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1.
There is a growing interest in the application of the machine learning techniques in predicting the motorcycle crash severity. This is partly due to a progress in autonomous vehicles technology, and machine learning technique, which as a main component of autonomous vehicle could be implemented for traffic safety enhancement. Wyoming's motorcycle crash fatalities constitute a concern since the count of riders being killed in motorcycle crashes in 2014 was 11% of the total road fatalities in the state. The first step of crash reduction could be achieved through identification of contributory factors to crashes. This could be accomplished by using a right model with high accuracy in predicting crashes. Thus, this study adopted random forest, support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines and binary logistic regression techniques to predict the injury severity outcomes of motorcycle crashes. Even though researchers applied all the aforementioned techniques to model motorcycle injury severities, a comparative analysis to assess the predictive power of such modeling frameworks is limited. Hence, this study contributes to the road safety literature by comparing the performance of the discussed techniques. In this study, Wyoming's motorcycle crash injury severities are modeled as functions of the characteristics that give rise to crashes. Before conducting any analyses, feature reduction was used to identify a best number of predictors to be included in the model. Also to have an unbiased estimation of the performance of different machine learning techniques, 5-fold cross-validation was used for model performance evaluation. Two measure, Area under the curve (AUC), and confusion matrix were used to compare different models' performance. The machine learning results indicate that random forest model outperformed the other models with the least misclassification and higher AUC. It was also revealed that a dichotomous response variable, with fatality and incapacitation injury in one category, along with all other categories in another group would result in a lower misclassification rate than a polychotomous response variable. This might result from the nature of motorcycle crashes, lacking a protection compared with passenger cars, preventing machine learning technique to get trained properly. Moreover, the most important variables identified by the random forest model are those related to the operating speed, resentful other party, traffic volume, truck traffic volume, riding under the influence, horizontal curvature, wide roadway with more than two lanes and rider's age.  相似文献   

2.
Many road crashes that occur in school zones involve child pedestrians. Research has identified three contributing factors to road crashes, namely child behaviour, driver behaviour, and the environment. This study aims to identify critical beliefs that influence motorcyclist's intention to comply with the Malaysian school zone speed limit (SZSL). 159 Malaysian motorcyclists who have travel experience in school zones during school hours and non-school hours were recruited by using purposive sampling. Participants responded to a survey distributed by enumerators in public places and house-to-house survey conducted in Kedah, Malaysia. Step-by-step correlation and regression analysis were used to identify the motorcyclists' critical beliefs. The results identified that motorcyclists' beliefs of the community expectation for them to comply and that complying with the speed limit in school zones may reduce risk of crashes with school children were the critical beliefs. In addition, the observation of many motorcyclists in the school zone was also identified as critical beliefs influencing motorcyclists' intention to comply with the SZSL. The practical relevance of this study is to combine a public awareness campaign and safety education for the motorcyclists together with an enforcement method to reinforce motorcyclists' compliance with the SZSL. Additionally, to increase the awareness level among motorcyclists, traffic control devices, such as flashing lights and yellow lines could be implemented.  相似文献   

3.
Thailand was classified as a middle-income country and ranked second highest in terms of road traffic fatality rate in the world in 2015. By 2018, this ranking went up to ninth in world which may be because of various earnest safety policies implementation, supporting road safety research and establishing a road safety directing center. However, crash fatality rate has considerably remained high until recent year, indicating a clear need for further related research. Considering severity of the crashes, the majority of fatal crashes involved the motorcycle road user. Therefore, motorcycle crashes are important issues and should be considered to mitigate fatality due to immoderate proportion of motorcycle road user and motorcyclist fatality. This study aims to identify factors that influence the severity of motorcycle accidents on Thailand's arterial roads by employing ordered logistic regression and multiple correspondence analysis. The results demonstrated that although both analyses were relatively different, they provided similar results. Age, road lanes, and helmet wearing were significant factors that influenced the severity of motorcycle accidents. The results could serve as reference for planning strategies or organizing campaigns to reduce and prevent death owing to road traffic accidents, which may enhance the overall image of road traffic safety in Thailand.  相似文献   

4.
In spite of enormous improvements in vehicle safety, roadway design, and operations, there is still an excessive amount of traffic crashes resulting in injuries and major productivity losses. Despite the many studies on factors of crash frequency and injury severity, there is still further research to be conducted. Tree and utility pole/other pole related (TUOP) crashes present approximately 12 to 15% of all roadway departure (RwD) fatal crashes in the U.S. The count of TUOP crashes comprise nearly 22% of all fatal crashes in Louisiana. From 2010 to 2016, there were 55,857 TUOP crashes reported in Louisiana. Individually examining each of these crash reports is not a realistic option to investigate crash factors. Therefore, this study employed text mining and interpretable machine learning (IML) techniques to analyze all TUOP crashes (with available crash narratives) that occurred in Louisiana from 2010 to 2016. This study has two major goals: 1) to develop a framework for applying machine learning models to classify injury levels from unstructured textual content, and 2) to apply an IML framework that provides probability measures of keywords and their association with the injury classification. The present study employed three machine learning algorithms in the classification of injury levels based on the crash narrative data. Of the used modeling techniques, the eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model shows better performance, with accuracy ranging from 0.70 to 24% for the training data and from 0.30% to 16% for the test data.  相似文献   

5.
Motorcycle injuries have caused serious implications for public health and national economies in many ASEAN countries. Drivers' lack of road safety awareness and low level of voluntary compliance hinder the promotion of traffic safety. Against this background, the Vietnamese government cooperated with motorcycle manufacturers in a wide range of educational activities. This study evaluates the effectiveness of cross-sector collaborative education programs implemented in Vietnam through a series of statistical analyses. Utilizing a sample of 600 respondents, we focus on the educational effects on riders' attitudes, behaviors, accident prevention, and riders' psychological changes after participating in safety activities. The results show that the effectiveness of rider training differed depending on riders' experience. Motorcyclists' improvement in risk awareness mainly results from the enhancement of safety awareness. The structural model revealed that safety activities have positive effects on motorcyclists' riding confidence, safety awareness, joy and comfort while riding, independence and freedom in daily life, and perspective-taking abilities. Altruistic motivation is suggested as the key factor to encourage motorcyclists' safe riding, highlighting the importance of building up traffic moral and expanding traffic safety culture across the country. With an attempt to find out the insufficient and missing content from the present training programs, this study seeks to inform policy decisions on accident prevention as well as promote motorcyclists' well-being based on the sustainable motorcycle culture in ASEAN countries.  相似文献   

6.
This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00 am to 6 am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70 km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7 pm to 12 pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70 km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.  相似文献   

7.
This paper focuses on identifying crash risk factors associated with injury severity of teen drivers. Crash data obtained from the Highway Safety and Information System (HSIS) for the entire state of North Carolina, for years 2011 to 2013, was used for analysis and modeling. Among all the crashes during the study period, a total of 62,990 crashes involving teen drivers (15 to 19?years) were analyzed. A partial proportionality odds model was developed to identify factors contributing to injury severity of teen drivers. The results obtained indicate that teen drivers driving sports utility vehicles and pickup trucks are more likely to be severely injured when compared to teen drivers driving passenger cars. Teen drivers are more likely to be severely injured on weekdays, particularly during peak hours. The chances of teen drivers getting involved in severe injury crashes on Tuesdays and Fridays is higher when compared to Sundays. Age, gender, road configuration, terrain, adverse weather condition, and access control are observed to have a significant effect on teen driver's injury severity.  相似文献   

8.
Despite recent efforts to improve work zone safety, the frequency and severity of crashes at work zones are still considerably high. The effect of work zones on traffic safety can be exacerbated by adverse weather conditions. As an example, a sudden reduction in visibility may intensify the severity of work zone crashes. There is a lack of studies that strive to gain a good understanding of the effect of weather on the severity of work zone crashes. In this study, an Ordered Probit Model was developed to identify factors affecting the severity of work zone crashes in different spatial, temporal, and environmental conditions in Washington state using five-year of work zone-related crashes (2009–2013). The interesting findings of this study showed that weather and lighting conditions are among the most important factors influencing the severity of crashes at work zones. Lack of daylight was found to be a determining factor in increasing the severity of work zone crashes, specifically, during dusk and dawn. It was also found that although drivers have less severe work zone-related crashes in adverse weather conditions, the interactions between adverse weather conditions and other contributing factors might increase the severity of work zone crashes. The results of this study will help traffic engineers to design effective safety countermeasures considering different contributing factors including the weather and lighting conditions in the work zone planning and installation stages to prevent safety deficiencies.  相似文献   

9.
Extremely serious traffic crashes, defined as having a death toll of two and greater than two, have become a serious safety concern on urban roadways in Louisiana. This study examined the different contributing factors of these crashes to determine significant trends and patterns. We collected traffic crash data from Louisiana during the period of 2013 to 2017 and found that a total of 72 extremely serious crashes (around 2% of all traffic fatalities) occurred on Louisiana urban roadway networks. As crash data contain an enormous list of contributing factors, there was an issue of ‘more features than data points’ in solving the research problem. Most of these variables are categorial in nature. We selected a dimension reduction tool called Taxicab Correspondence Analysis (TCA) to investigate the complex interaction between multiple factors under a two-dimensional map. Findings of the study reveal several key clusters of attributes that show patterns of association between different crash attributes. The conclusions of this study are exploratory, and the results can help in better visualizing the association between key attributes of crashes. The findings have potentials in designing suitable countermeasures to reduce extremely serious crashes.  相似文献   

10.
台湾地区近年致力于交通安全改善之相关执行计划,企图透过教育、工程与执法之3E手段来降低交通事故数量与严重程度,然而思考如何将机动车分流落实到工程改善手段中亦是思考重点之一,而此分流措施必须奠基于有无采取机动车分流与机动车事故数量则是必须具备高度相关才有落实之可行性.因此,透过灰关联分析探讨台湾地区彰化市5条道路之基础设施与机动车事故的关联程度,其中路肩宽度与障碍物,以及机动车分流长度之灰关联度均为影响机动车事故的重要因素,因此考量是否有采行机动车分流措施则是与交通安全有绝对关系,未来则可依据事故类型加以评估是否落实机动车分流措施.   相似文献   

11.
为了明晰公路隧道交通事故严重程度的影响因素,在分析了16条公路隧道3年内发生的296起交通事故的空间特性、事故形态及其发生原因的基础上,以交通事故严重程度为因变量,将其分为仅财产损失、轻伤、重伤或死亡事故3个等级,从人、车和隧道行车环境3个方面选择了14个交通事故严重程度的潜在影响因素,分别采用有序Logit模型和部分优势比模型建立交通事故严重程度分析模型,并采用Brant检验判断比例优势假设。研究结果表明:与公路隧道交通事故严重程度显著相关的有4个自变量,分别为是否涉及大货车、事故涉及车辆数、事故发生时间和天气因素,其中是否涉及大货车、事故发生时间和天气因素3个自变量满足比例优势假设,而事故涉及车辆数不满足比例优势假设;对于部分优势比模型来说,涉及大货车的事故发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比不涉及大货车的事故分别增加10.2%和3.4%,多车事故发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比单车事故分别增加1.9%和5.9%,夜间发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比白天分别增加5.6%和1.7%,非雨天发生轻伤事故、重伤或死亡事故的概率比雨天分别增加4.5%和1.5%。  相似文献   

12.
高速公路隧道构造特殊且通行环境复杂,因而通常事故多发。为探究高速公路隧道路段与开放路段事故影响因素和严重程度致因机理的差异,采集沪昆高速邵怀段2011—2016年期间1 537起事故为研究样本;以事故发生路段为响应变量构建逻辑回归模型,解释各种风险因素对事故发生路段倾向性的影响差异;分别针对隧道路段与开放路段建立模型研究事故伤害严重程度的影响因素。建立二元Logit回归模型分析事故的发生倾向性和2类路段的事故严重程度的影响因素;采用随机参数Logit模型以反映异质性条件对参数的影响。统计表明:与疲劳驾驶、未保持安全距离相关的事故发生在隧道路段的概率更高,其事故发生概率分别是开放路段的2.373和2.482倍;与隧道路段事故严重程度正相关的因素包括下坡(坡度2%以上)、夏季和超速行驶,其中下坡(坡度2%以上)段的严重事故发生的概率为上坡(坡度2%以上)的3.397倍,夏季的严重事故发生概率为秋季的3.951倍,超速行驶相关的严重事故发生概率为其他不当驾驶行为的4.242倍;与开放路段事故严重程度正相关的因素包括超速行驶和疲劳驾驶,其中超速行驶相关的严重事故概率是其他不当驾驶行为的2.713倍,疲劳驾驶相关的严重事故概率是其他不当驾驶行为的4.802倍。研究表明,山区高速公路隧道路段与开放路段的事故发生概率及其严重程度的影响因素存在一定的差异性,研究结论可为山区高速公路差异管理方案制定提供依据。   相似文献   

13.
Motorcycle crashes are documented in Thailand's national records but are underreported and lacking detail. In-depth motorcycle crash data, collected by Thailand Accident Research Center (TARC), contains a smaller number of motorcycle crashes but more detail. However, to draw conclusions at a national level, representativeness of the TARC in-depth data is currently unknown, and the correction of sampling biases may be required. In this study, the Capture-recapture method was used to examine the underreporting in the national crash data (from the government insurance company). It was found that 69% of fatal and 70% of non-fatal injuries were underreported, respectively. The in-depth crash data was found to be biased. The weighting methods post-stratification and iterative proportional fitting were applied to compensate for the bias and are shown to improve the representativeness of the in-depth motorcycle crash data. Weighted in-depth crash data appears to be suitable to draw conclusions on motorcyclist safety in Thailand.  相似文献   

14.
A roadway departure (RwD) crash is defined as a crash that occurs after a vehicle crosses an edge line or a center line, or otherwise leaves the designated travel path. RwD crashes account for approximately 50% of all traffic fatalities in the U.S. Additionally, crashes related to roadside fixed objects such as trees, utility poles, or other poles (TUOP) make up 12–15% of all fatal RwD crashes in the U.S. Data spanning over seven years (2010–2016) shows that TUOP crashes account for approximately 22% of all fatal crashes in Louisiana, which is significantly higher than the national statistic. This study aims to determine the effect of crash, geometric, environmental, and vehicle characteristics on TUOP crashes by applying the fast and frugal tree (FFT) heuristics algorithm to Louisiana crash data. FFT identifies five major cues or variable threshold attributes that contribute significantly to predicting TUOP crashes. These cues include posted speed limit, primary contributing factor, highway type, weather, and locality type. The balanced accuracy is around 56% for both training and test data. The current model shows higher accuracies compared to machine learning models (e.g., support vector machine, CART). The present findings emphasize the importance of a comprehensive understanding of factors that influence TUOP crashes. The insights from this study can help data-driven decision making at both planning and operation levels.  相似文献   

15.
Bus right hook (BRH) crashes at intersections are one of the most common types of crashes for bus carriers, which accounted for as high as 16% of fatal and injury crashes involving large buses at intersections in Taiwan. A BRH crash occurs when a bus and another vehicle traveling in the same direction head into an intersection, but the bus driver makes a right turn across the path of the through-moving vehicle, and both vehicles collide. This study responds to the research needs to identity factors associated with BRH crashes by utilizing in-vehicle data recorder (IVDR) data. A four step analysis procedure was developed, including (1) video data coding, (2) crash sequence analysis to identify crash contributing factors, (3) a case-control study to examine the relationship between the crash contributing factors and crash occurrence, and (4) modeling crash risk in terms of the crash contributing factors to better understand the crash generating process. This study first identified the existence of driver unattended time as the time between when the driver last checked the right back mirror to finally steering for a right turn, indicating the time period wherein the driver did not track the through vehicle on the right side using the right back mirror. It was found that BRH crashes could be attributed to the concurrence of unattended time and the speed difference between the bus and through vehicle. Several recommendations are discussed based on the results to further develop countermeasures to reduce this type of crash.  相似文献   

16.
Nearly 499,000 motor vehicle crashes involving trucks were reported across the United States in 2018, out of which 22% resulted in fatalities and injuries. Given the growing economy and demand for trucking in the future, it is crucial to identify the risk factors to understand where and why the likelihood of getting involved in a severe or moderate injury crash with a truck is higher. The focus of this research, therefore, is on developing a methodology, capturing and integrating data, exploring, and identifying risk factors associated with surrounding land use and demographic characteristics in addition to crash, driver, and on-network characteristics by modeling injury severity of crashes involving trucks. Crash data for Mecklenburg County in North Carolina from 2013 to 2017 was used to develop partial proportional odds model and identify risk factors influencing injury severity of crashes involving trucks. The findings indicate that dark lighting condition, inclement weather condition, the presence of double yellow or no-passing zone, road sections with speed limit >40 mph and curves, and driver fatigue, impairment, and inattention have a significant influence on injury severity of crashes involving trucks. These outcomes indicate the need for effective geometric design and improved visibility to reduce the injury severity of crashes involving trucks. The likelihood of a severe or moderate injury crash involving a truck is also high in areas with high employment, government, light commercial, and light industrial land uses. The findings can be used to identify potential risk areas, proactively plan and prioritize the allocation of resources to improve safety of transportation system users in these areas.  相似文献   

17.
This paper presents an evaluation of risk factors for highway crashes under mixed traffic conditions. The basis of selecting study sites was abutting land use, roadway, and traffic characteristics. Accordingly, the study selected thirteen segments on the existing highway network in the state of West Bengal of India, covering a wide spectrum of such road attributes. A systematic investigation based on site-specific accident data to capture the highway sections' safety features revealed that the crash rate has steadily increased for years with traffic regardless of roadway category and conditions. A number of risk factors that affect road accidents were identified; they are mid-block access, pavement and shoulder conditions, vehicle involvement, time of day, and road configuration, i.e., two and multi-lane. The empirical observation indicates that the crash rate is relatively lower on multi-lane highways; however, the severity of any crash on such a road is relatively high. Notably, the crash frequencies on such roads are less during daylight hours due to the lane-based unidirectional traffic movement. This is quite the opposite during nighttime when drivers exhibit an inability to meet traffic contingencies, thereby increasing crash risk. The majority of crashes on two-lane highways are, on the other hand, due to unsafe driving manoeuvers. The study also observed that frequent mid-block accesses and poor shoulder conditions reduce scopes to rectify driving errors and increase crash risk as a consequence. The paper subsequently suggests proactive approaches to identify safety deficits at the time of planning and designing.  相似文献   

18.
Motor vehicles with advanced safety technologies are rapidly entering the marketplace and the impact of new features are transforming safety on roadways. Among the several safety related technologies currently available in the market, this paper aims to forecast the reduction in crashes with gradual adoption of vehicles with lane departure prevention (LDP) technology. Crash data for the state of Alabama from 2014 to 2016 were used to evaluate the safety benefits of LDP technology. In Alabama, 75% of single-vehicle crashes are the result of lane departure. A 20% effective LDP system implies, whereby an LDP system would prevent a vehicle from exiting a roadway on 20% of applicable instances, would reduce 2.7% and 16.4% of the relevant single-vehicle lane departure (SVLD) crashes by 2020 and 2045 respectively. With increase in the effectiveness of the technology, a greater reduction in crashes was observed. With 100% effectiveness, this technology can prevent 66.5% of SVLD crashes by year 2045. This study presents the first estimations of the number of crashes that could be reduced using LDP and therefore could have significant impacts on public and industry adoption rates of the technology. The results of this study influence policy making and regulatory approaches to improving motor vehicle safety and further recommend education and outreach activities to increase awareness on the benefits of LDP technology.  相似文献   

19.
Pedestrian fatality and injury is one of the most concerning issues around the globe. The predictors for such mishaps have been investigated in the developed countries through econometric models and are proven useful techniques. Such studies in the context of developing countries, especially for urban cities, are however still very scarce. Using five years reported pedestrian crash data, this study looks into the performance of three statistical models - Multinomial Logit (MNL), Ordered Logit (OL) and Partial Proportional Odds (PPO) model while examining the impact of various attributes related to pedestrian crashes severity outcomes for Dhaka metropolitan city in Bangladesh. The comparative analysis reveals that the performance of the PPO model is relatively better for the available dataset in terms of identifying critical risk factors. Undivided roadway, heavy vehicles, unfit vehicles, adult drivers with no seat belt use, young and older pedestrians, pedestrian road crossing action are found to be associated with higher probability of fatal injuries. In contrast, one-way traffic movement, daytime, motorcycles and mid-aged pedestrians decrease the likelihood of fatal injury. Based on these identified risk factors, a combined 3-E approach has been suggested to reduce the severity levels of pedestrian in the event of crash occurrence.  相似文献   

20.
Risk of pedestrian-vehicle crashes increased with distraction of pedestrians at roadway crossings. Aims of the study included analysing distracted pedestrian crossing behavior, identifying factors that influence pedestrian crossing speed at a midblock crosswalk, and determining the influence of road cross-section (RCS) on pedestrian walking speed.Three cities in Oregon State in the USA were included in the study: Corvallis, Albany, and Eugene. A combination of digital video and researcher field notes were used to obtain the data at each site. A total of 1045 pedestrian crossings from 23 midblock crossings were observed and analysed to determine the association of distraction type, road cross-section, and other in situ factors with pedestrian walking speed. Data analysis was conducted in two stages. First, the effect of each distraction type (looking at a handheld device, talking on a cell phone, wearing headphones, walking in a pair, walking in a group, and other distractions) on the pedestrian walking speed was examined. The results showed that average walking speed was 4.8 ft./s (1.46 m/s). Pedestrians walking with headphones crossed more quickly (0.91 ft./s) (0.28 m/s) than those with no distractions (5.14 ft./s) (1.57 m/s). In addition, talking on a cell phone was not significantly correlated with walking speed. Moreover, the other four distraction types were associated with decreasing the walking speed by 0.29 ft./s (0.09 m/s) to 0.83 ft./s (0.25 m/s). Second, the influence of pedestrian distraction, crosswalk configuration, land use, compliance rate, and pedestrian demographics on the pedestrian walking speed were examined in this study. Findings indicated that distracted pedestrian in two road cross-sections would require more crossing time than an elderly pedestrian. Pedestrian safety is a key concern in transportation research, and improved understanding of the factors contributing to pedestrian fatalities could enable safer roadways to be designed.  相似文献   

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