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D. R. Glen 《Maritime Policy and Management》2013,40(2):201-207
Thie paper re-examines the link between shipping investment and investment incentives, first explored in this journal by Marlow, and subsequently developed by mcWilliams et al. in the July–September issue. Examination of the ststistical properties of the data reveals that some of McWilliams' results may be flawed. A modified version of the Marlow model is estimated. checking for statistical and economic consistency, using cointegration, checking for statistical and economic consistency, using cointegration techniques. The estimated model resolves marlow's original challenge, but does not appear to be as robust as could be wished. 相似文献
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This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market. 相似文献
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P. Rogers 《Maritime Policy and Management》1997,24(4):351-364
This paper examines the statistical properties of 19 dry cargo rate series, which are used in the construction of index numbers measuring dry cargo market conditions for Capesize vessels. It is shown that the series are extremely highly correlated. They are also non-stationary. The presence of cointegration is established. It is argued that this implies that rebasing the index numbers using different weights makes little difference to the information derived from the index itself, because of the high correlation between the series and the presence of cointegration. Changing the weighting structure does not alter the information derived from the index in any material way because of these properties. 相似文献
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Simme Veldman Lorena Garcia-Alonso José Ángel Vallejo-Pinto 《Maritime Policy and Management》2013,40(5):509-522
For the economic and financial evaluation of port investment projects, it is important to know the demand function of a port's services. The objective of this study is to establish such a demand choice function for the Spanish container port services. The function is derived from the coefficients of a port choice model, for which a multinomial logit model is used and of which the coefficients are estimated with regression analysis. The variables tested concern inland transport cost, ocean transport costs and broad proxy variables for quality of service. Information on container import and export flows for 2007 is obtained from the Spanish Treasury Department. The linear regression analysis is based on differences of utilities of alternative routings of containerised cargoes compared to those routed via the port of Valencia. The obtained results are satisfactory in terms of model fit. The estimated coefficients can be used to assess the impact of changes in costs of container flows routed via a port on a port's market share. A demand choice function for the port can be derived by systematically doing so. An example is presented for the port of Valencia. 相似文献
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This article reports the results of the travel cost model using the standard and the truncated count data models to estimate the economic value of the Similan Islands, Thailand, from SCUBA diving. The estimated consumer surplus per visit to the Similan Islands using the truncated negative binomial model was US$3,233 and the economic value of the Similan Islands from SCUBA diving was estimated to be up to US$54.96 m. This study shows that, even without non-use values, coral reefs of the Similan Islands, if properly managed and maintained, will continue to have significant value to both Thai and overseas SCUBA divers, as one of the natural treasures of the world. 相似文献
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Land use/transport models and economic assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Marcial Echenique 《Research in Transportation Economics》2011,31(1):45-54
This paper discusses the economic assessment of policies using land use/transport models. It argues that conventional forms of assessment focussing only on transport changes can underestimate the economic benefits of a policy. The paper argues that the benefits need to be measured by the changes of prices at the end of a trip and not just by the changes in travel costs. Models that do not estimate the changes of prices at the end of a trip cannot properly assess the impact of a policy.The model used in this paper is based on the MEPLAN software and estimates the location of households and employment and the interaction between them. It also estimates the cost of living for households and the production costs for employment. With these costs, it is possible to calculate the wider economic benefits beyond transport.The paper illustrates the assessment of policies for the Cambridge sub-region involving investment in public transport, orbital highway and congestion charging policies. The results forecast by the model are assessed in terms of the conventional cost-benefit using traveller’s surplus as benefits and compared with a wider assessment measure of compensation variation. It demonstrates that the last measure encompasses the wider benefits associated with transport policies which are not taken into account in conventional cost-benefit analysis. 相似文献
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介绍了在复杂因素情况下运用层次分析法进行港口工程总体方案综合比选的方法和过程.通过港口工程因素识别、构建层次模型、构造判断矩阵、因素权重分配、一致性检验、分值计算及综合评定等步骤,将人为的主观性依据用数量形式表达出来并进行量化综合比较,从而避免了传统方案比选采用定性判断的不足. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThis paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision. 相似文献
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As the dry bulk shipping market seems to have been stuck in a trough period for a long time, investors need to pay more attention to their investment strategies to survive during this period. This study aimed to find a suitable model to assess dry bulk ship investment decisions in the tough and peak periods based on real options theories. Two options, involving an abandonment option and a deferrable option, were used to define investors’ responses to the uncertainty in investment processes such as stopping or selling vessels. The option valuation was solved by using a binomial valuation model, due to data limitations. In accordance with shipping cycle theories, different volatility parameters for the tough and peak periods were calculated using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The application of the real options model to a case study involving secondhand ship trading indicated its viability. According to the results of the case study, the new model has advantages over the traditional net present value (NPV) method in uncertain investment environments. Thus, the results demonstrate that the real options model is a more suitable method for use in the current dry bulk shipping market. 相似文献
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Roger Vickerman 《Research in Transportation Economics》2008,23(1):107-115
This paper describes the development of approaches to analysing the links between investment in transit and economic development. It indicates the need to bring together disparate approaches from urban economics and transportation economics to get a full understanding and uses recent results on agglomeration economies to present a more rigorous model of the wider economic benefits of transit investment. Although the evidence increasingly points towards identifiable benefits over and above those captured in conventional transport cost-benefit analysis, the chapter counsels against the assumption of simple rules. 相似文献
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This study analyzes stated willingness to pay (WTP) for traffic safety, the use of traffic safety equipments, and the consistency between the two. Using data from a Swedish contingent valuation study we find that the estimated value of a statistical life (VSL) based on the respondents' rear-seatbelt usage is similar to the estimate found using the respondents' stated WTP. However, when estimating VSL based on the respondents' use of bicycle helmets we find a significantly higher VSL; the VSL from bicycle-helmet usage is 7 times higher than the estimate based on seatbelt usage. Moreover, we do not find any strong relationship between risk perception and usage, or individual stated WTP and usage. Hence, the main conclusion, based on our analysis, is that stated and observed WTP are not consistent. 相似文献
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This study investigates the return lead–lag and volatility transmission between dry bulk shipping and container shipping freight markets over the period before, during and after the 2008 financial tsunami. Both cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test are applied to explore the lead–lag relationship between the Baltic dry index (BDI) and the China containerized freight index (CCFI). Besides, in the study we employed GARCH–BEKK model, which allows for transmission in freight volatility. On the whole, the empirical results show that the BDI reflects the economic climate earlier than the CCFI during the financial tsunami, whereas the CCFI leads the BDI after the financial tsunami. The price formation hypothesis could well explain the relationship. Moreover, volatility spillovers are found in most subperiods. The dynamics of the conditional volatilities differ, but causality links in the variance are found to be strong and bidirectional in normal periods, and unidirectional during the financial tsunami. Therefore, the occurrence of the financial tsunami could be regarded as an interference factor. 相似文献
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摘要:为满足海关对港口进出1:2货物的监管要求,设计一种用于港1:2作业监管场所进出口货物的电子卡口系统。介绍该项目设计方案和流程实现。在秦皇岛港建设两个电子卡口系统,实现了对通过卡口通道的进出车辆24小时视频监控。项目取得良好的社会效益和经济效益。 相似文献
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This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity. This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%. 相似文献