Modeling delay at signalized intersections with channelized right‐turn lanes considering the impact of blockage

This paper presents a probabilistic delay model for signalized intersections with right‐turn channelization lanes considering the possibility of blockage. Right‐turn channelization is used to improve the capacity and to reduce delay at busy intersections with a lot of right‐turns. However, under heavy traffic conditions the through vehicles will likely block the channelization entrance that accrues delay to right‐turn vehicles. If the right‐turn channelization gets blocked frequently, its advantage in reducing the intersection delay is neglected and as a result the channelization lane becomes inefficient and redundant. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) neglects the blockage effect, which may be a reason for low efficiency during peak hours. More importantly, using HCM or other standard traffic control methods without considering the blockage effects would lead to underestimation of the delay. To overcome this issue, the authors proposed delay models by taking into account both deterministic and random aspects of vehicles arrival patterns at signalized intersections. The proposed delay model was validated through VISSIM, a microscopic simulation model. The results showed that the proposed model is very precise and accurately estimates the delay. In addition, it was found that the length of short‐lane section and proportion of right‐turn and through traffic significantly influence the approach delay. For operational purposes, the authors provided a step‐by‐step delay calculation process and presented approach delay estimates for different sets of traffic volumes, signal settings, and short‐lane section lengths. The delay estimates would be useful in evaluating adequacy of the current lengths, identifying the options of extending the short‐lane section length, or changing signal timing to reduce the likelihood of blockage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of yellow-light running at signalized intersections using high-resolution traffic data

Many accidents occurring at signalized intersections are closely related to drivers’ decisions of running through intersections during yellow light, i.e., yellow-light running (YLR). Therefore it is important to understand the relationships between YLR and the factors which contribute to drivers’ decision of YLR. This requires collecting a large amount of YLR cases. However, existing data collection method, which mainly relies on video cameras, has difficulties to collect a large amount of YLR data. In this research, we propose a method to study drivers’ YLR behaviors using high-resolution event-based data from signal control systems. We used 8 months’ high-resolution data collected by two stop-bar detectors at a signalized intersection located in Minnesota and identified over 30,000 YLR cases. To identify the possible reasons for drivers’ decision of YLR, this research further categorized the YLR cases into four types: “in should-go zone”, “in should-stop zone”, “in dilemma zone”, and “in optional zone” according to the driver’s location when signal turns to yellow. Statistical analysis indicates that the mean values of approaching speed and acceleration rate are significantly different for different types of YLR. We also show that there were about 10% of YLR drivers who cannot run through intersection before traffic light turns to red. Furthermore, based on a strong correlation between hourly traffic volume and number of YLR events, this research developed a regression model that can be used to predict the number of YLR events based on hourly flow rate. This research also showed that snowing weather conditions cause more YLR events.     

Effects of intersection field of view on emergent collision avoidance performance at unsignalized intersections: analysis based on driving simulator experiments

Proper intersection sight distance can effectively lower the possibility of intersection accidents. American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (2011) provide a series of recommended dimensions of intersection sight triangles for uncontrolled and stop/yield‐controlled intersections. However, in reality, although the actual intersection design for unsignalized intersections satisfies the requirements of sight distance and clear sight triangle in American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' guideline, there are still a large number of crashes occurring at unsignalized intersections for drivers running stop/yield signs or failing to slow down. This paper presents a driving simulator study on pre‐crash at intersections under three intersection field of view (IFOV) conditions. The aim was to explore whether better IFOVs at unsignalized intersections improve their emergent collision avoidance performance under an assumption of valid intersection sight distance design. The experimental results show drivers' ability to identify potential hazards to be significantly affected by their IFOVs. As drivers' IFOV improved, drivers were more likely to choose braking actions to avoid collisions. Better IFOVs were also associated with significant increases in brake time to intersection and significant reductions in deceleration rate and crash rate, thus leading to a lower risk of traffic crash involvement. The results indicate that providing a better IFOV for drivers at intersections should be encouraged in practical applications in order to improve drivers' crash avoidance capabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Operational analysis of the contraflow left-turn lane design at signalized intersections in China

The primary objective of the study was to evaluate the impacts of an unconventional left-turn treatment called contraflow left-turn lane (CLL) on the operational performance of left-turn movement at signalized intersections. An analytical model was developed for estimating the capacity of left-turn movement at signalized intersections with the CLL design. The capacity model was calibrated and validated using field data collected at six approaches at five signalized intersections in the city of Handan, China. The results of field data analyses showed that the use of CLL design improved the capacity of left-turn movements. However, the capacity gains with the CLL design were quite stochastic considering the randomness in the arrivals of left-turning vehicles. Analytical delay models were proposed for estimating the delay to left-turning vehicles at intersections with the CLL design. A procedure was also proposed for optimizing the location of the upstream median opening and the green interval of the pre-signal. Simulation analyses were conducted to compare the delay experienced by the left-turning and through vehicles at signalized intersections with the conventional left-turn lane, the CLL and another unconventional left-turn treatment entitled “tandem design”. The results showed that both CLL and tandem designs outperformed conventional left-turn lane design; and the CLL design generated less delay to both the left-turning and through vehicles as compared with the tandem design.     

Modeling and controlling an isolated urban intersection based on cooperative vehicles

In this paper, we propose a new approach for controlling the traffic at isolated intersections. We assume that all vehicles are equipped with on-board units (ITS station) that make them able to wirelessly negotiate the “right of way” according to the measurements done by the positioning system during their travel. A vehicle is allowed to cross the intersection if the green color is displayed to the driver in an on-board screen. The control aims to smooth the traffic through the sequence of vehicles authorized to traverse the intersection. The main challenge raised with the assumption is that the sequence must be dynamically formed by a real time application. The dynamic behavior of the traffic is considered discrete, in order to determine the switching rule according to the instantly observed events. We propose a model based on Timed Petri Nets with Multipliers (TPNM) which allows us to propose the control policy through the structural analysis. The resulting switching rules are very simplistic and efficient for isolated intersections. Indeed, microscopic simulations show that they perform as well as the optimal sequence based on the detection of vehicles at the entrance of the intersection. Moreover, the proposed approach has been tested through a real intersection.     

Using vehicle simulations to understand strategies for accommodating oversize,overweight vehicles at roundabouts

There is considerable evidence that roundabouts are the safest and most efficient form of traffic control for most intersections. The potential use of roundabouts with all their inherent benefits may be greatly diminished if they are not able to accommodate oversize/overweight (OSOW) vehicles, sometimes called “Superloads.” The problem, therefore, is how to accommodate OSOW vehicles without sacrificing the integrity, safety and other benefits of roundabouts.This study uses TORUS software to design six standard roundabouts using guidance from the latest Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) roundabout guide. Six OSOW check vehicles from the Wisconsin Department of Transportation’s library were used to modify the designs to accommodate these selected check vehicles at the roundabouts. These six OSOW check vehicles were used to conduct swept path analysis using AutoTURN software at the selected six standard roundabouts for right turn, through, and left turn simulations. The space requirements for these maneuvers were analyzed in detail. Various strategies for better accommodating these OSOW check vehicles were suggested and experimented with in this study using AutoTURN software simulations. The effectiveness of using a straight passage through the center island for OSOW vehicles was also addressed in this study and was found to be effective. All the strategies investigated in this study proved to be effective in accommodating OSOW vehicles when compared to conventional ways of using a roundabout. The needed total truck apron was calculated and used as a reference to determine an effective strategy for accommodating OSOW vehicles. This research can be used as guidance for transportation engineers, planners and decision makers to determine possible ways of designing a roundabout at an intersection where certain OSOW vehicles are expected.     

Optimal distance between two branches of uncontrolled split intersection

This work examines the possibility of splitting an uncontrolled “X” intersection into two adjacent uncontrolled “T” intersections. This splitting aims to improve both the movement and safety of traffic. The problem addressed in this work is how to determine the optimal distance between the two adjacent T intersections. The best type of split, based on previous studies, is the one in which vehicles approach first the right turn and then the left turn in both directions of travel. The main conclusions drawn in this work refer to this preferred type. The optimal distance is arrived at on the basis of an objective function of minimal delay subject to blocking queues, passing (another vehicle) probabilities, budget limitations and safety threshold. The input data consist of 12 traffic volumes associated with all the traffic movements of an X intersection. The main findings are: (a) under a medium level of traffic volume, the blocking queue lengths are of the order of hundreds of meters and are very sensitive to the increase of volume toward and beyond saturation flow; (b) the passing probability function along the road segment between the two adjacent T intersections increases with the length of the segment and stabilizes at a length of a few hundred meters; (c) there is a relationship between accident frequency (accident rate and density) and the distance between the split intersections. An example of this relationship is introduced; and (d) the optimal distance between the two adjacent T intersections is found not only theoretically, but also practically for possible implementations.     

An exact modelling of the uniform control traffic delay in undersaturated signalized intersections

The average delay experienced by vehicles at a signalized intersection defines the level of service (LOS) at which the intersection operates. A major challenge in this regard is the ability to accurately estimate all the components underlying the overall control delay, including the uniform, incremental and initial queue delays. This paper tackles this challenging task by proposing a novel exact model of the uniform control delay component with a view to enhancing the accuracy of the existing approximate models, notably, the one reported in the Highway Capacity Manual 2010. Both graphical and analytical proofs are employed to derive exact closed‐form expressions for the uniform control delay at undersaturated signalized intersections. The high degree of accuracy of the proposed models is analysed through extensive simulations to demonstrate their abilities to exactly characterize the performance of real‐life intersections in terms of the resulting vehicle delay. Unlike the existing widely adopted uniform delay models, which tend to overestimate the LOS of real‐life intersections, the delay models introduced in this paper have the merit of exactly capturing such a LOS. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accuracy of distance‐based travel time decomposition in probe vehicle systems

Probe vehicle data (PVD) are commonly used for area‐wide measurements of travel time in road networks. In this context, travel times usually refer to fixed edges of an underlying (digital) map. That means measured travel times have to be transformed into so‐called link travel times first. This paper analyzes a common method being applied for solving this task (distance‐based travel time decomposition). It is shown that, in general, its inherent imprecision must not be neglected. Instead, it might cause a serious misinterpretation of data if potential errors in the context of travel time decomposition are ignored. For this purpose, systematic as well as maximum deviations between “decomposed” and “true” link travel times are mathematically analyzed. By that, divergent statements in the literature about the accuracy of PVD are harmonized. Moreover, conditions for the applicability of the so‐called distance‐proportion method are derived depending on the permitted error level. Three examples ranging from pure theory to real world confirm the analytical findings and underline the problems resulting from distance‐based travel time decomposition at local level, for example, at individual intersections. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A continuous-flow-intersection-lite design and traffic control for oversaturated bottleneck intersections

Oversaturation has become a severe problem for urban intersections, especially the bottleneck intersections that cause queue spillover and network gridlock. Further improvement of oversaturated arterial traffic using traditional mitigation strategies, which aim to improve intersection capacity by merely adjusting signal control parameters, becomes challenging since exiting strategies may (or already) have reached their “theoretical” limits of optimum. Under such circumstance, several novel unconventional intersection designs, including the well-recognized continuous flow intersection (CFI) design, are originated to improve the capacity at bottleneck intersections. However, the requirement of installing extra sub-intersections in a CFI design would increase vehicular stops and, more critically, is unacceptable in tight urban areas with closed spaced intersections. To address these issues, this research proposes a simplified continuous flow intersection (called CFI-Lite) design that is ideal for arterials with short links. It benefits from the CFI concept to enable simultaneous move of left-turn and through traffic at bottleneck intersections, but does not need installation of sub-intersections. Instead, the upstream intersection is utilized to allocate left-turn traffic to the displaced left-turn lane. It is found that the CFI-Lite design performs superiorly to the conventional design and regular CFI design in terms of bottleneck capacity. Pareto capacity improvement for every traffic stream in an arterial system can be achieved under effortless conditions. Case study using data collected at Foothill Blvd in Los Angeles, CA, shows that the new design is beneficial in more than 90% of the 408 studied cycles. The testing also shows that the average improvements of green bandwidths for the synchronized phases are significant.     

A probabilistic approach to calculate capacity of signalized intersections with a red light camera

In recent years, red light cameras (RLCs) have been installed at many signalized intersections. The main reason behind installing RLCs is to reduce intersection‐related accidents caused because of a driver's behavior to cross the intersection when the signal turns red. By nature, if the driver is aware of the presence of RLC his or her driving behavior is bound to change. This behavioral change, however, may be intentional or unintentional. This may influence the utilization of yellow intervals resulting in a possible increase in dilemma zone, which in turn, may reduce the service capacity of the intersection. To accurately capture this capacity reduction, we present a probabilistic approach to modify the saturation flow rate formula in the Highway Capacity Manual that is currently used to calculate the capacity of signalized intersections. We introduce a new factor in the saturation flow rate calculation called red light reduction factor, to account for the capacity reduction owing to RLCs. Using field data from Baltimore, Maryland, we establish a relationship for the red light reduction factor. We then show that capacity of RLC‐equipped intersections is generally lower than that without RLCs. Although the percentage reduction in capacity of a single intersection may not seem significant, the cumulative impact of such reduction in a heavily traveled road network may be quite significant, resulting in significant loss in travel time. In future works, the systemwide capacity reduction owing to the presence of RLCs can be studied in congested transportation networks. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A virtual vehicle probe model for time-dependent travel time estimation on signalized arterials

Estimation of time-dependent arterial travel time is a challenging task because of the interrupted nature of urban traffic flows. Many research efforts have been devoted to this topic, but their successes are limited and most of them can only be used for offline purposes due to the limited availability of traffic data from signalized intersections. In this paper, we describe a real-time arterial data collection and archival system developed at the University of Minnesota, followed by an innovative algorithm for time-dependent arterial travel time estimation using the archived traffic data. The data collection system simultaneously collects high-resolution “event-based” traffic data including every vehicle actuations over loop detector and every signal phase changes from multiple intersections. Using the “event-based” data, we estimate time-dependent travel time along an arterial by tracing a virtual probe vehicle. At each time step, the virtual probe has three possible maneuvers: acceleration, deceleration and no-speed-change. The maneuver decision is determined by its own status and surrounding traffic conditions, which can be estimated based on the availability of traffic data at intersections. An interesting property of the proposed model is that travel time estimation errors can be self-corrected, because the trajectory differences between a virtual probe vehicle and a real one can be reduced when both vehicles meet a red signal phase and/or a vehicle queue. Field studies at a 11-intersection arterial corridor along France Avenue in Minneapolis, MN, demonstrate that the proposed model can generate accurate time-dependent travel times under various traffic conditions.     

Walking,cycling and the urban form: A Heckman selection model of active travel mode and distance by young adolescents

Physical inactivity of children and adolescents is a major public health challenge of the modern era but, when adequately promoted and nurtured, active travel offers immediate health benefits and forms future sustainable and healthy travel habits. This study explores jointly the choice and the extent of active travel of young adolescents while considering walking and cycling as distinct travel forms, controlling for objective urban form measures, and taking both a “street-buffer” looking at the immediate home surroundings and a “transport-zone” looking at wider neighborhoods. A Heckman selection model represents the distance covered while cycling (walking) given the mode choice being bicycle (walk) for a representative sample of 10–15 year-olds from the Capital Region of Denmark extracted from the Danish national travel survey. Results illustrate the necessity of different urban environments for walking and cycling, as the former relates to “street-buffer” urban form measures and the latter also to “transport-zone ” ones. Results also show that lessening the amount and the density of car traffic, diminishing the movement of heavy vehicles in local streets, reducing the conflict points with the density of intersections, and intervening on crash frequency and severity, would increase the probability and the amount of active travel by young adolescents. Last, results indicate that zones in rural areas and at a higher percentage of immigrants are likely to have lower probability and amount of active travel by young adolescents.     

The evaluation of active bus-priority signal routes

In an attempt to provide priority facilities for high occupancy vehicles, many cities have investigated or installed active bus priority signals at selected intersections. This paper describes one such installation at the intersection of Bell Street and Oriel Road in Heidelberg, Victoria, Australia. In particular, it describes the impact of the signals on bus performance levels and on non-priority traffic performance levels. An evaluation is performed taking account of the costs of the installation, the changes in the amount of fuel consumed and the changes in the perceived, budgeted delay of people passing through the intersection. Perceived, budgeted delay is defined so as to take account of the variability of delay and the perception of small delay changes. The evaluation at this site showed that, for various reasons, it was difficult to justify the priority signals at this isolated intersection.The evaluation is then extended to the concept of a route of bus priority signal intersections. A simple model is built to simulate the performance of such a priority route and the evaluation repeated. As a result of using perceived delay as a measure of performance, it is then shown that although the priority intersections along the route may not be individually justifiable, the priority route as a whole may show considerable net benefits. These benefits will occur given that there are greater than a critical number of priority intersections on the route. This critical number will depend on the assumptions made in the priority route model.It is concluded that re-evaluation of bus priority signal intersections along the lines suggested in the paper may yield a number of viable bus priority intersections and bus priority routes which were previously considered to be non-viable.     

The private and social cost efficiency of port hinterland container distribution through a regional logistics system

Increasingly, the debate on freight transport and logistics involves the challenge of sustainable development. Key objectives of sustainable or “green” freight logistics systems are the mitigation of negative environmental and human health effects of distribution operations and the realization of a major modal shift in transport preferences, while at the same time achieving internal generalized cost efficiency and quality of services. Pursuing these goals requires the introduction of a range of measures. These measures call for private and public actors to take up various initiatives and adopt policies. Usually, it is more effective to combine different actions into an integrated package of measures than to introduce single instruments in isolation.This article explores the nexus between sustainability and port hinterland container logistics. In particular, the methodology and results of an empirical analysis based on applications of a network programming tool called the “interport model” are presented and discussed. The model enables an examination of all possible effects on inland container flows and their associated internal and external costs due to public and private initiatives in the field of port hinterland container logistics. The empirical analysis aims to evaluate the impact of a set of simultaneous policy options and operational measures on the competitiveness and sustainability of hinterland multimodal distribution of import and export containers handled at the seaports of the Campania region located in Southern Italy. The loading units can transit through the dry port facilities (the so called “interports”) located in the same region and/or through extra regional railway terminals, before reaching their ultimate inland destinations or the seaports. The integrated package of measures simulated by means of the model includes: (i) infrastructure policy, (ii) improvements of rail services, (iii) regulatory changes in terms of customs authorizations and procedures, (iv) removal of technical and legal barriers to fair and non-discriminatory competition in the market of rail traction between regional seaports and interports, (v) new business models integrating container logistics operations between seaports and interports, and (vi) social marginal cost charging of transport operations. Once this package of instruments is introduced, higher private and social cost efficiency of port hinterland container distribution through the investigated regional logistics system can be achieved. For instance, it has been estimated an annual saving of the order of about 12,660 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions from transport corresponding to an external cost reduction of 0.27 million euros from the observed real life situation, whereas the estimated saving in terms of air pollution (CO, NO_x, PM, SO₂, VOC) from transport is approximately 220 tonnes per year corresponding to an external benefit of 1.31 million euros.The most immediate priority appears to be the customs and intermodal logistics integration of seaports and interports by means of full implementation of the “extended gateway” concept as a way to increase the rail share of modal split and improve the overall cost efficiency of the system. In addition, the simultaneous introduction of a social marginal cost charging policy can contribute to make the regional interports a viable solution to expand the hinterland reach of the regional seaport cluster.     

Optimal funding allocation strategies for safety improvements on urban intersections

Urban intersections crashes cause significant economic loss. The safety management process undertaken by most states in the United States is referred to as Highway Safety Improvement Program and consists of three standardized steps: (i) identification of critical crash locations, (ii) development of countermeasures, and (iii) resource allocation among identified crash locations. Often these three steps are undertaken independently, with limited detail of each step at the state planning agencies. The literature review underlines the importance of the third step, and the lack of sophisticated tools available to state planning agencies for leveraging information obtained from the first two steps. Further, non-strategic approaches and unavailability of methods for evaluating policies may lead to sub-optimal funding allocation. This paper overcomes these limitations and proposes multiple optimal resource allocation strategies for improvements at urban intersections that maximize safety benefits, under budget and policy constraints. Proposed policy measures based on benefits maximization (economic competitiveness), equitable allocation (equity), and relaxation of mutually exclusiveness (multiple alternatives at one location) produce significantly different alternative and fund allocation. The proposed models are applied to selected intersections in four counties of southeast Michigan. Results reinforce the applicability of the strategies/policies and tools developed in this paper for safety project funding allocation on critical urban intersections.     

Prohibited–permitted right-turn phasing strategy based on capacity analysis of right-turn movements

In traffic-crowded metropolitan areas, such as Shanghai and Beijing in China, right-turn vehicles that operate with a permitted phase at signalized intersections are normally permitted to filter through large numbers of pedestrians and bicycles. To alleviate such conflicts and improve safety, traffic engineers in Shanghai introduced a prohibited–permitted right-turn operation, adding a subphase to the permitted phase in which right-turns are prohibited. Unfortunately, the prohibited subphase would reduce the capacity of right-turn movements when it prohibits right turns even if there are few pedestrians and bicycles crossing the street. This paper aims at quantifying the impact of both non-vehicular flows and the prohibited subphase on the right-turn capacity, and then proposes a strategy to determine appropriate prohibited–permitted right-turn operation that minimizes the capacity reduction caused by the prohibited subphase. To achieve this goal, we improved the pedestrian and bicycle adjustment factor described in the Highway Capacity Manual by taking into account: (1) the variety in space competition between pedestrians and bicycles, and (2) the effect of two conflict zones in each phase on right-turn operation. In addition, we revised the capacity estimation model in the Highway Capacity Manual, and developed a model based on bicycle/pedestrian volume fluctuation to describe the capacity reduction due to both non-vehicular flows and the prohibited subphase. Furthermore, we proposed a timing strategy for the onset and duration of appropriate prohibited subphase. When bicycle and pedestrian volumes are low, the actuated strategy turns to the permitted phase. When these volumes are moderate, the strategy turns to the prohibited–permitted operation. With the volumes increasing, the prohibited subphase onset advances and duration increases. In these two scenarios, the new strategy has higher right-turn capacity than the current pretimed prohibited–permitted operation. Unfortunately, when bicycle and pedestrian volumes are high, the strategy yields similar right-turn capacity. However, the new prohibited subphase has less potential vehicle–bicycle and vehicle–pedestrian conflicts.     

Development of a delay model for unsignalized intersections applicable to traffic assignment

Abstract

This paper develops a model for estimating unsignalized intersection delays which can be applied to traffic assignment (TA) models. Current unsignalized intersection delay models have been developed mostly for operational purposes, and demand detailed geometric data and complicated procedures to estimate delay. These difficulties result in unsignalized intersection delays being ignored or assumed as a constant in TA models.

Video and vehicle license plate number recognition methods are used to collect traffic volume data and to measure delays during peak and off-peak traffic periods at four unsignalized intersections in the city of Tehran, Iran. Data on geometric design elements are measured through field surveys. An empirical approach is used to develop a delay model as a function of influencing factors based on 5- and 15-min time intervals. The proposed model estimates delays on each approach based on total traffic volumes, rights-of-way of the subject approach and the intersection friction factor. The effect of conflicting traffic flows is considered implicitly by using the intersection friction factor. As a result, the developed delay model guarantees the convergence of TA solution methods.

A comparison between delay models performed using different time intervals shows that the coefficients of determination, R ², increases from 43.2% to 63.1% as the time interval increases from 5- to 15-min. The US Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) delay model (which is widely used in Iran) is validated using the field data and it is found that it overestimates delay, especially in the high delay ranges.     

Signalized intersections with variable flow rates: II A model for delay estimation

This second part of our work develops a model for delay estimation at intersections whose traffic signal controls are continuously being updated. Generally, these traffic signals are centrally controlled. The foundation for the delay estimation model is based on a queuing theory model called “Preemptive resume discipline for M/G/1 with two priority levels.” This queuing model assumes that two customers arrive at acertain point by a Poisson arrival process, and that one customer has service priority over the second customer. The analogy for the case of intersection control is that the preferred customers are the red lights and the secondary customers are the vehicles. In order to adapt the model to the realistic behavior of vehicle traffic at continuously adjusted signals, components are derived to modify the model. The simulation results of the first part of this work are used to calculate adjustment factors that fairly accurately reproduce the simulated delays. This gives rise to the advantage of using in practice a closed mathematical model, in particular when trying to optimize the operation of signalized intersections at the network level.     

Dynamic process model of mass effects on travel demand

Whereas transportation planners commonly predict the negative impacts of mass transportation, there is increasing empirical evidence of the existence of positive mass effects, whereby increased use of a mode by the ‘mass’ will generally increase its attractiveness for future travellers. In this paper we consider the dynamic impact of such an effect on the problem of travel demand forecasting, with particular regards to social network effects. Our proposed modelling approach is inspired by literature from social physics, evolutionary game theory and marketing. For simplicity of exposition, our model is specified for a scenario in which (a) there is a binary choice between two mobility lifestyles, referred to as car-oriented and transit-oriented, and (b) there are two population groups, where one is the “leading” or “innovative” population group and the other the “following” or “imitating” population group. This latter distinction follows the rather well-known Bass model from the marketing literature (1969). We develop the transition probabilities and transition dynamics. We illustrate with a numerical case study that despite lower intrinsic utility for the transit lifestyle, significant changes towards this lifestyle can be achieved by considering congestion, service improvements and mass effects. We further illustrate that mass effects can be positive or negative. In all cases we explore the sensitivity of our conclusions to the assumed parameter values.