Real-time traffic estimation using data expansion

This paper presents a method for estimating missing real-time traffic volumes on a road network using both historical and real-time traffic data. The method was developed to address urban transportation networks where a non-negligible subset of the network links do not have real-time link volumes, and where that data is needed to populate other real-time traffic analytics. Computation is split between an offline calibration and a real-time estimation phase. The offline phase determines link-to-link splitting probabilities for traffic flow propagation that are subsequently used in real-time estimation. The real-time procedure uses current traffic data and is efficient enough to scale to full city-wide deployments. Simulation results on a medium-sized test network demonstrate the accuracy of the method and its robustness to missing data and variability in the data that is available. For traffic demands with a coefficient of variation as high as 40%, and a real-time feed in which as much as 60% of links lack data, we find the percentage root mean square error of link volume estimates ranges from 3.9% to 18.6%. We observe that the use of real-time data can reduce this error by as much as 20%.     

Estimation of mean and covariance of peak hour origin–destination demands from day-to-day traffic counts

This paper proposes a generalized model to estimate the peak hour origin–destination (OD) traffic demand variation from day-to-day hourly traffic counts throughout the whole year. Different from the conventional OD estimation methods, the proposed modeling approach aims to estimate not only the mean but also the variation (in terms of covariance matrix) of the OD demands during the same peak hour periods due to day-to-day fluctuation over the whole year. For this purpose, this paper fully considers the first- and second-order statistical properties of the day-to-day hourly traffic count data so as to capture the stochastic characteristics of the OD demands. The proposed model is formulated as a bi-level optimization problem. In the upper-level problem, a weighted least squares method is used to estimate the mean and covariance matrix of the OD demands. In the lower-level problem, a reliability-based traffic assignment model is adopted to take account of travelers’ risk-taking path choice behaviors under OD demand variation. A heuristic iterative estimation-assignment algorithm is proposed for solving the bi-level optimization problem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model for assessment of network performance over the whole year.     

Towards a generic benchmarking platform for origin–destination flows estimation/updating algorithms: Design,demonstration and validation

Estimation/updating of Origin–Destination (OD) flows and other traffic state parameters is a classical, widely adopted procedure in transport engineering, both in off-line and in on-line contexts. Notwithstanding numerous approaches proposed in the literature, there is still room for considerable improvements, also leveraging the unprecedented opportunity offered by information and communication technologies and big data. A key issue relates to the unobservability of OD flows in real networks – except from closed highway systems – thus leading to inherent difficulties in measuring performance of OD flows estimation/updating methods and algorithms. Starting from these premises, the paper proposes a common evaluation and benchmarking framework, providing a synthetic test bed, which enables implementation and comparison of OD estimation/updating algorithms and methodologies under “standardized” conditions. The framework, implemented in a platform available to interested parties upon request, has been flexibly designed and allows comparing a variety of approaches under various settings and conditions. Specifically, the structure and the key features of the framework are presented, along with a detailed experimental design for the application of different dynamic OD flow estimation algorithms. By way of example, applications to both off-line/planning and on-line algorithms are presented, together with a demonstration of the extensibility of the presented framework to accommodate additional data sources.     

Origin-destination matrices estimation model using automatic vehicle identification data and its application to the Han-Shin expressway network

The Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) system was recently installed in expressway networks in Japan. License plate numbers of passing vehicles are monitored through roadside AVI cameras and then recognized. This paper shows the formulation of origin and destination (OD) matrices estimation model using the observed data with the AVI system. The results of license plate matching between a pair of AVI cameras are involved as the input variables. The formulated model is a least squares model and yields to the linear transformation of the partly observed OD matrices. The model is applied to the Kobe corridor line in the Han-Shin expressway network. It is found that the estimated OD matrix is consistent with the one using the previous mail survey. The proposed estimation method is expected to investigate the day-to-day fluctuations of OD patterns in the expressway network.     

c-SPSA: Cluster-wise simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm and its application to dynamic origin–destination matrix estimation

The simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm has been used in the literature for the solution of the dynamic origin–destination (OD) estimation problem. Its main advantage is that it allows quite general formulations of the problem that can include a wide range of sensor measurements. While SPSA is relatively simple to implement, its performance depends on a set of parameters that need to be properly determined. As a result, especially in cases where the gradient of the objective function changes quickly, SPSA may not be as stable and even diverge. A modification of the SPSA algorithm, referred to as c-SPSA, is proposed which applies the simultaneous perturbation approximation of the gradient within a small number of carefully constructed “homogeneous” clusters one at a time, as opposed to all elements at once. The paper establishes the theoretical properties of the new algorithm with an upper bound for the bias of the gradient estimate and shows that it is lower than the corresponding SPSA bias. It also proposes a systematic approach, based on the k-means algorithm, to identify appropriate clusters. The performance of c-SPSA, with alternative implementation strategies, is evaluated in the context of estimating OD flows in an actual urban network. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed c-SPSA algorithm in finding better OD estimates and achieve faster convergence and more robust performance compared to SPSA with fewer overall number of function evaluations.     

Estimating the most likely space–time paths,dwell times and path uncertainties from vehicle trajectory data: A time geographic method

Global Positioning System and other location-based services record vehicles’ spatial locations at discrete time stamps. Considering these recorded locations in space with given specific time stamps, this paper proposes a novel time-dependent graph model to estimate their likely space–time paths and their uncertainties within a transportation network. The proposed model adopts theories in time geography and produces the feasible network–time paths, the expected link travel times and dwell times at possible intermediate stops. A dynamic programming algorithm implements the model for both offline and real-time applications. To estimate the uncertainty, this paper also develops a method based on the potential path area for all feasible network–time paths. This paper uses a set of real-world trajectory data to illustrate the proposed model, prove the accuracy of estimated results and demonstrate the computational efficiency of the estimation algorithm.     

Real time queue length estimation for signalized intersections using travel times from mobile sensors

We study how to estimate real time queue lengths at signalized intersections using intersection travel times collected from mobile traffic sensors. The estimation is based on the observation that critical pattern changes of intersection travel times or delays, such as the discontinuities (i.e., sudden and dramatic increases in travel times) and non-smoothness (i.e., changes of slopes of travel times), indicate signal timing or queue length changes. By detecting these critical points in intersection travel times or delays, the real time queue length can be re-constructed. We first introduce the concept of Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time which is related to the non-smoothness of queuing delay patterns and queue length changes. We then show how measured intersection travel times from mobile sensors can be processed to generate sample vehicle queuing delays. Under the uniform arrival assumption, the queuing delays reduce linearly within a cycle. The delay pattern can be estimated by a linear fitting method using sample queuing delays. Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time can then be obtained from the delay pattern, and be used to estimate the maximum and minimum queue lengths of a cycle, based on which the real-time queue length curve can also be constructed. The model and algorithm are tested in a field experiment and in simulation.     

国省道两侧建设项目出入口规划设计

为降低建设项目对国省道的影响,文章从国省道两侧建设项目特点和所处交通环境的分析入手,借鉴国内外城市项目出入口管理技术,提出了6种出入口交通组织方式.以312国道昆山市境内的某一项目为例,分析其所处交通环境,对近远期出入口交通设计方式提出建议,为国省道两侧建设项目的出入口设计提供参考.     

南宁市交通拥堵成因及对策分析

文章基于对南宁市交通状况的调查,分析了南宁市交通拥堵问题产生的原因,提出了相应的对策与建议。     

An intersection control strategy for a short‐headway P.R.T. network

Much PRT development and research is currently being undertaken assuming quasi‐synchronous longitudinal control of guideway vehicles. This method of control has the characteristic that intersection performance has a substantial influence on the efficiency of trip demand processing. An algorithm for the control of a PRT intersection is discussed here, which would appear to have significant advantages over all other known existing stratagems. The stratagem is not only efficient but its flexibility facilitates tailoring to diverse local conditions; furthermore, the algorithm does not require intractable computations or excessive computer memory requirements. The algorithm is described and simulation results are presented. A comparative study is also made between this algorithm and its fore‐runner.