The future mobility of the world population

On average a person spends 1.1 h per day traveling and devotes a predictable fraction of income to travel. We show that these time and money budgets are stable over space and time and can be used for projecting future levels of mobility and transport mode. The fixed travel money budget requires that mobility rises nearly in proportion with income. Covering greater distances within the same fixed travel time budget requires that travelers shift to faster modes of transport. The choice of future transport modes is also constrained by path dependence because transport infrastructures change only slowly. In addition, demand for low-speed public transport is partially determined by urban population densities and land-use characteristics. We present a model that incorporates these constraints, which we use for projecting traffic volume and the share of the major motorized modes of transport—automobiles, buses, trains and high speed transport (mainly aircraft)—for 11 regions and the world through 2050. We project that by 2050 the average world citizen will travel as many kilometers as the average West European in 1990. The average American's mobility will rise by a factor of 2.6 by 2050, to 58,000 km/year. The average Indian travels 6000 km/year by 2050, comparable with West European levels in the early 1970s. Today, world citizens move 23 billion km in total; by 2050 that figure grows to 105 billion.     

Mass rapid transit systems for cities in the developing world

Abstract

In 2004, one of the biggest ferry operators in Norway was found guilty of having intentionally attempted to defraud the state of about 113 million Norwegian kroner in subsidies by underreporting revenues and overstating costs during the period 1992–2002. The company and five of the top managers were convicted and the case was regarded as one of the most serious subsidy offences ever committed in Norway. The aim of this article is to show that standardized revenue and cost norm models from the state can deter operators from committing such offences and when relevant detecting the fraud attempts at an early stage. Our model suggests that the operator in question overstated costs by about 19% and that the actual subsidy fraud attempt was about three times higher than concluded by the Court.     

Measuring social effective speed to improve sustainable mobility policies in developing countries

Over the last few decades, many developing countries have experienced car fleet growth, which has contributed to congestion, increased travel times, and deteriorated public transport reliability and punctuality. However, alternatives to urban mobility can be found by creating policies to stimulate sustainable transportation modes with equal opportunities for all citizens. In this paper, measures of social effective speeds are presented to improve sustainable urban mobility policies in developing countries. Data from the 2018 Origin-Destination Survey of the Metropolitan Region of Recife (Brazil) were used to estimate social effective speeds. The results showed that motorized modes had lower effective speed than non-motorized modes. In addition, total external costs were $2 billion USD per year. The social effective speed will be valuable if inserted in sustainable urban mobility policies in developing countries.     

The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO₂ emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and “avoiding dangerous climate change” objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of −50% to −80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.     

A multinomial logit car use model for a megacity of the developing world: Istanbul

The increase in motor vehicle use is one of the important factors that cause traffic congestion, especially in megacities. Thus, the reasons behind this increase require serious attention. This paper offers an analysis of this kind, for a megacity from the developing world, Istanbul. A stratified multinomial logit model accounting for the availability of a second vehicle in the household is estimated for a sample drawn from a questionnaire to gather information of actual car use in Istanbul. This estimation is only possible through a unique data generation process that converts actual preferences into a choice study setting. In addition, a simulation study, generally utilized in the analyses of discrimination between certain layers of society, and a scenario analysis related to changes in income are also included in the paper for a better understanding of the nature of the topic. The results show that the behavior of households with a second vehicle available and not available varies significantly due to household, individual and professional-related characteristics.     

Capital structure in the world airline industry

This article presents a managerial approach to the airline capital structure through a definition of an efficient frontier. To develop the analysis a technique called data envelopment analysis was used. This paper tests the hypothesis that airline industry's financial performance depends on companies keeping a reasonable level of leverage and also seeks to establish this level. The research identifies the biggest airline companies which use capital efficiently to generate return with a low level of fixed assets. In these companies, shareholders' capital represents at least 40% of all funds employed. It could be seen by simplifying the analysis that it is possible to identify the most and the least efficient companies by studying their indebtedness and return on assets. A large proportion of the companies are moving to reduce their level of indebtedness and raise their returns over the course of time. The analysis by country revealed that countries do not offer comparative advantages, with the companies' performance depending fundamentally on their management.     

Virtual mobility and organizational reality – a note on the mobility needs in knowledge organisations

This article addresses the potential for reducing international work-related air travelling through the use of information and communication technologies such as videoconferences and e-learning in knowledge companies. It looks at the potential for reducing travel related to such things as meetings and teaching. In the absence of regulations, however, we do not find potential for reducing the number of trips of this type because they do not facilitate face-to-face contacts. Therefore the conclusion is, that policy and planning have to look for other options for pursuing ‘sustainable mobility’ policies in the future.     

处在不确定的商业世界

组织所面临的混乱现实 也许混沌理论会成为对管理产生最重要影响的理论之一,因为借助于混沌理论我们可以理解以往无法理解的现象,找到组织管理的全新方式.我们可以先看看混沌理论的三种基本状态:第一,稳定均衡.在这种状态下,各组成要素总是处于或者能够迅速回到平衡状态.第二,有限度动荡(或混沌).这是一种有序和无序混合的状态.在这种状态下,有许多无法预测的事情和变化,但是一个系统行为的基本模式是可以确定的.第三,爆破性动荡.这种状态没有任何程序和模式,比如去年圣诞节的世纪大海啸就可以看作是这种状态的例子.     

Assessing the impact of long-term mobility choice motivation and short-term mobility means connotation on the use intention of electric cars in rural areas

In this study several hypotheses comprising a heuristic framework derived from rational-choice (RC) premises and regarding some potentially influencing variables on future use intention of different vehicle types are tested with a rural area sample. Especially the differentiation between long-term vs. short-term as well as functional/rational vs. extra-functional/emotional motivators is assessed. Results suggest a predominance of functional motivators and rational connotations over extra-functional/emotional ones. The models to check whether short-term or long-term effects dominate did not clearly confirm a predominance of long-term factors as hypothesized. In several regression models a moderating effect of rational short-term connotations on different long-term motivators was found, thus contributing notably to the prediction of future vehicle use-intention. The need for further research and theory-driven modeling is briefly discussed.     

Spatial structure and mobility

The aim of this paper is to contribute to a clearer understanding of the extent to which the spatial structure and planning of the residential environment can explain mobility, in general, and the choice of mode of transport, in particular, and what spatial planning and traffic management aspects play a significant role in this. The research showed that certain aspects of the planned environment do indeed have a clear impact on mobility. These effects are particularly apparent in trips made for shopping and social or recreational purposes. It is mainly personal characteristics that largely or almost entirely determine commuter traffic. An integral approach to the planning of residential areas is required to achieve any great changes in mobility. Only then may we expect spatial planning to have any significant impact on car use.     

世界上肯定有免费的午餐?--兼评《80/20定律》

有人发现管理实践中存在着这样的经验规律,在众多影响组织成败的因素中,起决定性作用的往往是少数,而起辅助性作用的因素则占多数,这被称为"关键少数、一般多数"法则,按习惯简称"80/20法则".     

The potential of mobility as a service bundles as a mobility management tool

Transportation - The Mobility as a Service (MaaS) concept has recently taken the transport industry by storm. However, as applications and research on it are limited, there is still little evidence...     

Multi-agent simulation of individual mobility behavior in carpooling

Carpooling is an emerging alternative transportation mode that is eco-friendly and sustainable as it enables commuters to save time, travel resource, reduce emission and traffic congestion. The procedure of carpooling consists of a number of steps namely; (i) create a motive to carpool, (ii) communicate this motive with other agents, (iii) negotiate a plan with the interested agents, (iv) execute the agreed plans, and (v) provide a feedback to all concerned agents. In this paper, we present a conceptual design of an agent-based model (ABM) for the carpooling a that serves as a proof of concept. Our model for the carpooling application is a computational model that is used for simulating the interactions of autonomous agents and to analyze the effects of change in factors related to the infrastructure, behavior and cost. In our carpooling application, we use agent profiles and social networks to initiate our agent communication model and then employ a route matching algorithm, and a utility function to trigger the negotiation process between agents. We developed a prototype of our agent-based carpooling application based on the work presented in this paper and carried out a validation study of our results with real data collected in Flanders, Belgium.     

Gender inequality in mobility and mode choice in Pakistan

Using the nationally representative dataset of the 2007 Pakistan Time-Use Survey, this paper examines gender differences in daily trip rate, mode choice, travel duration, and purpose of travel, which are previously unreported because of limited data availability. Wide gender mobility gaps are observed in the country, where women are less likely to travel, are half as mobile as men and may rely heavily on walking. The particular social and cultural context of the country, that renders women as private, secluded and family honor, seems influential in shaping their mobility and choice of activities. Demographic factors such as age, household income, and marital status significantly decrease female mobility levels. Hence, these findings call for a gender-based culturally responsive transportation policy in the country.