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1.
Discrete choice modeling is experiencing a reemergence of research interest in the inclusion of latent variables as explanatory variables of consumer behavior. There are several reasons that motivate the integration of latent attributes, including better-informed modeling of random consumer heterogeneity and treatment of endogeneity. However, current work still is at an early stage and multiple simplifying assumptions are usually imposed. For instance, most previous applications assume all of the following: independence of taste shocks and of latent attributes, exclusion restrictions, linearity of the effect of the latent attributes on the utility function, continuous manifest variables, and an a priori bound for the number of latent constructs. We derive and apply a structural choice model with a multinomial probit kernel and discrete effect indicators to analyze continuous latent segments of travel behavior, including inference on the energy paradox. Our estimator allows for interaction and simultaneity among the latent attributes, residual correlation, nonlinear effects on the utility function, flexible substitution patterns, and temporal correlation within responses of the same individual. Statistical properties of the Bayes estimator that we propose are exact and are not affected by the number of latent attributes. 相似文献
2.
In batch map matching the objective is to derive from a time series of position data the sequence of road segments visited by the traveler for posterior analysis. Taking into account the limited accuracy of both the map and the measurement devices several different movements over network links may have generated the observed measurements. The set of candidate solutions can be reduced by adding assumptions about the traveller’s behavior (e.g. respecting speed limits, using shortest paths, etc.). The set of feasible assumptions however, is constrained by the intended posterior analysis of the link sequences produced by map matching. This paper proposes a method that only uses the spatio-temporal information contained in the input data (GPS recordings) not reduced by any additional assumption.The method partitions the trace of GPS recordings so that all recordings in a part are chronologically consecutive and match the same set of road segments. Each such trace part leads to a collection of partial routes that can be qualified by their likelihood to have generated the trace part. Since the trace parts are chronologically ordered, an acyclic directed graph can be used to find the best chain of partial routes. It is used to enumerate candidate solutions to the map matching problem.Qualification based on behavioral assumptions is added in a separate later stage. Separating the stages helps to make the underlying assumptions explicit and adaptable to the purpose of the map matched results. The proposed technique is a multi-hypothesis technique (MHT) that does not discard any hypothesized path until the second stage.A road network extracted from OpenStreetMap (OSM) is used. In order to validate the method, synthetic realistic GPS traces were generated from randomly generated routes for different combinations of device accuracy and recording period. Comparing the base truth to the map matched link sequences shows that the proposed technique achieves a state of the art accuracy level. 相似文献
3.
This paper develops a comprehensive approach to the definition of transportation analysis zones (TAZ), and therein, presents
a new methodology and algorithm for the definition of TAZ embedded in geographic information systems software, improves the
base algorithm with several local algorithms, and comprehensively analyses the obtained results. The results obtained are
then compared to these presently used in the transportation analysis process of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. The proposed
algorithm presents a new methodology for TAZ design based on a smoothed density surface of geocoded travel demand data. The
algorithm aims to minimise the loss of information when moving from a continuous representation of the origin and destination
of each trip to their discrete representations through zones, and focuses on the trade-off between the statistical precision,
geographical error, and the percentage of intra-zonal trips of the resulting OD matrix. The results for the Lisbon Metropolitan
Area case study suggest a significant improvement in OD matrix estimates compared to current transportation analysis practises
based on administrative units.
Luis M. Martínez is a Civil Engineer from the Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon since 2004. After finishing his degree, he started his work as researcher in the CESUR (Civil Engineering & Architecture Department—Instituto Superior Técnico) where he has been working since. In 2006 he completed his Master Thesis at Instituto Superior Técnico on Traffic Analysis Zones modeling and started his PhD studies on the theme: Metropolitan Transportation Systems Financing Using the Value Capture Concept. José Manuel Viegas is Full Professor of Transportation at the Civil Engineering & Architecture Department of the Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon. He has worked extensively in Modeling, Innovation and Policy in several types of Transport Systems. He was founder and first Director General of Transportnet, a group of eight leading European Universities with Advanced Studies in Transportation, and currently leads the Portuguese side of the Transportation Systems area in the MIT—Portugal program. Elisabete A. Silva is at the University of Cambridge (University Lecturer in Planning at the Department of Land Economy and a Fellow of Robinson College). With more than 100 contributions in peer review journals, books/books chapters, conference proceedings, and a research track record of approximately 16 years, (both at the public and private sector), her research interests are centred on the application of new technologies to spatial planning in particular city and metropolitan dynamic modelling through time. 相似文献
| Elisabete A. SilvaEmail: |
Luis M. Martínez is a Civil Engineer from the Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon since 2004. After finishing his degree, he started his work as researcher in the CESUR (Civil Engineering & Architecture Department—Instituto Superior Técnico) where he has been working since. In 2006 he completed his Master Thesis at Instituto Superior Técnico on Traffic Analysis Zones modeling and started his PhD studies on the theme: Metropolitan Transportation Systems Financing Using the Value Capture Concept. José Manuel Viegas is Full Professor of Transportation at the Civil Engineering & Architecture Department of the Instituto Superior Técnico, Technical University of Lisbon. He has worked extensively in Modeling, Innovation and Policy in several types of Transport Systems. He was founder and first Director General of Transportnet, a group of eight leading European Universities with Advanced Studies in Transportation, and currently leads the Portuguese side of the Transportation Systems area in the MIT—Portugal program. Elisabete A. Silva is at the University of Cambridge (University Lecturer in Planning at the Department of Land Economy and a Fellow of Robinson College). With more than 100 contributions in peer review journals, books/books chapters, conference proceedings, and a research track record of approximately 16 years, (both at the public and private sector), her research interests are centred on the application of new technologies to spatial planning in particular city and metropolitan dynamic modelling through time. 相似文献
4.
Driving behavior is generally considered to be one of the most important factors in crash occurrence. This paper aims to evaluate the benefits of utilizing context-relevant information in the driving behavior assessment process (i.e. contextual driving behavior assessment approach). We use a Bayesian Network (BN) model that investigates the relationships between GPS driving observations, individual driving behavior, individual driving risks, and individual crash frequency. In contrast to prior studies without context information (i.e. non-contextual approach), the data used in the BN approach is a combination of contextual features in the surrounding environment that may contribute to crash risk, such as road conditions surrounding the vehicle of interest and dynamic traffic flow information, as well as the non-contextual data such as instantaneous driving speed and the acceleration/deceleration of a vehicle. An information-aggregation mechanism is developed to aggregates massive amounts of vehicle GPS data points, kinematic events and context information into drivel-level data. With the proposed model, driving behavior risks for drivers is assessed and the relationship between contextual driving behavior and crash occurrence is established. The analysis results in the case study section show that the contextual model has significantly better performance than the non-contextual model, and that drivers who drive at a speed faster than others or much slower than the speed limit at the ramp, and with more rapid acceleration or deceleration on freeways are more likely to be involved in crash events. In addition, younger drivers, and female drivers with higher VMT are found to have higher crash risk. 相似文献
5.
Law and Characteristics Analysis of Domestic Tunnel Construction Accidents from 2006 to 2016北大核心CSCD
With the rapid development of tunnel construction in China, strengthening statistical studies of domestic tunnel construction accidents is of great significance in order to understand the safety status of tunnel construction and the development trends of tunnel construction accidents and for exploring the direction of future scientific re-search. There were 89 tunnel construction accidents in China (not including subway tunnels or municipal tunnels)from 2006 to 2016. The characteristics of these accidents are analyzed in terms of time distribution, spatial distribu-tion, grade and type of accident according to the statistics by means of line charts, bar charts and pie charts. Corre-sponding prevention and control recommendations are put forward considering the factors such as year, month, work-ing day, time period, region, location, grade and type. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved. 相似文献
6.
Traditional trip distribution models usually ignore the fact that destination choices are made individually in addition to aggregated factors, such as employment and average travel costs. This paper proposes a disaggregated analysis of destination choices for intercity trips, taking into account aggregated characteristics of the origin city, an impedance measurement and disaggregated variables related to the individual, by applying nonparametric Decision Tree (DT) algorithms. Furthermore, each algorithm’s performance is compared with traditional gravity models estimated from a stepwise procedure (1) and a doubly constrained procedure (2). The analysis was based on a dataset from the 2012 Origin-Destination Survey carried out in Bahia, Brazil. The final selected variables to describe the destination choices were population of the origin city, GDP of the origin city and travel distances at an aggregated level, as well as the variables: age, occupation, level of education, income (monthly), number of cars per household and gender at a disaggregated one. The comparison of the DT models with gravity models demonstrated that the former models provided better accuracy when predicting the destination choices (trip length distribution, goodness-of-fit measures and qualitative perspective). The main conclusion is that Decision Tree algorithms can be applied to distribution modeling to improve traditional trip distribution approaches by assimilating the effect of disaggregated variables. 相似文献
7.
This study adopts a dwelling unit level of analysis and considers a probabilistic choice set generation approach for residential choice modeling. In doing so, we accommodate the fact that housing choices involve both characteristics of the dwelling unit and its location, while also mimicking the search process that underlies housing decisions. In particular, we model a complete range of dwelling unit choices that include tenure type (rent or own), housing type (single family detached, single family attached, or apartment complex), number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms, number of storeys (one or multiple), square footage of the house, lot size, housing costs, density of residential neighborhood, and commute distance. Bhat’s (2015) generalized heterogeneous data model (GHDM) system is used to accommodate the different types of dependent outcomes associated with housing choices, while capturing jointness caused by unobserved factors. The proposed analytic framework is applied to study housing choices using data derived from the 2009 American Housing Survey (AHS), sponsored by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The results confirm the jointness in housing choices, and indicate the superiority of a choice set formation model relative to a model that assumes the availability of all dwelling unit alternatives in the choice set. 相似文献
8.
Planning of sustainable transportation systems requires integration of multiple systems while considering a holistic approach. A limited amount of research has been conducted that simultaneously considers all the transportation, economic activity, environmental and social effects. The proposed research envisages incorporating considerations related to sustainability and providing solutions to stakeholders in policy making. In this paper, a dynamic model for planning and development of sustainable transportation systems is presented. This is given by a system of three nonlinear differential equations representing the dynamics of the three independent states, namely, transportation, activity, and environmental systems. A policy scenario considering investment in energy efficient technologies and its effects on the states is discussed to assist making investment decisions. Optimal control techniques are used to design the controls. The results show that it is possible to formulate an optimal control to achieve the desired target. Numerical results, based on actual parameters, are presented to illustrate the long-term trends of the states. The methodology discussed in this paper will be helpful to decision makers in making optimal decisions. The contribution of this research work is the introduction of a systems and controls methodology to develop optimal policies for the design of sustainable systems. 相似文献
9.
The objective of this study is to analyze the public acceptability of deep subterranean railway systems, which will be constructed in the space 40 m below ground level and will be operated at twice the speed of the existing subway system. Although such railway systems have been feasible in terms of construction technologies and economics, public acceptability must be considered for the successful introduction of such a new public infrastructure. Therefore, to perform the analysis of public acceptability, a telephone-based survey was conducted for residents in the vicinity of the planned the deep subterranean railway systems. As a result, about 70% of the respondents answered that they took a neutral or opposing attitude to introducing the deep subterranean railway systems. Awareness of the deep subterranean railway systems has a positive impact on its acceptability. In addition, the acceptability is found to show a negative relationship with environment and inconvenience factors. Based on the analysis results, an affective approach through soft measures such as awareness campaigns and advertisements is recommended to effectively address and mitigate the concerns and issues raised by the public. 相似文献
10.
《运输规划与技术》2012,35(8):868-880
ABSTRACTAnalysis of elevator traffic in high rise buildings is critical to the performance evaluation of elevator group control systems (EGCS). Elevator dispatching methods or parking algorithms in an EGCS can be designed or modified according to analyses of traffic flow. However, interpretation of traffic flow based solely on numerical data may not be explicit and transparent for EGCS experts as well as for other non-expert building administration. In this study, we present a model for visualization and analysis of elevator traffic. First, we present an alternative approach for traffic analysis which we call route visualization. In the proposed approach, we initially decompose elevator traffic into its component parts and investigate each component independently. Then, using superposition of components we obtain a reconstructed model of overall traffic. This modeling approach provides component-based traffic analysis and representation of routes with intensities through data visualization. In the second part we introduce a multi-dimensional analysis of time parameters in ECGS. This approach provides a comparative analysis of several control algorithms such as dispatch or park algorithms for different combinations of traffic components. 相似文献
11.
文章以深圳地铁车公庙枢纽工程为例,研究了受基坑群开挖影响的近接运营地铁隧道的隆沉变形规律及其变位控制措施。为了达到控制既有隧道及轨道结构变位的目的,通过方案优化、理论分析和数值模拟等研究手段,根据结构变位分配原理,制定了基坑群施工各步序轨道结构的变形控制标准。受基坑开挖卸载效应的影响,近接既有隧道具有明显的变位叠加效应,其中基坑开挖卸载和降水是影响结构变形控制的关键步序。基坑降水对控制下卧隧道隆起变形是有利因素,但紧邻侧方位基坑降水对控制结构水平变形是不利因素,因此在设计和施工中应综合考虑地下结构不同方向变位基准来制定合理的降水措施。实测结果表明,基坑群开挖过程中既有地铁轨道结构变形满足控制标准要求,验证了变形控制基准的合理性和工程措施的有效性。 相似文献