Numerical and experimental investigations into the application of response conditioned waves for long-term nonlinear analyses

The coefficient of contribution method, in which the extreme response is determined by considering only the few most important sea states, is an efficient way to do nonlinear long-term load analyses. To furthermore efficiently find the nonlinear short-term probability distributions of the vessel responses in these sea states, response conditioned wave methods can be used. Several researchers have studied the accuracy of response conditioned wave methods for this purpose. However, further investigations are necessary before these can become established tools. In this paper we investigate the accuracy by comparing the short-term probability distributions obtained from random irregular waves with those from response conditioned waves. We furthermore show how response conditioned wave methods can be fitted into a long-term response analysis. The numerical and experimental investigations were performed using a container vessel with a length between perpendiculars of 281 m. Numerical simulations were done with a nonlinear hydroelastic time domain code. Experiments were carried out with a flexible model of the vessel in the towing tank at the Marine Technology Centre in Trondheim. The focus was on the probability distributions of the midship vertical hogging bending moments in the sea states contributing most to the hogging moments with a mean return period of 20 years and 10 000 years. We found that the response conditioned wave methods can very efficiently be used to accurately determine the nonlinear short-term probability distributions for rigid hulls, but either accuracy or efficiency is to a large effect lost for flexible hulls, when slamming induced whipping responses are accounted for.     

超宽“海上渔场”海运砰击数值模拟与分析

考虑到半潜船海上运输超宽悬垂货物过程中可能发生波浪砰击,提出利用波浪势流理论及超宽悬垂货物海运过程中砰击控制条件的数值模拟方法,以半潜式“海上渔场”载运为例,利用OCTOPUS软件建立计算模型,模拟海运过程中不同海况、航行吃水及航速情况下,船舶横摇、纵摇、垂荡、“海上渔场”砰击发生概率及砰击载荷的变化情况,“海上渔场”海运过程砰击数值模拟结果与工程实际数据十分吻合,验证了数值模拟方法的合理、可行。     

Onboard tuning of vessel seakeeping model parameters and sea state characteristics

It is essential for a safe and cost-efficient marine operation to improve the knowledge about the real-time onboard vessel conditions. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for simultaneous tuning of important vessel seakeeping model parameters and sea state characteristics based on onboard vessel motion measurements and available wave data. The proposed algorithm is fundamentally based on the unscented transformation and inspired by the scaled unscented Kalman filter, which is very computationally efficient for large dimensional and nonlinear problems. The algorithm is demonstrated by case studies based on numerical simulations, considering realistic sensor noises and wave data uncertainties. Both long-crested and short-crested wave conditions are considered in the case studies. The system state of the proposed tuning framework consists of a vessel state vector and a sea state vector. The tuning results reasonably approach the true values of the considered uncertain vessel parameters and sea state characteristics, with reduced uncertainties. The quantification of the system state uncertainties helps to close a critical gap towards achieving reliability-based marine operations.     

基于腐蚀疲劳裂纹扩展的自升式海洋平台桩腿时变可靠性研究

本文研究了腐蚀与疲劳载荷耦合作用下自升式平台桩腿服的可靠性问题。采用ANSYS对自升式海洋平台桩腿结构进行建模,根据平台服役海域的波浪散布图对桩腿结构的工况进行划分,确定浪溅区桩腿结构的疲劳关键节点及其等效应力;以桩腿材料E690高强钢为对象,进行腐蚀疲劳裂纹扩展实验,获得了不同环境下的疲劳裂纹扩展参数;提出了基于断裂力学的浪溅区桩腿关键节点的时变可靠性模型,与采用现有腐蚀模型的桩腿时变可靠性指标进行了对比,结果表明了本文所提方法能有效地反映平台桩腿服役期间关键节点的时变可靠性变化趋势,为平台在服役期间的安全运行与维护保养提供了理论指导。     

Experimental study of a suspended subsea module at different positions in the splash zone

During the lifting of submerged marine modules, the highest dynamic loads occur in the splash zone. These forces are highly dynamic and cannot easily be estimated with sufficient accuracy using simple calculations or high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics because of their irregular and complex geometries. We conducted an experimental study in a wave tank to investigate the dynamics of a large subsea module in the splash zone subject to irregular waves. The experiments were conducted using a 1:8 scale model of a subsea module, similar to that designed by Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd., for the subsea pipeline from the Wenchang gas fields to the Yacheng pipeline. The model was examined at five different positions relative to the free surface, from completely above the surface to fully submerged. The resulting data are analyzed in the time and frequency domains. Spectral analysis and a dynamic effect parameter are used to analyze the dynamic loads on the subsea module. Several time-domain numerical analyses are performed with different peak periods, and the tension of the sub-slings is obtained. The experimental results for the relative forces and motions of the subsea module are presented, providing a reference for the design of other similar modules and their installation and validation data for computational modeling.     

滚装重荷载应急卸载过程的浮基多体系统动力学分析

在救灾和战争等非常情况下，利用中小型近海滚装渡轮或改装后的渔轮渡海输送重荷载，具有可征用船只数量多和装卸载不依赖吊装设备等优点。缺乏港口屏蔽的海浪环境中重荷载进行滚动卸载时，必须考虑波浪对船的作用和重荷载与船的相互作用。本文通过对船在波浪中所受表观重力和表观浮力的分析，导出波浪作用力矩的计算公式。运用浮基多体系统动力学方法，建立波浪-浮基-重荷载系统的动力学方程。使用标准的龙格-库塔四阶方法进行数值积分求解。考虑海况、船型和重荷载在船上运动参数等因素，计算了各工况下的横摇运动响应。进而给出了重荷载安全快速卸载的驾驶操作要求及相关运动规律。     

深水刚性跨接管安装过程中关键因素分析

结合中国南海1500m水深海况,使用非线性时域分析软件Orcaflex建立“M”型深水刚性跨接管有限元模型。分析跨接管在波浪及海流作用下,三种典型安装工况：提升工况,通过飞溅区工况以及着陆工况中,不同浪向和绞车下放速度对跨接管强度的影响。并根据API RP 2RD规范校核不同安装工况中的牵引力和结构应力响应是否满足要求。结果表明：提升过程中,绞车需要控制适宜的提升速度以避免发生支撑框架结构碰撞;通过飞溅区过程中, 45°浪向角时跨接管的应力响应最小,为理想施工浪向角;着陆过程中,绞车牵引力达到最大值,数值仿真可以预报安装施工船所需的基本起重能力。分析结果对南海深水跨接管安装具有一定参考意义。     

Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

基于倒置单摆原理的海上风机塔柱和转子机舱新的安装过程的数值模拟研究（英文）

Current installation costs of offshore wind turbines(OWTs) are high and profit margins in the offshore wind energy sector are low, it is thus necessary to develop installation methods that are more efficient and practical. This paper presents a numerical study(based on a global response analysis of marine operations) of a novel procedure for installing the tower and Rotor Nacelle Assemblies(RNAs) on bottom-fixed foundations of OWTs. The installation procedure is based on the inverted pendulum principle. A cargo barge is used to transport the OWT assembly in a horizontal position to the site, and a medium-size Heavy Lift Vessel(HLV) is then employed to lift and up-end the OWT assembly using a special upending frame. The main advantage of this novel procedure is that the need for a huge HLV(in terms of lifting height and capacity) is eliminated. This novel method requires that the cargo barge is in the leeward side of the HLV(which can be positioned with the best heading) during the entire installation. This is to benefit from shielding effects of the HLV on the motions of the cargo barge, so the foundations need to be installed with a specific heading based on wave direction statistics of the site and a typical installation season. Following a systematic approach based on numerical simulations of actual operations, potential critical installation activities, corresponding critical events, and limiting(response) parameters are identified. In addition, operational limits for some of the limiting parameters are established in terms of allowable limits of sea states. Following a preliminary assessment of these operational limits, the duration of the entire operation, the equipment used, and weather-and water depth-sensitivity, this novel procedure is demonstrated to be viable.     

Comparing different contour methods with response-based methods for extreme ship response analysis

Environmental contours are often applied in probabilistic structural reliability analysis to identify extreme environmental conditions that may give rise to extreme loads and responses. They facilitate approximate long term analysis of critical structural responses in situations where computationally heavy and time-consuming response calculations makes full long-term analysis infeasible. The environmental contour method identifies extreme environmental conditions that are expected to give rise to extreme structural response of marine structures. The extreme responses can then be estimated by performing response calculations for environmental conditions along the contours.Response-based analysis is an alternative, where extreme value analysis is performed on the actual response rather than on the environmental conditions. For complex structures, this is often not practical due to computationally heavy response calculations. However, by establishing statistical emulators of the response, using machine learning techniques, one may obtain long time-series of the structural response and use this to estimate extreme responses.In this paper, various contour methods will be compared to response-based estimation of extreme vertical bending moment for a tanker. A response emulator based on Gaussian processes regression with adaptive sampling has been established based on response calculations from a hydrodynamic model. Long time-series of sea-state parameters such as significant wave height and wave period are used to construct N-year environmental contours and the extreme N-year response is estimated from numerical calculations for identified sea states. At the same time, the response emulator is applied on the time series to provide long time-series of structural response, in this case vertical bending moment of a tanker. Extreme value analysis is then performed directly on the responses to estimate the N-year extreme response. The results from either method will then be compared, and it is possible to evaluate the accuracy of the environmental contour method in estimating the response. Moreover, different contour methods will be compared.     

Accelerated second-order hydrodynamic load calculation on semi-submersible floaters

A rapid method for calculation of second-order hydrodynamic wave loads on semi-submersible platforms is developed and validated against radiation–diffraction theory. The method is based on slender-body theory and builds on modal truncation of the quadratic transfer function (QTF). The semi-submersible floater is split into individual members and the existing theory for vertical cylindrical columns is extended to include the heave force. Further expressions for the surge, heave and pitch load on the horizontal pontoons are derived and implemented. The accuracy of the method is assessed by comparison to radiation–diffraction results using the Pinkster approximation. We find that the slender-body approximation for the column surge force is most accurate for small values of the diameter-to-draft ratio. For the three sea states considered, this error is below 10% for diameter-to-draft ratios less than 0.2.Error analysis is provided for the column heave and pitch and the pontoon loads. For all members, application of 128 modes in the QTF approximation is found sufficient to accurately represent the full slender-body QTF solution.Next, the first- and second-order loads on the full floater under different sea state conditions are compared to radiation–diffraction theory. With 128 modes, the second-order loads are obtained 2500 times faster than with conventional approaches with error levels of 22% for surge, 10% for pitch and zero error for heave. The surge error is discussed and linked to the small draft of the columns. The numerical efficiency of the method allows the consideration of second-order loads in the first stages of the design and optimisation of semi-submersible floaters.     

Forecasting fishing vessel responses in coastal areas

A system for forecasting the operability of ships was developed by extending a wave forecasting system with the ship responses to the forecast sea states. The system produces 4-day wave forecasts in an implementation for the Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone, where the vessels’ seakeeping performance is forecast, although the method presented could well be applied to any other coastal region. The proposed procedure requires the knowledge of the transfer functions for different ship speeds and headings. The computations are made for two different types of fishing vessels that currently operate in the Portuguese coast. Ship motions and derived responses are evaluated with a strip theory code and compared with the prescribed values of relevant seakeeping criteria that represent the limit conditions that still allow standard operational conditions for those vessels. For each forecast sea state at each grid point at a given time, the response spectrum is calculated and operability indexes are computed and compared with the maximum allowed values for a specific operation criterion. The results are presented as operational index maps for various areas of the Portuguese coast, and the information provided by system will help ship masters to plan the operation of their ships, namely to decide the areas to operate in anticipation. In this way, they can identify areas in which the level of operationally of their ships will be degraded due to weather conditions and avoid them.     

Uncertainty analysis of extreme mooring loads associated with environmental contours and peak tension distributions

This paper aims to assess the uncertainty on the extreme mooring loads of floating system considering short-term variability. Two environmental contour approaches based on the inverse First and Second Order Reliability Methods are employed to identify critical sea states that may give rise to extreme loads. The uncertainty related to the construction of environmental contours is addressed including significant differences due to marginal distribution fitting, parameter estimation methods and joint models. Three measured datasets are analysed using a known conditional joint distribution and proposed mixed copula model. 3-h time domain numerical simulation for each sea state is conducted and the characteristic extreme responses of mooring lines subjected to design loads are assessed. The uncertainties due to various statistical models including the average conditional exceedance rate method as well as global maxima, peak-over-threshold method combined with Gumbel distribution, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution and 3-parameter Weibull distribution are investigated and quantified. It is observed that marginal distributions, joint models and parameters estimation methods have apparent effect on design loads estimation, and the extreme tensions of the semi-submersible platform shows significant difference using various probabilistic models. The results indicate that those epistemic uncertainties should be account for in the reliability analysis or safety factor calibration for mooring systems.     

半潜式海洋平台的周期内波载荷分析

基于半潜式海洋平台基本结构参数和南海海洋环境条件参数,建立海洋周期内波作用下的半潜式平台内波载荷计算模型。采用解析方法,分别给出波长、波高和密度跃层位置等对周期内波载荷的影响及作用力特点,并分析了相位差的影响。对半潜式平台存在较大威胁的海洋周期内波主要是波长较长、振幅较大且密度跃层位置接近于水面的内波;密度跃层位置对平台受力影响较大,相位差对周期内波载荷的影响可以忽略。     

施工期天鲸号适应能力分析

天鲸号绞吸式挖泥船在海上进行疏浚作业时,波浪要素需要满足一定条件,才能保证安全施工。为了确定防波堤修建后掩护区的波浪条件是否满足天鲸号的施工要求,采用数学模型计算了某集装箱码头工程在不同节点时防波堤掩护区的波浪条件,对天鲸号挖泥船适应能力进行分析,并给出如果不满足施工要求时防波堤需延伸的长度。结果表明:波浪数值模拟技术可以很好地为挖泥船海上安全作业提供可靠的依据,避免风险。     

Hydrodynamic response of a non-ship-shaped FPSO vessel with damping plates

Experimental and numerical hydrodynamic investigations were carried out on a 1:45 scale model of a novel non-ship-shaped floating, production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel that has been designed for use in the icy waters of the Arctic as well as the severe sea states of the North Sea. This FPSO vessel has a turret mooring system that is disconnectable during emergencies and inclement weather conditions. Experiments were conducted on a 1:45 scale model of the FPSO with damping plates consisting of skirt plates and different sizes of keel plates in order to study their influence on the response of the vessel. A numerical study of the scale model was carried out using the Wave Analysis at Massachusetts Institute of Technology code, and the results provided by it were compared with those obtained from model tests in the wave basin.     

超深水钻井隔水管动力分析理论研究与数值模拟

随着钻井作业向深水(500～1 500m)和超深水(1 500m以上)发展,在交变海洋环境载荷波浪力、海流力和浮式钻井平台运动的共同作用下,隔水管的动态响应更加显著.文中探讨了隔水管侧向振动的数学模型、动态特性分析中的结构与环境载荷建模技术及其非线性动力分析方法,研究并对比了不同分析方法在计算效率、计算精度和工程适用性等方面的差异.介绍了时域内应用ABAQUS软件进行超深水钻井隔水管非确定性动力分析的算法与详细流程,算例比较了不同边界条件对深水钻井隔水管动态特性的影响.研究表明,时域非确定性分析最为精确但需要时间最长,且只能采用线性AIRY波浪理论;理论上,海流主要引起隔水管动态响应的时不变部分,但该时不变部分不等同于海流引起的隔水管静态响应,一种简化方法只将海浪与钻井船运动作为动载荷而不考虑海流对动态响应的贡献;钻井船运动和波浪载荷是隔水管动态响应分析主要的动载荷,对于超深水隔水管来说,钻井船运动是首要的动载荷,其慢漂运动对隔水管性能有重要影响,而波浪仅对隔水管局部产生作用.     

不同系泊模式LNG旁靠超大型FSRU系泊系统设计及水动力性能分析

本文采用规范设计、理论分析和数值仿真相结合的方法,建立LNG船与LNG-FSRU两船旁靠系泊的理论和数值分析模型,对LNG旁靠FSRU码头系泊和软钢臂单点系泊两种典型系泊模式下的转运及卸载作业进行数值分析.同时考虑外部海洋环境风、浪、流组合作用下的综合作业工况,确定FSRU与LNG近距离旁靠作业时系泊设备、缆绳种类、固定式和漂浮式护舷的选型和布置,对LNG、FSRU船的运动特性以及运动过程中缆绳张力和护舷受力开展统计分析,优化系泊系统布置和参数.在系泊系统设计和分析的基础上,根据系泊缆的直径、所受最大张力值,为系泊设备选型提供参考,便于开展码头系泊系统和单点系泊系统布置研究.基于旁靠系泊的设计标准提出LNG-FSRU安全作业的最大允许海况,为LNG-FSRU的运营提供可靠的技术保障.