台湾海峡海损事故的灰色关联矩阵分析

通过采用灰色系统理论中的关联分析原理，建立海事种类与导致海事原因、船舶尺度大小、海事发生地理位置及海事发生时间的灰色关联矩阵，并运用台湾海峡船舶海损事故统计资料，对台湾海峡发生海事的特点及规律进行分析，为改善台湾海峡的海上交通安全状况提供有益的参考。     

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

基于FTA的渔船海损事故分析

事故树分析(FTA)是一种重要而常用的系统安全分析方法。将该方法运用到了渔船海事分析中,并以渔船触礁事故为例运用事故树描述事故的因果关系,进行定性分析,确定出事故的主要因素,提出了事故的控制措施。研究结果表明,在渔船海损事故分析中应用事故树分析方法,有利于对事故的全面分析,便于找出引发事故的直接原因,总结经验,提出事故预防措施,降低事故发生率,保障渔业生产的健康发展。     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

水上交通事故管理系统设计与实现

采用电子海图技术建立水上交通事故信息系统,已经成为海上交通管理、事故分析的一个先进有效的技术手段。根据事故数据的属性和空间特性,确定基于电子海图的水上交通事故管理系统的内容特点,设计了事故管理系统的功能结构和技术开发流程。该系统能提高海上交通管理效率,预防事故的发生,改善海上交通环境,并提供救助设备的合理配布方案。     

Causes of casualties and the regulation of occupational health and safety in the shipping industry

The aim of this paper is to investigate maritime safety from an occupational hazards perspective as opposed to a maritime casualty perspective. It is recognised that safety in shipping should encompass casualties arising from accidents occurring in the course of performing normal seafaring duties, not just those arising from technical defects or maritime disasters. The paper discusses an investigation involving a survey of 19 flag states and two detailed studies of records kept at the Hong Kong and Singapore maritime administrations. The results indicate that occupational accidents account for a significant proportion of fatalities at sea. The statistics presented specify the ship types that are most at risk, as well as the types of occupational hazards that can most frequently lead to accidents and fatalities. The results of this study indicate voids in the process of investigating fatalities that relate to occupational accidents. These results also indicate inadequate investigation of events and causes. The creation of a database of such information could potentially be used for the development of appropriate regulations that could prevent fatal and non-fatal occupational accidents through regulatory processes.     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

基于“浴盆”曲线的海事预防分析

船舶海上交通事故是随机事件,很难预测,但事故发生也有其规律,掌握了事故规律就有可能控制和预防事故。通过"浴盆"曲线分析"人"和"机"两因素与海事之间的内在联系,旨在认识海事发生的规律,有效减少发生海事的风险,预防海事的发生。     

From Titanic to Costa Concordia—a century of lessons not learned

The recent foundering of the Costa Concordia in January 2012 demonstrated that accidents can occur even with ships that are considered masterpieces of modern technology and despite more than 100?years of regulatory and technological progress in maritime safety. The purpose of this paper is, however, not to speculate about the concrete causes of the Costa Concordia accident, but rather to consider some human and organizational factors that were present in the Costa Concordia accident as well as in the foundering of the Titanic a century ago, and which can be found in many other maritime accidents over the years. The paper argues that these factors do not work in isolation but in combination and often together with other underlying factors. The paper critically reviews the focus of maritime accident investigations and points out that these factors do not receive sufficient attention. It is argued that the widespread confidence in the efficacy of new or improved technical regulations, that characterizes the recommendations from most maritime accident investigations, has led to a lack of awareness of complex interactions of factors and components in socio-technical systems. If maritime safety is to be sustainably improved, a systemic focus must be adopted in future accident investigations.     

Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.     

仿真技术在船舶碰撞事故再现中的应用

船舶碰撞的研究始终是航行安全或海上交通安全研究领域的热点问题。介绍了应用船舶操纵模拟器模拟碰撞过程的仿真技术,它是目前进行海上事故鉴定和事故分析的重要技术手段。首先利用仿真技术对当事船舶的碰撞过程进行实时动态仿真,再通过船舶碰撞事故分析软件(船舶碰撞事故分析系统2.0)进行分析,最后的仿真结果对船长、驾驶员具有重要的参考价值,也为海上安全主管机关调查处理船舶碰撞事故提供一种新的途径。     

人为因素对驾驶操作安全的影响评估（英文）

In recent years,marine pilotage accidents occurring on a worldwide basis as a result of human error have not been ceased to transpire,despite advances in technology and a significant set of international conventions,regulations,and recommendations to reduce them.This paper aims to investigate the effect of human factors on the safety of maritime pilotage operations.The human factors that affect the operators who are performing ships' berthing operations have also been examined in detail.In this study,in order to determine the causes of human-related errors occurred in maritime pilotage accidents,a comprehensive literature review is carried out,and a considerable number of real past case examples and an analysis of the maritime accident investigation reports regarding pilotage operations events that occurred between 1995 and 2015 have been reviewed.To validate the identified humanrelated risk factors(HCFs) and explore other contributory factors,survey questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with domain experts have been conducted.A structural hierarchy diagram for the identified risk factors(HCFs) has been developed and validated through experienced experts belonging to the maritime sector.A questionnaire for pair-wise comparison is carried out and analysed using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) approach to evaluate the weight and rank the importance of the identified human causal factors.The findings of this study will benefit the maritime industry,by identifying a new database on causal factors that are contributing to the occurrence of maritime pilotage disasters.The database can be used as a stand-alone reference or help implement effective risk reduction strategies to reduce the human error,that might occur during pilotage operations.     

e-Navigation and situation-dependent manoeuvring assistance to enhance maritime emergency response

Safe ship handling in every situation and under all prevailing circumstances of ship status and the environment is a core element contributing to the safety of the maritime transportation system. Especially in case of emergencies, there is a need for quick, accurate and reliable information to manoeuvre a ship safely. This paper focusses on investigations into enhanced response to maritime emergencies by means of onboard manoeuvring support. The research and discussions are done exemplarily for person overboard (PoB) accidents. PoB is a typical situation for application of manoeuvring assistance and decision support, e.g. in order to return quickly to the position of the accident. Based on the analysis of selected accident case studies and existing solutions representing the technical state-of-the-art, shortcomings will be identified and discussed, and a potential approach for advanced manoeuvring support in the context of e-Navigation-based requirements will be introduced and discussed.     

关于对水上交通事故责任人进行刑事追究的探讨

文中针对部分构成交通肇事罪的水上交通事故由于种种原因仍一定程度上存在以行政处罚“代替”刑事处罚的现象,结合实际,从水上交通事故中的责任人刑事责任追究的法律依据、案件移送、实例探讨、目前水上交通事故刑责追究工作存在的不足及建议等方面进行了简要分析。     

论事故当事人责任和事故法律责任的区别

长期以来国内海事界专家学者,特别是海事调查人员“判明事故当事人的责任”的理解一直存在着歧义。借鉴《道路交通安全法》的基本理论来分析海上交通事故当事人责任及责任确定原则,可知事故当事人责任是指事故当事人的过错行为对交通事故形成的影响力的大小和过错的严重程度,而不是当事人应当承担的法律责任。     

海上船舶碰撞事故原因探讨——疲劳的剖析

在发生的船舶海事事故中,人为因素特别是疲劳被确认为一个促进因素,由于疲劳导致人犯错误是无数海难事故的根源,包括20世纪最严重的一起海上环境污染事故-Exxon Valdez轮事件.疲劳的影响对航行中的船舶来说是非常危险的,因为疲劳能影响驾驶员的思想行为,以及对事情作出判断或解决复杂问题的能力.通过几个案例来阐述疲劳的危害,以引起船舶管理者和操船人员的重视.同时提出了在航行条件下,驾驶员如何采取一些方式避免或减轻自己疲劳的建议.     

港口国监督中人为因素的检查

港口国监督已逐渐成为保证船舶安全和防污染的重要措施,在防止船舶发生事故方面起到巨大的作用。人为因素一直被认为是海上事故发生的主要原因,本文将从港口国监督检查人为因素防止事故方面进行探讨。     

灰色系统理论在海上交通事故预测中的应用

以某港口2001～2007年海上交通事故统计数据为依据,应用灰色系统预测理论,建立该港口海上交通事故的GM(1,1)模型和UGM(1,1)模型,进行定量计算,结合定性分析,从而预测出该港口2008年海上交通事故的数量,以及2008年各种海上交通事故的比例.     

A study on time constraints and task deviations at sea leading to accidents – a cultural-historical perspective

The high frequency of maritime accidents and incidents occurring at sea has been a major challenge for the maritime industry in the last decades. The majority of these accidents are attributed to seafarers’ poor performance. This, despite the fact that the international maritime domain continues to adopt and update conventions regulating maritime safety to mitigate these accidents from occurring. In this paper, utilising a qualitative research approach, we show through a socio-cultural contextual perspective that time constraints as a major influencing factor in causing task deviations at sea which leads to dangerous situations. We analyse how some of the present barriers in place to prevent accidents at sea are in effect prompt seafarers who are working under time pressure to deviate from their task. Moreover, the paper discusses the social constituents such as job insecurity and the seafarers’ viewpoint towards the ship operators’ commitment to safe ship operations are crucial in motivating seafarers’ deviating from the task at hand when faced with time pressure.     

试论水上交通事故责任认定的不可诉性

对水上交通事故责任认定不服,是否可以提起行政复议或者行政诉讼这一问题,在海事管理机构内部一直持有不同的观点。文章通过对法学的理解,分析了水上交通事故责任认定的特点、行政行为的法理分类和司法判例等诸多方面,提出不服水上交通事故责任认定不宜通过行政诉讼途径解决的观点。