A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands

This paper presents results of an online stated choice experiment on preferences of Dutch private car owners for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and their characteristics. Results show that negative preferences for alternative fuel vehicles are large, especially for the electric and fuel cell car, mostly as a result of their limited driving range and considerable refueling times. Preference for AFVs increases considerably with improvements on driving range, refueling time and fuel availability. Negative AFV preferences remain, however, also with substantial improvements in AFV characteristics; the remaining willingness to accept is on average € 10,000–€ 20,000 per AFV. Results from a mixed logit model show that consumer preferences for AFVs and AFV characteristics are heterogeneous to a large extent, in particular for the electric car, additional detour time and fuel time for the electric and fuel cell car. An interaction model reveals that annual mileage is by far the most important factor that determines heterogeneity in preferences for the electric and fuel cell car. When annual mileage increases, the preference for electric and fuel cell cars decreases substantially, whilst the willingness to pay for driving range increases substantially. Other variables such as using the car for holidays abroad and the daily commute also appear to be relevant for car choice.     

Consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles: A discrete choice analysis

This paper analyzes the potential demand for privately used alternative fuel vehicles using German stated preference discrete choice data. By applying a mixed logit model, we find that the most sensitive group for the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles embraces younger, well-educated, and environmentally aware car buyers, who have the possibility to plug-in their car at home, and undertake numerous urban trips. Moreover, many households are willing to pay considerable amounts for greater fuel economy and emission reduction, improved driving range and charging infrastructure, as well as for enjoying vehicle tax exemptions and free parking or bus lane access. The scenario results suggest that conventional vehicles will maintain their dominance in the market. Finally, an increase in the battery electric vehicles’ range to a level comparable with all other vehicles has the same impact as a multiple measures policy intervention package.     

The impact of fuel availability on demand for alternative-fuel vehicles

We study the impact of fuel availability on demand for alternative-fuel vehicles, using data from a survey of potential car buyers in Germany. The survey was conducted as a computer-assisted personal interview and included a choice experiment involving cars with various fuel types. Applying a standard logit model, we show that alternative fuel availability influences choices positively, but its marginal utility diminishes with supply. Furthermore, we derive consumers’ marginal willingness-to-pay for an expanded service station network. The results suggest that a failure to expand the availability of alternative fuel stations represents a significant barrier to the widespread adoption of alternative-fuel vehicles.     

Life cycle ownership cost and environmental externality of alternative fuel options for transit buses

This paper assesses alternative fuel options for transit buses. We consider the following options for a 40-foot and a 60-foot transit bus: a conventional bus powered by either diesel or a biodiesel blend (B20 or B100), a diesel hybrid-electric bus, a sparking-ignition bus powered by Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), and a battery electric bus (BEB) (rapid or slow charging). We estimate life cycle ownership costs (for buses and infrastructure) and environmental externalities caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs) and criteria air pollutants (CAPs) emitted from the life cycle of bus operations. We find that all alternative fuel options lead to higher life cycle ownership and external costs than conventional diesel. When external funding is available to pay for 80% of vehicle purchase expenditures (which is usually the case for U.S. transit agencies), BEBs yield large reductions (17–23%) in terms of ownership and external costs compared to diesel. Furthermore, BEBs’ advantages are robust to changes in operation and economic assumptions when external funding is available. BEBs are able to reduce CAP emissions significantly in Pittsburgh’s hotspot areas, where existing bus fleets contribute to 1% of particulate matter emissions from mobile sources. We recognize that there are still practical barriers for BEBs, e.g. range limits, land to build the charging infrastructure, and coordination with utilities. However, favorable trends such as better battery performance and economics, cleaner electricity grid, improved technology maturity, and accumulated operation experience may favor use of BEBs where feasible.     

Fuel economy,cost, and greenhouse gas results for alternative fuel vehicles in 2011

This paper presents in-service data collected from over 300 alternative fuel vehicles and over 80 fueling stations to help fleets determine what types of applications and alternative fuels may help them reduce their environmental impacts and fuel costs. The data were compiled in 2011 by over 30 organizations in New York State using a wide variety of commercial vehicle types and technologies. Fuel economy, incremental vehicle purchase cost, fueling station purchase cost, greenhouse gas reductions, and fuel cost savings data clarifies the performance of alternative fuel vehicles and fuel stations. Data were collected from a range of vehicle types, including school buses, delivery trucks, utility vans, street sweepers, snow plows, street pavers, bucket trucks, paratransit vans, and sedans. CNG, hybrid, LPG, and electric vehicles were tracked.     

Locating refuelling stations for alternative fuel vehicles: a review on models and applications

The recent concerns on environmental issues have expedited the technological development of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), but the deployment of AFVs still remains at the initial stage mainly because of the lack of refuelling facilities. Recognising this, researchers have conducted various studies, proposing a variety of approaches to strategically locating refuelling stations. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the approaches, focusing more on applications than computational issues. The review identifies two main elements of the approaches: location modelling and refuelling demand estimation. Examining how the elements were handled in refuelling location studies, this paper suggests that future refuelling location models should properly reflect the intricate and various perspectives of three major AFV stakeholders: drivers, government agencies and refuelling service providers. This study is expected to help researchers efficiently set up their refuelling location problems and identify critical factors for seeking the solutions.     

Market introduction strategies for alternative powertrains in long-range passenger cars under competition

Alternative powertrains are considered as a promising option to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions from passenger cars. One major prerequisite is their successful market introduction. In this paper, we present a system dynamics model that allows for the evaluation of strategies for the market introduction of alternative powertrain technologies in long-range passenger cars (⩾400 km) under competition. The model considers two competing manufacturers, one first-mover and one follower, each introducing plug-in hybrids and fuel cell electric vehicles according to exogenously defined strategies, which comprise timing, pricing, and technology parameters. The manufacturers can learn from each other due to technology spillover, leading to cost reductions of the powertrains. We use an exemplary dataset for the German car market to study the manufacturers’ influence on the market success of alternative powertrains as well as the underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that in general more competition leads to higher market shares of alternatively powered vehicles and thus allows for a higher reduction of emissions. However, this might cause decreasing profits for both manufacturers, especially if the follower pursues an aggressive pricing strategy when entering the market to gain market shares from its competitor. Also, technology spillover has a positive effect on the market penetration. This particularly holds true for a low level of technology experience where high cost reductions can be achieved and for fuel cell electric vehicles where the costs of the powertrain are much higher compared to plug-in hybrids.     

Customizing driving cycles to support vehicle purchase and use decisions: Fuel economy estimation for alternative fuel vehicle users

Wider deployment of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can help with increasing energy security and transitioning to clean vehicles. Ideally, adopters of AFVs are able to maintain the same level of mobility as users of conventional vehicles while reducing energy use and emissions. Greater knowledge of AFV benefits can support consumers’ vehicle purchase and use choices. The Environmental Protection Agency’s fuel economy ratings are a key source of potential benefits of using AFVs. However, the ratings are based on pre-designed and fixed driving cycles applied in laboratory conditions, neglecting the attributes of drivers and vehicle types. While the EPA ratings using pre-designed and fixed driving cycles may be unbiased they are not necessarily precise, owning to large variations in real-life driving. Thus, to better predict fuel economy for individual consumers targeting specific types of vehicles, it is important to find driving cycles that can better represent consumers’ real-world driving practices instead of using pre-designed standard driving cycles. This paper presents a methodology for customizing driving cycles to provide convincing fuel economy predictions that are based on drivers’ characteristics and contemporary real-world driving, along with validation efforts. The methodology takes into account current micro-driving practices in terms of maintaining speed, acceleration, braking, idling, etc., on trips. Specifically, using a large-scale driving data collected by in-vehicle Global Positioning System as part of a travel survey, a micro-trips (building block) library for California drivers is created using 54 million seconds of vehicle trajectories on more than 60,000 trips, made by 3000 drivers. To generate customized driving cycles, a new tool, known as Case Based System for Driving Cycle Design, is developed. These customized cycles can predict fuel economy more precisely for conventional vehicles vis-à-vis AFVs. This is based on a consumer’s similarity in terms of their own and geographical characteristics, with a sample of micro-trips from the case library. The AFV driving cycles, created from real-world driving data, show significant differences from conventional driving cycles currently in use. This further highlights the need to enhance current fuel economy estimations by using customized driving cycles, helping consumers make more informed vehicle purchase and use decisions.     

The role of alternative fuel vehicles: Using behavioral and sensor data to model hierarchies in travel

Greater adoption and use of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can be environmentally beneficial and reduce dependence on gasoline. The use of AFVs vis-à-vis conventional gasoline vehicles is not well understood, especially when it comes to travel choices and short-term driving decisions. Using data that contains a sufficiently large number of early AFV adopters (who have overcome obstacles to adoption), this study explores differences in use of AFVs and conventional gasoline vehicles (and hybrid vehicles). The study analyzes large-scale behavioral data integrated with sensor data from global positioning system devices, representing advances in large-scale data analytics. Specifically, it makes sense of data containing 54,043,889 s of speed observations, and 65,652 trips made by 2908 drivers in 5 regions of California. The study answers important research questions about AFV use patterns (e.g., trip frequency and daily vehicle miles traveled) and driving practices. Driving volatility, as one measure of driving practice, is used as a key metric in this study to capture acceleration, and vehicular jerk decisions that exceed certain thresholds during a trip. The results show that AFVs cannot be viewed as monolithic; there are important differences within AFV use, i.e., between plug-in hybrids, battery electric, or compressed natural gas vehicles. Multi-level models are particularly appropriate for analysis, given that the data are nested, i.e., multiple trips are made by different drivers who reside in various regions. Using such models, the study also found that driving volatility varies significantly between trips, driver groups, and regions in California. Some alternative fuel vehicles are associated with calmer driving compared with conventional vehicles. The implications of the results for safety, informed consumer choices and large-scale data analytics are discussed.     

Introducing alternative fuel vehicles in Hong Kong: views from the public light bus industry

Hong Kong was the first place in the world to implement a trial scheme to convert all public light buses (PLBs) on the road from diesel to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The scheme, however, did not receive much support from PLB operators. At present, there is a rich literature on households’ demand for AFVs (especially in the USA). However, there have not been many studies about the demand for commercial AFVs in the business and public transport sectors. Since light buses running on alternative fuels are not widely available in the Hong Kong market, a stated preference (SP) survey was conducted to solicit the preferences of PLB operators on eight commercial vehicle attributes and seven forms of government support. The SP data are analyzed by multinomial logit (MNL) models. Detailed analyses on market segmentation and price elasticities follow. The results are of theoretical and practical significance.     

Fuel cycle emissions and life cycle costs of alternative fuel vehicle policy options for the City of Houston municipal fleet

Municipal fleet vehicle purchase decisions provide a direct opportunity for cities to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and air pollutants. However, cities typically lack comprehensive data on total life cycle impacts of various conventional and alternative fueled vehicles (AFV) considered for fleet purchase. The City of Houston, Texas, has been a leader in incorporating hybrid electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and battery electric (BEV) vehicles into its fleet, but has yet to adopt any natural gas-powered light-duty vehicles. The City is considering additional AFV purchases but lacks systematic analysis of emissions and costs. Using City of Houston data, we calculate total fuel cycle GHG and air pollutant emissions of additional conventional gasoline vehicles, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs, and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles to the City's fleet. Analyses are conducted with the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model. Levelized cost per kilometer is calculated for each vehicle option, incorporating initial purchase price minus residual value, plus fuel and maintenance costs. Results show that HEVs can achieve 36% lower GHG emissions with a levelized cost nearly equal to a conventional sedan. BEVs and PHEVs provide further emissions reductions, but at levelized costs 32% and 50% higher than HEVs, respectively. CNG sedans and trucks provide 11% emissions reductions, but at 25% and 63% higher levelized costs, respectively. While the results presented here are specific to conditions and vehicle options currently faced by one city, the methods deployed here are broadly applicable to informing fleet purchase decisions.     

我国西部交通运输开发建设对策

西部大开发的首要问题是加强地区交通运输基础设施建设,目前西部交通运输存在如基础设施布局、交通技术结构、交通区域结构等方面的问题。文章通过对现状、资金、环境、人才因素的考虑,提出了以“强化技术改造,提高运输能力,拓展内外通,适应发展需要”为基本思路的一系列西部交通开发建设对策。     

Consumer preferences for electric vehicles in lower tier cities of China: Evidences from south Jiangsu region

China is the world biggest market of electric vehicles (EVs) in terms of production and sales. Existing studies on consumer preferences for EVs in China have generally focused on first-tier cities, while little attention has been paid to the lower tier cities. This exploratory study investigates consumer preferences for EVs in lower tier cities of China, by collecting stated preference (SP) data in two second-tier cities and three third-tier cities in the south Jiangsu region of China. The discrete choice modeling analysis shows that Chinese consumers in lower-tier cities are generally sensitive to monetary attributes, charging service and driving range of EVs. They also perceive Chinese vehicle brands to be disadvantaged compared with European brands. When comparing the differences in second-tier versus third-tier cities, we find that consumers in third-tier cities are more sensitive to purchase price, subsidy of purchase, and coverage of charging stations than their second-tier counterparts. This study also highlights the role of different psychological effects, such as symbols of car ownership, normative-face influence, and risk aversion, in shaping consumer preferences for EVs in lower-tier cities of China. Our results provide important implications for contextualizing government policies and marketing strategies in line with the different sizes and characteristics of the cities in China.     

西部二级公路水泥稳定碎石基层施工质量控制方法

文章针对西部地区公路水泥稳定碎石施工质量控制问题,结合广西富川麦岭二级公路施工实践,探讨西部地区二级公路水泥稳定碎石基层施工质量控制方法。