中国集装箱运输进口环境分析与预测

2010年4月18日,广交会上公布了一份《后危机时代中国外贸发展战略》研究报告,详细提出未来10年中国将推动货物和服务贸易双双实现“倍增”,未来20年初步实现由贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。这是中国首次明确后危机时代的外贸“发展战略图”。     

希腊大选后的中欧经贸

中欧均高度重视双边经贸合作,《欧洲2020战略》视我国为未来10年欧盟最重要的贸易伙伴。我国当前经济增长强劲,快速发展的内需市场对欧盟摆脱危机、实现经济复苏至关重要。中欧均高度重视双边经贸合作,《欧洲2020战略》视我国为未来10年欧盟最重要的贸易伙伴。我国当前经济增长强劲,快速发展的内需市场对欧盟摆脱危机、实现经济复苏至关重要。     

港口企业面向后危机时代的战略选择

当前．全球范围内的金融危机对世界经济产生了严重影响，国际间的贸易、投资和产业转移进程受到了阻碍．这给多年来保持高速增长的中国港口行业带来了新的挑战。妥善应对危机是各港口企业当前的紧要任务。同时．我们更要考虑面向后危机时代港口行业如何调整和完善发展战略．实现新一轮的增长。     

长三角港口规划与建设重点

长江三角洲未来发展面临的机遇和挑战 1“两个率先”战略的实施将促进长三角港口的快速发展 根据党的“十六大”提出的全面建设小康社会的奋斗目标,以及中央提出的东部沿海地区率先实现现代化的要求,长三角地区2010年将总体全面实现小康,2020年将总体实现现代化.因此,在未来十几年,长三角及长江沿线地区国民经济、外贸进出口仍将保持快速发展,必将带动港口吞吐量的增长.     

后危机时代呼唤港口经济理论创新

国际金融危机对2009年我国港口发展带来了重大影响，面临外需不振、贸易保护主义而引起的外贸吞吐量的下降、港口之间竞争加剧、港口企业效益下滑，港口企业为此而困惑不已。其实，从更深层次角度看，它反映了中国港口长期发展中存在着的科学理念缺失。在经济危机从企稳趋好到经济恢复增长的这一段后危机时代，伴随着我国的积极扩大内需、推进经济增长方式转型，港口业也将呼唤港口经济理论创新。     

声音

商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院院长霍建国： 正在起草培育和引领“国际经济合作竞争新优势”的文件,开始对打造“贸易强国”展开部署。“贸易强国”重点提出了培养外贸竞争新优势的思路,以“技术、品牌、质量、服务”为核心,配套内容还涉及营销网络、跨国公司的发展思路、海外投资以及下一步如何发展服务贸易等。中国将在2020年初步形成一个具有一定竞争优势的贸易强国。     

国际海运年会把脉航运发展

20lO年11月9日，以“把握未来”为主题的“第七届国际海运（中国）年会2010”在广州开幕，14家全球航运及相关行业的专家学者、政府官员等1000余人齐聚广州，围绕“视野·格局”“战略·应变”“布局·调整”“绿色·创新”“共享·多赢”五大主题，为后危机时期全球航运业发展把脉。     

2010国际海运（中国）年会在广州举行

2010国际海运（中国）年会于2010年11月8—10日在广州隆重举行。本届年会以＂把握未来＂为主题,围绕＂视野格局＂＂战略应变＂＂集成增值＂＂布局调整＂＂绿色创新＂＂共享多赢＂等6大议题,为后危机时代全球航运业发展把脉。     

金融服务业助力航运物流与基础建设,共同推进“一带一路”

当今世界正发生复杂而深刻的变化,国际金融危机的深层次影响继续显现,世界经济缓慢复苏、发展分化,国际投资贸易格局和多边投资贸易规则正酝酿深刻的调整,各国面临的发展问题依然严峻.自2013年9月和10月,中国国家主席习近平在出访中亚和东南亚国家期间,先后提出共建“丝绸之路经济带”和“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的重大倡议以来,“一带一路”的倡议为促进沿线各国、各地区的经济发展提供了新的历史机遇,尤其是“海上丝绸之路”战略,为航运物流企业的国际化经营创造了更好的投资发展环境.“一带一路”实施两年以来,中国的投资贸易结构已悄然展开了新的图景.     

对后危机时代港口发展的几点思考

"后危机时代"的特点、经济特征为中国港口发展带来了一定影响。通过对后危机时代港口发展基本走势的分析,指出未来港口竞争新优势必须要转型发展,以提高可持续发展的能力。     

我国主要内贸集装箱航线运量预测

在对我国内贸三大货源地中各主要运输节点集装箱生成量进行预测的基础上，根据各种运输方式进行合理分流，得出了未来10年我国主要内贸集装箱航线的运量，并依据预测结果对我国内贸集装箱运输的发展提出了建议。     

Speech at the Celebration on 30-Year Anniversary of Resumption of Sino-US Maritime Trade

30 year may be long enough for a human being,but 30years is just a blink for the maritime industry.I believe the Sino-US maritime trade is forever young!     

A model for forecasting future supply of shipping services at Australian ports

This paper aims to develop an integrated model for forecasting both the number of ship visits and their characteristics in the medium and long term. Knowledge of future shipping trends for any port is no doubt important, as the future number of ship visits and their characteristics may have implications for the physical facilities of a port. In addition, more reliance on tonnages as a revenue source has made this knowledge more valuable. The proposed model identifies such major economic determinants as the expected trade throughput, world shipping trends, standards of facilities and future plans of shipping companies/agents. The model examines three possible scenarios for the Port of Melbourne and produces a range of shipping forecasts based on certain assumptions. From the model the major findings were:

world trends in shipping did not have any immediate impact on the shipping trends at the Port of Melbourne;

Future shipping services at the Port of Melbourne in the next 11 years are most likely to be determined by trade demand rather than by technological developments overseas;

there has been no evidence to indicate that the Port of Melbourne has been excluded from the schedule of general cargo ships due to the Port's physical constraints.     

The growth and patterns of international trade

Over the last 40 years, there has been an unprecedented growth in trade amongst countries, and the growth in trade shows no sign of slowing down. The increases in trade have put tremendous pressure on the maritime and port industries, and these industries have responded with innovations, investment, and greater productivity. International trade and maritime trade are synonyms, and an understanding of the determinants of international trade is central to understanding maritime trade. In this paper, we provide a review of the international trade literature with a focus on the determinants of trade and the evolution of trade modeling. We then present a broad overview of the extent and growth of trade in the context of primary determinants. The basic results are: (1) Trade is growing at a phenomenal rate; (2) Trade is dominated by relatively few countries who tend to remain dominant; (3) While trade of all products is growing, there are large differences in the growth rates, but yet, there is stability in the relative sizes of product markets; and (4) Over the last 40 years, trade has changed from major flows between the US and Europe to major flows between Asia and the US.     

市场需要理性

在去年举办的第五届海运年会上,我们以"度势运筹"(Navigating Cross Currents)为题,对航运业在国际金融危机冲击下的发展形势进行了深入探讨。而一年来航运业的实际发展形势,验证了我们当初的判断。     

Disruption risks and mitigation strategies: an analysis of Asian ports

The critical nature of a seaport is a connection point. In addition to the effect on port operations, a port disruption will be a strain on trade flows and the various parties concerned. Climate change, oil spill, security, social and political instability are increasing concerns over the years which would lead to higher risks. With significant growing trade volume in Asia, there is a pressing need for comprehensive studies to prepare ports for disruptions. This paper aims to analyse and categorise the disruptions that have occurred in Asian ports and estimate the likelihood of recurrence based on the data since the year 1900. Results reveal a rising trend of disruptive events. Natural disasters and labour strikes are the two main causes of port disruptions, while natural disasters lead to the highest severity in terms of cargo tons affected. Mitigation strategies proposed in terms of both preventive and reactive measures are specifically designed to reduce the likelihood and severity of the various types of port disruptions. The paper provides recommendations on risk mitigation for relevant parties.     

An econometric analysis for container shipping market

This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity.

This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%.     

港口吞吐量变动的内在特征研究

以上海港为例,采用经验模态分解的方法对港口吞吐量的变化特征进行探讨。结果表明港口货物吞吐量具有3～4个月、准6个月、准1年、准2年、准6年的显著变化周期。分析后认为港口吞吐量这些变化特征和波动周期与社会生产和消费具有季节性、国民经济发展规律和宏观调控、国际贸易经济波动等有关。最后,分析指出了模态分解结果对实际工作的指导意义。     

船用柴油——电力推进器的发展与应用

柴油-电力推进装置在钻井平台供应船（PSV）和首尾同型渡船等对操纵灵活性要求严格的小型船舶市场上占有一席之地。