A Bayesian approach for modeling origin-destination matrices

The majority of origin destination (OD) matrix estimation methods focus on situations where weak or partial information, derived from sample travel surveys, is available. Information derived from travel census studies, in contrast, covers the entire population of a specific study area of interest. In such cases where reliable historical data exist, statistical methodology may serve as a flexible alternative to traditional travel demand models by incorporating estimation of trip-generation, trip-attraction and trip-distribution in one model. In this research, a statistical Bayesian approach on OD matrix estimation is presented, where modeling of OD flows derived from census data, is related only to a set of general explanatory variables. A Poisson and a negative binomial model are formulated in detail, while emphasis is placed on the hierarchical Poisson-gamma structure of the latter. Problems related to the absence of closed-form expressions are bypassed with the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method known as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The methodology is tested on a realistic application area concerning the Belgian region of Flanders on the level of municipalities. Model comparison indicates that negative binomial likelihood is a more suitable distributional assumption than Poisson likelihood, due to the great degree of overdispersion present in OD flows. Finally, several predictive goodness-of-fit tests on the negative binomial model suggest a good overall fit to the data. In general, Bayesian methodology reduces the overall uncertainty of the estimates by delivering posterior distributions for the parameters of scientific interest as well as predictive distributions for future OD flows.     

Capacity-constrained traffic forecasting model

Projecting future traffic is an important stage in any traffic and transportation planning study. Accurate traffic forecasting is vital for transportation planning, highway safety evaluation, traffic operations analysis, and geometric and pavement design among others. In view of its importance, this paper introduces a regression-based traffic forecasting methodology for a one dimensional capacity-constrained highway. Five different prediction functions are tested; the best was selected according to the accuracy of projections against historical traffic data. The three-parameter logistic function produced more accurate projections compared to other functions tested when highway capacity constraints were taken into consideration. The R ² values at various test locations ranged from 88% to 98%, indicating good prediction capability. Using the Fisher's information matrix approach, the t-statistic test showed all parameters in the logistic function were highly statistically significant. To evaluate reliability of projections, predictive intervals were calculated at a 95% level of confidence. Predictions using the logistic function were also compared to those predicted using the compound growth rate and linear regression methods. The results show that the proposed methodology generates much more reasonable projections than current practices.     

HMB Reflectors: A New Horizontal Retro‐reflecting System to Improve Safety at Pedestrian Crossings

Abstract

Each year more than 1000 pedestrians are injured in accidents on pedestrian crossings in Switzerland. The accidents often occur in darkness, twilight or poor visibility during rain at locations without sufficient public street lighting because vehicle drivers notice the pedestrian crossing too late or overlook it altogether. Pedestrian crossings can be made significantly easier for vehicle drivers to recognize at night and in poor visibility by means of HMB reflectors. When crossing sites are made more conspicuous with high horizontal retro‐reflecting markers, the readiness to stop increases. The reflectors can thus contribute to improving road safety at pedestrian crossings. This new low‐cost measure has a wide range of applications. The new reflector system is currently gaining ground in Switzerland and several other European countries.     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Investigating the applicability of exclusive pedestrian phase at two‐phase actuated controlled intersections

The exclusive pedestrian phase (EPP) has been used in many countries to promote walking around downtown areas by increasing the ease and convenience of pedestrian crossing. However, its applicability has not been systematically demonstrated, especially when an intersection is operated in actuated mode. This paper presents an extensive simulation‐based analysis of the applicability of EPP as compared with a normal concurrent pedestrian‐phase pattern at an isolated intersection controlled by actuated logic. Actuated signal control logics for EPP‐actuated and conventional concurrent pedestrian phase‐actuated controls are developed. Both of these control logics consider pedestrian crossing demands and can adapt to changes in vehicle traffic to reduce vehicle delay as well. A simulation model of a two‐phase controlled intersection is built and calibrated based on field data using VISSIM (PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG in Karlsruhe, Germany). Extensive analysis is conducted to reveal fully the applicable EPP domain in terms of vehicle traffic demand, pedestrian demand, vehicle turning ratio, and pedestrian diagonal crossing ratio. The results show that the performance and applicable domain of EPP are jointly determined by those five factors. EPP significantly outperforms concurrent pedestrian phase if the vehicle turning ratio is greater than 0.6 and the pedestrian diagonal crossing ratio is greater than 0.6. These results can help traffic engineers in choosing the appropriate pedestrian‐phase patterns at actuated signalized intersections. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disaggregate safety evaluation for signalized intersections and evaluation tool

This study was to evaluate traffic safety of four‐legged signalized intersections and to develop a spreadsheet tool for identifying high‐risk intersections taking into consideration vehicle movements, left‐turn signal phase types, and times of day. The study used data from Virginia and employed count data models and the empirical Bayes (EB) method for safety evaluation of such intersections. It was found that crash pattern defined by vehicle movements involved in a crash and time of day are important factors for intersection crash analysis. Especially for a safety performance function (SPF), a model specification (Poisson or NB), inclusion of left‐turn signal types, type of traffic flow variables, variable functional forms, and/or magnitudes of coefficients turned out to be different across times of day and crash patterns. The spreadsheet application tool was developed incorporating the developed SPFs and the EB method. As long as Synchro files for signal plans and crash database are maintained, no additional field data collection efforts are required. Adjusting the developed SPFs and the spreadsheet for recent traffic and safety conditions can be done by applying the calibration methods employed in the SafetyAnalyst software and the Highway Safety Manual. Implementing the developed tool equipped with streamlining data entry would greatly improve accuracy and efficiency of safety evaluation of four‐legged signalized intersections in localities and highway agencies that cannot operate the SafetyAnalyst. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimization of pedestrian phase patterns at signalized intersections: a multi‐objective approach

This paper presents a multi‐objective optimization model and its solution algorithm for optimization of pedestrian phase patterns, including the exclusive pedestrian phase (EPP) and the conventional two‐way crossing (TWC) at an intersection. The proposed model will determine the optimal pedestrian phase pattern and the corresponding signal timings at an intersection to best accommodate both vehicular traffic and pedestrian movements. The proposed model is unique with respect to the following three critical features: (1) proposing an unbiased performance index for comparison of EPP and TWC by explicitly modeling the pedestrian delay under the control of TWC and EPP; (2) developing a multi‐objective model to maximize the utilization of the available green time by vehicular traffic and pedestrian under both EPP or TWC; and (3) designing a genetic algorithm based heuristic algorithm to solve the model. Case study and sensitivity analysis results have shown the promising property of the proposed model to assist traffic practitioners, researchers, and authorities in properly selecting pedestrian phase patterns at signalized intersections. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“Local background” levels of carbon monoxide in an urban area

The objective of this study was to obtain a better understanding of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations immediately upwind of urban roadways, the “local background” values, and how these concentrations depend upon the surrounding traffic and the general meteorology. Measurements were made at seven sites in Seattle, WA during the winter of 1993. Local background CO concentrations were characterized by an absence of short term fluctuations, a steady buildup during the 3 p.m. to 11 p.m. period, and a lack of spatial gradients in the 8-h average values. Distinctly different log-normal distributions of the 8-h averages were observed for “trafficked” sites versus “urban park” sites, with mean values of 1.6 and 1.0 ppm respectively. A simple regression model was developed to predict the local background CO that includes distance from roadway, average daily traffic of nearby roadways, and the frequency of occurrence of low wind speeds (R² = 0.74; F = 170).     

Severity of pedestrian injuries due to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong: a Bayesian spatial logit model

The present study intended to (1) investigate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties involved in traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong; (2) determine the effect of pedestrian volumes on the severity levels of pedestrian injuries; and (3) explore the role of spatial correlation in econometric crash‐severity models. The data from 1889 pedestrian‐related crashes at 318 signalized intersections between 2008 and 2012 were elaborately collected from the Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. To account for the cross‐intersection heterogeneity, a Bayesian hierarchical logit model with uncorrelated and spatially correlated random effects was developed. An intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior was specified for the spatial correlation term. Results revealed that (1) signalized intersections with greater pedestrian volumes generally exhibited a lower injury risk; (2) ignoring the spatial correlation potentially results in reduced model goodness‐of‐fit, an underestimation of variability and standard error of parameter estimates, as well as inconsistent, biased, and erroneous inference; (3) special attention should be paid to the following factors, which led to a significantly higher probability of pedestrians being killed or sustaining severe injury: pedestrian age greater than 65 years, casualties with head injuries, crashes that occurred on footpaths that were not obstructed/overcrowded, heedless or inattentive crossing, crashes on the two‐way carriageway, and those that occurred near tram or light‐rail transit stops. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transport reviews prize

Bombay, the commercial capital of India, is suffering from traffic thrombosis. Bombay used to be an attractive city some three decades ago and was commonly referred to as ‘Bombay the Beautiful’. The picture is now, however, the opposite extreme.

The way Bombay has grown, an underground railway is no doubt justified. Unfortunately, the economy may not be able to afford it for many years to come. Low cost measures have therefore to be adopted like (a) development of land use with a view to controlling the traffic demand itself; (b) discouraging further growth in and around the existing congested central business district; (c) establishment of a counter‐magnet; (d) conversion of the mono‐centric pattern to a poly‐nucleated structure; (e) better pedestrian facilities; (f) intermediate public transport; (g) traffic management measures to maximize available road capacities; (h) bus priority measures; (i) creating an east‐west axis for activities to relieve the present north‐south axis.

This would form the core of transport strategy. Capital intensive rail projects will face severe shortage of funds. An additional road/rail link has also been suggested to the mainland. The congestion in Bombay can be relieved if the master plan is prepared for an integrated system. Traffic and town planning must go hand in hand with priority to traffic planning.     

Development of a delay model for unsignalized intersections applicable to traffic assignment

Abstract

This paper develops a model for estimating unsignalized intersection delays which can be applied to traffic assignment (TA) models. Current unsignalized intersection delay models have been developed mostly for operational purposes, and demand detailed geometric data and complicated procedures to estimate delay. These difficulties result in unsignalized intersection delays being ignored or assumed as a constant in TA models.

Video and vehicle license plate number recognition methods are used to collect traffic volume data and to measure delays during peak and off-peak traffic periods at four unsignalized intersections in the city of Tehran, Iran. Data on geometric design elements are measured through field surveys. An empirical approach is used to develop a delay model as a function of influencing factors based on 5- and 15-min time intervals. The proposed model estimates delays on each approach based on total traffic volumes, rights-of-way of the subject approach and the intersection friction factor. The effect of conflicting traffic flows is considered implicitly by using the intersection friction factor. As a result, the developed delay model guarantees the convergence of TA solution methods.

A comparison between delay models performed using different time intervals shows that the coefficients of determination, R ², increases from 43.2% to 63.1% as the time interval increases from 5- to 15-min. The US Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model (which is widely used in Iran) is validated using the field data and it is found that it overestimates delay, especially in the high delay ranges.     

Microscopic modeling of large‐scale pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in the city of Madinah,Saudi Arabia

This paper presents a micro‐simulation modeling framework for evaluating pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in crowded crossing areas. The framework adopts a simulation approach that models vehicles and pedestrians at the microscopic level while satisfying two sets of constraints: (1) flow constraints and (2) non‐collision constraints. Pedestrians move across two‐directional cells as opposed to one‐dimensional lanes as in the case of vehicles; therefore, extra caution is considered when modeling the shared space between vehicles and pedestrians. The framework is used to assess large‐scale pedestrian–vehicle conflicts in a highly congested ring road in the City of Madinah that carries 20 000 vehicles/hour and crossed by 140 000 pedestrians/hour after a major congregational prayer. The quantitative and visual results of the simulation exhibits serious conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles, resulting in considerable delays for pedestrians crossing the road (9 minutes average delay) and slow traffic conditions (average speed <10 km/hour). The model is then used to evaluate the following three mitigating strategies: (1) pedestrian‐only phase; (2) grade separation; and (3) pedestrian mall. A matrix of operational measures of effectiveness for network‐wide performance (e.g., average travel time, average speed) and for pedestrian‐specific performance (e.g., mean speed, mean density, mean delay, mean moving time) is used to assess the effectiveness of the proposed strategies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Influences of the Built Environment and Residential Self-Selection on Pedestrian Behavior: Evidence from Austin, TX

Pedestrian travel offers a wide range of benefits to both individuals and society. Planners and public health officials alike have been promoting policies that improve the quality of the built environment for pedestrians: mixed land uses, interconnected street networks, sidewalks and other facilities. Whether such policies will prove effective remains open to debate. Two issues in particular need further attention. First, the impact of the built environment on pedestrian behavior may depend on the purpose of the trip, whether for utilitarian or recreational purposes. Second, the connection between the built environment and pedestrian behavior may be more a matter of residential location choice than of travel choice. This study aims to provide new evidence on both questions. Using 1368 respondents to a 1995 survey conducted in six neighborhoods in Austin, TX, two separate negative binomial models were estimated for the frequencies of strolling trips and pedestrian shopping trips within neighborhoods. We found that although residential self-selection impacts both types of trips, it is the most important factor explaining walking to a destination (i.e. for shopping). After accounting for self-selection, neighborhood characteristics (especially perceptions of these characteristics) impact strolling frequency, while characteristics of local commercial areas are important in facilitating shopping trips.     

Prohibited–permitted right-turn phasing strategy based on capacity analysis of right-turn movements

In traffic-crowded metropolitan areas, such as Shanghai and Beijing in China, right-turn vehicles that operate with a permitted phase at signalized intersections are normally permitted to filter through large numbers of pedestrians and bicycles. To alleviate such conflicts and improve safety, traffic engineers in Shanghai introduced a prohibited–permitted right-turn operation, adding a subphase to the permitted phase in which right-turns are prohibited. Unfortunately, the prohibited subphase would reduce the capacity of right-turn movements when it prohibits right turns even if there are few pedestrians and bicycles crossing the street. This paper aims at quantifying the impact of both non-vehicular flows and the prohibited subphase on the right-turn capacity, and then proposes a strategy to determine appropriate prohibited–permitted right-turn operation that minimizes the capacity reduction caused by the prohibited subphase. To achieve this goal, we improved the pedestrian and bicycle adjustment factor described in the Highway Capacity Manual by taking into account: (1) the variety in space competition between pedestrians and bicycles, and (2) the effect of two conflict zones in each phase on right-turn operation. In addition, we revised the capacity estimation model in the Highway Capacity Manual, and developed a model based on bicycle/pedestrian volume fluctuation to describe the capacity reduction due to both non-vehicular flows and the prohibited subphase. Furthermore, we proposed a timing strategy for the onset and duration of appropriate prohibited subphase. When bicycle and pedestrian volumes are low, the actuated strategy turns to the permitted phase. When these volumes are moderate, the strategy turns to the prohibited–permitted operation. With the volumes increasing, the prohibited subphase onset advances and duration increases. In these two scenarios, the new strategy has higher right-turn capacity than the current pretimed prohibited–permitted operation. Unfortunately, when bicycle and pedestrian volumes are high, the strategy yields similar right-turn capacity. However, the new prohibited subphase has less potential vehicle–bicycle and vehicle–pedestrian conflicts.     

Planning guidelines for metro–bus interchanges by means of a pedestrian microsimulation model

The big paradigm for cities nowadays is to study the movement of pedestrians at the interface between metro and bus systems – metro–bus interchanges. When these interchanges are not well designed, walking is inefficient and can be unsafe for pedestrians. This paper analyses, by means of a pedestrian microsimulation model, metro–bus interchange spaces in order to propose planning guidelines for the city of Santiago de Chile. Specific objectives are (1) to identify the variables that provide efficiency and safety in those spaces; (2) to simulate different scenarios using the pedestrian simulation model LEGION; (3) to propose planning and design guidelines for pedestrian spaces at metro–bus interchanges; and (4) to contrast the recommendations in the recently opened terminal station on Line 1 of Metro de Santiago: Los Dominicos Station.     

A cooperative waiting strategy based on elliptical areas for the Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows

The purpose of this paper to present a cooperative scheduling algorithm for solving the Dynamic Pickup and Delivery Problem with Time Windows (DPDPTW). The idea behind cooperative waiting strategies is to calculate simultaneously the waiting times for all nodes in the solution. Classical non‐cooperative scheduling algorithms perform the scheduling for each route independently of the scheduling of the other routes. We present the Cooperative Scheduling Problem (CSP) based on the elliptical areas generated by vehicles waiting at their nodes. The CSP is solved by means of a genetic algorithm and is evaluated by using a set of benchmarks based on real‐life data found in the literature. Initially, two waiting strategies are presented: Wait‐Early‐Time scheduling and Balanced‐Departure scheduling. Extensive empirical simulations have been carried out by analyzing the degree of dynamism and the average waiting time, a new concept defined to take into account the gap between the time windows of pickup and delivery nodes. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating spatial interactions in zero-inflated negative binomial models for freight trip generation

This paper formulates a spatial autoregressive zero-inflated negative binomial model for freight trip productions and attractions. The model captures the following freight trip characteristics: count data type, positive trip rates, overdispersion, zero-inflation, and spatial autocorrelation. The spatial autoregressive structure is applied in the negative binomial part of the models to obtain unbiased estimates of the effects of different regressors. Further, we estimate parameters using the full information maximum likelihood estimator. We perform empirical analysis with an establishment based freight survey conducted in Chennai. Separate models are estimated for trips generated by motorised two-wheelers and three-wheelers, and pickups besides an aggregate model. Spatial variables such as road density and indicator of geolocation are insignificant in all the models. In contrast, the spatial autocorrelation is significant in all of the models except for the freight trips attracted and produced by pickups. From a policy standpoint, the elasticity results show the importance of considering spatial autocorrelation. We also highlight the bias due to aggregation of vehicle classes, based on the elasticities.

     

An augmented Lagrangian origin‐based algorithm for link‐capacitated traffic assignment problem

The origin‐based algorithm is embedded into the augmented Lagrangian method for the link‐capacitated traffic assignment problem. In order to solve the “nonexistence” problem due to the second partial derivatives of the augmented Lagrangian function at some specific points, the approximate expressions of the second partial derivatives are amended in the origin‐based algorithm. The graph of last common nodes is developed on the basis of the restricted single‐origin network. A method is proposed for finding n–1 last common nodes of the restricted single‐origin network, resulting in computational complexity of O(n²) in finding last common nodes. Numerical analysis on the Sioux Falls network and Chicago Sketch network demonstrated the effectiveness and characteristics of the proposed algorithm. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of regional population density on walking behavior

Land use can influence walking (measured by the number of steps) and so the health of people. This paper presents the result of empirical research on the impact of regional population densities (inhabitants per inhabitable area) on the number of steps (all steps, both outdoors and indoors). With data collected from almost 11,000 respondents in 148 Japanese regions, we estimate polynomial regression models, the total number of steps being the dependent variable and densities being the main independent variable. Regional population density significantly affects the number of steps after controlling for individual and household attributes. The estimated population density that maximizes the number of steps is around 11,000?persons/km². Increasing densities, up to levels of around 11,000?inhabitants/km², could increase walking and consequently the health of inhabitants. The population density elasticity of the number of steps is 0.046–0.049 in a simple log linear regression model without a peak.