Evaluation of safety and environmental risk at individual ship and company level

Whereas current risk profiling methods used in the maritime sector largely rely on detention risk, we extend them by considering various risk dimensions and by evaluating a wide range of risk factors including pollution and damage costs. Risk factors include ship particulars such as vessel type and the nature of companies and owners, as well as historical information on past accidents, inspections, and changes of particulars. We present methods to summarize and visualize the various risk dimensions paying particular attention to the identification of potentially risky companies. The results are obtained by combining unique data sets with information on ship arrivals, inspections, and accidents covering 2006-2010.     

Ship safety index

This paper develops a new quantitative safety index for each worldwide sea-going vessel based on their condition information and safety records. The safety index can generate a relative risk score using binary logistic regression method and a dataset with both static and dynamic information covering over 90% of the world sea-going merchant fleet. It has a widely potential usage for both industry and academic research, e.g., for port authorities to determine whether an on board inspection is needed; for insurers to determine premium rate; and for shipowners to identify functional areas for repair and maintenance.     

Airline industry deregulation and changes in systematic risk

Deregulation of U.S. Airline Industry may have lowered systematic risk because pricing freedom and route flexibility improved airline management reaction to various economic conditions. Reduced systematic risk offers lower cost of equity capital for the industry as a whole as well as for individual carriers. Previous research has had mixed results in identifying a relationship between deregulation and airline industry cost of capital. This study plots airline industry Beta coefficients across the years 1963 to 1987 and clears up previously conflicting research findings. Beta coefficients had been falling since the fuel crisis of 1974 and continued to fall through 1980. Fluctuations since deregulation have been relatively minor and systematic risk has leveled off at a significantly lower value than before deregulation. Studies which concentrate on the fluctuation in Beta since 1978 are dependent on the exact time period of analysis, and their conclusions that deregulation raised or lowered systematic risk are likewise suspect. A broader view of systematic risk changes in the deregulatory era shows airline Betas peaking from 1971 to 1973 and a gradual decrease as deregulation was being discussed, implemented, and legally mandated. This gradual decline from 1974 to 1980 may be attributed to such factors as fuel prices, interest rates, general inflation as well as deregulation. In any case systematic risk of the U.S. Airline industry has been lower since deregulation than in decades before.     

A canonical correlation analysis of carrier financial strategy: The case of airline deregulation

This study investigates U.S. airline managements' perception of deregulation's impact upon the industry's financial risk by analyzing the airlines' risk management behavior. Specifically, canonical correlation analysis is utilized to ascertain key asset-liability/equity interrelationships and to identify changes in airline risk management as indicated by changes in financial structure. A control sample of nonregulated firms in various service industries is used to separate the effects of general economic conditions from those of deregulation. The results indicate that the airline industry adjusted its financial structure to reduce the industry's exposure to risk as the industry became deregulated. The industry decreased its financial leverage through greater use of equity vis-à-vis debt to finance its long-term assets while simultaneously increasing its liquidity. Definitive conclusions concerning the industry's perception of financial risk after deregulation had been in place a few years are precluded by two external events which occurred in 1978—the requirement that leases be capitalized on the balance sheet and the rapid fuel price increases spurred by the Iran-Iraq war. However, the results clearly show the industry perceived greater financial risk during the early years of de facto CAB deregulation.     

An epsilon-optimal algorithm considering greenhouse gas emissions for the management of a ship’s bunker fuel

This paper provides an algorithm to minimize the fixed ordering, purchase, and inventory-carrying costs associated with bunker fuel together with ship time costs; and environmental costs associated with greenhouse gas emissions. It determines the optimum ship speed, bunkering ports, and amounts of bunker fuel for a given ship’s route. To solve the problem, we use an epsilon-optimal algorithm by deriving a property. The algorithm is illustrated by applying it to typical sample data obtained and the effects of bunker prices, carbon taxes, and ship time costs on the ship speed are analyzed. The results indicate that the ship speed and CO₂ emissions are highly sensitive to the factors considered.     

Configuration of an overnight package air network

The advent and growth of the overnight package industry has been one of the most dramatic changes in North American transportation over the last 10 years. This paper examines the impact of overnight restrictions and time zones on the configuration of an air freight network. The location of a hub terminal impacts the arrival pattern of airplanes at the terminal. For locations to the east of center, arrivals are spread over a longer time span than for locations to the west of center. This allows shipments to be delivered within a short time window without as large investments in sorting equipment. The impact of overnight restrictions on multiple terminal networks is also examined.     

Productivity changes in Taiwan's port industry incorporating environmental regulations on harbor water quality

Abstract

This paper evaluates the productivity changes in Taiwan's port industry for the period 2003–2007. Based on a ‘three-year-window’ data envelopment analysis method, Luenberger productivity indicators are employed to estimate the productivity changes that account for the success of attempts by port agents to control harbor water quality. This is one of the typical environmental concerns in port operations that prior studies on port productivity changes over time have not considered. The results show that the productivity of Taiwan's port industry has experienced growth over the study period, regardless of whether water quality has been considered or not. At a disaggregated level, however, if a port agent has succeeded in controlling water quality, but we do not consider it, the results will misclassify the agent by understating the port's productivity.     

Agent-based model of maritime traffic in piracy-affected waters

Contemporary maritime piracy presents a significant threat to global shipping industry, with annual costs estimated at up to US$7bn. To counter the threat, policymakers, shipping operators and navy commanders need new data-driven decision-support tools that will allow them to plan and execute counter-piracy operations most effectively. So far, the provision of such tools has been limited. In cooperation with maritime domain stakeholders, we have therefore developed AgentC, a data-driven agent-based simulation model of maritime traffic that explicitly models pirate activity and piracy countermeasures. Modeling the behavior and interactions of thousands of individually simulated vessels, the model is capable of capturing the complex dynamics of the maritime transportation system threatened by maritime piracy and allows assessing the potential of a range of piracy countermeasures. We demonstrate the what-if analysis capabilities of the model on a real-world case study of designing a new transit corridor system in the Indian Ocean. The simulation results reveal that the positive past experience with the transit corridor in the narrow Gulf of Aden does not directly translate to the vast and open waters of the Indian Ocean and that additional factors have to be considered when designing corridor systems. The agent-based simulation development and calibration process used for building the presented model is general and can be used for developing simulation models of other maritime transportation phenomena.     

Autonomous technologies in short sea shipping: trends,feasibility and implications

ABSTRACT

The maritime industry has been continuously transforming the nature of its business and striving to embrace technology in many aspects. In this context, autonomous technologies have been receiving momentum with a potential to revolutionise the landscape of shipping industry. After conducting a comprehensive literature review on the issues facing by the short sea shipping (SSS) industry, a model is developed to explore the potential savings of removing crew and use of autonomous technologies through a Continuously Unmanned Ship (CUS) that is operated by a Shore Control Centre (SCC). The analysis shows that autonomous technologies are viable to the challenges that the shipping industry is facing in terms of crew costs and skill shortage. To validate this statement, a case study is selected and various scenarios were tested based on relevant operational and financial considerations, including crew arrangement, cargo utilisation levels and shore wage coefficients. The results suggest that the savings occur in demand-uncertain markets and where a network of vessels are operated via a control centre. While autonomous technology use in shipping holds promise, there remain several limitations that this research addresses in terms of implementation, commercial attractiveness, risk profile, legislative, workforce planning and port operations.     

Efficient contracting and incentive agreements between regulators and bus operators: The influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice

Contracts that govern transactions between regulators and operators are an important feature of service delivery in public transport. This paper reviews the literature on efficient contracting in general and its application to public transport contracts and found little empirical evidence on the influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice, a fundamental premise of classical contracting theory. Departing from the existing literature, this paper develops a choice experiment to study public transport operators’ preferences for different contractual forms. People involved in the public transport industry across Australia are invited to do the survey but the respondents are mainly bus operators in New South Wales. The respondents are offered two hypothetical contracts with different risk profiles and incentives and asked to indicate their preferences as well as their acceptance to provide the services under the contract they prefer. A non-linear scaled multinomial logit model is estimated to establish the role of risk allocation on contract preference of bus operators and the optimal amount of risks and incentives, conditioned on the operators’ attitude towards risk. The results help authorities design performance-based contracts to obtain their objectives while maintaining the operators’ level of satisfaction.     

Changes in transport risk perception in urban populations in Norway from 2004 to 2013

Urban populations transport risk perception is interesting because it is associated with travel mode choices and use. This study investigates changes in transport-related risk constructs in the urban population in Norway in 2004 and 2013, and describes whether people perceive private or public to be associated with the highest risk. The results are based on self-completion questionnaire surveys conducted in two independent representative samples living in the same urban areas in 2004 (n?=?592) and 2013 (n?=?1035). Overall, the respondents perceived the risk as lower in 2013 than in 2004. For both time periods, people consistently assessed the risk constructs related to private motorized transportation as higher than corresponding risk in public transportation. The findings suggest that while transportation risk perception in urban populations may change over time, the pattern that private motorized transportation is associated with a higher perceived risk than public transportation remains stable.     

Greening ports and maritime logistics: A review

This paper aims to examine the past and present research on ‘green ports and maritime logistics’ in order to identify established research streams and fertile research areas with potential for future investigations. Using rigorous bibliometric and network analysis tools, the paper completes a systemic mapping of the existing literature and identifies the key investigators, collaboration patterns, research clusters and interrelationships, and the “seminal research areas” that have provided the field with the foundational knowledge, concepts, theories, tools, and techniques. Major articles within each seminal research area are also identified. This will allow new researchers to quickly build understanding in a particular sub-field by reading these major articles. The findings obtained from the evolution of seminal research areas over time are important from both research and practice perspectives and can help the field grow in many dimensions.     

How can the maritime industry meet Sustainable Development Goals? An analysis of sustainability reports from the social entrepreneurship perspective

Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) are a comprehensive agenda agreed upon globally that aims to stimulate actions towards economic, environmental and social sustainability. Being one of the key stakeholders, the international maritime industry plays an important role in contributing to global sustainability. By applying the concept of social entrepreneurship (SE), this study aims to examine (1) the basic and extended responsibilities (SDG 1–SDG 16) and (2) the potential collaborations within the value chain (SDG 17) concerning SDG implementation in maritime industry. To achieve these, we conduct a content analysis of sustainability reports published by container shipping liners and terminal operators from 2016 to 2019. More specifically, manual text classification is adopted to categorise the text content of sustainability reports based on 17 SDGs, and automatic text mining is employed to further identify the key roles of maritime industry related to each SDG. A unified framework is proposed, which points to varied motives and levels of comprehensiveness of the sustainability efforts by the maritime industry. This framework reveals the theoretic process of maritime industry's transitional involvement in sustainability from the SE perspective. It also creates managerial implications regarding the resource allocation strategies by maritime industry in meeting SDGs.     

Assessing the long term benefit of banning the use of hand-held wireless devices while driving

An increasing number of legislative efforts have been undertaken to prohibit the use of hand-held wireless devices while driving. As of July 2012, ten states and the District of Columbia enforce laws banning the use of hand-held cell phones while driving. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia have banned text messaging while driving. Recent studies of driver behavior suggest that hand-held wireless device usage negatively impacts driver performance. However few studies at the aggregate level address the plausible link between the use of hand-held wireless devices while driving, increased risk of automobile accidents, and government legislative efforts to reduce such risk. This paper analyzes data at the aggregate level and builds a regression model to estimate the long term accident rate reduction due to a hand-held ban. This model differs from previous studies, which consider short term accident rate reduction, by considering time trends in the accident rate due to the ban. Additionally, counties considered in this analysis are placed into groups based on driver density, defined by the number of licensed drivers per centerline mile of roadway, and a separate analysis is performed within these groups. This approach allows one to better quantify the effect of hand-held bans in counties of different driver densities. Results from this paper suggest that bans on hand-held wireless device use while driving reduce the rate of personal injury accidents in counties with high levels of driver density, but may increase accident rates in counties with low driver density levels. These results can inform transportation policymakers interested in reducing automobile-accident-risk attributable to the use of hand-held wireless devices while driving.     

Dynamic stochastic journey time estimation and reliability analysis using stochastic cell transmission model: Algorithm and case studies

This paper proposes a framework for evaluating the distributions of stochastic dynamic link travel time and journey time as well as assessing the journey time reliability. Due to the stochastic nature of the flow profiles, the paper devises a sampling process to estimate the probability mass function (PMF) of the link travel time. This sampling process defines a likelihood concept that measures the probability of the difference between the cumulative stochastic link inflow and outflow profiles to be less than or equal to a prescribed bound. Based on this likelihood measure, the probability mass function (PMF) of the link travel time is evaluated over an appropriate sampling interval. The PMF of the journey time is then evaluated by extending the deterministic nested delay operator to a stochastic version which is defined as a series of “nested” conditional probabilities of the link travel time PMFs along the route. This paper also proposes a method to fit the PMF of the journey time to a class of statistical distribution to determine its skewness, which is useful in the analysis of journey time reliability. The paper then analyzes journey time reliability via the properties of dynamic travel time distributions such as confidence intervals and shape parameters. The proposed algorithm is applied to estimate the stochastic journey time on a freeway corridor from the stochastic cumulative inflow and outflow profiles generated from the stochastic cell transmission model. This methodology is validated with two empirical studies: (i) estimations of journey time distribution and reliability analysis for one short freeway segment in California during a specific time period and (ii) the effects of traffic incidents on journey time reliability for a long expressway corridor of Hanshin expressway (between Osaka and Kobe) in Japan.     

Using Seismic Tomography and Holography Ground Imaging to Investigate Ground Conditions

Unforeseen, variable subsurface ground conditions present the greatest challenge to the heavy construction and civil engineering industry in the design, construction, and maintenance of large projects. A detailed, accurate site investigation will reduce project risk, improve construction performance and safety, prolong the life of the tunnel or structure,and prevent waste in over - design. Presently, site characterization and geotechnical engineering are limited by the inability to adequately describe these subsurface ground conditions.NSA Geotechnical Services has successfully applied seismic tomography and holography ground imaging technologies on tunneling and heavy civil excavations worldwide. Seismic signal waveforms traveling through a complex medium consist of various arrivals from refractions, reflections, scattering, and dispersion. Tomography and holography are proven inversion technologies for estimating location and extent of material property variations causing changes in signal waveforms.ent attenuation rates and velocities. Seismic waves will travel faster through competent material and be generally less attenuated than through broken/fractured ground or voids.encounters an interface between ground zones possessing different seismic properties. Most geologic structures, anomalies,and changes in lithology provide detectable seismic reflections if they are within a reasonable distance of the seismic source.This paper will present various applications of these technologies, illustrating how seismic imaging can provide accurate information regarding ground conditions associated with tunneling projects. With this information, engineers can complete projects safely, within time and budget constraints.     

A cost-based maritime container assignment model

A recently proposed frequency-based maritime container assignment model (Bell et al., 2011) seeks an assignment of full and empty containers to paths that minimises expected container travel time, whereas containers are in practice more likely to be assigned to minimise expected cost. A cost-based container assignment model is proposed here. It is assumed that routes and service frequencies are given so ship operating costs are also fixed. The objective is to assign containers to routes to minimise container handling costs, container rental and inventory costs. The constraints in the model are extended to include route as well as port capacities. It is shown that the problem remains a linear program. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the properties of the model. The paper concludes by considering the many applications of the proposed maritime container assignment model.     

A queuing model analysis of the performance of the Hong Kong container terminals

The growth of container‐handling industry and its impact on Hong Kong's economy have aroused considerable attention in recent decades. Within the recent twenty years, the rapid growth of container‐handling industry has led Hong Kong to become one of the world's busiest container port with over 11 million T.E.U. s (Twenty Feet Equivalent Units) container throughput in one year period. Also the container throughput is expected to reach 15.5 million T.E.U. s by year 2004.

As the success of container‐handling industry is significant, many studies have been conducted relating to this subject. In this paper, an application of a queuing theory model to Kwai Chung Container Terminals is developed and described. Specifically, we consider seasonal changes at the Terminals and focus on their effects on inter‐arrival time and service time of container vessel.

A crucial component of the study relates to the empirical data collected. Besides verifying the validity of the model, those data provide guidelines for developing schemes to manage the seasonal fluctuation of container throughput of the Terminals.     

Optimal planning of liquefied natural gas deliveries

We investigate the problem of designing an optimal annual delivery plan for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This problem requires determining the long-term cargo delivery dates and the assignment of vessels to the cargoes while accommodating several constraints, including berth availability, liquefaction terminal inventory, planned maintenance, and bunkering requirements. We describe a novel mixed-integer programming formulation that captures important industry requirements and constraints with the objective of minimizing the vessel fleet size. A peculiar property of the proposed formulation is that it includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints and is, in our experience, computationally tractable for large problem instances using a commercial solver. Extensive computational runs demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model for real instances provided by a major energy company that involve up to 118 cargoes and a 373-day planning horizon.