公路BOT项目的投资回报分析

<正> BOT作为一种融资途径,能吸引大量国际商业资本和私人资本投入公共基础设施,减少避免政府的财政负担、债务风险,同时还有利于提高项目的运作效率和缩短建设周期等。BOT投资方式已受到我国政府的重视,并进入试验性阶段。其中:中国政府已确定把同三国道主干线广东省的阳江至电白高速公路作为公路建设BOT投资方式试点项目之一。 在采用BOT投资方式运作过程中,政府和BOT投资者是项目组织实施的两个主体,如何合理地在两个主体之间分配风险,是BOT项目成功的关键。风险分担问题上国际通常做     

高速公路建设项目投资与风险管控分析

高速公路作为我国经济发展的重要载体,高速公路项目建设的好坏直接影响我国经济发展建设。以高速公路建设项目投资主体为着手点,对当前投资资金管理方式展开分析,并提出有关高速公路建设项目投资风险控制的实施策略,确保高速公路建设项目投资风险得到有效控制,从而提高高速公路工程建设项目的经济效益。     

铁路支线建设引入BOT方式问题初探

<正> 进入80年代以来,BOT方式作为一种项目融资形式,受到世界各国的广泛关注,特别是发展中国家,为了解决长期性投资资本的不足,在电力、交通、港口和桥梁等基础设施建设中相继引入BOT方式,并被视为配合投资促进战略和吸收外资的有效手段加以推广,而且取得了良好的效果。近年来,我国的一些公路和工业项目等基础设施建设也开始引入BOT方式。面对悄然兴起的BOT方式,铁路部门将如     

支持输油气管道项目BOT战略的法律框架

BOT作为项目融资的一种方式,是国际经济合作发展到一定阶段的产物。对于普遍缺乏资金的发展中国家来说,采用BOT方式吸引私人资本和外国资本投资于本国的基础设施建设,不仅是减少政府借款、减轻财政负担的手段,同时也极大地推进了国家吸引国外投资的进程。跨度在几百公里、甚至上千公里的输送石油、天然气管道是推进发展中国家能源战略的关键基础设施,而其投资额一般需要50～100亿美元,投资风险极大。同时由于国际经济环境的复杂性,使得在进行国际融资时的决策变得十分棘手。从目前世界范围来看,往往是BOT项目谈判的多,而实际实施成功的…     

BOT投融资与我国铁路建设

<正> (一BOT投融资及其在国内外实践概况 一、BOT投融资方式的涵义 BOT是英文Build—Operate—Transfer的缩写,意思是建设—经营—移交。典型的BOT方式是指工程项目由其所在国政府通过契约方式授予特许权的投资主体承包,该投资主体在合同期内对其承包的工程项目有所有权、经营权,并负责该项目的融资、设计、建设和偿还全部贷款。合同期满后,将该设施移交给所在国政府。这实质上是一种债务与股权相混合的建设、经营方式。主要适用于投资数额大、建     

公路BOT投资模式的运作及制度效应

本文从公路投融资角度出发对我国公路投资建设中运用BOT模式所涉及的问题进行了分析,论述了公路BOT投资建设模式的运作及其制度效应,指出公路BOT投资建设模式可能带来的负面影响,提出政府对公路BOT项目的管制问题。     

青海公路建设BOT融资的政府角色定位

阐述公路建设BOT融资方式中政府的角色定位决定了政府在BOT项目中的行为方式及法律适用原则,是保证BOT项目成功运作的前提条件.     

BOT融资方式在公路建设中的应用

通过对BOT融资方式的产生背景和我国应用BOT融资方式的实际情况的分析,揭示了我国公路交通项目应用BOT融资方式的基础与条件,提出了加快我国公路交通设施建设应用BOT融资方式应采取的措施.     

公路BOT项目热点与难点分析

BOT(建设-运营-移交)方式是国际上公认适用于公路等基础设施建设项目融资和管理的有效模式.结合已颁布实施的<收费公路条例>和多年来的工作实践,论述了BOT项目在我国公路建设中的作用,详细分析了实际操作中的热点与难点问题,提出了解决方案和应注意的事项.     

蜀道难亟待民资破解

四川省副省长王怀臣在四川高速公路项目实施BOT招商说明会上表示，资金是四川发展交通最大的问题。四川省面积达48．57万平方公里，“在这么大的范围建成完善的公路网，非常不容易。”因此，四川在这方面的理念是“不求所有、但求所在”——加大市场化配置资源的力度，深化交通投融资体制改革，推广BOT、BT等融资模式，鼓励和吸引社会资金进入交通基础设施建设领域。“这可以说是我们效益最好的四条高速公路，我们拿出来实施BOT方式招商，目的是吸纳民间资本进入，拓宽四川交通建设的融资渠道。”     

Analysis of regulation and policy of private toll roads in a build-operate-transfer scheme under demand uncertainty

The build-operate-transfer (BOT) approach is one of the privatization mechanisms for promoting transportation infrastructure developments by using private funds to construct new infrastructure facilities. In a BOT scheme, it often involves three parties: the government, whose objective is to maximize the benefit defined in terms of social welfare added to the society; the private investors, whose objective is to maximize the profit generated from the investment; and the road users, whose objective is to minimize the inequality of benefit distribution among the road users traveling from different origin–destination pairs. Each of these parties has different objectives that often conflict with each other. In this paper, we develop various optimal road pricing models under demand uncertainty for analyzing the tradeoffs among the three objectives. In addition, a project evaluation framework is developed for assessing the effects of government policy and regulation on the BOT project. Seven cases of the BOT road pricing problem are analyzed: (1) BOT without regulation, (2) BOT with price control regulation, (3) BOT with equity regulation, (4) BOT with construction cost subsidy, (5) BOT with concession period extension, (6) BOT with construction cost subsidy and concession period extension, and (7) BOT with multiple objectives. Numerical results using a real case study of the Ban Pong–Kanchananburi Motorway (BMK) in Thailand are provided to examine the above seven cases.     

The analysis of regulation on private highway investment under a build-operate-transfer scheme

The build-operate-transfer (BOT) approach has become an attractive instrument for public facility provision, especially for a project that faces difficulty with public finance. This study analyzes the regulation alternatives on private highway investment under a BOT scheme and their impacts on traffic flows, travel costs, toll, capacity, and social welfare (total user-benefit in the traffic system including congestion). For comparison, five cases are analyzed: (1) No BOT with maximizing welfare, (2) No BOT with breaking even on finance, (3) BOT without regulation, (4) BOT with a minimum flow constraint (the total users will not be less than those in Case 1), and (5) BOT with a maximum travel cost constraint (the travel cost for users on a non-tolled road will not exceed the maximum tolerance). After each case is modeled and simulated on some functional forms, we find that the case of BOT with regulations performs between the cases of maximizing welfare and that of maximizing profit. From the perspective of the government, regulation has less power in a project with low elastic demand. Furthermore, even when the regulation is strict, a high cost-efficient firm with BOT could result in a higher level of social welfare than that without a BOT scheme.     

小净距大跨度公路隧道安全风险管理与施工技术

小净距大跨度隧道风险影响因素复杂、施工期风险较大,需要开展有效的安全风险管理.通过对各类小净距大跨度隧道施工安全事故的分析统计,并结合现场施工实践,建立了安全风险评价指标体系,提出了施工阶段风险管理理念.文章引入ANP方法综合分析风险指标体系各指标间的相互关系,计算出各指标的整体权重,评价出施工中的主要风险源,并针对其制定了有效的施工控制措施.广安翠屏山隧道工程实践证明,实行安全风险管理可提高施工期安全水平,保证工程的顺利推进以至完工.其理论和方法可为同类工程所借鉴.     

Application of particle swarm optimization and robust net present value for BOT-type contracts

Major infrastructure construction projects contracted to private companies by governments are important for maximizing profitability. This paper extends an existing build–operate–transfer (BOT) concession model (BOTCcM) for identifying the reasonable concession period which would be profitable both to the government and to the private sector. There are some major limitations with BOTCcM – for example, the total investment cost is pre-given and the impact of uncertainty of parameters affecting the concession period were not considered. In this research, the total investment cost is assumed as variable which should be optimally determined and the uncertainty of net cash flows is considered. Further, the proposed model is implemented to calculate the robust concession period and required capital for the construction period, using the obtained values and particle swarm optimization method.     

Optimal selection of build-operate-transfer projects on transportation networks

This paper considers the problem of how to select highway projects for the build-operate-transfer (BOT) development with the objective of improving the social benefit while ensuring the marketability of those selected. The problem can be viewed as a tri-level leader-follower game and is formulated as a mixed integer program with equilibrium constraints. Without solving the associated problem, we show that optimal tolls and travel times on selected BOT highways can be determined from their attributes under mild assumptions. This leads to an efficient heuristic algorithm for solving the project selection problem.     

Optimal choice of capacity,toll and government guarantee for build-operate-transfer roads under asymmetric cost information

The private provision of public roads via the build-operate-transfer (BOT) mode has been increasingly used around the world. By viewing a BOT contract as a combination of road capacity, toll and government guarantee, this paper investigates optimal concession contract design under both symmetric and asymmetric information about the marginal maintenance cost of private investors. Under asymmetric information, the government guarantee serves as an instrument to induce a private investor to reveal his true cost information. Compared with the situation under symmetric information, the government will suffer a loss of social welfare; the private investor will charge a higher toll that increases in his reported marginal maintenance cost, and specify a lower capacity that decreases with the reported cost. The results also show that the private investor obtains extra information rent beyond the reservation level of return and the rent decreases with his reported cost. However, the resulting volume-capacity ratios of the BOT road under both information structures are the same.     

Using bi-level programming to analyze the royalty for private–public partnership projects: the operational quantity-based model

Abstract

This paper develops a royalty negotiation model based on the operating quantity of Build, Operate, and Transfer (BOT) projects for both government and the private sector using a bi-level programming (BLP) approach. The royalty negotiation is one of many critical negotiation items of a concession contract. This study develops a royalty negotiation model to simulate the negotiation behavior of two parties, and derives the heuristic algorithm for the BLP problem. A number of factors are incorporated into this algorithm including the concession rate, the time value discount rate, the learning rate, and the number of negotiations. The paper includes a case study of the Taipei Port Container Logistic BOT Project. The results show that the two parties involved completed royalty negotiation at the sixth negotiation stage. The findings show that the government can receive a royalty from the concessionaire, calculated at 0.00386% of the operating quantity of this BOT project. Therefore, the royalty negotiation model developed here could be employed to explain negotiation behavior.     

Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals

Recent empirical studies have found widespread inaccuracies in traffic forecasts despite the fact that travel demand forecasting models have been significantly improved over the past few decades. We suspect that an intrinsic selection bias may exist in the competitive project appraisal process, in addition to the many other factors that contribute to inaccurate traffic forecasts. In this paper, we examine the potential for selection bias in the governmental process of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) transportation project appraisals. Although the simultaneous consideration of multiple criteria is typically used in practice, traffic flow estimate is usually a key criterion in these appraisals. For the purposes of this paper, we focus on the selection bias associated with the highest flow estimate criterion. We develop two approaches to quantify the level and chance of inaccuracy caused by selection bias: the expected value approach and the probability approach. The expected value approach addresses the question “to what extent is inaccuracy caused by selection bias?”. The probability approach addresses the question “what is the chance of inaccuracy due to selection bias?”. The results of this analysis confirm the existence of selection bias when a government uses the highest traffic forecast estimate as the priority criterion for BOT project selection. In addition, we offer some insights into the relationship between the extent/chance of inaccuracy and other related factors. We do not argue that selection bias is the only reason for inaccurate traffic forecasts in BOT projects; however, it does appear that it could be an intrinsic factor worthy of further attention and investigation.     

软土地铁盾构法隧道工程风险识别与应对

结合上海地铁7号线工程,提出以动态风险识别过程为主线、以静态风险识别为手段的风险识别方法,对地铁盾构法隧道工程建设的风险进行了识别。在风险识别的基础上,结合以往软土隧道工程建设的实践经验、数据资料以及隧道工程理论,重点研究了盾构法隧道工程实施过程中一些典型风险的应对措施。另外,对跨越黄浦江段隧道、联络通道等特殊工程的风险进行了详细的分析与研究。     

Estimating economic losses of industry clusters due to port disruptions

Seaport operations are highly important for industries which rely heavily on imports and exports. A reliable evaluation of port risks is essential to govern the normal running of seaborne transportation and thus the industrial economies. The occurrence of a breakdown in the trade facilitators, such as ports, will disrupt the smooth flow of supply chains for the industries. The estimation of the economic loss for an industry when a port gets disrupted is a challenging task as the relationship between the port and industry clusters is complex. This study aims to develop a systematic framework for performing economic loss estimation of industry clusters due to port disruptions. The whole risk assessment is split into three stages focusing on the establishment of a network flow model, economic estimations and evaluating risk mitigation strategies. The proposed idea is demonstrated by a case study on Shenzhen port and its related manufacturing industries. A dynamic inventory control strategy used by manufacturers is found to be beneficial for mitigating port disruption risks.