Comparison of road freight transport trends in Europe. Coupling and decoupling factors from an Input–Output structural decomposition analysis

Decoupling road freight transport from economic growth has been acknowledged by the European Union as a key means to improving sustainability. It is therefore important to identify both the coupling and decoupling drivers of road freight transport demand in order to determine possible factors that may contribute to reduce road transport in the future without curbing economic development. This research proposes an Input–Output (IO) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explain road freight transport in terms of a set of key factors that have strongly influenced road freight demand in recent decades in European countries—such as economic growth, economic structure and the evolution of road transport intensity (including improvements in both supply and transport systems). This methodological approach allows us to quantify and compare their contribution in different European countries to either increase or decrease road freight transport demand. The empirical basis for this analysis is a dataset of nine European countries which have IO tables and road transport data available from 2000 to 2007, comprising data on domestic production, imports and exports as well as tonne-kms for 11 types of commodity classes. The results show that, as a whole, aggregate road transport demand has grown—driven mainly by economic activity—but this growth has been strongly curbed in some countries by changes in road freight transport intensity and moderately by the dematerialization of the economy. International transport has been also proven to be a key factor driving road freight transport volumes. Moreover, the increased penetration of foreign operators in national haulage markets appears to have reinforced the final decoupling levels observed in some cases.     

Managing Traffic by Privatization of Road Capacity: A Property Rights Approach

Abstract

Road congestion remains a serious problem, despite all the efforts to limit road use and to manage growing road traffic volumes. Economic approaches (such as pricing) are introduced based on traditional welfare economic theory. Although they are sometimes very successful, the magnitude of traffic issues also requires alternative and unconventional approaches. Perhaps a more innovative perspective is needed. The paper discusses an alternative economic approach starting from property rights theory. It is translated in transport systems in concepts of infrastructure capacity slot management, where slots are dynamically priced and exclusively allocated to individual users. Debates and practices regarding this approach in air traffic and rail traffic are further developed than in the field of road traffic. The paper aims to explore the potential benefits and disadvantages of the property rights approach for road traffic. Attention is paid to major institutional and technical conditions. The conclusion is that the approach theoretically has clear advantages and seems technologically feasible. Nevertheless, serious political and institutional issues have to be solved first.     

Hierarchical network-based equilibrium model and algorithm for a mixed-traffic urban transport system

Abstract

Many equilibrium models and algorithms based on homogeneous motorized traffic have been devised to model urban transport systems in developed countries, but they are inadequate when it comes to represent mixed-traffic urban transport systems, including automobiles, transit, bicycles, and pedestrians, in developing countries such as China or India. In these cases, traffic flow on a road segment is an aggregated result of travellers' combined mode/route choices and corresponding interactions. Therefore, a special assignment model and algorithm are needed for modeling these distinct behaviors. In this article, the structure of a mixed-traffic urban transport system is analyzed and then expanded and represented using a hierarchical network model based on graph theory. Based on the analysis of travelers' combined mode/route choices, generalized travel cost functions and link impedance functions for different modes are formulated, where the interferences between different modes on the same road segments are taken into account. Due to the ‘asymmetric’ nature of these functions, a variational inequality model is proposed to represent the equilibrium assignment problem in a mixed-traffic urban transport system. The corresponding solution algorithm is also presented. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the practicality of the proposed model and algorithm.     

Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, by analysing official data on the production, consumption and movement of food and drink products, and second, by conducting a survey of the changing freight transport requirements of 88 large British-based manufacturers.The analysis of secondary data shows how, in the food and drink sector, the relationship between the real value of output and road vehicle-kms hinges on four key parameters: value density, handling factor, average length of haul and consignment size. An attempt is made to explain variations in these parameters.The survey of manufacturers suggests that the growth of lorry traffic is the net result of a complex interaction between factors operating at four levels of logistical management: strategic planning of logistical systems, choice of suppliers and distributors, scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. Changes in the frequency and scheduling of freight deliveries in response to tightening customer service requirements and just-in-time management appear to have become a more prevalent cause of freight traffic growth than the physical restructuring of logistical systems. Manufacturers anticipate that their road freight demand will broadly increase in line with sales and be largely unaffected by road transport cost increases at the levels currently proposed. The paper concludes by examining their likely reactions to a much sharper increase in the cost of road freight movement.     

Simulation of electric vehicle driver behaviour in road transport and electric power networks

The integration of electric vehicles (EVs) will affect both electricity and transport systems and research is needed on finding possible ways to make a smooth transition to the electrification of the road transport. To fully understand the EV integration consequences, the behaviour of the EV drivers and its impact on these two systems should be studied. This paper describes an integrated simulation-based approach, modelling the EV and its interactions in both road transport and electric power systems. The main components of both systems have been considered, and the EV driver behaviour was modelled using a multi-agent simulation platform. Considering a fleet of 1000 EV agents, two behavioural profiles were studied (Unaware/Aware) to model EV driver behaviour. The two behavioural profiles represent the EV driver in different stages of EV adoption starting with Unaware EV drivers when the public acceptance of EVs is limited, and developing to Aware EV drivers as the electrification of road transport is promoted in an overall context. The EV agents were modelled to follow a realistic activity-based trip pattern, and the impact of EV driver behaviour was simulated on a road transport and electricity grid. It was found that the EV agents’ behaviour has direct and indirect impact on both the road transport network and the electricity grid, affecting the traffic of the roads, the stress of the distribution network and the utilization of the charging infrastructure.     

Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework.The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamics.     

数字运政大数据管理平台功能架构浅析

针对云南省道路运输行业管理系统较多、系统独立运行、融合复用不够等问题,本文对运政管理过程中的道路运输行业信息资源整合及数字化安全监管应用进行了浅析,提出以统一门户整合各类业务应用系统,以业务中台融合管理应用,以数据中台打造基于大数据融合支撑应用的数字运政平台功能架构研究,有效支撑道路运输的数字化建设。     

Evaluation of a reactive dynamic route guidance strategy

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the performance of a new strategy which is able to control dynamic route guidance (DRG) systems, mainly in urban road networks. The purpose of this strategy is to achieve dynamic user equilibrium in the network, even in abnormal network conditions, for example when there is an unexpected increase in traffic volume. It is based on feedback concept and it reacts to the traffic conditions observed in real time by adopting a decentralized structure.A series of experiments was performed, by means of a traffic micro-simulator, in a section of an urban road network. In the situations examined, the results seem to be quite positive. The analyses of the link level show that all of the various travel alternatives to reach the destination become more advantageous for users if DRG devices become more widespread among vehicles. In some cases we observe that the strategy succeeds in maintaining the possible alternatives in equilibrium conditions, by distributing users among the feasible turns. At no point in our investigations do we observe an unstable behaviour of the system, even when the number of vehicles fitted with a DRG device increases.     

An assessment of advanced transport telematics evaluation procedures

This paper reviews and critically assesses procedures which have been adopted to evaluate Advanced Transport Telematics (ATT) projects. The importance of such a review at this juncture stems from the changing position of ATT in transport planning. ATT is no longer simply a field for experimentation, where technical feasibility and user acceptance are dominant concerns. Rather it is a potential mainstream contributor to the functioning of road transport systems. For this reason, ATT project appraisal needs to be developed to the same form, level of sophistication and consistency as the appraisal of conventional transport infrastructure investment. Based on the review set out here, we argue that appropriate methods have not yet been established which, in turn, poses a number of challenging questions, since current socio‐economic evaluation procedures are not directly suited to either measuring or evaluating many of the impacts which ATT schemes are implemented to achieve.     

Urban transport policy development: two case studies in the Middle East

Abstract

The recent completion of two major transport studies of predominantly urban areas in the Middle East (Amman‐Jordan and Bahrain) has provided the opportunity to compare and contrast the transport characteristics of, and medium term transport policies for, the two areas.

While in structure the two transport systems have many similarities, their base year usage differs significantly. In view of the much lower income levels in Amman, and the resulting lower levels of car ownership, greater reliance is placed on public transport in Amman than in the more car‐oriented society in Bahrain. Against this background, and in the context of broadly similar overall levels of growth in travel demand, their development in the medium term future should follow different paths. Amman will need to depend on public transport very heavily, with only limited road building. Bahrain should be able to develop a satisfactory road system, with public transport playing its current role except for the provision of services for some relatively modest number of restrained private vehicle users. In both cases, however, substantial investment in off‐street parking spaces is needed.

The paper briefly describes the social and economic backgrounds of the two areas, and reviews the transport systems and the organisations responsible for them. Travel demand forecasts are summarized, leading to the transport plan and policy development. The prospects for implementation are discussed, and the paper lastly focuses on some aspects which are key to the development of the transport systems in the two countries.     

Estimation of road transport related air pollution in Saint Petersburg using European and Russian calculation models

The paper analyzes Russian and European emission and dispersion models aimed at the estimation of road transport related air pollution on street and regional scale as exemplified with St. Petersburg, Russia. It demonstrates the results of model calculations of peak concentrations of main harmful substances (NО_X, CO and PM₁₀) along the St. Petersburg Ring Road at high traffic volume and adverse meteorological conditions (calm, temperature inversion) executed by means of a Russian street pollution model, and it evaluates the computed results against the measurements from monitoring stations. The paper also examines the ways of adaptation of the COPERT IV model – a software tool for calculation of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transport on regional or country scale – to the inventory conditions of the Russian Federation, compares the COPERT IV numerical estimates with the national inventory data. It also reveals the obstacles and possibilities in the harmonization of the Russian and European approaches.     

Traffic Noise in Europe: A Comparison of Calculation Methods,Noise Indices and Noise Standards for Road and Railroad Traffic in Europe

The demand for inland freight transport in Europe is mainly met by road transport, leading to unsustainable impacts such as air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and congestion. Since rail transport has lower externalities than road transport, a modal shift from road to rail is an accepted policy goal for achieving a more sustainable and competitive transport system. However, intermodal road–rail transport is mainly competitive for long-distance transport, and as a consequence, the potential for modal shift is limited. The cost efficiency of road–rail intermodal transport is particularly sensitive to pre- and post-haulage (PPH) costs, since this activity typically has a larger cost compared with its share of the total distance in the transport chain. For intermodal transportation over shorter distances, for example, below 300 km and where there are substantial PPH activities at both ends of the chain, the competitiveness of the intermodal transport system compared with that of direct road is low. Improving the efficiency of PPH activities is, therefore, of utmost importance for the competitiveness of the intermodal transport system. This paper looks into the issue of improving the cost efficiency of an intermodal transport chain by implementing an innovative and flexible legal framework regarding the PPH activities in the chain. By extending the legal framework with exemptions for longer vehicles in PPH, the cost efficiency could be greatly improved. The purpose of such a framework is to allow and enable, for PPH exclusively, the use of 2?×?40 foot or even two semi-trailers using only one vehicle in the context of the Swedish regulatory framework. This paper develops a strategic calculation model for assessing and investigating the consequences of such a framework and investigates the framework's potential in terms of cost efficiency. The model in combination with a sensitivity analysis of input variables gives a comprehensive understanding of the effects of PPH under different circumstances. From the results, it is evident that there are substantial positive effects associated with a PPH framework of longer vehicles. Results indicate that a typical shipper may experience cost reductions of about 5–10% of the total costs of the intermodal transport chain. In summary, a more innovative and flexible legal framework regarding vehicle length in the PPH links can contribute to a greater modal shift, improved cost efficiency and more environmentally friendly transportation systems.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Road pricing: An international perspective

This paper reviews experience with road pricing in Europe and Asia. It considers the objectives of road pricing, and demonstrates that differences in objectives lead to differences in scheme design and performance. It reviews the criteria for design of road pricing systems, and the development of charging structures and technologies to meet those criteria. In particular it discusses the relative merits of pre-determined and congestion-dependent charging structures, and of off-vehicle and on-vehicle charging systems. It assesses the performance of road pricing systems to date, discusses objections to road pricing and demonstrates that the role of road pricing within a wider transport strategy and the use made of the revenue generated, will be important determinants of public acceptability. Finally it assesses the relative merits of alternative approaches to implementation and argues that these will need to pay as much regard to public acceptability as to technical performance.     

Enhanced bus operations: The Curitiba model and its applicability to China

Buses will remain the backbone of public transport systems for some time to come because of their lower cost and higher flexibility in relation to rail transport. However, buses are perceived as being an inferior mode of public transport and do not offer as much carrying capacity as rail transport. Following the Curitiba model, this paper looks at the potential for transferring some of the key advantages of rail transport to bus operations. This involves transforming bus stops into enclosed stations, with ticket purchase and/or checking in the station and at‐grade access to vehicles. It also involves the extensive use of bus lanes. The potential contribution of transport telematics is looked at, in particular the use of smartcards for payment in a closed fare system. The potential role of the Curitiba model for China is assessed in the context of toll road construction.     

International comparisons of bus licensing

Based upon a doctoral research programme which surveyed bus and coach licensing systems throughout the world, this article seeks to arrive at a taxonomy of licensing. It identifies the familiar principles of quality, quantity and price control, examines them against the British licensing system introduced in 1930, and concludes that quantity control forms a more or less permeable barrier to contestability in the market for public road passenger transport; where it is strong, it is a constraint upon the sustainability of the market. It defines the British and the many similar licensing systems as arbitrational, and contrasts this characteristic with systems which are overtly based upon the allocation of a franchise.

The central section of the paper analyses various systems in more detail, and warns against too great a dependence upon the letter of the law. Much depends upon the ways in which regulations can be interpreted, and cases exist where practice contradicts the statute. There is found to be a division between arbitrational and franchise systems that is broadly the same as the division between countries with a Common Law background, and those with a Romano‐Germanic polity. Franchise is however common in the control of urban transport in countries where the extra‐urban system is arbitrational.

Franchise systems are further defined as being either concessions, or subcontracts. The significance of the franchising authority is examined. The final section sets out the issues of principle that appear to follow from this analysis, and stresses the importance of the distinction between arbitration and franchise for the understanding of licensing and control.     

Transformation of transport policy in Great Britain

The British Government recently issued a white paper on its future transport strategy. Its central precept is unambiguous: current trends in traffic are unsustainable, from the point of view of the environment, business efficiency, health, and the unfeasibility of providing growth in road capacity that would keep pace with predicted growth in traffic. Much of the policy logic in the white paper stems from the explicit abandonment of `predict-and-provide' as a desirable — or possible — strategy. This leads to a recognition of the importance of a co-ordinated approach to public transport, walking and cycling, together with policies aimed at reducing less necessary travel where possible; ensuring that the costs of congestion and environmental pollution are, as far as practical, met by those who cause them (in which the revenue from new pricing systems would be kept under local control and used for transport improvements); an emphasis on better maintenance and management of the road system rather than increasing its capacity; consideration of the effects on transport of other policies in land-use, health, education etc; development of institutional structures or contractual arrangements able to bring these changes about; and conditions in which people's everyday behaviour and attitudes may be in harmony with policy, finance and environmental constraints. These themes did not arise out of the blue following the general election in 1997. They evolved over many years, especially in nearly ten years of intense discussion connected with the previous two governments' recognition that the 1989 road programme (`Roads to Prosperity'), in spite of its size and expense, would still not be nearly sufficient to keep pace with traffic growth, as well as being environmentally damaging. The process of discussion and argument has not ceased with publication of the white paper. A very interesting feature of the current debate is that its central argument is widely (though not unanimously) accepted in the media, with great emphasis on the problems of implementation. The author argues that the policy shift is genuine and firmly grounded in research, though with a number of real problems in implementation, research and methodology that will have to be addressed.     

How experience of use influences mass-market drivers’ willingness to consider a battery electric vehicle: A randomised controlled trial

Uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) by consumers could reduce CO₂ emissions from light duty road transport, but little is known about how mass-market consumer drivers will respond to them. Self-Congruity theory proposes that products are preferred whose symbolic meanings are congruent with personal identity. Further, Construal Level theory suggests that only those who are psychologically close to a new product category through direct experience with it can make concrete construals related to their lifestyles; most drivers lack this for EVs. For instance, potential performance benefits of EVs might offset range limitations for consumers who have such direct experience. The effect of direct experience was tested in a randomised controlled trial with 393 mass-market consumer drivers. An experimental group were given direct experience of a modern battery electric vehicle (BEV), and a control group an equivalent conventional car. Despite rating the performance of the BEV more highly than that of the conventional car, willingness to consider a BEV declined after experience, particularly if the range of the BEV considered was short. The participants willing to consider a short-range BEV were those high in self-congruity, for whom the BEV could act as a strong symbol of personal identity.     

Induced traffic: what do transportation models tell us?

Mathematical models of transportation systems have played a prominent role in transportation planning throughout the world since the 1960s. These models are hypotheses of how people use transport systems. They provide a means of extrapolating the necessarily limited empirical evidence of how road users respond to changes in the road system. However, it needs to be recognised that these extrapolations rely for their validity on the realism of the underlying theories; transportation models can only tell us about the relationships actually built into them.This paper reviews the limited number of studies undertaken mainly in the UK in which calibrated transportation models have been used in a systematic way to give some insight into the relative importance of the various components of induced traffic. These studies include analyses of the effects of road schemes using: a theoretical single link model; conventional four-stage transportation models of Cardiff and Belfast; elasticity models in Cardiff, Belfast, West London and Norwich; land-use interaction models in Leeds, Bilbao, Dortmund; and a model of land-use effects in Norwich. The results tell us two things: (a) the scale of the various elements of induced traffic, and (b) the implications for the economic benefits of road schemes.