled section to be fined. It therefore encourages compliance over distances longer than those where spot enforcement policies have been in place.In this paper, a procedure for consistently setting speed limits with such enforcement systems is proposed. Such a method has been applied to design the speed limits on two motorways in the district of Naples, Italy, where P2P enforcement systems became operational in 2009 and 2010. The speed limits, which were set using the Italian geometric design standard to assess vehicle stability and stopping sight distance, have been compared with those provided by using well-known international standards.The impact of the newly designed speed limits and of the P2P enforcement system on drivers’ speeding behaviour has been quantified for each highway section and vehicle type. In fact, accurate measurements of the average travel speeds of each vehicle crossing the enforced sections, before and after the activation of the system, were available. The migration from the old speed limits with spot speed enforcement to the new approach resulted in a notable increase in drivers’ compliance to the speed limits with a remarkable decrease in both the average of individual speeds and in their standard deviation.In addition, the analysis of 3 years of data shows that a gradual adaptation of drivers’ behaviour to the system took place. In particular, a decreasing compliance to the speed limits points to a non-optimal system management. Finally, the results of a revealed preference survey allowed us to make a behavioural interpretation regarding the significantly different impacts measured on the two motorways.     

Urban transport in Germany: providing feasible alternatives to the car

With the second highest level of car ownership in the world, and the third highest population density in Europe, Germany has adopted a range of policies to balance the many private benefits of car use with its serious social and environmental problems. In order to ‘tame’ the car, most German cities have implemented a twofold strategy of expanding and improving pedestrian, bicycling and public transport alternatives simultaneously with restricting car use and making it more expensive. That has increased political acceptability since the car‐restrictive measures are not perceived as mere punishment of car drivers. The results of this coordinated urban transport strategy have been impressive. Germany, as a whole, has managed to increase public transport use and to stabilize the car share of modal split. Some cities, of course, have been more successful than others, and this paper examines three of the most successful cities: Münster, Freiburg and Munich. In each of the cities, the percentage of travel by bicycling, walking and public transport has been raised over the past 20 years, while the car's share of modal split has fallen. This article documents the range of policies used to restrict car use, both in Germany as a whole, and in the three case‐study cities in particular. The key to success is found to be mutually reinforcing transport and land‐use policies. It is the combination of a whole set of coordinated policies that explains the dramatic success in changing travel behavior.     

Vicious or virtuous circles? Exploring the vulnerability of drivers to break low urban speed limits

Levels of support for 20 mph limits in Great Britain are consistently high. However, these positive attitudes are not translating into similarly positive behaviour changes in terms of complying with these new speed limits. Recent research from the authors studied the complex relationship between support and compliance, with qualitative findings suggesting that copycat driving could create a ‘vicious circle effect’ that leads to increased levels of non-compliance. However it is also possible that an alternative ‘virtuous circle’ effect may emerge from the high levels of societal support for 20 mph limits pressurising drivers to comply with speed limits. In this work the authors investigated these issues and we report on data and analysis of a large scale survey of drivers and residents undertaken in Great Britain. We explain the origins of vicious and virtuous circles in driver behaviour and study the data from the survey, offering an analysis of attitudes and claimed behaviours that has implications for policy-makers and professionals working with low urban speed limits. We discuss the issues for speed limit enforcement, making reference to the public relations ‘battle’ for public opinion. It is concluded that normative compliance, triggered by community and other campaigning, may be the most realistic mechanism for countering the difficulties of government funding in promoting compliance.     

Urban transport policy development: two case studies in the Middle East

Abstract

The recent completion of two major transport studies of predominantly urban areas in the Middle East (Amman‐Jordan and Bahrain) has provided the opportunity to compare and contrast the transport characteristics of, and medium term transport policies for, the two areas.

While in structure the two transport systems have many similarities, their base year usage differs significantly. In view of the much lower income levels in Amman, and the resulting lower levels of car ownership, greater reliance is placed on public transport in Amman than in the more car‐oriented society in Bahrain. Against this background, and in the context of broadly similar overall levels of growth in travel demand, their development in the medium term future should follow different paths. Amman will need to depend on public transport very heavily, with only limited road building. Bahrain should be able to develop a satisfactory road system, with public transport playing its current role except for the provision of services for some relatively modest number of restrained private vehicle users. In both cases, however, substantial investment in off‐street parking spaces is needed.

The paper briefly describes the social and economic backgrounds of the two areas, and reviews the transport systems and the organisations responsible for them. Travel demand forecasts are summarized, leading to the transport plan and policy development. The prospects for implementation are discussed, and the paper lastly focuses on some aspects which are key to the development of the transport systems in the two countries.     

Breaking car use habits: The effectiveness of a free one-month travelcard

Based on calls for innovative ways of reducing car traffic and research indicating that car driving is often the result of habitual decision-making and choice processes, this paper reports on a field experiment designed to test a tool aimed to entice drivers to skip the habitual choice of the car and consider using—or at least trying—public transport instead. About 1,000 car drivers participated in the experiment either as experimental subjects, receiving a free one-month travelcard, or as control subjects. As predicted, the intervention had a significant impact on drivers’ use of public transport and it also neutralized the impact of car driving habits on mode choice. However, in the longer run (i.e., four months after the experiment) experimental subjects did not use public transport more than control subjects. Hence, it seems that although many car drivers choose travel mode habitually, their final choice is consistent with their informed preferences, given the current price–quality relationships of the various options.     

Analysis of a cooperative variable speed limit system using microscopic traffic simulation

Variable speed limit systems where variable message signs are used to show speed limits adjusted to the prevailing road or traffic conditions are installed on motorways in many countries. The objectives of variable speed limit system installations are often to decrease the number of accidents and to increase traffic efficiency. Currently, there is an interest in exploring the potential of cooperative intelligent transport systems including communication between vehicles and/or vehicles and the infrastructure. In this paper, we study the potential benefits of introducing infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits in variable speed limit systems. We do this by proposing a cooperative variable speed limit system as an extension of an existing variable speed limit system. In the proposed system, communication between the infrastructure and the vehicles is used to transmit variable speed limits to upstream vehicles before the variable message signs become visible to the drivers. The system is evaluated by the means of microscopic traffic simulation. Traffic efficiency and environmental effects are considered in the analysis. The results of the study show benefits of the infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits for variable speed limit systems in the form of lower acceleration rates and thereby harmonized traffic flow and reduced exhaust emissions.     

Decision support for simulating the car park activity in an urban area

Complexity of car park activity is reproduced from a concurrent execution of behaviour of various drivers. This paper presents a step in the development of a multimodal traffic simulator based on multi‐agent paradigm and designed as a decision aid tool as well as a video game. The user‐player has the opportunity to test different scenarios. We propose an approach for designing the decision‐making rules and the learning mechanism for a car driver agent. For that, a panel of methods such as stated preference modelling, Design Of Experiments and data fusion is used. Initial behavioural models, based on similar preferences, are developed for specified categories. Each agent will adapt its behaviour after executing its learning process. Our approach can be used in order to optimize needs of road network users and those of people in charge of traffic regulation. A demonstrator has been developed to test parking policies in an urban area as well as changes of car park characteristics.     

Personalised feedback and eco-driving: An explorative study

Conventional road transport has negative impact on the environment. Stimulating eco-driving through feedback to the driver about his/her energy conservation performance has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions and promote fuel cost savings. Not all drivers respond well to the same type of feedback. Research has shown that different drivers are attracted to different types of information and feedback. The goal of this paper is to explore which different driver segments with specific psychographic characteristics can be distinguished, how these characteristics can be used in the development of an ecodriving support system and whether tailoring eco-driving feedback technology to these different driver segments will lead to increased acceptance and thus effectiveness of the eco feedback technology. The driver segments are based on the value orientation theory and learning orientation theory. Different possibilities for feedback were tested in an exploratory study in a driving simulator. An explorative study was selected since the choice of the display (how and when the information is presented) may have a strong impact on the results. This makes testing of the selected driver segments very difficult. The results of the study nevertheless suggest that adapting the display to a driver segment showed an increase in acceptance in certain cases. The results showed small differences for ratings on acceptation, ease of use, favouritism and a lower general rating between matched (e.g., learning display with learning oriented drivers) and mismatched displays (e.g., learning display with performance oriented drivers). Using a display that gives historical feedback and incorporates learning elements suggested a non-verifiable increase in acceptance for learning oriented drivers. However historical feedback and learning elements may be less effective for performance oriented drivers, who may need comparative feedback and game elements to improve energy conserving driving behaviour.     

Transport and society1

In 1963, the Buchanan Report in the UK advocated a combination of new road capacity, improved public transport and traffic restraint as a means to tackle congestion. Forty years on, and the advice from many transport experts remains the same. However, the scale and complexity of the problems associated with a mobility‐dependent society have grown. The need for politicians to make tough but realistic policy decisions on transport is now becoming unavoidable. They must confront the realities of living with the car as must the general public. Policymakers now also have social well‐being and sustainable development moving higher on their agendas alongside transport. Against such a backdrop, the paper makes the case for transport research, policy and practice to acknowledge more fully the inherent links between transport and society. It argues that greater recognition and understanding of such links is crucial to confronting the present realities. Transport does not merely serve society: it shapes society, as in turn society shapes transport. The future of each is dependent on the other, and this fact must be recognized. The paper advocates in turn that the transport profession must move from its heartlands in engineering and economics also to embrace more fully such disciplines as sociology and psychology. A factual picture of the many facets of present‐day society is presented and the implications for travel demand are discussed. Through considering phenomena such as social norms and habitual behaviour, it is then argued that the travel choices and behaviour of individuals are not simply a matter of economic optimization. This points to the need for decision‐makers to be furnished with better evidence about the transport problems faced and the potential efficacy of measures that might be taken. Discussion of public attitudes and the role of the media are included in the context of assessing how politicians can be encouraged and supported in their implementation of realistic but unpopular policies. Evidence and experience within the paper are UK based, although many of the issues and arguments apply world wide.     

Investigation and analysis of evidence of asymmetric churn in travel demand models

There is a large amount of research work that has been devoted to the understanding of travel behaviour and for the prediction of travel demand and its management. Different types of data including stated preference and revealed preference, as well as different modelling approaches have been used to predict this. Essential to most travel demand forecasting models are the concepts of utility maximisation and equilibrium, although there have been alternative approaches for modelling travel behaviour. In this paper, the concept of asymmetric churn is discussed. That is travel behaviour should be considered as a two way process which changes over time. For example over time some travellers change their mode of travel from car to bus, but more travellers change their mode from bus to car. These changes are not equal and result in a net change in aggregate travel behaviour. Transport planners often aim at producing this effect in the opposite direction. It is important therefore to recognise the existence of churns in travel behaviour and to attempt to develop appropriate policies to target different groups of travellers with the relevant transport policies in order to improve the transport system. A data set collected from a recent large survey, which was carried out in Edinburgh is investigated to analyse the variations in departure time choice behaviour. The paper reports on the results of the investigation.     

Up‐to‐the‐minute information as we drive—how it can help road users and traffic management

Road transport of today has a substantial need for a better information system. The European research programmes PROMETHEUS and DRIVE offer the prospect of new techniques and strategies. The role of information in road transport is analysed from the viewpoint of the individual drivers and from the viewpoint of the traffic manager. All necessary information must be brought together and a complex data‐bank system for road transport should be installed. As examples of advanced information systems the concepts of the ‘Wolfsburg wave’ for in‐car speed recommendation and of the LISB field experiment in route guidance in Berlin are explained.     

The acceptability of road pricing in Vienna: the preference patterns of car drivers

The acceptability of road pricing has attracted considerable attention among researchers over the last decade, as is evident in the amount of literature about transport and environmental economics. The general conclusion from these studies has been that there is low acceptability for road pricing among car users. In this paper, we add more knowledge to the existing literature by conducting an acceptability study of road pricing in Vienna, where such a study has never been conducted before. We used a replication study approach where a previous approach used in the EU research project AFFORD (acceptability of fiscal and financial measures and organisational requirements for demand management) was replicated for Vienna and further supplemented with a conjoint analysis. In order to examining whether the Vienna study confirms previous findings. We investigated the acceptability of two concrete policy packages factors influencing this acceptability, and preference patterns that can be used in designing a road pricing policy for Vienna. The survey reveals a higher acceptability if road pricing schemes lead to perceived personal benefits. According to the multivariate analyses, the “personal outcome expectations”, “social norm” and “perceived effectiveness” variables account for more than 50 % of the criterion variance and therefore these are the most influential factors. Road pricing schemes can be an effective transport management instrument for a city particularly if they are associated with direct investment in public transport and public infrastructure. Thus, personal benefits can be perceived more easily and direct effects can be expected.     

Optimization of tunnel tolls in land use and transport planning

The task of transport planning is to determine cost-effective methods of providing and improving mobility, which can include minimizing traffic congestion. A cost-effective solution to transport problems should consist of a land use pattern, a transport system an a set of road pricing policies that together bring demand and supply into balance in an efficient and equitable way. The conventional approach aimed to produce comprehensive, long-term plans for land use and transport in considerable detail, but tended to ignore the role of road pricing policy, thus ending up with solutions that might not be efficient or economical. This feature of sub-optimal road pricing policy is accentuated by the overall growth in car use, which has generated problems with the efficient use of road space. This paper presents a computer analysis system (or model) which will enable the analysis of coordinated tunnel toll pricing policies by optimising an “objective function” while satisfying the associated and other constraints. The possibility of integrating the optimal road pricing policies in the land use and transport planning are discussed. A case study based on Hong Kong data demonstrates the efficiency of optimizing tolls on two of the three harbour crossing tunnels in Hong Kong.     

Driving with intelligent speed adaptation: Final results of the Belgian ISA-trial

In October 2002 the first ISA-trial in Belgium was started in Ghent. Thirty-four cars and three buses were equipped with the “active accelerator pedal”. In this system a resistance in the accelerator is activated when the driver attempts to exceed the speed limit. If necessary, the driver can overrule the system. The main research goals of the trial in Ghent were to evaluate the effects of ISA on speed-change, traffic safety, drivers’ attitude, behaviour and drivers’ acceptance. To study these effects of the ISA-system both surveys and logged speed data were analyzed. In the surveys drivers noticed that the pedal assisted them well in upholding the speed limits and that the system increased driving comfort. Most important drawbacks were technical issues. Data analysis shows a reduction in the amount of speeding due to the ISA-system. There is however still a large remaining percentage of distance speeding, especially in low speed zones. Differences between drivers are large. For some drivers speeding even increases despite activation of the system. For less frequent speeders average driving speed almost always increases and for more frequent speeders average speed tends to decrease. With the system, less frequent speeders tend to accelerate faster towards the speed limit and drive exactly at the speed limit instead of safely below, which causes average speeds to go up.     

National policy towards cars: the federal republic of Germany

Although much of the early technical development of the automobile occurred in Germany, the spread of car ownership within Germany was relatively slow up to 1933. Besides the general economic situation, this was due to the high costs of purchasing and running a car. With deliberate promotion of automobility by the national‐socialists after 1933, the pace of motorization proceeded more rapidly until the outbreak of World War II. Immediately after the war, motorization was slow to regain momentum but by the middle fifties, after the initial phase of post‐war reconstruction, the rapid build‐up of cars began again and has continued ever since. By 1986, the West German car fleet exceeded 27 million and 80% of motorized passenger kilometres were made by car.

This rapid post‐war growth was made possible by a liberal transport policy which reacted to growing car use by adaptation and provision of the necessary infrastructure. The adverse effects of vehicular traffic on the environment and on the urban quality of life moved policy at the end of the sixties towards stronger support for urban public transport and regulations for noise and exhaust emissions of automobiles. Also, the high toll of death and injuries from road accidents made improvement of road safety another important policy objective. So far, however, measures taken have fallen short of requiring changes in driver behaviour. Although there is widespread awareness of the environmental and accident costs of automobility, there is a reluctance to legislate (or for people voluntarily) to modify driving behaviour for social objectives.

This paper presents, briefly, the main instruments that have been applied in West Germany to achieve car‐related transport policy objectives, including the latest modifications in the tax system intended to foster the use of low‐emission vehicles. Possible future directions of policy towards the car, depending inter alia on changes in government, are also explored.     

Reducing car dependence in the heart of Europe: lessons from Germany,Austria, and Switzerland

Munich, Berlin, Hamburg, Vienna, and Zurich – the largest cities in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland – have significantly reduced the car share of trips over the past 25 years in spite of high motorisation rates. The key to their success has been a coordinated package of mutually reinforcing transport and land-use policies that have made car use slower, less convenient, and more costly, while increasing the safety, convenience, and feasibility of walking, cycling, and public transport. The mix of policies implemented in each city has been somewhat different. The German cities have done far more to promote cycling, while Zurich and Vienna offer more public transport service per capita at lower fares. All five of the cities have implemented roughly the same policies to promote walking, foster compact mixed-use development, and discourage car use. Of the car-restrictive policies, parking management has been by far the most important. The five case study cities demonstrate that it is possible to reduce car dependence even in affluent societies with high levels of car ownership and high expectations for quality of travel.     

Exploring public transport usage trends in an ageing population

An ageing population remains one of the most significant challenges for Western society in the 21st century. Whilst public transport use has attractive sustainability features for older generations there is mixed evidence with regard to trends in travel and public transport use in ageing societies. This paper explores public transport trip rates amongst older age groups using travel survey evidence collected from a household travel survey in Melbourne, Australia for the period 1994 to 1999. A particular aim of the research was to establish trends in trip rates so as to explore the impact of the ageing Baby Boomer generation on travel by public transport. The results suggested that compared to those aged below 60, those aged over 60 years demonstrated 30% lower trip making overall and 16% lower public transport trip rates. Longitudinal trends in trip rates showed those aged over 60 had a very small decline in trip rates by public transport (−0.004 average daily trips per annum) but increasing rates for car trips. A further analysis showed a small but significant increase in longitudinal trip rates of public transport use amongst Baby Boomers (0.004 daily trips p.a., p < .05) while car usage for Baby Boomers was steady. The implication of these findings is that trends in the existing over 60s population are not necessarily going to flow through to behaviour patterns in the Baby Boomer generations. The Baby Boomer age group showed longitudinal trends in travel behaviour which contrasted with those of the existing over 60s generation notably with a trend towards increased public transport usage.