Modeling two-way stop-controlled intersection crashes with zero-inflated models on Louisiana rural two-lane highways

Intersection safety continues to be a crucial issue throughout the United States. In 2016, 27% of the 37,461 traffic fatalities on U.S. roadways occurred at or near intersections. Nearly 70% of intersection-related fatalities occurred at unsignalized intersections. At such intersections, vehicles stopping or slowing to turn create speed differentials between vehicles traveling in the same direction. This is particularly problematic on two-lane highways. Research was performed to analyze safety performance for intersections on rural, two-lane roadways, with stop control on the minor roadway. Roadway, traffic, and crash data were collected from 4148 stop-controlled intersections of all 64 Parishes (counties) statewide in Louisiana, for the period of 2013 to 2017. Four count approaches, Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) were used to model the number of intersection crashes for different severity levels. The results indicate that ZIP models provide a better fit than all other models. In addition to traffic volume, larger curve radii of major and minor roads and wider lane widths of major roads led to significantly smaller crash occurrences. However, higher speed limits of major roads led to significantly greater crash occurrences. Four-leg stop-controlled intersections have 35% greater total crashes, 49% greater fatal and injury crashes, and 25% greater property damage only (PDO) crashes, relative to three-leg intersections.     

基于冲突极值模型的非常规信号交叉口安全评价

为了评估非常规信号交叉口交通安全,提出了基于冲突极值模型的横断面分析方法.利用计算机视频技术提取了南京市3个信号交叉口(1个设施组和2个参照组)96h的交通冲突数据和交通流数据,构建了包含数据层[处理层[先验层的3层贝叶斯超阈值冲突极值模型,利用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗仿真方法对模型参数进行估计,采用预测交通事故和比值比计算...     

零截尾负二项模型在交叉口事故预测中的应用

事故预测模型是广泛采用的交通安全定量分析方法，但往往要求具有完备的道路、交通和事故数据。然而，基础数据相对不健全是包括中国在内的发展中国家交通安全管理面临的主要问题之一，例如仅有发生事故路段或者交叉口的相关属性特征（即零截尾数据）。为此，为确保基础数据不全的情况下交叉口事故预测的准确性，提出了基于零截尾的广义负二项回归模型；采集了246个非信号控制交叉口的交通与事故数据，采用传统负二项模型和新提出的零截尾负二项模型对全数据和零截尾数据分别进行对比分析。结果表明：在针对截尾数据的分析中，零截尾负二项模型明显优于传统负二项模型，并且零截尾负二项模型的参数估计值与基于全数据的负二项基准模型的估计值非常接近；在所有模型中，交叉口的主路交通量和支路交通量与交叉口的安全性之间存在较大的正关联。此外，同等条件下，十字形交叉口的事故数量高于T形交叉口的事故数量；利用传统负二项分布模型分析截尾数据得到的事故预测模型与使用全数据的基准模型有显著差异，其结果不可靠；采用零截尾负二项分布模型的参数结果与基准模型基本一致，截尾模型的置信区间包含基准模型相应的参数估计值。当受条件所限无法获取全部数据时，可以考虑使用零截尾负二项模型进行安全分析。     

基于交通冲突分析的公路信号交叉口安全评价

交通冲突分析技术是以大样本、快速、定量研究评价交通安全现状与改善效果的特点而异于事故统计评价方法。文中通过对信号平面交叉口道路交条件及交通冲突数据的分析研究,引入综合影响系数,运用灰色关联理论对交通冲突影响因素进行分析,建立了信号平面交叉口道路交通条件与交通冲突率的关系模型,并提出了基于交通冲突的信号平面交叉口交通安全评价的综合影响系数方法。根据交叉口的交通流量、相交道路流量比、交通组成及左转车比例等因素,确定对交通冲突率的综合影响系数K,进而得出交叉口的安全水平等级。     

四路信号控制交叉口交通事故预测模型研究

通过对北京郊区四路信号控制交叉口进行实地调查,在获取事故数据及道路几何要素、环境要素、交通流要素等大量数据的基础上,利用相关性分析寻找出与交通事故相关性显著的影响因素,并采用AIC原则分析法确定模型形式,分别建立了四路信号控制交叉口死亡人数、受伤人数、事故次数预测模型。模型的建立有助于对交叉口进行安全分析诊断及预测交叉口的交通事故发生规律。     

What affects pedestrian crossing difficulty at urban intersections in a developing country?

In developing countries, road traffic crashes involving pedestrians have become a foremost concern. At present, road safety assessment plans and selection of interventions are primarily restricted to traditional approaches that depend on the investigations of historical crash data. However, in developing countries such as India, the availability, consistency, and accuracy of crash data are major concerns. In contrast, proactive approaches such as studying road users' risk perception have emerged as a substitute method of examining potential risk factors. An individual's risk perception offers vital information on probable crash risk, which may be beneficial in detecting high-risk locations and major causes of crashes. Since the pedestrian fatality risk is not uniform across the urban road network level, it may be expected that pedestrians' perceived risk measured in terms of “crossing difficulty” would also vary across the sites. In this perspective, the present paper establishes a mathematical association between the pedestrians' perceived “crossing difficulty” and actual crashes. The model outcome confirms that pedestrians' perceived crossing difficulty is a good surrogate of fatal pedestrian crashes at the intersection level in Kolkata City, India. Subsequently, to examine the impact of traffic exposures, road infrastructure, land use, spatial factors, and pedestrian-level attributes on pedestrians' “crossing difficulty”; a set of Ordered Logit models are developed. The model outcomes show that high vehicle and pedestrian volume, vehicular speed, absence of designated bus stop, the presence of inaccessible pedestrian crosswalk, on-street parking, lack of signalized control (for both vehicle and pedestrian), inadequate sight distance, land use pattern, slum population, pedestrian-vehicular post encroachment time, waiting time before crossing, road width, and absence of police enforcement at an intersection significantly and positively increase pedestrian's crossing difficulty at urban intersections. To end, the model findings are advantageously utilized to develop a set of countermeasures across 3E's of road safety.     

基于GIS分析的深圳市道路交通事故空间分布特征研究

掌握城市道路交通事故空间分布特征是城市道路交通安全管理的重要基础。基于深圳市2014~2016年的道路交通事故数据,首先应用地理编码方法对原始事故记录进行空间定位,形成事故的空间分布。其次针对考虑/不考虑路网密度的2种情况,应用密度分析方法对道路交通事故多发的区域和事故严重程度较高的区域进行鉴别,比较2种情况下区域分布的差异并分析造成这种差异的可能原因。最后利用异常点分析和热点分析2种空间聚类分析模型对事故严重程度较高的区域进行进一步鉴别,并对密度分析和聚类分析2种方法得到的结果进行了比较。密度分析结果表明：就事故频度而言,深圳市中心城区单位面积上的交通事故频度较高,而郊区单位长度道路上的交通事故分布更为密集;就事故严重程度而言,郊区的交通事故平均严重程度高于市中心区域。造成上述差异的原因可能与郊区道路限速较高等因素有关。聚类分析结果与密度分析结果相近,在郊区形成了高严重程度的事故聚类,而在中心城区形成了低严重程度的事故聚类,说明郊区的交通事故严重程度总体高于市中心区域。从2种方法的比较来看,密度分析简单易行,有助于交通管理部门对城市交通事故空间分布特征直观快速的了解;聚类分析可精确到事故点,为精细化的交通安全管理工作提供支撑。研究结果表明基于密度分析和聚类分析的研究方法对于确定道路交通事故空间分布特征有良好的作用。     

信号交叉口行车风险场建立及车辆通行行为优化

随着汽车逐步向智能化、网联化发展,智能网联车辆逐步进入实际应用阶段。进行智能网联车辆的通行行为优化,对提升驾驶安全性和行车效率,避免事故发生和交通拥堵至关重要。车辆在通过交叉口时将受到很多环境及运动因素的影响,而现有的通行优化模型难以准确表达各类因素共同作用下的行驶环境。为此,基于风险场理论建立由环境场和运动场组成的信号交叉口行车风险场,表征信号交叉口中每点的实时行车风险程度,从而引导车辆驶向风险值低点,并提供下一步长的位移及速度指引,实现车辆的动态轨迹优化及速度控制。典型场景下的仿真结果表明：在优化模型的控制下单车的信号交叉口通行效率明显提升,其中直行方向车辆单车平均通行效率提升最高,平均提升6.35%,通过对交叉口面积内所有车辆进行通行行为优化,交叉口通行效率提升了9.3%,这表明所建模型可以准确表达交叉口行车环境并优化车辆通行行为。研究结论可应用于自动驾驶车辆的交叉口通行控制,并为网联环境下的行车环境表达和安全驾驶控制提供模型基础。     

信号交叉口行人安全岛设计

以北京等大城市信号交叉口行人过街安全问题为研究对象,对40个未设置行人安全岛和5个设置行人安全岛的信号交叉口进行了现场观测,研究分析了为方便行人二次过街、在道路中间分隔带设置行人安全岛的必要性,并提出了一种适合我国国情的安全岛设计型式。     

人机混驾环境下无信号交叉口自动驾驶汽车左转运动规划研究

为了使自动驾驶汽车在人机混驾环境下能安全、高效地左转通过无信号交叉口，在借鉴人类驾驶人左转时会对周围车辆驾驶意图进行提前预判的基础上，提出了一种基于周围车辆驾驶意图预测的自动驾驶汽车左转运动规划模型。首先将无信号交叉口处周围车辆的驾驶意图分为左转、右转、直行3种类型，利用相关向量机预测周围车辆驾驶意图，以概率形式输出意图预测结果并实时更新，进一步界定自动驾驶汽车与周围车辆的潜在冲突区域并判断是否存在时空冲突；接着，在充分考虑他车速度、航向及车辆到达冲突区域边界距离的基础上建立基于部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程的自动驾驶汽车左转运动规划模型，生成一系列期望加速度；最后，基于Prescan-Simulink联合仿真平台搭建无信号交叉口仿真场景，对所提左转运动规划方法进行仿真验证，将基于博弈论的运动规划方法、基于人工势场理论的运动规划方法与所提出的方法进行比较，并选取行进比例达到1所用的时间和碰撞次数作为评价指标。研究结果表明：基于相关向量机的驾驶意图预测方法可在自动驾驶汽车到达交叉口之前准确预测出他车驾驶意图；基于部分可观测马尔可夫决策过程的左转运动规划方法能够通过速度调整策略实现人机混驾环境下自动驾驶汽车与周围车辆在无信号交叉口处的交互；不同算法对比效果表明，所提左转运动规划方法在自动驾驶汽车与不同数量周围车辆交互的仿真场景下均可有效避免碰撞事故发生并提高自动驾驶汽车左转通过无信号交叉口的效率。     

节能导向的信号交叉口生态驾驶策略研究

为解决信号交叉口区域车辆频繁启停及怠速停车造成的燃油浪费和污染物排放问题,研究了以节能为导向的信号交叉口的生态驾驶策略问题.借助交叉口区域的V2I通信系统获得车辆自身定位和运动状态数据,以及信号灯状态与配时信息,对车辆所处车速引导场景及可通行性进行判定.对各场景下车辆时空运动轨迹进行分析,综合考虑交叉口上下游的燃油消耗,以平均每公里油耗最小建立统一的优化目标函数,求得生态驾驶轨迹最优解,以向驾驶员提供车速建议.利用M atlab开展的随机仿真实验表明,与不采用生态驾驶车速引导相比,采用生态驾驶车速引导至少可降低10% 以上的燃油消耗.对于划分的6种车速引导场景而言,最优生态驾驶策略在场景2下的节油效果最为显著,可达到30% ~60%;其次是场景4,可达到25% ~50%;在场景3和场景5中表现略差.从节约能源的角度而言,车辆在通过信号交叉口时应尽量避免停车等待,防止发动机长时间空转造成的燃油浪费,必要时可采取适当加减速的方式通过交叉口.      

Using on-board video data for safety analysis – An analysis of right hook crashes involving large buses at signalized intersections

Bus right hook (BRH) crashes at intersections are one of the most common types of crashes for bus carriers, which accounted for as high as 16% of fatal and injury crashes involving large buses at intersections in Taiwan. A BRH crash occurs when a bus and another vehicle traveling in the same direction head into an intersection, but the bus driver makes a right turn across the path of the through-moving vehicle, and both vehicles collide. This study responds to the research needs to identity factors associated with BRH crashes by utilizing in-vehicle data recorder (IVDR) data. A four step analysis procedure was developed, including (1) video data coding, (2) crash sequence analysis to identify crash contributing factors, (3) a case-control study to examine the relationship between the crash contributing factors and crash occurrence, and (4) modeling crash risk in terms of the crash contributing factors to better understand the crash generating process. This study first identified the existence of driver unattended time as the time between when the driver last checked the right back mirror to finally steering for a right turn, indicating the time period wherein the driver did not track the through vehicle on the right side using the right back mirror. It was found that BRH crashes could be attributed to the concurrence of unattended time and the speed difference between the bus and through vehicle. Several recommendations are discussed based on the results to further develop countermeasures to reduce this type of crash.     

倒计时信号灯对交叉口交通安全影响研究

针对倒计时装置对信号交叉口交通安全的影响进了研究。采集了9个信号交叉口共计13个进口道的相关数据,以红黄灯时段车辆通过停车线情况及交通冲突数作为替代安全评价指标,对比设置及未设置信号倒计时装置的交叉口进口道数据,量化了信号倒计时装置对城市信号交叉口交通安全的影响。结果表明,在交叉口直行和左转2个方向上,受到信号倒计时装置影响,车辆在交叉口进口道处的冒险通行频次以及交通冲突数均有显著提升,对交叉口交通安全水平存在负面影响,建议在工程应用中谨慎使用信号倒计时装置。      

Behavioral factors of motorcyclists in right-turn movements at unsignalized intersections: An insight from Yogyakarta,Indonesia

Conflicting actions of motorcyclists making right-turn movements (RTM) pose a considerable risk of accidents, which is of great concern when attempting to augment the level of safety at unsignalized intersections. This study was conducted to identify the habits of motorcyclists in RTMs, including normal RTM, weaving/merging RTM, and opposite indirect RTM when crossing unsignalized intersections. The behavioral factors were affected by gender, passenger status, motorcycle type, STOP factor, speed, travel time, and lane width of major and minor roads, which were tested using multinomial and nested logit models on 2358 motorcyclists. The results indicated that all of the observed variables significantly influenced motorcyclists' behaviors at unsignalized intersections, excepting the variable of travel time. The factors of speed and lane width on minor roads significantly correlated to motorcyclist behaviors during weaving and merging RTM only. The logit model reveals that female motorcyclists tend to make normal RTMs. The study also proposes ideal and practical recommendations, such as stop and speed regulations, channelization, number of lanes and lane widths, and maneuver markers, in order to address dangerous behaviors, in particular weaving and merging and opposite indirect-type RTMs.     

考虑礼让行人的信号交叉口配时优化方法

为提高机动车礼让行人背景下的人车通行效率,研究了基于叠加相位设计的信号交叉口配时优化方法.以西安市1个典型交叉口为例,分析机动车与过街行人冲突情况;在Webster配时模型的基础上,提出叠加相位设计与人车冲突时空分离策略相结合的信号配时优化方法,并给出行人信号早启时间、人车绿时分离设置阈值的计算方法;运用VISSIM仿...     

北京市信号交叉口行人过街忍耐时间研究

行人交通是信号交叉口交通的重要组成部分.目前信号交叉口的规划设计优先考虑机动车效率,为了保障机动车的通行效率,北京市多数行人过街环境遭到破坏,"中国式过马路"应运而生.结合当前北京市交通的特点,以红灯期间到达信号交叉口人行横道等待区的行人为研究对象,运用视频调查和人工调查相结合的方法获取北京市不同影响因素下行人过街忍耐时间的基础数据,采集了9554个行人过街忍耐时间样本.建立信号交叉口行人过街忍耐时间的 Cox 风险回归模型,结果表明信号交叉口行人过街的最大忍耐时间是52.88 s,信号交叉口行人过街忍耐时间与温度、性别、年龄、出行时间、红灯时长、单位机动车流量、人行横道长度等影响因素有关,用地性质对信号交叉口行人过街忍耐时间的影响不显著.      

城市信号交叉口自行车及行人到达与释放规律

在我国城市交通管理中,对城市信号交叉口处机动车、自行车和行人的混合交通流的有效组织是交通通畅运行的关键。在交通调查的基础上,利用数理统计方法分析城市信号交叉口自行车及行人的到达与释放规律,提出城市信号交叉口自行车及行人的到达分布模型,对城市信号交叉口自行车流的释放饱和流率、释放速度和行人步速进行标定,并对信号交叉口自行车流及行人的交通特性形成原因进行分析。研究结果可应用于城市信号交叉口混合交通控制及管理。     

多相位信号交叉口微观仿真模型及控制系统研究

通过对信号交叉口车辆到达、排队、起动、减速、跟驰、避让等各种交通流微观运行特性的分析,建立了交叉口描述、车辆发生、车道选择、车辆运行等模型,提出了一种交叉口多相位信号控制方案仿真系统。该系统操作方便,界面形象丰富,扩展性强,有效地反映了交叉口交通流的随机性和复杂性,能用于交叉口仿真和优化控制。     

Hierarchical distributed coordination strategy of connected and automated vehicles at multiple intersections

In this paper, we present a hierarchical distributed coordination strategy for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) that are travelling through multiple unsignalized intersections. The control strategy focuses on the improvement of vehicle fuel efficiency and system mobility. In presence of wireless communication among the involved CAVs and the intersection controllers, our coordination strategy focuses on leading the CAVs travel through a road network without conventional traffic light control and ensuring collision avoidance at the intersection areas. We propose a three-layered coordination strategy in this paper. First, we evaluate the road desired average velocity considering both upstream and downstream traffic to speed up the traffic density balance. Second, the intersection controllers optimally assign reference velocity to each vehicle based on the minimization of velocity deviation from its current velocity and collision avoidance at the intersections. Finally, fast model predictive control (F-MPC) is applied for each vehicle to track their reference velocity in a computationally efficient manner. Two simulation scenarios with different difficulty levels have been implemented on a two-interconnected intersection network. Simulation results indicate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed method, as well as vehicle fuel efficiency and system mobility improvement.     

城市交叉口车路网联信息对青年驾驶人驾驶行为的影响分析

基于驾驶模拟器设计了城市道路信号和无信号交叉口场景下的模拟驾驶实验,研究网联信息的存在和内容对青年驾驶人工作负荷和操纵行为的影响.实验共包括被试26人,均为22～30岁的青年驾驶人.结果表明:对无信号交叉口(区分次干路直行车辆和主路对向左转车辆)或信号交叉口红灯时间即将结束时,网联信息可以显著降低青年驾驶人的工作负荷,...