Iterative methodology for response based analysis of an FPSO mooring system

Response based analysis (RBA) has been developed for prediction of extreme N-year return period responses and design metocean conditions of offshore structures. For applying the RBA, the behaviour of the offshore system subjected to a long history of metocean conditions needs to be predicted, and then, the probabilistic analysis is applied to estimate its long-term responses. Due to the large number of analysis cases required, the structural simulation is usually performed either by simplifying the structural model or by using computationally efficient tools, such as frequency-domain (FD) analysis. These approaches usually decrease the accuracy of predictions mainly when they are utilized for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, employing time-domain (TD) simulations leads to more accurate results but it is computationally expensive. Application of RBA for a weathervaning FPSO, which is the subject of the present study, makes TD analysis an essential requirement because of a highly nonlinear behaviour of the system. In the present study, an efficient methodology is proposed that aims at reducing the computational efforts of RBA by joint application of TD and FD simulations in combining the structural and statistical analyses through a single process, such that the number of time-consuming TD simulations is minimized. After initial screening using the results from FD simulations, the methodology identifies the response events (storms) that contribute the most to the N-year response and sets out an iterative process in which only those events that are most important are analysed by fully-coupled TD simulations. Within such events, a similar approach is also applied to intervals (sea states) where only the most contributing intervals are analysed in TD, and the remaining intervals are left for a less accurate FD analysis without sacrificing the overall accuracy. The proposed methodology provides a robust framework for distinguishing between “mild” and “severe” response events, without specifying any predefined limits for the metocean parameters or making a subjective judgement. Although it is developed for the mooring system of a weathervaning FPSO, it should also be applicable to any type of offshore structure and any structural response. This paper is the first part of the study and concentrates on the development of the efficient methodology to optimize the application of RBA to FPSO mooring systems, whilst its detailed application is subject of the second part of the study.     

Modified environmental contour method for predicting long-term extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines

Predicting extreme responses is very important in designing a bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines. The commonly used method that account for the variability of the response and the environmental conditions is the full long-term analysis (FLTA), which is accurate but time consuming. It is a direct integration of all the probability distribution of short-term extremes and the environmental conditions. Since the long-term extreme responses are usually governed by very few important environmental conditions, the long-term analysis can be greatly simplified if such conditions are identified. For offshore structures, one simplified method is the environmental contour method (ECM), which uses the short-term extreme probability distribution of important environmental conditions selected on the contour surface with the relevant return periods. However, because of the inherent difference of offshore wind turbines and ordinary offshore structures, especially their non-monotonic behavior of the responses under wind loads, ECM cannot be directly applied because the environmental condition it selects is not close to the actual most important one.The paper presents a modified environmental contour method (MECM) for bottom-fixed offshore wind turbine applications. It can identify the most important environmental condition that governs the long-term extreme. The method is tested on the NREL 5 MW wind turbine supported by a simplified jacket-type support structure. Compared to the results of FLTA, MECM yields accurate results and is shown to be an efficient and reliable method for the prediction of the extreme responses of bottom-fixed offshore wind turbines.     

基于响应分析的张力腿平台设计方法（英文）

The typical industry practice for Tension Leg Platform(TLP) design focuses on a conventional short-term design recipe, which assumes that an N-year design environment leads to an N-year response. In the response-based design method, the TLP is designed to withstand N-year responses rather than respond to N-year environmental conditions. In this paper, we present an overview and a general procedure for the response-based design method and use a case study to compare the critical TLP responses between the two methods. The results of our comparison show that the conventional short-term design method often contains an element of conservatism and that the response-based design method can reduce the design conditions and thereby achieve cost savings.     

Response-based analysis for Tension Leg Platform

The typical industry practice for Tension Leg Platform (TLP) design focuses on a conventional short-term design recipe, which assumes that an N-year design environment leads to an N-year response. In the response-based design method, the TLP is designed to withstand N-year responses rather than respond to N-year environmental conditions. In this paper, we present an overview and a general procedure for the response-based design method and use a case study to compare the critical TLP responses between the two methods. The results of our comparison show that the conventional short-term design method often contains an element of conservatism and that the response-based design method can reduce the design conditions and thereby achieve cost savings.     

Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.     

Hull-girder reliability of new generation oil tankers

A series of new generation oil tankers is presently under construction. These ships differ from traditional oil tankers by their unusual form and therefore direct hydrodynamic analysis is used to determine design vertical wave bending moments instead of adopting IACS rule values. The purpose of the paper is to quantify changes in hull-girder reliability resulting from the new design features. To achieve this, first-order reliability analysis is carried out with respect to ultimate collapse bending moment of the midship cross section of a new generation oil tanker and of a conventional “rule” designed oil tanker. The stochastic model of wave-induced bending moment is derived from direct hydrodynamic analysis performed according to IACS Recommendation No. 34 Standard Wave Data, Rev 1, 2000. The probability distribution of the still water bending moment is assumed based on the data from loading manuals. The model uncertainties of linear wave loads, non-linearity of the response as well as load combination factors are included in the reliability formulation. The reliability analysis is performed for three relevant loading conditions: full load, ballast and partial load and for two states of the hull: the “as-built” hull and “corroded” hull according to anticipated 20-year corrosion. One of the most interesting conclusions from the study is that the annual hull-girder reliability of new generation oil tanker is increased considerably compared to the conventional oil tanker. Sensitivity and parametric studies are performed with respect to random variables representing modelling uncertainties. The results of a sensitivity study enable sorting of pertinent variables according to their relative importance, while parametric study is used to quantify changes in the reliability indices for moderate variation of input parameters. Furthermore, some other results and discussions are presented pointing out the benefits of introducing the ship reliability methods in design practice, especially if this refers to new designs.     

波激振动和砰击颤振对大型油船疲劳强度影响研究

文章给出线性波激振动和砰击颤振引起的大型油船结构疲劳贡献度的计算方法。基于三维线性水弹性理论可计算得到包括刚体和2节点的振动模态下的垂向弯矩的传递函数,采用谱分析法对某30万吨油船进行结构疲劳强度计算,分析波激振动对船体结构疲劳损伤影响;基于二维非线性波浪载荷程序（含砰击颤振的波浪载荷）,采用时域方法对该油船进行船体梁弯矩计算,分析砰击颤振对船体梁弯矩及疲劳载荷的影响;结果表明对于该类大型油船波激振动和砰击颤振对船体的结构疲劳损伤的影响不可忽略。     

Marginal and total exceedance probabilities of environmental contours

Various methods have been proposed for defining an environmental contour, based on different concepts of exceedance probability. In the inverse first-order reliability method (IFORM) and the direct sampling (DS) method, contours are defined in terms of exceedances within a region bounded by a hyperplane in either standard normal space or the original parameter space, corresponding to marginal exceedance probabilities under rotations of the coordinate system. In contrast, the more recent inverse second-order reliability method (ISORM) and highest density (HD) contours are defined in terms of an isodensity contour of the joint density function in either standard normal space or the original parameter space, where an exceedance is defined to be anywhere outside the contour. Contours defined in terms of the total probability outside the contour are significantly more conservative than contours defined in terms of marginal exceedance probabilities. In this work we study the relationship between the marginal exceedance probability of the maximum value of each variable along an environmental contour and the total probability outside the contour. The marginal exceedance probability of the contour maximum can be orders of magnitude lower than the total exceedance probability of the contour, with the differences increasing with the number of variables. For example, a 50-year ISORM contour for two variables at 3-h time steps, passes through points with marginal return periods of 635 years, and the marginal return periods increase to 10,950 years for contours of four variables. It is shown that the ratios of marginal to total exceedance probabilities for DS contours are similar to those for IFORM contours. However, the marginal exceedance probabilities of the maximum values of each variable along an HD contour are not in fixed relation to the contour exceedance probability, but depend on the shape of the joint density function. Examples are presented to illustrate the impact of the choice of contour on simple structural reliability problems for cases where the use of contours defined in terms of either marginal or total exceedance probabilities may be appropriate. The examples highlight that to choose an appropriate contour method, some understanding about the shape of a structure's failure surface is required.     

液货晃荡对油船结构性能的影响研究

论文研究了液货晃荡对油船的结构响应影响研究.论文对比研究了考虑液货晃荡与忽略液货晃荡影响的油船结构强度,包括设计波参数对比,最大扭矩、最大垂向弯矩、最大水平弯矩控制参数对应工况下的结构应力分布特征对比.对比研究了考虑液货晃荡与忽略液货晃荡影响的油船疲劳强度,包括满载状态下的疲劳评估结果、疲劳损伤的浪向角分布结果对比.论文针对液货晃荡对油船结构响应影响提出的研究结论,对油船的结构设计及评估具有重要的研究意义.     

海上自升式平台动力分析方法研究(英文)

A jack-up platform,with its particular structure,showed obvious dynamic characteristics under complex environmental loads in extreme conditions.In this paper,taking a simplified 3-D finite element dynamic model in extreme storm conditions as research object,a transient dynamic analysis method was proposed,which was under both regular and irregular wave loads.The steps of dynamic analysis under extreme conditions were illustrated with an applied case,and the dynamic amplification factor(DAF) was calculated for each response parameter of base shear,overturning moment and hull sway.Finally,the structural response results of dynamic and static were compared and analyzed.The results indicated that the static strength analysis of the Jack-up Platforms was not enough under the dynamic loads including wave and current,further dynamic response analysis considering both computational efficiency and accuracy was necessary.     

Sequential sampling method using Gaussian process regression for estimating extreme structural response

A methodology for estimating extreme response statistics for marine structures, that takes both the long-term variability of the metocean environment and the short-term variability of response into account is presented. The proposed methodology uses Gaussian process regression to estimate parameters of the short-term response distribution, based on output from computationally expensive hydrodynamic simulations. We present an adaptive design strategy for sequential updating of the model, focusing on the metocean conditions that contribute the most to the long-term extreme. With this approach, only a limited number of hydrodynamic simulations are needed.The suggested approach is demonstrated on the problem of estimating the 25-year extreme vertical bending moment on a ship. We show that a relatively small number of iterations (full hydrodynamic simulations) are needed to converge toward the “exact” results obtained by running a large number of simulations covering the entire range of sea states.The results suggest that the proposed method can be used as an alternative to contour-based methods or other methods that consider a few sea states using accurate numerical simulations, with little or no added complexity or computational effort.     

多功能支持船波浪载荷研究

波浪载荷研究是船舶性能预报和结构安全评估的关键内容。文中利用势流理论直接数值求解多功能支持船遭受的波浪载荷(包括一阶波频力和二阶漂移力),利用统计方法得到波浪载荷的长期预报和短期预报极值,包括波浪总纵弯矩和垂向波浪剪力以用于后续的船舶整体结构安全评估,以及纵向漂移力、横向漂移力和首摇漂移力矩用于船舶的动力定位能力分析中。研究结果表明:求解波浪载荷的势流理论方法精确,能为后续的船舶性能预报和结构安全评估提供可靠的载荷输入。     

Mechanical model and characteristics of deep-water drilling riser-wellhead system under internal solitary waves

Internal solitary waves with a huge amount of energy easily trigger the large dynamic responses of riser-wellhead system and threaten its structural safety. However, previous studies have only focused on the dynamic response of the riser under internal solitary waves. The riser may experience excessive traction from the platform, especially from the mooring platform, in response to the arrival of internal solitary waves. The bottom of the riser connects to the wellhead system, which in turn exerts a reaction force on the riser. To address this problem, a coupled dynamic model of deep-water drilling mooring platform-riser-wellhead system under internal solitary waves is developed in this paper. A dynamic response analysis method based on the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method and finite element method is also proposed for the mooring platform-riser-wellhead system. A dynamical solver for the coupled system is then developed using MATLAB. The dynamic response characteristics of the riser-wellhead system under internal solitary waves are calculated. Results show that the displacement and bending moment of the system initially increases and then decreases along with the propagation of internal solitary waves, and finally reach equilibrium position. The displacement and bending moment reach their peak before the trough of internal solitary waves passes through the riser-wellhead system. The dynamic responses of the riser-wellhead system under the influence of internal solitary wave loads are much larger than those without the effect of internal solitary wave loads. The riser system experiences shearing loads at the interface of internal solitary waves, which trigger a step-like bending moment variation. The bending moment of the conductor under the mudline is greatly increased by the internal solitary waves.     

船体主要载荷效应的随机组合

基于静水载荷的时间变异性，导出了一种静水载荷效应与波浪载荷效应组合的新方法，同基于FBC（Ferry Borges Castenbete）模型或随机过程的上跨率的组合形式相比较，此方法的概念更清晰，计算更容易实施，考虑到规范中给定的最大允许静水载荷效应对应的普遍接受的超越概率水平，以及静水载荷过程跨越某一固定水平的概率的上界特性，规定静水载荷过程超越二十年最大允许载荷效应的概率为确珲载荷效应特征值的概率水平，经过这样处理，避免了载荷效应特征值的过高估计，通过数值分析检验方法的有效性，结果表明本文的方法可以得到级合载荷效应特征极值的一致估计。     

超大型油船破损剩余强度可靠性分析

根据MARPOL公约,对CSR-H规定的破口范围进行概率分析。以一艘超大型油船为例,分别统计了单舱破损后各个肋位的静水弯矩概率特征和基于全球海况谱的一周波浪弯矩预报值;基于Smith法的船体梁极限弯矩计算软件,分别统计了各舱破损后极限弯矩的概率特征;采用改进一次二阶矩法,计算了各舱破损后的剩余强度可靠度。研究结果表明：机舱和首尾货舱发生破损后整船失效概率较低,中部货舱区域发生破损后整船失效概率较大,尤其在静水中垂破损工况下最危险,失效概率在10^-2量级。     

Experimental and numerical analysis of a tanker side panel laterally punched by a knife edge indenter

The paper presents finite element simulations of a small-scale stiffened plate specimen quasi-statically punched at the mid-span by a rigid indenter, in order to examine its energy absorbing mechanisms and fracture. The specimen, scaled from a tanker side panel, is limited by one span between the web frames and the stringers. The paper provides practical information to estimate the extent of structural damage within ship side panels during collision accidents. Moreover, the results of this investigation should have relevance to evaluate grounding scenarios in which the bottom sustains local penetration. This is possible since the structural arrangement of the double hull and the double bottom of tanker vessels is very similar. The experimentally obtained force–displacement response and shape of the deformation show good agreement with the simulations performed by the explicit LS-DYNA finite element solver. The numerical analysis includes aspects of particular relevance to the behaviour of ship structures subjected to accidental loads which could give rise to difficulties in interpreting finite element calculations. In particular, the paper comments on the material nonlinearities, the importance of specifying the precise boundary conditions and the joining details of the structure. The considerable practical importance of these aspects has been the focus of attention in previous publications of the authors which evaluate the experimental-numerical impact response of simple ship structural components, such as beams and plates. Therefore, this paper uses the definitions proposed in those references to evaluate its applicability in the scaled tanker side panel, as an example of a more complex ship structure.     

6750箱集装箱船非线性波激振动和颤振响应分析

本文采用三维时域非线性水弹性方法分析了一艘6750箱集装箱船的水弹性响应以及运动和垂向弯矩特征。通过考虑入射波力、静水恢复力、砰击效应的非线性,研究了在恶劣海况下船体的非线性运动和垂向弯矩响应,同时分析了波激振动及颤振对垂向弯矩的影响。数值计算结果表明:(1)非线性入射波力对运动的影响较小,但是对垂向弯矩的影响较大,使得其有明显的倍频成分,同时中垂弯矩显著大于中拱弯矩。另外,非线性入射波力也引起了明显的非线性波激振动;(2)非线性静水恢复力对运动和载荷的影响均较大,但是没有引起明显的非线性响应。非线性计算的垂荡响应小于线性结果,而纵摇和垂向弯矩响应大于线性结果;(3)砰击效应对运动的影响较小,但对垂向弯矩的影响较大,砰击效应引起了显著的船体弹性高频振动,增大了载荷幅值,但是其引起的合成中垂和中拱幅值相差不大;(4)非线性水动力的作用主要引起垂向弯矩的倍频响应,包括倍频可能引起的二节点垂向弯矩弹性共振,而砰击效应主要引起船体二节点垂向弯矩共振;(5)本文的非线性水弹性响应计算结果与Kim给出的数值计算结果吻合很好。     

船舶结构极限波浪弯矩统计特征的一致性定义

在船舶结构界可靠性方法已得到越来越广泛的应用。在进行现有船舶的可靠性分析或对新船制订可靠性设计规范时，必须要首先确定能力与载荷的统计特征。对于船舶结构来说，波浪弯矩是主要的载荷，极限波浪弯矩的统计特征对极限强度的可靠性分析十分重要。但是，通过研究发现，不同的文献中给出的用于确定极限波浪弯矩统计特征的概念和方法并不一致，这一差别可能对了随后的船舶结构可靠性分析和设计有一定的影响。本文旨在对船舶结构极限波浪弯矩统计特征的一致性定义作一些讨论，以期澄清一些概念。     

“穷举法”在油船货油舱分舱优化设计中的应用

为实现油船货油舱分舱优化,以一艘大型油船为例,根据MARPOL公约和共同结构规范(HCSR)的要求,在主尺度、船型和货油舱总舱容确定的情况下,以最小静水弯矩为优化目标,基于"穷举法"编制优化货油舱横舱壁位置的应用程序。实际应用结果表明,该程序可运用到油船的分舱优化中,能达到快速、合理地分舱,提高设计效率的目的。