GRACAT: software for grounding and collision risk analysis

From 1998 to 2000 an integrated software package for grounding and collision analysis was developed at the Technical University of Denmark within the project: Information technology for increased safety and efficiency in ship design and operation. The cost of the software development was 6 man-years. The software provides a toolbox for a multitude of analyses related to collision and grounding accidents. The software consists of three basic analysis modules and one risk mitigation module: (1) frequency, (2) damage, and (3) consequence. These modules can be used individually or in series and the analyses can be performed in deterministic or probabilistic mode. Finally, in the mitigation module risk profiles for the calculated consequences can be calculated and compared to alternative solutions by assignment of a cost function to the consequences. Thus, the possible analyses range from a deterministic crash analysis to a comparative risk analysis of two vessels operating on a specified route where the result is the probability density functions for the cost of oil outflow in a given area per year for the two vessels. In this paper, we describe the basic modelling principles and the capabilities of the software package. The software package can be downloaded for research purposes from www.ish.dtu.dk/GRACAT.     

AASHTO概率模型在船桥碰撞风险评估中的应用

近年来随着航道等级的提升,设计通航船舶尺度增大,要求的通航净空尺度增加,桥区通航水域条件发生显著变化。桥梁存在船撞风险,需对船撞桥梁风险实施评估、为实施防撞设施工程提供依据。国内外因船舶撞击而导致桥梁垮塌或严重破坏的事故逐渐增多,平均每年就有一座大型桥梁因为船舶撞击而遭受严重破坏甚至倒塌。北江航道乌石至三水河口航段经整治由Ⅳ级提升为Ⅲ级后,桥梁存在船撞风险。以船撞桥概率模型(AASHTO)为研究方法,分析了整治河段清远北江二桥参数对船撞桥概率的影响,计算了船舶撞击桥梁各涉水桥墩的年撞击概率,确定了存在较大船撞风险的桥梁与涉水桥墩,建立了船撞桥损伤概率模型,分析桥梁各部位抗撞能力、桥梁各部位船舶撞击力及各部位的年撞击频率,得出通航孔桥墩的年撞击倒塌频率。     

Impact scenario models for probabilistic risk-based design for ship–ship collision

A number of authors have proposed probabilistic risk based ship design for ship–ship collision, conditional to the local trading area of a vessel. The probability of collision and consequences are determined based on the traffic conditions in which a vessel is expected to operate. This paper investigates the adequacy of currently available models for impact scenarios, i.e. models linking the traffic conditions to the conditions at the moment of collision. An exploratory statistical model is presented to establish such a link. A probabilistic risk based design case study is performed for a fleet of RoPax vessels trading on a specified route in the Gulf of Finland. The available impact scenario models from the literature are compared with the developed probabilistic evasive maneuvering model. The results show that the impact scenario models have a very significant influence to the calculated hull breach probabilities. No well-justified impact scenario models are presently available and also the presented probabilistic evasive maneuvering model is burdened with uncertainty. Hence, to move toward a probabilistic risk based ship design paradigm for ship–ship collision in a local trading area, more focus and research is needed to establish a credible link.     

Review and application of ship collision and grounding analysis procedures

It is the purpose of the paper to present a review of prediction and analysis tools for collision and grounding analyses and to outline a probabilistic procedure for which these tools can be used by the maritime industry to develop performance based rules to reduce the risk associated with human, environmental and economic costs of collision and grounding events. The main goal of collision and grounding research should be to identify the most economic risk control options associated with prevention and mitigation of collision and grounding events.     

Analysis of structural crashworthiness of double-hull ships in collision and grounding

A conceptual design framework for collision and grounding analysis is proposed to evaluate the crashworthiness of double-hull structures. This work attempts to simplify the input parameters needed for the analysis, which can be considered as a step towards a design-oriented procedure against collision and grounding. Four typical collision and grounding scenarios are considered: (1) side structure struck by a bulbous bow, (2) side structure struck by a straight bow, (3) bottom raking, (4) bottom stranding. The analyses of these scenarios are based on statistical data of striking ship dimensions, velocities, collision angles and locations, as well as seabed shapes and sizes, grounding depth and location. The evaluation of the damage extent considers the 50- and 90-percentile values from the statistics of collision and grounding accidents. The external dynamics and internal mechanics are combined to analyse systematically the ship structural damage and energy absorption under accidental loadings.     

基于蜂窝单元的海上交通风险分析

传统的船舶交通风险分析是将研究水域作为一个整体来评估其风险状况的。基于蜂窝单元的船舶交通风险分析,把研究水域按一定标准划分为若干地理单元,将历史数据、数学模型以及专家学者的经验和判断有机地结合起来,用以评估每一地理单元船舶碰撞和搁浅事故的概率,其输出结果以地理分布的形式突出了高风险区域。相对于传统的风险分析,该理论更能够全面、准确地描述水域的风险状况,为采纳和实施正确的安全措施提供了强有力的支持。     

Plate tearing and bottom damage in ship grounding

A theoretical method for plate tearing by a rigid wedge is developed in this paper. The studied model is an idealization of ship-grounding and collision damage. The analysis model postulates that the plate curls up into two curved surfaces behind the wedge tip and that the plate material ahead of the wedge is tensioned and ruptured due to the direct pushing. Based on a parametric study, a semi-empirical formula is proposed for determining grounding force in the event of a ship running onto rocks in a high-energy grounding. The bottom strengths of single hull structures and double hull structures in ship-grounding incidents are compared. Finally, simple formulae for determining damage resistance and the extent of damage in ship grounding, expressed in terms of the ship principal particulars, are developed.     

波浪引起破损船的垂向运动和弯矩（英文）

The wave-induced vertical ship motions and bending moments of a double hull-oil tanker in realistic flooding conditions are studied. The scenarios investigated are represented by water ingress into the starboard ballast tanks for collision damage cases and both starboard and portside ballast tanks for grounding situations. Seakeeping computations are performed for eight damage scenarios and for the intact condition, each corresponding to different changes in displacement, trim, and heel. For each of the damage conditions, transfer functions of vertical motions and loads are calculated using a potential linear 3 D panel hydrodynamic code in the frequency domain that includes effect of the motion of the water in flooded tanks. A MATLAB code is developed to facilitate automated hydrodynamic simulation of many damage scenarios. Verification of seakeeping results is performed by comparing transfer functions with results of the previous study. Wave-induced vertical responses of damaged ship are then compared to those of intact ship using two spectral-based methods originating from uncertainty analysis of wave loads, which are convenient tools to assess consequences of damage on short-term ship responses. Generally, observed trend is that vertical wave-induced responses of damaged ship converge toward those of intact ship with increasing wave period. Fairly small differences between responses of asymmetrically damaged ship with respect to the symmetrical incoming wave directions are found. The results of the study are an efficient method for seakeeping assessment of damaged oil tankers and the framework for evaluating consequences of damage scenarios, heading angles, and sea conditions on seakeeping responses of damaged ships.The results can be used to decide if the intact ship model can be used instead of the damaged one for the emergency response procedure or for the risk assessment studies when modeling and computational time represent important limitations.     

墨西哥NOM标准下雷电防护系统设计的解决方案

针对墨西哥的NOM标准对于建构筑物雷电防护系统的设计规定与国标GB 50057和美标NFPA780差异较大的问题,基于墨西哥某集装箱码头工程,对墨标、国标、美标在建筑物防雷风险评估、年预计雷击次数、可承受雷击次数、外部防雷措施、接闪器、引下线及接地系统等方面进行分析比较,得出墨标在防雷风险评估及外部防雷措施上与国标及美标的主要区别点及雷电防护系统的设计步骤。结果表明,墨标以建筑物年预测雷击次数与规定的可承受雷击频率比较来确定是否需要设置外部防雷措施,国标的防雷分类法已经考虑了风险权重且易于执行,美标风险评估方法相对更复杂。     

船舶碰撞机理与耐撞性结构设计研究综述

研究船舶碰撞和触底事故的机理,以及如何提高船舶结构耐撞性是船舶碰撞研究领域的热点.文章介绍了解析法、数值仿真技术和风险分析法的发展与应用特点,阐述了近些年来船舶碰撞、船舶触底、缓冲船首设计、船桥碰撞和船舶与海洋平台碰撞等领域的研究成果,列举了一些降低船舶碰撞和触底事故风险的新型结构设计,并对今后的研究方向提出了若干建议.     

Marine accident analysis for collision and grounding in oil tanker using FTA method

In this study, collision and grounding data registered in GISIS (Global Integrated Shipping Information System) were investigated for oil tankers. The database includes the information of the collision and grounding accidents during the period between 1998 and 2010 in oil tankers. The risk assessments were carried out using fault tree analysis (FTA) programme for the incidents as collision and grounding occurred in oil tankers. In this study, we were able to investigate first the potential problems which cause the collision and grounding accidents have been determined, second, the occurrence of accidents has been shown with causal factors by the FTA method, and, finally, the significance degree of the initial events causing occurrence of accidents have been put forth. Collision in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (81%), pollution (6%) and death or injury (13%). Grounding in oil tanker resulted in economical loss (91%) and pollution (9%). According to the FTA results, the main reason for the accidents originating from human error is as follows: for collision accidents, Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) violation and the lack of communication between vessels; and for grounding accidents, the interpretation failure of the officer on watch and lack of communication in the bridge resource management.     

海上风机支撑结构的时域和频域疲劳对比研究

对海上风机支撑结构进行动力响应分析,求出结构危险节点的载荷谱和功率谱密度函数,结合疲劳损伤模型和Dirlik概率模型,分别在时域和频域内对支撑结构进行疲劳寿命分析.由于时域法计算疲劳寿命需进行应力循环计数,这一过程需处理的数据庞大,耗时长.频域法省去应力循环计数,代之以概率密度函数,可相对准确、快速地计算结构的疲劳寿命.分析结果表明,采用Dirlik概率模型的频域分析法能较准确地反映海上风机支撑结构在随机载荷作用下的疲劳损伤情况,计算结果误差在可接受范围内.     

Time-variant bulk carrier reliability analysis in pure bending intact and damage conditions

Time-variant reliability analysis of a corroded bulk carrier in intact and damage conditions is performed by First-Order (FORM), Second-Order (SORM) Reliability Methods and Importance Sampling simulation. Annual failure probabilities are determined up to 25-year ship lifetime, accounting for time-variant corrosion wastage of structural members contributing to hull girder strength. Statistical properties of hull girder capacity are determined by Monte Carlo simulation, applying three correlation models among corrosion wastages of structural members contributing to hull girder strength, namely no correlation, full correlation and full correlation among wastages of structural members belonging to the same category of compartments. A modified incremental-iterative method is applied, to account for instantaneous neutral axis rotation, in case of asymmetrical damage conditions, as for collision and grounding events. Incidence of intact/damage condition, as well as correlation among corrosion wastages, on annual sagging/hogging time-variant failure probability is investigated and discussed. Time-variant sensitivity analyses for intact and damage conditions are also performed, to investigate the incidence of random variables' uncertainties on the attained failure probability. Finally, the bulk carrier section scheme, benchmarked in the last ISSC Report, is applied as test case.     

FEM approach to the simulation of collision and grounding damage

Recently, finite element detailed simulations of collision and grounding damage to the hull structures have been practicable. For example, rigid body motions and non-linear structural responses can be calculated by a desk-top engineering workstation within a CPU time of one week, employing finite element models assembled by more than 700,000 elements. Although considerable preparatory man-power is required and the accuracy of the results is still open for further improvement, finite element method approach is the most powerful way at present. On the other hand, simplified analytical approach is suited for a series of qualitative survey, however, it tends to be erroneous when the subject is varying from the fundamental assumptions laid originally for the specific case. The present paper points out several uncertain factors involved in the typical simplified analytical approach such as hull girder bending, forward velocity of a collided ship, etc., that may affect the crashworthiness significantly.     

某公务船抗碰撞性能研究

公务船在领海和专属经济区执行维权执法任务时,存在较高的与其他船舶发生主动或被动碰撞的风险。为了准确评估公务船的耐撞性能,本文以某公务船为例,考虑多种计算工况,对目标船的耐撞性能进行动态响应计算,获得了机舱及首部区域的结构损伤、应力、能量吸收等动态结构响应,并计算获得被撞船达到临界状态时的极限撞击速度。研究成果可为公务船的防撞结构设计提供参考。     

Oil spill risk analysis of routeing heavy ship traffic in Norwegian waters

Norwegian authorities have for a long time been concerned about the risk of oil spills outside the Norwegian coast. One of the key measures adopted has been to reduce the risk of ship accidents by imposing sailing routes for heavy ship traffic (over 5,000 gross tonnages) with high environmental risk potential farther away from part of the coast. This article is based upon two reports which conducted risk assessments of imposing such sailing routes outside the entire Norwegian coast. These routes were proposed by an expert group consisting of relevant stakeholders. Data of traffic pattern and number of sailing were collected for the year 2008 using the universal Automatic Identification System (AIS). The proposed route was compared with 2008 traffic pattern in regard to the accident frequencies and the expected oil spills per year. An accident and oil spilling simulation program called MARCS was used to simulate these results. After conducting a traffic forecast for the year 2025, the simulation was again run and the results compared with the year 2008. In total, the proposed route is expected to reduce oil spills by 590 t per year in 2008 and by 3670?t in 2025. The main reason for this substantial reduction is that the number of groundings is reduced because of the distance from the shore being increased. The reduction was particularly strong for tankers.     

破损船体的剩余极限强度分析

基于ABS和DNv规范关于剩余强度规范要求,对船舶碰撞与搁浅的破损部位和范围的假定,考虑了发生碰撞与搁浅破损后,其船体梁剩余有效剖面的非对称性和可能发生不同程度倾斜的情况,采用结构共同规范(CSR)中的逐步破坏分析方法和船体梁非对称剖面计算模型,分别计算了散货船和油船破损船体在两种破损模式和不同倾斜情况下的剩余极限强度,并对不同破损范围的影响进行了分析和比较。研究结果为协调结构共同规范(HCSR)的制定提供了有价值的参考。     

Full six degrees of freedom coupled dynamic simulation of ship collision and grounding accidents

By taking advantage of the user-defined load subroutine (loadud) and the user common subroutine (usercomm) in LS-DYNA, the authors proposed a new coupled approach for simultaneously calculating structural damage and the planar 3DOF ship motions in ship collisions. The coupled procedure aimed at predicting the detailed structural damage together with reasonable global ship motions. This paper extends the method to consider the full 6DOF ship motions; thus, ship collision as well as grounding accidents can be properly handled. This method is particularly useful for design purposes because the detailed ship hull profile is not needed.A traditional ship maneuvering model is used for the in-plane surge, sway and yaw degrees of freedom with a series of nondimensional coefficients determined from experiments. It is assumed that the out-of-plane degrees of freedom are not coupled with the in-plane ship motions, and there is no coupling among roll, pitch and heave motions. The implementation is verified through free decay tests, and the obtained natural periods show good agreement with theoretical results.Several collision and grounding cases are simulated in which a supply vessel crashes into rigid plates with different orientations. The effects of the roll motion, the heave and pitch motions and the full 6DOF motions are studied. The results are compared with those from a 6DOF decoupled method. Ship motions through the proposed method compare reasonably well with SIMO results. It is found that several consecutive impacts may occur in the simulation of one collision case due to the periodic motions. This is not taken into account in the decoupled method, which makes this method unconservative.     

Performance characterisation for risk assessment of striking ship impacts based on struck ship damaged volume

Ship collision accidents are rare events but pose huge threat to human lives, assets, and the environment. Many researchers have sought for effective models that compute ship stochastic response during collisions by considering the variability of ship collision scenario parameters. However, the existing models were limited by the capability of the collision computational models and did not completely capture collision scenario, and material and geometric uncertainties. In this paper, a novel framework to performance characterisation of ships in collision involving a variety of striking ships is developed, by characterising the structural consequences with efficient response models. A double-hull oil carrier is chosen as the struck ship to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework. Response surface techniques are employed to generate the most probable input design sets which are used to sample an automated finite element tool to compute the chosen structural consequences. The resulting predictor-response relationships are fitted with suitable surrogate models to probabilistically characterise the struck ship damage under collisions. As demonstrated in this paper, such models are extremely useful to reduce the computational complexity in obtaining probabilistic design measures for ship structures. The proposed probabilistic approach is also combined with available collision frequency models from literature to demonstrate the risk tolerance computations.     

基于专家系统和搜索算法避碰系统的研究

介绍了一种运用了专家系统和动作空间搜索的避碰系统。运用模糊理论来推论碰撞危险度,通过A搜索算法设计避碰行为。船舶动作空间搜索算法源于运用了船舶航行规范的专家系统。通过ECDIS中的人机界面及数学仿真结果,证明了采用专家机制的避碰系统可以采取更合理的行动。