Integrated solution for anomalous driving detection based on BeiDou/GPS/IMU measurements

There has been an increasing role played by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications in recent decades. In particular, centimeter/decimetre positioning accuracy is required for some safety related applications, such as lane control, collision avoidance, and intelligent speed assistance. Lane-level Anomalous driving detection underpins these safety-related ITS applications. The two major issues associated with such detection are (1) accessing high accuracy vehicle positioning and dynamic parameters; and (2) extraction of irregular driving patterns from such information. This paper introduces a new integrated framework for detecting lane-level anomalous driving, by combining Global Positioning Systems (GPS), BeiDou, and Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) with advanced algorithms. Specifically, we use Unscented Particle Filter (UPF) to perform data fusion with different positioning sources. The detection of different types of Anomalous driving is achieved based on the application of a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) with a newly introduced velocity-based indicator. The framework proposed in this paper yield significantly improved accuracy in terms of positioning and Anomalous driving detection compared to state-of-the-art, while offering an economically viable solution for performing these tasks.     

Current map-matching algorithms for transport applications: State-of-the art and future research directions

Map-matching algorithms integrate positioning data with spatial road network data (roadway centrelines) to identify the correct link on which a vehicle is travelling and to determine the location of a vehicle on a link. A map-matching algorithm could be used as a key component to improve the performance of systems that support the navigation function of intelligent transport systems (ITS). The required horizontal positioning accuracy of such ITS applications is in the range of 1 m to 40 m (95%) with relatively stringent requirements placed on integrity (quality), continuity and system availability. A number of map-matching algorithms have been developed by researchers around the world using different techniques such as topological analysis of spatial road network data, probabilistic theory, Kalman filter, fuzzy logic, and belief theory. The performances of these algorithms have improved over the years due to the application of advanced techniques in the map matching processes and improvements in the quality of both positioning and spatial road network data. However, these algorithms are not always capable of supporting ITS applications with high required navigation performance, especially in difficult and complex environments such as dense urban areas. This suggests that research should be directed at identifying any constraints and limitations of existing map matching algorithms as a prerequisite for the formulation of algorithm improvements. The objectives of this paper are thus to uncover the constraints and limitations by an in-depth literature review and to recommend ideas to address them. This paper also highlights the potential impacts of the forthcoming European Galileo system and the European Geostationary Overlay Service (EGNOS) on the performance of map matching algorithms. Although not addressed in detail, the paper also presents some ideas for monitoring the integrity of map-matching algorithms. The map-matching algorithms considered in this paper are generic and do not assume knowledge of ‘future’ information (i.e. based on either cost or time). Clearly, such data would result in relatively simple map-matching algorithms.     

A robust,data-driven methodology for real-world driving cycle development

This paper develops a robust, data-driven Markov Chain method to capture real-world behaviour in a driving cycle without deconstructing the raw velocity–time sequence. The accuracy of the driving cycles developed using this method was assessed on nine metrics as a function of the number of velocity states, driving cycle length and number of Markov repetitions. The road grade was introduced using vehicle specific power and a velocity penalty. The method was demonstrated on a corpus of 1180 km from a trial of electric scooters. The accuracies of the candidate driving cycles depended most strongly on the number of Markov repetitions. The best driving cycle used 135 velocity modes, was 500 s and captured the corpus behaviour to within 5% after 1,000,000 Markov repetitions. In general, the best driving cycle reproduced the corpus behaviour better when road grade was included.     

Delay to major street through vehicles at two-way stop-controlled intersections

This paper describes a methodology for predicting the delay to major street through vehicles at two-way stop-controlled intersections. This delay is incurred when major street left-turn demand exceeds the available storage area and blocks the adjacent through lane. The through lane blockage problem does not generally occur with significant frequency on streets with divided cross sections that have left-turn bays or lanes; however, it frequently occurs on undivided streets due to their lack of left-turn storage. To minimize this delay, through drivers often merge with vehicles in the adjacent through lane—if there is an adequate gap for them to safely merge into. If there is no merge opportunity, then the through drivers will stay in the inside lane until the queue ahead dissipates. The through vehicle delay predicted by the methodology was found to be relatively small (i.e. less than 5 s veh⁻¹) when compared with delays commonly incurred by non-priority movements at unsignalized intersections. However, when expressed in terms of total vehicle hours of delay, the effect can be quite significant. In general, through vehicle delay increases with increasing approach flow rate and left-turn percentage. However, at flow rates in excess of about 1400 veh h⁻¹, delays increase very rapidly and there is evidence that larger left-turn percentages may have lower delays. ©     

Effects of low speed limits on freeway traffic flow

Recent years have seen a renewed interest in Variable Speed Limit (VSL) strategies. New opportunities for VSL as a freeway metering mechanism or a homogenization scheme to reduce speed differences and lane changing maneuvers are being explored. This paper examines both the macroscopic and microscopic effects of different speed limits on a traffic stream, especially when adopting low speed limits. To that end, data from a VSL experiment carried out on a freeway in Spain are used. Data include vehicle counts, speeds and occupancy per lane, as well as lane changing rates for three days, each with a different fixed speed limit (80 km/h, 60 km/h, and 40 km/h). Results reveal some of the mechanisms through which VSL affects traffic performance, specifically the flow and speed distribution across lanes, as well as the ensuing lane changing maneuvers. It is confirmed that the lower the speed limit, the higher the occupancy to achieve a given flow. This result has been observed even for relatively high flows and low speed limits. For instance, a stable flow of 1942 veh/h/lane has been measured with the 40 km/h speed limit in force. The corresponding occupancy was 33%, doubling the typical occupancy for this flow in the absence of speed limits. This means that VSL strategies aiming to restrict the mainline flow on a freeway by using low speed limits will need to be applied carefully, avoiding conditions as the ones presented here, where speed limits have a reduced ability to limit flows. On the other hand, VSL strategies trying to get the most from the increased vehicle storage capacity of freeways under low speed limits might be rather promising. Additionally, results show that lower speed limits increase the speed differences across lanes for moderate demands. This, in turn, also increases the lane changing rate. This means that VSL strategies aiming to homogenize traffic and reduce lane changing activity might not be successful when adopting such low speed limits. In contrast, lower speed limits widen the range of flows under uniform lane flow distributions, so that, even for moderate to low demands, the under-utilization of any lane is avoided. These findings are useful for the development of better traffic models that are able to emulate these effects. Moreover, they are crucial for the implementation and assessment of VSL strategies and other traffic control algorithms.     

Controlled mechanical vibration applied to driver’s right heel to sustain alertness: Effects on cardiovascular behavior

Vehicle-related countermeasures to sustain driver’s alertness might improve traffic safety. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of somatosensory 20 Hz mechanical vibration, applied to driver’s right heel during prolonged, simulated, monotonous driving, on their cardiovascular hemodynamic behavior. In 12 healthy young male volunteers, during 90-min periods of simulated monotonous driving, we compared cardiovascular variables during application of 20 Hz mechanical vibration with 1.5 Hz as a control and with no vibration. The parameters recorded were indices of key cardiovascular hemodynamic phenomena, i.e., blood pressure as an indicator of stress, cardiac output, and total peripheral-vascular resistance. The principle results were that all conditions increased the mean blood pressure, and elicited a vascular-dominant reaction pattern typically observed in monotonous driving tasks. However, mean blood pressure and total peripheral-vascular resistance during the monotonous task were significantly decreased in those receiving the 20 Hz vibration as compared with 1.5 Hz and with no vibration. The observed differences indicate the cardiovascular system being more relieved from monotonous driving stress with the 20 Hz vibration. The major conclusion is that applying 20 Hz mechanical vibration to the right heel during long-distance driving in non-sleepy drivers could facilitate more physiologically appropriate status for vehicle operation and could be a potential vehicular countermeasure technology.     

Estimation of driving style in naturalistic highway traffic using maneuver transition probabilities

Accurately estimating driving styles is crucial to designing useful driver assistance systems and vehicle control systems for autonomous driving that match how people drive. This paper presents a novel way to identify driving style not in terms of the durations or frequencies of individual maneuver states, but rather the transition patterns between them to see how they are interrelated. Driving behavior in highway traffic was categorized into 12 maneuver states, based on which 144 (12 × 12) maneuver transition probabilities were obtained. A conditional likelihood maximization method was employed to extract typical maneuver transition patterns that could represent driving style strategies, from the 144 probabilities. Random forest algorithm was adopted to classify driving styles using the selected features. Results showed that transitions concerning five maneuver states – free driving, approaching, near following, constrained left and right lane changes – could be used to classify driving style reliably. Comparisons with traditional methods were presented and discussed in detail to show that transition probabilities between maneuvers were better at predicting driving style than traditional maneuver frequencies in behavioral analysis.     

Effects of driving style on the fuel consumption of city buses under different road conditions and vehicle masses

The variance in fuel consumption caused by driving style (DS) difference exceeds 10% and reaches a maximum of 20% under different road conditions, even for experienced bus drivers. To study the influence of DS on fuel consumption, a method for summarizing DS characteristic parameters on the basis of vehicle-engine combined model is proposed. With this method, the author proposes 26 DS characteristic parameters related to fuel consumption in the accelerating, normal running, and decelerating processes of vehicles. The influence of DS characteristic parameters on fuel consumption under different road conditions and vehicle masses is quantitatively analyzed on the basis of real driving data over 100,000 km. Analysis results show that the influence of DS characteristic parameters on fuel consumption changes with road condition and vehicle mass, with road condition serving a more important function. However, the DS characteristics in the accelerating process of vehicles are decisive for fuel consumption under different conditions. This study also calculates the minimum sample size necessary for analyzing the effect of DS characteristics on fuel consumption. The statistical analysis based on the real driving data over 2500 km can determine the influence of DS on fuel consumption under a given power-train configuration and road condition. The analysis results can be employed to evaluate the fuel consumption of drivers, as well as to guide the design of Driver Advisory System for Eco-driving directly.     

Real-time crash prediction for expressway weaving segments

Weaving segments are potential recurrent bottlenecks which affect the efficiency and safety of expressways during peak hours. Meanwhile, they are one of the most complicated segments, since on- and off-ramp traffic merges, diverges and weaves in the limited space. One effective way to improve the safety of weaving segments is to study crash likelihood using real-time crash data with the objective of, identifying hazardous conditions and reducing the risk of crashes by Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) traffic control. This study presents a multilevel Bayesian logistic regression model for crashes at expressway weaving segments using crash, geometric, Microwave Vehicle Detection System (MVDS) and weather data. The results show that the mainline speed at the beginning of the weaving segments, the speed difference between the beginning and the end of weaving segment, logarithm of volume have significant impacts on the crash risk of the following 5–10 min for weaving segments. The configuration is also an important factor. Weaving segment, in which there is no need for on- or off-ramp traffic to change lane, is with high crash risk because it has more traffic interactions and higher speed differences between weaving and non-weaving traffic. Meanwhile, maximum length, which measures the distance at which weaving turbulence no longer has impact, is found to be positively related to the crash risk at the 95% confidence interval. In addition to traffic and geometric factors, wet pavement surface condition significantly increases the crash ratio by 77%. The proposed model along with ITS, e.g., ramp metering, Dynamic Message Sign (DMS), and high friction surface treatment can be used to enhance the safety of weaving segments in real-time.     

A lane-level road network model with global continuity

An increasing number of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) applications require high accurate vehicle positioning, e.g., positioning at the lane-level. This requirement motives the development of modeling the road network at the lane-level. In this paper we propose a novel lane-level road network model. It can be considered an improvement to existing models in its capability of representing the road and intersection details at the lane-level in a uniform and precise way. As a result, the model can guarantee the global continuity for arbitrary map route, which better approximates the real vehicle trajectory. In addition, the map construction algorithms are also developed. Following the proposed methods, the lane parameters can be extracted efficiently under flexible precision requirement, and intersections with varying appearances can be precisely modeled with limited extra data. Experiments were performed to verify the proposed model in representing the lane-level geometrical and topological details of an urban area of Milan. The results also demonstrate the effectiveness of the map construction methods.     

Analysis of volatility in driving regimes extracted from basic safety messages transmitted between connected vehicles

Driving volatility captures the extent of speed variations when a vehicle is being driven. Extreme longitudinal variations signify hard acceleration or braking. Warnings and alerts given to drivers can reduce such volatility potentially improving safety, energy use, and emissions. This study develops a fundamental understanding of instantaneous driving decisions, needed for hazard anticipation and notification systems, and distinguishes normal from anomalous driving. In this study, driving task is divided into distinct yet unobserved regimes. The research issue is to characterize and quantify these regimes in typical driving cycles and the associated volatility of each regime, explore when the regimes change and the key correlates associated with each regime. Using Basic Safety Message (BSM) data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, two- and three-regime Dynamic Markov switching models are estimated for several trips undertaken on various roadway types. While thousands of instrumented vehicles with vehicle to vehicle (V2V) and vehicle to infrastructure (V2I) communication systems are being tested, nearly 1.4 million records of BSMs, from 184 trips undertaken by 71 instrumented vehicles are analyzed in this study. Then even more detailed analysis of 43 randomly chosen trips (N = 714,340 BSM records) that were undertaken on various roadway types is conducted. The results indicate that acceleration and deceleration are two distinct regimes, and as compared to acceleration, drivers decelerate at higher rates, and braking is significantly more volatile than acceleration. Different correlations of the two regimes with instantaneous driving contexts are explored. With a more generic three-regime model specification, the results reveal high-rate acceleration, high-rate deceleration, and cruise/constant as the three distinct regimes that characterize a typical driving cycle. Moreover, given in a high-rate regime, drivers’ on-average tend to decelerate at a higher rate than their rate of acceleration. Importantly, compared to cruise/constant regime, drivers’ instantaneous driving decisions are more volatile both in “high-rate” acceleration as well as “high-rate” deceleration regime. The study contributes to analyzing volatility in short-term driving decisions, and how changes in driving regimes can be mapped to a combination of local traffic states surrounding the vehicle.     

An empirical assessment of the feasibility of battery electric vehicles for day-to-day driving

Driven by sustainability objectives, Australia like many nations in the developed world, is considering the option of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as an alternative to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). In addition to issues of capital and running costs, crucial questions remain over the specifications of such vehicles, particularly the required driving range, recharge time, re-charging infrastructure, performance, and other attributes that will be of importance to consumers. With this in mind, this paper assesses (hypothetically) the extent to which current car travel needs could be met by BEVs for a sample of motorists in Sydney assuming a home-based charging set-up, which is likely to be the primary option for early adopters of the technology. The approach uses five weeks of driving data recorded by GPS technology and builds up home-home tours to assess the distances between (in effect) charging possibilities. An energy consumption model based on characteristics of the vehicle, and the speeds recorded by the GPS is adapted to determine the charge used, while a battery recharge function is used to determine charging times based on the current battery level. Among the most pertinent findings are that over the five weeks, (i) BEVs with a range as low as 60 km and a simple home-charge set-up would be able to accommodate well over 90% of day-to-day driving, (ii) however the incidence of tours requiring out-of-home charging increases markedly for vehicles below 24 kWh (170 km range), (iii) recharge time in itself has little impact on the feasibility of BEVs because vehicles spend the majority of their time parked and (iv) effective range can be dramatically impacted by both how a vehicle is driven and use of electrical auxiliaries, and (v) while unsuitable for long, high-speed journeys without some external re-charging options, BEVs appear particularly suited for the majority of day-to-day city driving in big cities where average journey speeds of 34 km/h are close to optimal in terms of maximising vehicle range. The paper has implications for both policy-makers and auto manufacturers in breaking down some of the (perceived) barriers to greater uptake of BEVs in the future.     

Implementation and test of a hybrid storage system on an electric urban bus

Customer acceptance of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) depends strongly on the performance of the Energy Storage System (ESS). Energy density, power density and lifetime of ESSs are three key parameters to be optimized in a BEV. For this purpose the use of a hybrid energy source on board of electric vehicles has been proposed and analyzed in literature. However, most of the previous studies have been limited to simulation or to test bench experiments of the ESS. This paper focuses on the implementation and use of the association of high energy NiCd battery and high power supercapacitors on board of a 3.5 t urban bus. An uncomplicated and efficient energy management strategy has been implemented and tested. The behavior of the vehicle has been investigated by experiment on a roller test bench for two different driving cycles, highlighting the effects of the hybridization: reduction of losses within the battery with consequent expected lifetime extension, improved dynamic of the vehicle and a possible driving range extension.     

Customizing driving cycles to support vehicle purchase and use decisions: Fuel economy estimation for alternative fuel vehicle users

Wider deployment of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can help with increasing energy security and transitioning to clean vehicles. Ideally, adopters of AFVs are able to maintain the same level of mobility as users of conventional vehicles while reducing energy use and emissions. Greater knowledge of AFV benefits can support consumers’ vehicle purchase and use choices. The Environmental Protection Agency’s fuel economy ratings are a key source of potential benefits of using AFVs. However, the ratings are based on pre-designed and fixed driving cycles applied in laboratory conditions, neglecting the attributes of drivers and vehicle types. While the EPA ratings using pre-designed and fixed driving cycles may be unbiased they are not necessarily precise, owning to large variations in real-life driving. Thus, to better predict fuel economy for individual consumers targeting specific types of vehicles, it is important to find driving cycles that can better represent consumers’ real-world driving practices instead of using pre-designed standard driving cycles. This paper presents a methodology for customizing driving cycles to provide convincing fuel economy predictions that are based on drivers’ characteristics and contemporary real-world driving, along with validation efforts. The methodology takes into account current micro-driving practices in terms of maintaining speed, acceleration, braking, idling, etc., on trips. Specifically, using a large-scale driving data collected by in-vehicle Global Positioning System as part of a travel survey, a micro-trips (building block) library for California drivers is created using 54 million seconds of vehicle trajectories on more than 60,000 trips, made by 3000 drivers. To generate customized driving cycles, a new tool, known as Case Based System for Driving Cycle Design, is developed. These customized cycles can predict fuel economy more precisely for conventional vehicles vis-à-vis AFVs. This is based on a consumer’s similarity in terms of their own and geographical characteristics, with a sample of micro-trips from the case library. The AFV driving cycles, created from real-world driving data, show significant differences from conventional driving cycles currently in use. This further highlights the need to enhance current fuel economy estimations by using customized driving cycles, helping consumers make more informed vehicle purchase and use decisions.     

Development of a corrected average speed model for calculating carbon dioxide emissions per link unit on urban roads

The purpose of our study is to develop a “corrected average emission model,” i.e., an improved average speed model that accurately calculates CO₂ emissions on the road. When emissions from the central roads of a city are calculated, the existing average speed model only reflects the driving behavior of a vehicle that accelerates and decelerates due to signals and traffic. Therefore, we verified the accuracy of the average speed model, analyzed the causes of errors based on the instantaneous model utilizing second-by-second data from driving in a city center, and then developed a corrected model that can improve the accuracy. We collected GPS data from probe vehicles, and calculated and analyzed the average emissions and instantaneous emissions per link unit. Our results showed that the average speed model underestimated CO₂ emissions with an increase in acceleration and idle time for a speed range of 20 km/h and below, which is the speed range for traffic congestion. Based on these results, we analyzed the relationship between average emissions and instantaneous emissions according to the average speed per link unit, and we developed a model that performed better with an improved accuracy of calculated CO₂ emissions for 20 km/h and below.     

The smoothing effect of carpool lanes on freeway bottlenecks

Real data show that reserving a lane for carpools on congested freeways induces a smoothing effect that is characterized by significantly higher bottleneck discharge flows (capacities) in adjacent lanes. The effect is reproducible across days and freeway sites: it was observed, without exception, in all cases tested. Predicted by an earlier theory, the effect arises because disruptive vehicle lane changing diminishes in the presence of a carpool lane. We therefore conjecture that smoothing can also be induced by other means that would reduce lane changing.The benefits can be large. Queueing analysis shows that the smoothing effect greatly reduces the times spent by people and vehicles in queues. For example, by ignoring the smoothing effect at one of the sites we analyzed one would predict that its carpool lane increased both the people-hours and the vehicle-hours traveled by well over 300%. In reality, the carpool lane reduced both measures due to smoothing. The effect is so significant that even a severely underused carpool lane can in some instances increase a freeway bottleneck’s total discharge flow. This happens for the site we analyzed when carpool demand is as low as 1200 vph.     

Wireless charging in California: Range,recharge, and vehicle electrification

This research evaluated the potential for wireless dynamic charging (charging while moving) to address range and recharge issues of modern electric vehicles by considering travel to regional destinations in California. A 200-mile electric vehicle with a real range of 160 miles plus 40 miles reserve was assumed to be used by consumers in concert with static and dynamic charging as a strict substitute for gasoline vehicle travel. Different combinations of wireless charging power (20–120 kW) and vehicle range (100–300 miles) were evaluated. One of the results highlighted in the research indicated that travel between popular destinations could be accomplished with a 200-mile EV and a 40 kW dynamic wireless charging system at a cost of about $2.5 billion. System cost for a 200-mile EV could be reduced to less than $1 billion if wireless vehicle charging power levels were increased to 100 kW or greater. For vehicles consuming 138 kWh of dynamic energy per year on a 40 kW dynamic system, the capital cost of $2.5 billion plus yearly energy costs could be recouped over a 20-year period at an average cost to each vehicle owner of $512 per year at a volume of 300,000 vehicles or $168 per year at a volume of 1,000,000 vehicles. Cost comparisons of dynamic charging, increased battery capacity, and gasoline refueling were presented. Dynamic charging, coupled with strategic wayside static charging, was shown to be more cost effective to the consumer over a 10-year period than gasoline refueling at $2.50 or $4.00 per gallon. Notably, even at very low battery prices of $100 per kWh, the research showed that dynamic charging can be a more cost effective approach to extending range than increasing battery capacity.     

A traffic noise model for road intersections in the city of Cartagena de Indias,Colombia

Road traffic noise models are fundamental tools for designing and implementing appropriate prevention plans to minimize and control noise levels in urban areas. The objective of this study is to develop a traffic noise model to simulate the average equivalent sound pressure level at road intersections based on traffic flow and site characteristics, in the city of Cartagena de Indias (Cartagena), Colombia. Motorcycles are included as an additional vehicle category since they represent more than 30% of the total traffic flow and a distinctive source of noise that needs to be characterized. Noise measurements are collected using a sound level meter Type II. The data analysis leads to the development of noise maps and a general mathematical model for the city of Cartagena, Colombia, which correlates the sound levels as a function of vehicle flow within road intersections. The highest noise levels were 79.7 dB(A) for the road intersection María Auxiliadora during the week (business days) and 77.7 dB(A) for the road intersection India Catalina during weekends (non-business days). Although traffic and noise are naturally related, the intersections with higher vehicle flow did not have the highest noise levels. The roadway noise for these intersections in the city of Cartagena exceeds current limit standards. The roadway noise model is able to satisfactorily predict noise emissions for road intersections in the city of Cartagena, Colombia.     

A new offline optimization approach for designing a fuel cell hybrid bus

In this study a hydrogen powered fuel cell hybrid bus is optimized in terms of the powertrain components and in terms of the energy management strategy. Firstly the vehicle is optimized aiming to minimize the cost of its powertrain components, in an official driving cycle. The optimization variables in powertrain component design are different models and sizes of fuel cells, of electric motors and controllers, and batteries. After the component design, an energy management strategy (EMS) optimization is performed in the official driving cycle and in two real measured driving cycles, aiming to minimize the fuel consumption. The EMS optimization is based on the control of the battery’s state-of-charge. The real driving cycles are representative of bus driving in urban routes within Lisbon and Oporto Portuguese cities. A real-coded genetic algorithm is developed to perform the optimization, and linked with the vehicle simulation software ADVISOR. The trade-off between cost increase and fuel consumption reduction is discussed in the lifetime of the designed bus and compared to a conventional diesel bus. Although the cost of the optimized hybrid powertrain (62,230 €) achieves 9 times the cost of a conventional diesel bus, the improved efficiency of such powertrain achieved 36% and 34% of lower energy consumption for the real driving cycles, OportoDC and LisbonDC, which can originate savings of around 0.43 €/km and 0.37 €/km respectively. The optimization methodology presented in this work, aside being an offline method, demonstrated great improvements in performance and energy consumption in real driving cycles, and can be a great advantage in the design of a hybrid vehicle.     

Fit-for-duty test for estimation of drivers’ sleepiness level: Eye movements improve the sleep/wake predictor

Driver sleepiness contributes to a considerable proportion of road accidents, and a fit-for-duty test able to measure a driver’s sleepiness level might improve traffic safety. The aim of this study was to develop a fit-for-duty test based on eye movement measurements and on the sleep/wake predictor model (SWP, which predicts the sleepiness level) and evaluate the ability to predict severe sleepiness during real road driving. Twenty-four drivers participated in an experimental study which took place partly in the laboratory, where the fit-for-duty data were acquired, and partly on the road, where the drivers sleepiness was assessed. A series of four measurements were conducted over a 24-h period during different stages of sleepiness. Two separate analyses were performed; a variance analysis and a feature selection followed by classification analysis. In the first analysis it was found that the SWP and several eye movement features involving anti-saccades, pro-saccades, smooth pursuit, pupillometry and fixation stability varied significantly with different stages of sleep deprivation. In the second analysis, a feature set was determined based on floating forward selection. The correlation coefficient between a linear combination of the acquired features and subjective sleepiness (Karolinska sleepiness scale, KSS) was found to be R = 0.73 and the correct classification rate of drivers who reached high levels of sleepiness (KSS ⩾ 8) in the subsequent driving session was 82.4% (sensitivity = 80.0%, specificity = 84.2% and AUC = 0.86). Future improvements of a fit-for-duty test should focus on how to account for individual differences and situational/contextual factors in the test, and whether it is possible to maintain high sensitive/specificity with a shorter test that can be used in a real-life environment, e.g. on professional drivers.