Modelling port choice in an uncertain environment

Port choice is an important issue to be investigated to ensure the effective integration of container supply chains and the sustainable development of regional economy. The selection of appropriate ports to facilitate shipping activities and international trade is crucial for many stakeholders, including shipping lines, port administrators, cargo shippers and national governments. The task is essentially a process of multiple criterion decision-making (MCDM) under uncertainty, requiring analysts to derive rational decisions from uncertain and incomplete data related to different quantitative and qualitative determinants. This paper aims at proposing a new conceptual port choice method by explaining the role fuzzy logic in evidential reasoning in a complementary way, in which various forms of raw data (either objective or subjective) collected to evaluate port performance can first be converted into and presented as fuzzy grades defined using linguistics terms with degrees of belief (DoBs) and second be combined using evidential reasoning to produce a port choice preference score. The method is applied to analyse the selection of major Northeast Asian (NEA) container ports from a shipping line’s perspective. The outcome, a port choice preference score, is calculated using evidential reasoning to directly synthesize the true estimation of the port with respect to each criterion and therefore, unlike a relative ranking index, keeps the ‘goodness’ of port evaluation, capable of benchmarking a specific port’s performance and monitoring the increase of its competitiveness in a longitude study with respect to an individual criterion or all the criteria as a whole.     

基于熵权和AHP的港口工程选址模糊优选决策模型

针对层次分析法(AHP)中决策者的主观判断、偏好及对问题的理解等因素可能对港口选址产生影响,引入基于熵权和模糊层次分析法,构建了基于熵权的港口选址模糊层次分析决策模型,并通过实例验证了该模型的适用性,为决策者提供了直观、可靠的依据.     

Transshipment hub port selection for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the factors affecting transshipment (T/S) hub port selection by a feeder port and helps shipping carriers make a decision about T/S hub port selection in a dual hub-port system. By employing established evaluation factors, a case study is conducted to weigh the priority of factors and to select an alternative T/S hub port, such as between the Shanghai and Ningbo ports from the Nanjing feeder port in the Yangtze River delta (YRD). A combined multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework utilizing the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) method is employed to both reduce the number of pairwise comparisons by AHP and to obtain experts’ knowledge in the decision-making process. The result indicates that the cost, availability of hub port’s space allocation, and the connectivity between feeder port and hub port are crucial factors for T/S hub port selection by shipping carriers. In the case study, Shanghai is selected as the T/S hub port from the Nanjing feeder port. Nevertheless, Ningbo port has the advantage of cost, and if the relationship with feeder port can be improved, Ningbo port would be preferred over Shanghai as a T/S hub port for shipping carriers in a dual hub-port system.     

Analytical modelling of shipping business processes based on MCDM methods

The need for analytical solutions towards various managerial processes in shipping business has been clearly seen in maritime society. To remedy this gap, the execution of relevant processes can be supported via multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. This article applied an Integrated Decision Aid (IDEA) to overcome the model selection dilemma for process improvement in shipping business. The illustrative application of the IDEA makes invaluable contributions for the ongoing efforts of relevant executives on adopting modern management style in shipping business. Furthermore, the outcomes of this study encourage the maritime practitioners towards analytical modelling of managerial processes in shipping business cycle.     

基于模糊AHP综合评价方法的航运公司综合实力评价

提出了—种基于模糊AHP的综合评价方法,从客户的角度对航运公司的综合实力进行了综合评价、排序。经过分析计算,结论基本合理,且本方法简单实用。不但为企业选择优良的航运企业提供了理论依据,同时也为航运公司在航运市场中的位置定位提供了帮助,为其弥补不足提升综合实力提供参考。两种评价方法单独使用各有自己的缺陷,将其相结合,弥补各自的缺陷,形成一个综合评价方法。     

基于层次分析-模糊综合评价的海员能力评估模型

针对当前沿海和远洋航运企业在海员能力评估方面主观性较强且评估结果较为滞后,相关信息系统的基础数据和评估数据无法得到持续有效利用的问题,通过分析海员能力评估项的构成,采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)和模糊集理论建立动态能力评估模型。基于该模型,通过引入信息系统相关数据,提高评估标准的持续性、科学性和可操作性。     

基于AHP、Fuzzy 理论的船舶操纵性能的综合评估

为了了解各船舶之间的操纵性能是否满足安全的要求,运用IMO等有关船舶操纵性能的衡准,确定了综合评估指标;基于AHP、Fuzzy理论集成的方法建立了综合评估模型,并对该模型进行了验证。结果表明,该评估模型是正确的,对操纵者掌握、了解各船舶总的操纵性能和实际操纵具有指导意义。     

国际航运物流虚拟联盟伙伴选择研究

提出了国际航运物流虚拟联盟的概念,介绍了国际航运物流虚拟联盟合作伙伴的选择程序。根据合作伙伴选择评价的原则和我国航运物流企业的现状,初步构建了国际航运物流虚拟联盟合作伙伴的选择评价指标体系,然后采用调查问卷的形式,对选择评价指标体系进行了修正。以鼎盛航运物流公司为例,采用层次分析法(AHP)对国际航运物流虚拟联盟进行了实证分析,结果合理、实用。     

基于AHP和模糊综合评价理论的压载水管理系统实船选配模型研究

本文针对船东面临的船舶压载水管理系统实船选配的难题,设计了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评价理论的实船选配模型。该模型首先通过层次分析法建立评价指标体系,把专家对各项指标的主观评判进行数学量化,获取权重向量;通过定量和定性的方法对备选设备商的各个考核指标进行隶属度分析,最后通过模糊综合评价理论计算出最终的选配评价得分。经实际算例检验,该方法简单、实用、有效,可对船东前期的决策起到很好的辅助作用。     

基于交互式多目标决策的船型技术经济评价决策系统

给出了一种新的交互式多目标决策方法。在对指标有偏好信息及客观熵信息输出权重基础上，以严格的最小二乘法为工具，建立确定指标权重的优化模型，从而为多目标决策问题寻求到一种行之有效的方法。通过采用传统层次分析方法相比较，证明该方法在船型论证等复杂多目标决策问题上是适用和可靠的。     

基于AHP法的潜射鱼雷性能模糊评估

将层次分析法（AHP）与模糊评估法有机结合。首先依据专家评判法建立了潜射鱼雷性能评估分层指标,并根据每层中各指标因素的重要程度而分别赋予相应的权重向量。运用结合层次分析的模糊综合评判算法建立了潜射鱼雷性能综合评估模型,在该模型基础上进行具体应用分析。     

Evaluation of factors for carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta

The efficient integration of logistics modes is critical for international cargo shipping. The local transportation connecting to the export port then plays a vital role in such integration. This paper investigates the problems of carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta area, with respect to international shipping. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model is constructed based on a comprehensive industrial interviews and statistical analysis. Rather than simply ranking the given alternatives, we use AHP is used to analyse the weakness and strength of impacting factors in carrier selection. The model is implemented under different types of shipper. Seven criteria are statistically summarized from the questionnaire for evaluating eight different modes. The results are useful to those liner companies serving the PRD region in relationship to port selection and fleet deployment.     

Evaluation of factors for carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta

The efficient integration of logistics modes is critical for international cargo shipping. The local transportation connecting to the export port then plays a vital role in such integration. This paper investigates the problems of carrier selection in the China Pearl River delta area, with respect to international shipping. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model is constructed based on a comprehensive industrial interviews and statistical analysis. Rather than simply ranking the given alternatives, we use AHP is used to analyse the weakness and strength of impacting factors in carrier selection. The model is implemented under different types of shipper. Seven criteria are statistically summarized from the questionnaire for evaluating eight different modes. The results are useful to those liner companies serving the PRD region in relationship to port selection and fleet deployment.     

舰船维修招标项目评标方法研究

科学合理地对舰船维修招标项目进行评标,对提高舰船装备维修质量和维修费的使用效益具有重要意义。针对评标更注重战略性和可持续性的特点,构建了评价指标体系,并采用层次分析法确定了指标权重。在此基础上,运用模糊综合评价法进行评价,减少了主观因素的影响,克服了信息的模糊性。最后通过实例验证了方法的有效性。     

船舶机舱火灾风险评估

为了对船舶机舱进行火灾风险评估,针对船舶机舱的特点建立了一套完整的综合评价指标体系。采用层次分析法对各个指标进行权重分析,并建立基于模糊识别模式的机舱火灾风险评价模型,把权广义距离之和最小的模糊识别模型用于综合评判中。以一条浮油回收船为例对该船的机舱进行火灾风险评估,结果表明,模糊综合风险评价方法是可行有效的,为船舶火灾风险评估打下了基础。     

AHP＋模糊综合评判法在港口安全生产状态评价中的应用

如何判断港口生产是否存在安全问题,并找出存在安全问题的生产环节,以便及时采取应对措施显得尤为重要。基于上述背景条件,建立安全生产状态评价指标体系,采用AHP对各评价指标权重予以确定,最后用模糊综合评判法评价港口安全生产的状态。     

基于AHP——模糊综合评判的港口功能评价方法的研究

将层次分析法与模糊综合评判方法相结合,提出了一种新的定量的港口功能评价方法。给出了港口功能评价指标体系的结构模型。该方法在一定程度上减小了主观因素对评价的影响并使定性问题定量化。在实际问题中应用该模型证明此方法可行。     

张力腿平台系泊风险评估方法研究

文章结合模糊综合评判法、层次分析法以及概率论提出了一种风险分析的评估方法,识别了系泊中的风险因素,建立完善了相应的风险评估指标体系,并将其应用于设计中或已服役作业的张力腿平台系泊风险评估。将不同风险评估结果视为风险的总体的随机样本,用概率论和置信区间对风险评估结果进行置信度评价。克服了单一评价方案主观性太强的弱点,使评价更具有客观性和可信性。经过分析和计算实例表明,该系泊风险评估方法是适用和有效的。利用获取的评价结果,识别设计或已建成服役的张力腿平台系泊风险指数高的风险因素,并采取有效措施,加强培训及时检修设备,以防止意外的发生。结合一型设计中的张力腿平台,应用文中提出的数值风险评估模型对该平台的系泊系统进行了风险评估。结果表明该方法可以对张力腿平台的系泊风险评估中的主观因素进行客观有效的评估。并可以推广应用于其他海上结构物的风险评估问题中。     

高桩码头完好状态的模糊综合评估

根据高桩码头结构特点和功能特征,建立了包括指标层、准则层和目标层的多层评估模型。利用模糊综合评估将影响高桩码头安全运行的各个因素有机地结合起来,再根据经验所得到的判断矩阵,利用matlab软件编制出的层次分析法计算程序确定各个部分的权重,经过模糊运算得出高桩码头的状态评估结果。以天津港高桩码头为研究背景进行实用分析,结果表明这种方法具有一定的实际应用价值。     

基于Fuzzy-AHP的陆空联合火力作战协同效果评估

采用了层次分析法（AHP）与模糊综合评价法（合称为Fuzzy-AHP法）定量评估陆空联合火力作战协同效果,用AHP法建立了陆空联合火力作战协同效果评估的指标体系,构造了判断矩阵,求出了各项评估指标的单项权重和综合权重,建立了基于模糊综合评判的陆空联合火力作战协同效果评估模型,运用模糊综合评判的方法,进行了综合的定量分析和应用计算,模型比较准确地反映了各种主要因素对陆空联合火力作战协同效果的影响,为评价陆空联合火力作战协同效果提供了分析依据。