Cost and time damping: evidence from aggregate rail direct demand models

There is a significant body of evidence from both disaggregate choice modelling literature and practical travel demand forecasting that the responsiveness to cost and possibly to time diminishes with journey length. This has, in Britain at least, been termed ‘Cost Damping’, and is recognised in guidance issued by the UK Department for Transport. However, the consistency of the effect across modes and data types has not been established. Cost damping, if it exists, affects both the forecasting of demand and our understanding of behaviour. This paper aims to investigate the evidence for cost and time damping in rail demand using aggregate rail ticket sales data. The rail ticket sales data in Britain has, for many years, formed the basis of analysis of a wide range of impacts of rail demand. It records the number of tickets sold between station pairs, and it is generally felt to provide a reasonably accurate reflection of travel demand. However, the consistency of these direct demand models with choice modelling and highway demand model structures has not been investigated. Rail direct demand models estimated by ticket sales data indicate only slight variation in the fare elasticity with distance, as is evidenced in the largest meta-analysis of price elasticities conducted to date (Wardman in J Transp Econ Policy 48(3):367–384, 2014). This study of UK elasticities shows strong variation between urban and inter-urban trips, presumably a segmentation at least in part by purpose, but less remaining variation by trip length. A lack of variation by length supports the hypothesis of cost damping, because constant cost sensitivity would imply that fare elasticity would increase strongly with distance, because of the increasing impact of higher fares at longer distances. In this paper we indicate that rail direct demand models have some consistency of behavioural paradigm with utility based choice models used in highway planning. We go on to use rail demand data to estimate time and fare elasticities in the context of various cost damping functions. Our empirical contribution is to estimate time elasticities on a basis directly comparable with cost elasticities and to show that the phenomenon of cost damping is strongly present in ticket sales data. This finding implies that cost damping should be included in models intended for multimodal analysis, which may otherwise give incorrect predictions.     

New routes on old railways: increasing rail’s mode share within the constraints of the existing railway network

This paper describes an integrated methodology for identifying potential ‘quick wins’ for mode shift from road to passenger rail transport. Firstly, a procedure for analysing rail’s relative competitiveness in the market for passenger transport between large urban areas is developed and then applied to a UK case study. The purpose of such analysis is to allow the identification of flows where rail is currently relatively uncompetitive (in terms of journey time in particular) and to assess the reasons for this poor performance, so that the issues which suppress rail use may be addressed. In parallel, a framework, methodology and tool for the assessment of existing and potential capacity (trains, seats, TEUs, etc.) is developed for both passenger and freight traffic, to identify and address network constraints. An illustrative example of the use of these demand and capacity assessment tools is then presented, with the tools used to identify and evaluate flows where rail demand is suppressed by poor service quality and where spare capacity exists which would allow the passenger rail service to be improved without requiring significant investments in infrastructure. The effects of such improvements on demand are predicted, and the cost implications of operating such additional services are discussed. The analysis suggests that there may be significant potential for increasing rail’s mode share by providing additional inter-urban services where rail currently offers an inferior service.     

Travel demand estimation risk for high‐speed railway transport considering travel price competition

The Hokkaido Shinkansen (HS) bullet train line is under consideration to open in 2020. In this study, travel demand is estimated for the HS. Because some explanatory variables that are used for such estimation can have estimation errors, travel demand estimation risk is also calculated. In addition, because the HS can compete with airlines for modal share, the impacts of travel price competition (TPC) on the travel demand and the demand estimation risk are also estimated. In this study, the travel demand estimation risk is measured as the variance or the SD of the stochastic travel demand. The analysis reveals the following: the modal share of HS is 16% less when TPC is considered than when it is not considered; TPC causes the travel demand estimation risk to decrease; the probabilities of the HS operating at a deficit with and without consideration of TPC are calculated as 31.2% and 1.25%, respectively, and the increase in the mean consumer surplus accruing from the HS is calculated as JPY 47bn/year ($US588m/year) without TPC and as JPY 66bn/year ($US825m/year) with TPC. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of high-speed rail investment on economic and environmental change in China: A dynamic CGE analysis

This study investigates the impact of high-speed rail investment on the economy and environment in China using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The analysis is implemented in a dynamic recursive framework capturing long-run capital accumulation and labor market equilibrium. A national level impact was simulated through direct impact drivers including land use conversion, output expansion, cost reduction, productivity increase, transport demand substitution and induced demand. The results suggest that rail investment in China over the past decade has been a positive stimulus to the economy, while the effect on CO₂ emissions generation has been large. Overall, the economic impacts of rail investment are achieved primarily through induced demand and output expansion, whereas the contribution from a reduction of rail transportation costs and rail productivity increases were modest. In addition, negligible negative impacts were found from land use for rail development and the substitution effect among other modes. Emissions reduction from substitution of rail for other modes was small and offset by output expansion due to lowered rail transport costs and induced demand.     

Modelling the resilience of rail passenger transport networks affected by large-scale disruptive events: the case of HSR (high speed rail)

This paper deals with modelling the dynamic resilience of rail passenger transport networks affected by large-scale disruptive events whose impacts deteriorate the networks’ planned infrastructural, operational, economic, and social-economic performances represented by the selected indicators. The indicators of infrastructural performances refer to the physical and operational conditions of the networks’ lines and stations, and supportive facilities and equipment. Those of the operational performances include transport services scheduled along particular routes, their seating capacity, and corresponding transport work/capacity. The indicators of economic performances include the costs of cancelled and long-delayed transport services imposed on the main actors/stakeholder involved—the rail operator(s) and users/passengers. The indicators of social-economic performances reflect the compromised accessibility and consequent prevention of the user/passenger trips and their contribution to the local/regional/national Gross Domestic Product. Modeling resulted in developing a methodology including two sets of analytical models for: (1) assessing the dynamic resilience of a given rail network, i.e., before, during, and after the impacts of disruptive event(s); and (2) estimation of the indicators of particular performances as the figures-of-merit for assessing the network’s resilience under the given conditions. As such, the methodology could be used for estimating the resilience of different topologies of rail passenger networks affected by past, current, and future disruptive events, the latest according to the “what-if” scenario approach and after introducing the appropriate assumptions. The methodology has been applied to a past case—the Japanese Shinkansen HSR network affected by a large-scale disruptive event—the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011.     

Carbon,water, land and material footprints of China’s high-speed railway construction

The rapid development of China’s high-speed rail (HSR) has caused great concern worldwide, and its various environmental impacts is also a main topic. As such, a comprehensive assessment of these environmental impacts is significant for future HSR construction. In this study, a hybrid input-output life cycle method is applied to evaluate multi-footprints of Beijing-Tianjin intercity HSR, namely, carbon, water, land, and material footprints. Results show that the total carbon, water, land, and material footprints of the entire Beijing-Tianjin HSR construction are 3669.0 kt CO₂, 54954.7 kt fresh water, 45830.6 ha land, and 8474.2 kt original materials. In the construction stage, bridge and rail systems have the largest environmental impacts, totally contributing above 74% of the four footprints. The indirect footprints from upstream material production have the dominant effects, accounting over 89% in the four footprints. Metal smelting and rolling, transportation equipment manufacturing, and non-metallic mineral products are high-water-consuming and high-emission sectors in raw material production. Improving industrial production efficiency, optimizing line layout, optimizing production distribution and construction process management are key mitigation ways for multi-footprints.     

Unequal regional impacts of high speed rail on the tourism industry: a simulation analysis of the effects of Kyushu <Emphasis Type="Italic">Shinkansen</Emphasis>

Many high speed rail (HSR) routes are under construction in various cities of the world. Although tourism is one of the industries affected by HSR, not much is known about its effects on the same. This paper studies the impact of Kyushu’s HSR (Shinkansen) on tourism using computable general equilibrium modeling in the context of regional economies and transportation. The results show that the HSR has unequal effects on tourism among prefectures. The presence of these inequalities depends on whether the prefecture is a served by HSR, whether it is a terminal or an intermediate HSR station, and its current popularity with the tourists. Despite these inequalities, the economies of all the prefectures are benefited by the HSR owing to general equilibrium effects.     

Cost effective future derailment mitigation techniques for rail freight traffic management in Europe

Safe and reliable traffic management is vital for uninterrupted and successful operation of the European rail network, where mixed traffic (i.e. freight and passenger) services are run. Although rail freight derailment is infrequent, its consequences can be severe and may result in different forms of costs, including infrastructure; rolling stock; traffic disruptions; injuries and fatalities. The objective of this research paper is to conduct a cost benefit analysis (CBA) to identify cost effective mitigation techniques for efficient rail freight traffic management in Europe, by 2050. Reviewing previous derailments and studies, eight sets of derailment causes are analysed and, for each of them, sets of mitigation techniques are aimed at for their alleviation. The study finds that the highest cumulative costs of derailment are associated with ‘wheel failure’, while the lowest cumulative cost is identified for ‘excessive track width’. Regarding mitigation techniques, the lowest cumulative benefits are demonstrated for ‘track height’ interventions, whereas ‘wheel failure’ alleviation demonstrates the highest benefits, in value terms (all by 2050). In most cases, the benefit to cost ratio did not exceed 2.6; in two cases (‘track height’ and ‘rail failures’) the ratio remained below 1 – a negative outcome where cost is higher than benefit. The study suggests that the most cost-efficient interventions are those applied to ‘hot axle box and axle rupture’ and ‘spring and suspension failure’.     

Access to railway stations and its potential in increasing rail use

The propensity to travel by rail, and not, for example by car, can be considered to be a factor of the rail service offered, the access to it and the characteristics of the population served. Efforts to increase rail use usually focus on the rail service itself while the accessibility of the rail network receives less attention. In this context, the paper has two broad aims. First, to evaluate how important the ‘access-to-the-station’ part of a rail journey is to passengers in their overall satisfaction with the rail journey and second, to investigate the balance between characteristics of the service, the access to it and the population served in determining rail use in different parts of the rail network. The analysis is carried out for the Netherlands. To achieve the first aim, we use the Dutch Railways customer satisfaction survey and apply principal component analysis and derived importance techniques to assess the relative importance of accessibility in determining the overall satisfaction with the rail journey. For the second aim, we use regression analysis to explain, at the Dutch postcode level, the propensity to use rail. We find that satisfaction with the level and quality of the access to the station is an important dimension of the rail journey which influences the overall satisfaction from that journey and that the quality and level of accessibility is an important element in explaining rail use. The conclusion reached is that in many parts of the rail network improving and expanding access services to the railway station can substitute for improving and expanding the services provided on the rail network and that it is probably more cost efficient when the aim is to increase rail use. These parts of the network are mainly in the periphery where the current level of rail service is relatively low.     

Demand for rail travel to and from airports

Rail access to airports is becoming increasingly important for both train operators and the airports themselves. This paper reports analysis of inter-urban rail demand to and from Manchester and Stansted Airports and the sensitivity of this market segment to growth in air traffic and the cost and service quality of rail services. The estimated demand parameters vary in an expected manner between outward and inward air travellers as well as between airport users and general rail travellers. These parameters can be entered into the demand forecasting framework widely used in the rail industry in Great Britain to provide an appropriate means of forecasting for this otherwise neglected market segment. The novel features of this research, at least in the British context, are that it provides the first detailed analysis of aggregate rail flows to and from airports, it has disaggregated the traditional generalised time measure of rail service quality in order to estimate separate elasticities to journey time, service headway and interchange, and it has successfully explored departures from the conventional constant elasticity position.     

High-speed rail's potential for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from short haul aviation: a longitudinal study of modal substitution from an energy generation and renewable energy perspective

Abstract

This paper quantifies and evaluates, utilising a ‘bottom-up’ approach, the effect on CO₂ emissions of a modal shift from short-haul air travel to high-speed rail (HSR), based on projected passenger movements, between Sydney and Melbourne, Australia during the period 2010–2030. To date, peer-reviewed studies assessing the CO₂ emissions from these competing modes of high-speed transportation have been restricted principally to a cross-sectional assessment, with a Eurocentric bias. This present comparative study seeks to address a gap in the literature by assessing, longitudinally, the CO₂ emissions associated with the proposed operation of HSR against the ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario between Sydney and Melbourne. Under the assumed 50/50 modal shift, and the Australian government's current renewable electricity target, an annual reduction in CO₂ emissions of approximately 14% could be achieved when compared with a ‘business-as-usual’ air scenario. This percentage reduction represents a 62 kt reduction in base year, 2010, and a 114 kt reduction in the final year, 2030. In total, the overall reduction achieved by such a modal shift, under the assumed conditions, during the period 2010–2030, equates to approximately 1.87 Mt of CO₂. Importantly, if the electrical energy supply for HSR operations was further ‘decarbonised’, then it follows that a greater emission reduction would be achieved.     

Investigation of environmental justice analysis in airport planning practice from 2000 to 2010

Municipal airport owners and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) regularly evaluate capacity and demand to decide if and when airports need more infrastructure. New infrastructure can alter the profile of noise, emissions, and land use, which may affect the quality of life for airport-adjacent communities. When the FAA and airport owners initiate infrastructure expansion, they must conduct environmental justice analysis to measure the distribution of negative externalities on nearby communities. This research investigates the environmental justice methodologies and narratives reported in planning documents for nineteen airport capacity expansions planned or deployed from 2000 to 2010 in the United States. The mixed-methods approach analyzes airport operations data, spatial demographic data, and planning artifacts to determine whether the environmental justice analyses were robust. This research proposes alternative metrics, the ‘Risk of disproportionate impact’ and ‘Capacity strain’, to further contextualize the presence of protected population groups alongside capacity needs. The main finding of the study is that the planning documents did not consistently detect environmental justice impacts, nor did they consistently confer importance to those impacts when high proportions of protected populations were detected. As a result, the social costs of collective airport expansion are unclear and likely underestimated. This study identifies two limitations that undermined the environmental justice analysis throughout the airport sample: (1) inconsistent methodological choices impeded the detection of impacts and, (2) narrative interpretations tended to ‘null’ the finding even when impacts were detected.     

Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: A case study in California

This paper investigates how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (i.e., 80in50). A Kaya framework that decomposes greenhouse gas emissions into the product of population, transport intensity, energy intensity, and carbon intensity is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. Each transportation subsector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, and off-road vehicles, is analyzed to identify specific mitigation options and understand its potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Scenario analysis shows that, while California’s 2050 target is ambitious, it can be achieved in transport if a concerted effort is made to change travel behavior and the vehicles and fuels that provide mobility. While no individual ‘‘Silver Bullet” strategy exists that can achieve the goals, a portfolio approach that combines strategies could yield success. The 80in50 scenarios show the impacts of advanced vehicle and fuels technologies as well as the role of travel demand reduction, which can significantly reduce energy and resource requirements and the level of technology development needed to meet the target.     

城市轨道交通工程设计咨询若干问题探讨

随着我国城市轨道交通建设进入快速发展阶段,对设计咨询的需求也不断增长,咨询服务类型和模式呈现多样化。为了使此项工作在认识上不断统一,作法上更加规范,作者根据在多个城市轨道项目的设计咨询经验,就城市轨道交通项目开展设计咨询的必要性、设计咨询定位与服务类型、咨询模式以及全过程设计咨询工作重点等若干问题进行了分析探讨,以供读者讨论交流。     

Planning hierarchical urban transit systems for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

Public transit systems with high occupancy can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to low-occupancy transportation modes, but current transit systems have not been designed to reduce environmental impacts. This motivates the study of the benefits of design and operational approaches for reducing the environmental impacts of transit systems. For example, transit agencies may replace level-of-service (LOS) by vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as a criterion in evaluating design and operational changes. In previous work, we explored the unintended consequences of lowering transit LOS on emissions in a single-technology transit system. Herein, we extend the analysis to account for a more realistic case: a transit system with a hierarchical structure (trunk and feeder lines) providing service to a city where demand is elastic. By considering the interactions between the trunk and the feeder systems, we provide a quantitative basis for designing and operating integrated urban transit systems that can reduce GHG emissions and societal costs. We find that highly elastic transit demand may cancel emission reduction potentials resulting from lowering LOS, due to demand shifts to lower occupancy vehicles. However, for mass transit modes, these potentials are still significant. Transit networks with buses, bus rapid transit or light rail as trunk modes should be designed and operated near the cost-optimal point when the demand is highly elastic, while this is not required for metro. We find that the potential for unintended consequences increases with the size of the city. Our results are robust to uncertainties in the costs and emissions parameters.     

The variation in the value of travel-time savings and the dilemma of high-speed rail in China

This paper examines the variation in the value of travel-time savings (VTTS), a fundamental element determining the market demand for high-speed rail. Following a review of time allocation theories, a time allocation model for general travel behavior is proposed as a further elaboration of Evans’ (1972) activities analysis. There are relationships among activities that can be expressed using a linear inequality to show the constraints on the arrangement of activities. This model indicates that two or more activities can be simultaneously rearranged to improve time management, which may be a source of variation in VTTS. This time allocation model can explain why large-scale high-speed rail construction in China faces significant market risks and a high likelihood of economic loss. Data from a new ticket sales and booking system for railway passengers indicate that passengers prefer conventional overnight sleeper trains, rather than high-speed trains, for long-distance travel, which supports the analysis of the time allocation model.     

高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价

随着我国高铁迅速发展,高铁建设如何与城市功能空间协同发展的问题引起广泛关注。为了评价高铁与城市协同发展的效率,本文从城市协同性、高铁枢纽建设、站城距离等角度,构建高铁枢纽建设与城市功能空间协同发展效率评价指标体系。并引入DEA模型进行分析计算其效率匹配度,为城市既有高铁站与城市协同发展程度提供依据。最后以京沪高铁为案例分析了24个车站与所在城市的协同关系效率值,结果表明,北京南站、上海虹桥站等高铁枢纽发展较好,常州北站、苏州北站、天津南站等较差,尤其是天津南站的通过能力、客流量等产出指标还需要进一步加强。     

Travel time reliability: a review of late time valuations,elasticities and demand impacts in the passenger rail market in Great Britain

This paper provides an extensive review and reconciliation of British and European evidence relating to the value of, and demand responses to, rail reliability. In particular, we compare the elasticities implied by stated preference valuations of late time with directly estimated lateness elasticities. We find that the implied lateness elasticities are substantially greater than those directly estimated. A possible explanation for this is that lateness has been over-valued, but more sobering explanations would be to suggest that, whilst rail travellers dislike unreliability, they may be unwilling or unable to reduce their rail travel in response to experiences of poor performance, or else conventional economic approaches to deducing elasticities are not appropriate. The findings have been used to update the recommendations of the UK rail industry’s Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook.     

The trade‐off between efficiency,effectiveness, and social feasibility of regulating road transport externalities

This paper discusses the tension between the theory and practice of the regulation of road transport externalities from the viewpoint of the trade‐off between efficiency, effectiveness and the social feasibility of regulation. Various possible types of regulatory instruments, subdivided into ‘direct’ demand management, ‘indirect’ demand management and ‘supply side’ oriented policies, are evaluated qualitatively according to these criteria. Attention is then directed towards the trade‐off between efficiency, effectiveness and feasibility within the field of ‘direct’ demand regulation of road transport.     

Regulating transport’s environmental impacts in a deregulating world

In recent years, a growing awareness of the environmental impacts of transport has played a major part in the shift towards policies to manage the demand for travel. As a result, a substantial increase in the role of public transport has been identified as necessary in any strategy towards more environmentally sustainable transport patterns. At the same time there has been a quite separate process of deregulation and the withdrawal of the state from the transport market. These two trends appear to represent potentially contradictory processes. This article draws upon two major studies that explore the relationship between increasing needs for environmental regulation and the privatisation of bus and rail services. It is shown that, as currently organised in Britain, the development of bus and rail services are inadequately linked to strategic environmental policymaking and, rather than being part of the solution to transport’s environmental impacts, there is a real danger that these ‘green’ methods of transport could slide into simply being part of the problem itself. It is concluded that privatisation and deregulation does not mean the end of the need for policy mechanisms, but they do mean that policy has to be implemented in a very different way.