Transport planning in Hungary: a case study of Pécs

This review emerged from an opportunity provided in 1988 to the author to study the process of Hungarian transport planning in general, and that of the major regional city of Pécs in particular.

It begins by outlining the difficulties of obtaining detailed information on transport policy‐making and planning in Eastern Europe, and then goes on to analyse the situation in Hungary as a whole since the early 1960s. The specific situation in Pécs is then discussed in relation to national transport planning, with detailed case studies drawn from problems on the local and regional road network, the growth in car ownership and usage, the development of local and inter‐regional rail services, the provision of adequate local bus services, and the growth of local taxi services.

The problems stemming from State intervention and planning control in local transport are emphasized, as are the increasingly difficult issues of the Hungarian economy in constraining public investment. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relationship of the problems of Pécs with those of urban areas elsewhere in Europe, and emphasizes the particular difficulties faced by East European planners in the future.     

Travel plans for new developments: a global review

A travel plan is a mechanism for delivering a package of transport measures at a site to manage car use and encourage the use of more sustainable forms of transport. In recent years, travel plans have been required for new infill and greenfield developments through the land-use planning and approvals process, predominantly in the United Kingdom, the United States, continental Europe and Australia. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a global review of travel plans for new developments. The results show that while travel plans for new developments share a common set of elements with those for pre-existing sites, differences within each element are notable, particularly in the types of travel plan measures adopted, processes for managing the travel plan, and approaches to monitoring and review. Results of previous evaluations have varied considerably, although most have reported a reduction in car driver trips of 10–20 percentage points. Despite this, most evaluations lack rigour, with a paucity of robust evidence. Key success factors identified by the literature, such as the provision of an explicit policy supporting the role of travel plans, should be embedded within the travel planning process where possible to ensure best outcomes for new developments.     

Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

Intermodal freight transport planning – A receding horizon control approach

This paper investigates intermodal freight transport planning problems among deep-sea terminals and inland terminals in hinterland haulage for a horizontally fully integrated intermodal freight transport operator at the tactical container flow level. An intermodal freight transport network (IFTN) model is first developed to capture the key characteristics of intermodal freight transport such as the modality change phenomena at intermodal terminals, physical capacity constraints of the network, time-dependent transport times on freeways, and time schedules for trains and barges. After that, the intermodal freight transport planning problem is formulated as an optimal intermodal container flow control problem from a system and control perspective with the use of the proposed IFTN model. To deal with the dynamic transport demands and dynamic traffic conditions in the IFTN, a receding horizon intermodal container flow control (RIFC) approach is proposed to control and to reassign intermodal container flows in a receding horizon way. This container flow control approach involves solving linear programming problems and is suited for transport planning on large-sized networks. Both an all-or-nothing approach and the proposed RIFC approach are evaluated through simulation studies. Simulation results show the potential of the proposed RIFC approach.     

Recent developments in national and international freight transport models within Europe

The past decade has seen many new freight transport models for use in transport planning by public authorities. Some of these models have developed new concepts, such as logistics modules, inclusion of transshipments, storage and sourcing and the determination of shipment size. This paper provides a review of the European literature on freight transport models that operate at the national or international level and have been developed since 2004. The introduction of elements of logistics thinking is identified as a common theme in recently developed models, and further worked out. Furthermore, ideas on what might be the next key developments in freight transport modelling are presented.     

Essential elements in tactical planning models for container liner shipping

Tactical planning models for liner shipping problems such as network design and fleet deployment usually minimize the total cost or maximize the total profit subject to constraints including ship availability, service frequency, ship capacity, and transshipment. Most models in the literature do not consider slot-purchasing, multi-type containers, empty container repositioning, or ship repositioning, and they formulate the numbers of containers to transport as continuous variables. This paper develops a mixed-integer linear programming model that captures all these elements. It further examines from the theoretical point of view the additional computational burden introduced by incorporating these elements in the planning model. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the effects of the elements on tactical planning decisions. Results demonstrate that slot-purchasing and empty container repositioning have the largest impact on tactical planning decisions and relaxing the numbers of containers as continuous variables has little impact on the decisions.     

Experiential Incrementalism: On the Theory and Technique to Implement Transport Plans and Policies

The paper describes an approach to the vexing problem of transport planning and policy. It deals jointly with three questions, which in today's practice are addressed separately: How are hypotheses about transport problems and alternatives to their solution developed? How can a good plan or policy be identified? What is the process of implementing a transport plan or policy? In doing this the paper has the ambitious objective of proposing a new model and process for transport planning and policy. It is applicable in developed and developing countries and is not restricted to the transport sector. The paper builds on, and is a reinterpretation of two cornerstone transport planning and decision-making models – the CATS (Chicago Area Transportation Study) Planning and Design Model and Braybrooke and Lindblom's Disjointed Incrementalism. It advances a technique of experiential incrementalism (termed polisanalysis) to develop and implement plans and policies. It proposes that problems should be diagnosed by observation and continuous data collection; that their continuous analysis, finding the “cure”, and implementation take place through the method of experiential incrementalism. In this method interventions are grounded on the theories of neoinstitutional economics and psychoanalysis and derived using contact function, explained in the paper, which renders the method scientific replicability. Experiential incrementalism can employ a wider array of options in planning and policy than is presently thought possible. Like other scientific methods, its application requires rigorous training.     

Regulating traffic by controlling land use The Southern California experience

In Los Angeles emphasis in transportation planning has recently shifted from facility construction to transportation system management and the control of land use with the goal of slowing the growth in traffic congestion. This paper critically examines several recent transportation growth management strategies in Los Angeles, and concludes that though they were well intentioned, they might not lead to the intended consequences.     

Automated real-time railway traffic control: an experimental analysis of reliability,resilience and robustness

Railway transportation provides sustainable, fast and safe transport. Its attractiveness is linked to a broad concept of service reliability: the capability to adhere to a timetable in the presence of delays perturbing traffic. To counter these phenomena, real-time rescheduling can be used, changing train orders and times, according to rules of thumb, or mathematical optimization models, minimizing delays or maximizing punctuality. In the literature, different indices of robustness, reliability and resilience are defined for railway traffic. We review and evaluate these indices applied to railway traffic control, comparing optimal rescheduling approaches such as Open Loop and Closed Loop control, to a typical First-Come-First-Served dispatching rule, and following the timetable (no-action). This experimental analysis clarifies the benefits of automated traffic control for infrastructure managers, railway operators and passengers. The timetable order, normally used in assessing a-priori reliability, systematically overestimates unreliability of operations that can be reduced by real-time control.     

A behavioural comparison of route choice on metro networks: Time,transfers, crowding,topology and socio-demographics

Understanding travellers’ behaviour is key element in transportation planning. This article presents a route choice model for metro networks that considers different time components as well as variables related to the transferring experience, train crowding, network topology and socio-demographic characteristics. The route choice model is applied to the London Underground and Santiago Metro networks, to make a comparison of the decision making process of the users on both cities. As all the variables are statistically significant, it is possible to affirm that public transport users take into account a wide variety of elements when choosing routes. While in London the travellers prefer to spend time walking, in Santiago is preferable to spend time waiting. Santiago Metro users are more willing to travel in crowded trains than London Underground users. Both user groups have a similar dispreference to transfers after controlling for the time spent on transfer, but different attitudes to ascending and descending transfers. Topological factors presented on a distorted Metro map are more important than actual topology to passengers’ route choice decisions.     

基于用地分析的公交站场布局规划研究

城市规模的不断扩大和城市化进程的加快使得大城市的交通问题日益突出,大力发展公共交通,是解决密集型大都市交通问题的有效办法。文章介绍广州市公交站场布局方法,分析存在问题的原因,为此类设施用地规划提供参考。     

Web-based survey design for unravelling semi-compensatory choice in transport and urban planning

The estimation of semi-compensatory models is gaining momentum in transport planning in recent years. However, traditional survey methodologies focus on collecting solely compensatory choice data, which leads to information loss when semi-compensatory models are estimated. The present study proposes a novel web-based survey that enables collecting data about the entire semi-compensatory choice process. The web-based environment allows seamless tracking of semi-compensatory choice protocols without interfering with the natural choice process and without introducing problems related to comprehension bias, narrative inconsistency and misinterpretation of the choice protocols. The procedure is applied to rental apartment choice by students and results shed light on semi-compensatory choice by: (1) demonstrating the importance of choice set formation; (2) unravelling the distribution of threshold selection across the population; (3) revealing the linkage between the viable choice-set and the choice.     

Multi-modal and demand-responsive passenger transport systems: a modelling framework with embedded control systems

The LITRES-2 modelling system provides a framework for investigating the performance of urban passenger transport systems, with particular attention to demand-responsive transport modes and traveller information technologies. The modes covered include conventional timetabled services (buses, trains etc.), taxis (both single- and multiple-hire), and other demand-responsive services. Tables of estimated aggregate demand are disaggregated so as to produce a stream of fully-articulated travel-requests. Individual requests are resolved as single- or multiple-leg journeys, through the use of request-broking and journey-planning modules that seek to minimise travellers' generalised costs. Journey-legs allocated to demand-responsive modes are handled by a fleet-scheduling module which includes provision for “instantaneous” as well as advance-notice bookings, and for contingent situations such as breakdowns and passenger no-shows. The fleet-scheduling and journey-planning modules are designed as embedded control systems and are intended for use in real-time as well as modelling applications. The paper describes the main analytical and procedural components of LITRES-2, and assesses some methodological issues arising from experience in recent planning studies. The system appears to be well suited for use in modelling situations where the critical issues are concerned with the supply rather than demand side of transportation activity.     

The influence of integrated space–transport development strategies on air pollution in urban areas

The phenomenon of urban sprawl has strong impacts on transport performance and accessibility and causes an increase of air pollution. Effective control of urban sprawl requires an integrated approach comprising urban transport and land-use planning. Current research is insufficient to demonstrate the effects of urban sprawl on travel behavior and air pollution emission. The present paper examines the potential of an integrated approach on space–transport development strategies with the aim of increasing accessibility and reducing air pollution. A combination of space and transport strategies has been simulated for the rapidly expanding city of Surabaya. A comparative analysis of the impact of those cases indicates the promising potential alternatives to minimize the phenomenon. The transport options considered are combinations of Public Transport (PT), comprising Mass Rapid Transit (MRT), Light Rapid Transit (LRT), and Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). The options for urban structure include a compact zone development for the city, as formulated by the city planning agency, and a polycentric city set-up based on a job-housing balance aimed at minimizing the house-job distance. The results indicate that the polycentric city structure has the potential to make public transport work successfully for the city of Surabaya. This city structure creates a trip demand pattern which matches citizens’ PT preferences. Compared to the current situation, the combination of such a city structure with an expansion of PT systems would lead to a considerable improvement of transport performance, i.e. a PT mode share, a mean commute distance, and a significant reduction in emissions.     

Changes in transport planning policy: Changes in transport planning methodology?

The 1990s saw the emergence of influential transport legislation both in the UK and in the USA. This "watershed" period appears to indicate that a significant turning point in transport policy is underway. There is now a need to re-evaluate how transport planning is done, and to consider changes to commonly used methods. Criticisms of urban transport planning are traced in the paper. These often focus on the four-stage modelling approach, but some authors also criticise the "rational comprehensive" paradigmatical framework within which the use of four-stage computer models is situated. It is argued that the rational comprehensive model of thinking is less useful today, due to the increasing complexity of the transport planning exercise; the rejection by the public of the transport planner as "expert"; and the highly political nature of transport planning. Alternative approaches are needed in order to address the new types of problems which transport planners face. The use of one such alternative approach, the Soft Systems Methodology, is illustrated as suitable for investigating complex decision-making systems in transport planning. It is suggested that this method could be beneficial in other problematic transport planning situations where the rational comprehensive approaches prove inadequate. Finally, the paper briefly looks ahead and considers the implications of a changing policy environment to the training of transport planners in the future.     

Planning for implementation

Although the urban transportation planning process has evolved into the most sophisticated of all urban planning processes, the increasirig difficulty in implementing long-range transportation plans in urban areas today suggests basic questions concerning the process which deserve critical examination.Planning for implementation of urban transportation programs, particularly during periods of rapidly changing human values, requires a continuing re-evaluation of both technical and organizational strategies and their interrelationships.This paper raises some fundamental questions about the traditional activities and relationships that have characterized most urban transportation planning programs in the past. It also suggests a number of strategies, both technical and organizational, that may contribute to the implementation of plans and programs resulting from the transportation planning process.The first portion of this paper discusses the implications of not providing transportation services to match metropolitan growth. The experience of the Washington Metropolitan Area over the past decade is used to illustrate these implications.A discussion of organizational and institutional constraints upon the planning process follows. Then, the implications for the planning process are explored, and the scale of planning is reviewed as well as the need for monitoring the performance and impact of facilities.Next, the paper deals with the need to broaden the range of solutions to transportation problems, including consideration of economic and land development policies to reduce travel demand, as well as the provision of new facilities.Finally, techniques for involving decision-makers in the planning process are discussed. Examples of special project activities in the Washington area are used to illustrate these techniques and their value.     

Recent success stories on integrated optimization of railway systems

Planning and operating railway transportation systems is an extremely hard task due to the combinatorial complexity of the underlying discrete optimization problems, the technical intricacies, and the immense size of the problem instances. Because of that, however, mathematical models and optimization techniques can result in large gains for both railway customers and operators, e.g., in terms of cost reductions or service quality improvements. In the last years a large and growing group of researchers in the OR community have devoted their attention to this domain developing mathematical models and optimization approaches to tackle many of the relevant problems in the railway planning process. However, there is still a gap to bridge between theory and practice (e.g. Cacchiani et al., 2014; Borndörfer et al., 2010), with a few notable exceptions. In this paper we address three individual success stories, namely, long-term freight train routing (part I), mid-term rolling stock rotation planning (part II), and real-time train dispatching (part III). In each case, we describe real-life, successful implementations. We will discuss the individual problem setting, survey the optimization literature, and focus on particular aspects addressed by the mathematical models. We demonstrate on concrete applications how mathematical optimization can support railway planning and operations. This gives proof that mathematical optimization can support the planning of railway resources. Thus, mathematical models and optimization can lead to a greater efficiency of railway operations and will serve as a powerful and innovative tool to meet recent challenges of the railway industry.     

Resilience in railway transport systems: a literature review and research agenda

ABSTRACT

Critical infrastructure networks, such as transport and power networks, are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. The rising transport demand increases the congestion in railway networks and thus they become more interdependent and more complex to operate. Also, an increasing number of disruptions due to system failures as well as climate changes can be expected in the future. As a consequence, many trains are cancelled and excessively delayed, and thus, many passengers are not reaching their destinations which compromises customers need for mobility. Currently, there is a rising need to quantify impacts of disruptions and the evolution of system performance. This review paper aims to set-up a field-specific definition of resilience in railway transport and gives a comprehensive, up-to-date review of railway resilience papers. The focus is on quantitative approaches. The review analyses peer-reviewed papers in Web of Science and Scopus from January 2008 to August 2019. The results show a steady increase of the number of published papers in recent years. The review classifies resilience metrics and approaches. It has been recognised that system-based metrics tend to better capture effects on transport services and transport demand. Also, mathematical optimization shows a great potential to assess and improve resilience of railway systems. Alternatively, data-driven approaches could be potentially used for detailed ex-post analysis of past disruptions. Finally, several rising future scientific topics are identified, spanning from learning from historical data, to considering interdependent critical systems and community resilience. Practitioners can also benefit from the review to understand a common terminology, recognise possible applications for assessing and designing resilient railway transport systems.     

An integrated assessment of alternative land-based passenger transport policies: A case study in Tenerife

Over recent decades, there have been numerous cases of land-based transport policies that have lacked clear and coherent strategies. This has not only hampered the resolution of issues like road congestion, but has also created new ones (e.g. strong social opposition to new train infrastructures). The absence of such strategies highlights the need for long-term transport policies with a wider vision of the issues, since land-based transport cannot be considered from just a technical perspective.The main objective of this article is to implement a participatory integrated approach to facilitate the understanding of land-based passenger transport governance issues on Tenerife, in the Canary Islands. Relevant policy issues and alternatives are identified by the stakeholders involved. The inclusion of stakeholders in the assessment process is crucial to frame transport governance issues appropriately and to define and assess plausible policy alternatives. This assessment process even included a final step of validation of the results by stakeholders to foster discussion among them about transport issues and policy alternatives.Finally, due to the obstructive role played by some stakeholders in influencing past transport policies, an analysis of possible coalitions among stakeholders is also discussed.     

Transport economics: A personal view

The field of transportation attracts individuals from diverse backgrounds, seeking to make contributions to policy, planning, operations and strategy. Economists are one of the more visible subsets of players, who bring a specific focus to the transport problem. The key theme of this paper is economic efficiency and ways that transport economics seeks to achieve efficient outcomes in the presence of markets and institutions that to varying degrees distort the potential to fulfil this primary goal. We review some of the recent contributions to the literatures on institutional and market reform, travel choice and demand. As we enter the next century, there is a sense of promoting ‘back to basics’ (and redefinition of what skills transport specialists will require) in seeking a better understanding of the role of markets and institutions in guiding the destiny of the transport sector.