倒运海水道近年河床演变分析

基于两套水深地形测图,从河势、冲淤分布图、冲淤量方面对倒运海水道的河床演变进行了分析。2015年2月至2017年6月,水道河势较为稳定,深槽水深基本在4m以上,河床冲淤量与冲淤面积总体平衡,河床演变主要为水砂动力条件下的自然演变。结论可供航道整治与港口码头建设参考。     

长江口南支河床近期冲淤演变机制*

利用1998年以来多期水下地形资料和两次水文测验资料,分析了长江口南支河床近期的冲淤变化,讨论了其演变的过程、特点和机制.结果表明,近10年,南支河床在总体保持稳定的同时,呈现出以下主要变化特点:1)白茆沙北水道进口段淤积,南水道冲刷发展;2)七丫口以下的南支主槽北冲南淤;3)下扁担沙南侧上冲下淤;4)新浏河沙包、新浏河沙和中央沙"三沙"沙头冲刷后退;5)河槽容积扩大等.上述演变特点具有内在紧密的联系,突出表现为河床冲淤自上而下的传递过程.北支泥沙倒灌是南支河床近期冲淤演变的主要驱动因子之一,而南支落潮水流优势和粉砂质河床边界条件,促使了主槽河床冲淤的自上而下传递.河槽容积的扩大则是河槽冲淤对流域来沙减小的响应结果.由于南支近期冲淤演变的内、外因子仍将存在,未来一段时间内,南支仍将延续近期的演变趋势.     

瓯江河口及温州浅滩冲淤演变分析

基于瓯江河口和温州浅滩多年实测水文泥沙及地形水深资料,研究其冲淤演变特征。结果表明:瓯江流域径流量呈现年际、洪枯流量差别大的特点,此特性对瓯江河床冲淤变化起着至关重要的作用;瓯江口外及温州浅滩区域由于风浪作用引起泥沙再悬浮,导致其含沙量增大;瓯江河口地形表现为"洪冲枯淤"的特点,尽管河床纵、横向冲淤变化频繁,但河床冲淤幅度和河道容积在年间与年内变化不大,相对稳定;而温州浅滩则处于不断淤涨状态。特别是近期的人工围垦工程的建设进一步加大了其淤积速度,浅滩内普遍发生淤积,其中浅滩南端、北段及邻近灵霓大堤附近淤积最甚。同时,温州浅滩靠南口水道部分由于灵霓北堤建设及完成后封堵了其北侧上浅滩的潮量,从而加大了大、小霓屿岛间进入浅滩的潮量,使得其在1999—2010年间处于冲刷的状态。     

长江下游牧鹅洲水道河床演变特征及航道条件分析

随着三峡水库持续运行,下游河段造床规律较以往有所变化,河床进行冲淤调整。基于牧鹅洲洲水道三峡蓄水后2003—2016年原型观测资料,分析蓄水后该水道河床的冲淤变化情况。结果表明,该水道呈中高滩冲刷、低滩淤积、河槽有冲有淤的态势,这可能给本水道自身较好的航道边界条件带来不利影响,同时极可能影响下游湖广水道进流条件。在此基础上,对本水道航道条件变化趋势进行预测,认为目前比较优良的航道条件在自然作用下可能向不利方向发展,为本水道航道治理思路的形成和工程设计提供参考。     

长江老海坝段近期河道演变及其影响因素分析

近年来受三峡蓄水及河道整治工程影响,长江下游部分河道边界及水沙条件发生了显著变化,特别是老海坝河段年内冲淤演变剧烈,对河道防洪、航运及岸线利用产生影响。本文采用近15年的地形实测资料,探讨老海坝险工段河床演变特征,并对其影响因素开展研究。结果表明：1)老海坝河段平面变化较小,南岸附近-10、-30 m等深线基本稳定,-50 m深槽范围有所扩大;2)河道横断面形态横向变化小,纵向变化大,呈现向窄深方向发展的趋势;3)老海坝抛石护岸工程的实施,改变不同等深线区间内河床的冲淤变化幅度,加剧了深槽冲淤幅度,其中岸坡附近冲淤变化相对较小,深槽冲淤幅度较大,九龙港—十一圩港段冲淤演变最为剧烈;4)老海坝段-30 m以下深槽冲淤量与上游大通站造床流量呈负相关,同时受河道地质边界条件影响,在弯道水流离心力作用下,河床仍将长期处于被冲刷状态。研究成果可为河势急剧变化区的河道演变及岸坡防护提供参考依据。     

湘江长沙综合枢纽工程坝区河段河床变形预报试验研究

文章基于全沙动床物理模型,对湘江长沙综合枢纽坝区河段河床变形情况进行模型试验研究。在模型河床变形验证相似的基础上,对枢纽正常运行初期中水中沙典型年以及丰水丰沙典型年坝区河床变形进行预报。研究表明枢纽建成正常运行后,中水年与丰水年坝区河段河床冲淤变化规律相似,但变化幅度要小。坝上河床冲淤相间,总体稍有淤积;坝下近坝段冲刷深度较大,冲刷的泥沙主要在下游附近河床淤积,随着枢纽运行时间的延长,该段河床的淤沙逐渐向下游输移。     

赣江尾闾河段洲头控导工程的整治效果分析

通过分析裘家洲、扬子洲和焦矶头近年的演变趋势,阐明赣江尾闾分汊河段实施洲头控导工程的必要性,并建立平面二维的水流泥沙数学模型。对比分析了工程实施前后该河段的流场、岸线演变、河床冲淤和分流比变化情况。得出洲头控导工程能有效的导顺水流,保护岸线,减缓河床冲淤和稳定分流比。     

崖门出海航道整治效果分析

从航道平面变化、横向变化、纵向变化和冲淤变化4个方面,分析崖门出海航道整治工程完工后一年的河床演变情况,进而对其整治效果进行分析评价。     

三峡工程运用后水沙变化对世业洲汊道河床演变的影响*

长江南京以下河段以分汊河型为主，受径流和潮汐的共同作用，水沙运动及河床冲淤复杂。以南京以下12.5 m深水航道重点碍航浅滩之一的仪征水道为例，在已有研究成果的基础上，根据近期实测水文泥沙和地形资料，分析三峡水库蓄水前后仪征水道演变特性，探讨三峡枢纽运行后水沙变化对河床冲淤的影响。结果表明：三峡水库蓄水后，仪征水道河床冲淤与蓄水前有所不同。蓄水前世业洲左汊冲刷、右汊微淤，蓄水后左右汊均表现为冲刷下切；蓄水前大洪水对水道滩槽格局影响较大，蓄水后受水库调蓄影响，洪峰流量减小，水沙对滩槽格局的影响有所减弱。     

右江那吉鱼梁枢纽两坝间河性及河床演变趋势分析

右江为丘陵山区河流.河道平面、剖面形态和径流过程具有山区河流特征,而水流流速与水面比降小具有平原河流特性;自然条件下受沿程河床节点控制,河床冲淤变化被限制在相邻两节点河段之间;那吉、鱼梁航运枢纽建成后,由于汛期两枢纽畅泄,两坝间河段将基本遵循自然条件下河床演变规律.     

铜鼓航道冲淤变化分析

概述了铜鼓航道地理位置及水流泥沙条件。根据2008—2009年铜鼓航道5次水下地形测量资料,结合铜鼓海区水文泥沙环境,从航道沿程水深变化、航道冲淤分布、航道回淤量和断面形态变化4个方面,分析了航道的时空冲淤分布特点,并计算了铜鼓航道的年回淤量和平均年淤积强度。得到如下结论:铜鼓航道年平均回淤量为573万m3,平均年淤强为0.82 m,并且回淤呈现"洪季多淤、枯季少淤"和"主槽回淤较多、边坡回淤较少"的特点。     

Types of cluster adaptation to climate change. Lessons from the port and logistics sector of Northwest Germany

In this article, we argue that sectoral adaptation efforts to climate change, e.g. of the ports sector, are also struggles to reshape economic space according to sectoral needs. Addressing globalisation, the effects on economic spatial hierarchies among regions and the active promotion of regionalisation are seen as important. Applied to the port industry, this allows approaching the fierce competition among European north range ports from an action- and power-oriented perspective. Climate adaptation of ports is predominantly referred to as technical responses to extreme events (e.g. coastal protection). A differentiated conceptualisation (based on still ongoing research), however, also addresses impacts on specific elements of the transport chain, and effects on the spatial function of a port (e.g. the changing competitiveness within the European port system). Hence, the ability of a specific port to adapt will also encompass the management of regional target conflicts, and of multi-level relations. Thus, climate adaptation becomes part of positional struggles in spatial hierarchies among regions and of conflicts about political priorities within them. At the same time, the limits of exclusively regional approaches in addressing sustainability issues without higher level support become evident. The article gives an overview of the literature on climate adaptation and its application to ports and provides a preliminary typology of forms of sectoral adaptation to climate change.     

Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Beach Use: A Case Study of East Anglia,UK

As tourists are sensitive to weather conditions and changes to the environments they visit, it is likely that climate change will affect coastal recreation in the future. To understand these impacts, it is first important to quantify how visitor numbers are associated with beach characteristics and weather patterns. Using the East Anglian coastline, UK, as a case study, information on the spatial distribution of visitors recorded from aircraft flights is combined with beach characteristic data in a Geographical Information System. In addition, surveys are undertaken at two beaches to assess temporal variations in visitation. The study finds a diverse range of characteristics are associated with visitor numbers. These findings are evaluated alongside the anticipated effects of climate change and management policies. Although it is predicted that warmer weather will increase visitor numbers overall, sea-level rise may reduce numbers at wide sandy beaches, which are currently most preferred by tourists.     

Shipping and the Transfer of Technology†

This paper discusses and assesses the complex process of change that has occurred in East Europe over thc last five years, and attempts to relate these changes to the shipping sector. Conventional mathematical methods are discussed as inappropriate in analysing economic, social and political developments and the technique of conceptual modelling is used, borrowed from other disciplines including those of environmental appraisal and computer sciences. The main linkages are discussed with particular reference to the Polish shipping sector, with specific analysis of the legal, managerial, spatial, economic, political, social and organizational contexts. The dominant themes of change are drawn out in an attempt to predict the impact on the Polish shipping industry in general and the three main State companies–Polish Ocean Lines (Liner Shipping); Polish Steamship Company (Bulk/Tramp) and Polish Baltic Ferries– that dominate the market.     

East European shipping and economic change: a conceptual model

This paper discusses and assesses the complex process of change that has occurred in East Europe over thc last five years, and attempts to relate these changes to the shipping sector. Conventional mathematical methods are discussed as inappropriate in analysing economic, social and political developments and the technique of conceptual modelling is used, borrowed from other disciplines including those of environmental appraisal and computer sciences. The main linkages are discussed with particular reference to the Polish shipping sector, with specific analysis of the legal, managerial, spatial, economic, political, social and organizational contexts. The dominant themes of change are drawn out in an attempt to predict the impact on the Polish shipping industry in general and the three main State companies-Polish Ocean Lines (Liner Shipping); Polish Steamship Company (Bulk/Tramp) and Polish Baltic Ferries- that dominate the market.     

LBS空间数据内容与管理方法

LBS空间数据的管理和数据库建立是LBS定位服务系统的核心。本文在论述了LBS系统各个部分的构成的基础上,探讨了LBS空间数据库管理的具体内容,设计了基于Oracle Spatial对象关系型数据库的LBS空间数据存储与管理的方法,设计和开发了面向对象的空间数据引擎,研究了LBS数据通过空间数据引擎上传到Oracle Spatial的技术。     

Long-term sea surface temperature baselines—time series, spatial covariation and implications for biological processes

Coastal areas such as estuaries, bays and fjords usually have hydrographic characteristics (e.g., temperature, salinity) which differ from those at larger spatial scales and in offshore areas. The differences can arise if the areas are subject to different climatic forcing or if they are relatively isolated from each other due to topographic and ocean circulation features which inhibit advective inputs of water mass properties. Local differences in hydrographic conditions can therefore potentially limit the applicability of existing long time series of coastally monitored temperatures for addressing questions at large spatial scales, such as the response of species distributions and phenologies to climate change. In this study we investigate the spatial synchrony of long-term sea surface temperatures in the North Sea–Baltic Sea region as measured daily at four coastal sites (Marsdiep, Netherlands; Torungen, Norway; Skagens Reef, Denmark; and Christiansø, Denmark) and in several large offshore areas. All time series, including two series reconstructed and intercalibrated for this study (Skagens Reef and Christiansø, Denmark), began during 1861–1880 and continue until at least 2001. Temperatures at coastal sites co-varied strongly with each other and with opportunistically measured offshore temperatures despite separation distances between measuring locations of 20–1200 km. This covariance is probably due to the influence of large-scale atmospheric processes on regional temperatures and is consistent with the known correlation radius of atmospheric fluctuations (ca. 1000 km). Differences (e. g, long-term trends, amplitude of seasonal variations) between coastal temperatures and those measured in adjacent offshore areas varied nonrandomly over time and were often significantly autocorrelated up to 2 years. These differences suggest that spatial variations in physical oceanographic phenomena and sampling heterogeneities associated with opportunistic sampling could affect perceptions of biological responses to temperature fluctuations. The documentation that the coastally measured temperatures co-vary with those measured opportunistically in offshore areas suggests that the coastal data, which have been measured daily using standardized methods and instruments, contain much of the variability seen at larger spatial scales. We conclude that both types of time series can facilitate assessments of how species and ecosystems have responded to past temperature changes and how they may react to future temperature changes.     

Alternative approaches to spatial modelling

In discussion of the modelling methods that can be used to assess the impacts of transport change on regional and local economies, “land-use/transport interaction (LUTI) models” are often referred to as if all such models were examples of a single, homogeneous commodity. The first and major purpose of this paper is to correct this impression by comparing and contrasting some key features of the main models or modelling packages in the LUTI tradition, particularly those which are generally recognized as constituting the current “state-of-the-art”, or at least the “state of practice”. One particular point within the comparison will be the differing use which is made (or not made) of spatial input-output models in the different approaches.The second purpose of the paper is (more briefly) to compare LUTI modelling with alternative approaches and in particular with spatial computable general equilibrium (SGCE) modelling. One of the common features to emerge from the preceding comparison is that LUTI modelling has been mainly concerned with predicting the location of fixed totals of jobs and of households under different transport scenarios. This is a general feature, even though in some cases these totals are directly fixed by the user whilst in other cases they are the results of long chains of calculations that are insensitive to transport scenarios; in a few cases, the total levels of economic activity are variable according to accessibility-related variables. In contrast, the use of SCGE modelling in testing the impact of transport proposals is very much concerned with the consequences for the total size of the economy in question, usually with a less detailed concern for the spatial distribution of impacts. This comparison leads to a discussion of whether LUTI modelling and SCGE modelling are mutually exclusive or whether some form of synthesis or integration between the two may be theoretically appropriate and/or practically desirable. The requirements of project appraisal - i.e., the assessment of benefits - are also considered.     

基于随机场理论的吹填土土性参数空间变异性

根据围海造陆工程吹填场地大量勘察资料,通过采用土层剖面随机场理论与曲线极限法相关距离计算方法,考虑相关距离与土层厚度对土性参数空间变异性的影响,把土性参数的点变异性与空间变异性联系起来,对吹填淤泥与原状淤泥组成的双层软土土性参数的变异性进行了分析。结果表明:吹填淤泥与原状淤泥相关距离的区间估计分别为0.45～0.53 m、0.65～0.71 m,为勘察工作钻孔取样竖向间距选取提供参考;随机场理论计算出的土性参数的空间变异系数比点变异系数小得多,在理论上更合理;吹填淤泥土性参数的点变异性、空间变异性均比原状淤泥大,空间变异性对岩土工程可靠性设计土性参数准确选取的影响更为显著,实际工程中更应考虑土性参数的空间变异性。     

长江航道整治建筑物服役状态时空分析与预测*

为了能够优化航道基础设施有限的维护经费分配,为整治建筑物维修预算的制定提供科学依据,对2017—2021年长江干线航道整治建筑物的技术状况分类进行全面统计,分别通过求期望和二次回归的方式对各管辖区域未来一年需要维修的建筑物数量进行预测。得到干线航道整治建筑物的服役状态时空分布特点,并提出以辖区为单元的建筑物未来服役状态预测方法。结果表明：整治建筑物技术状况类别占比的时间分布相对比较稳定,逐年变化不大,而空间分布受不同河段特定环境影响较大;在长江上游河段的二和三类占比突出,中、下游河段一类占比突出;求期望法的预测精度受时序样本的波动程度影响较大,而二次回归法受影响相对较小。