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1.
Bus right hook (BRH) crashes at intersections are one of the most common types of crashes for bus carriers, which accounted for as high as 16% of fatal and injury crashes involving large buses at intersections in Taiwan. A BRH crash occurs when a bus and another vehicle traveling in the same direction head into an intersection, but the bus driver makes a right turn across the path of the through-moving vehicle, and both vehicles collide. This study responds to the research needs to identity factors associated with BRH crashes by utilizing in-vehicle data recorder (IVDR) data. A four step analysis procedure was developed, including (1) video data coding, (2) crash sequence analysis to identify crash contributing factors, (3) a case-control study to examine the relationship between the crash contributing factors and crash occurrence, and (4) modeling crash risk in terms of the crash contributing factors to better understand the crash generating process. This study first identified the existence of driver unattended time as the time between when the driver last checked the right back mirror to finally steering for a right turn, indicating the time period wherein the driver did not track the through vehicle on the right side using the right back mirror. It was found that BRH crashes could be attributed to the concurrence of unattended time and the speed difference between the bus and through vehicle. Several recommendations are discussed based on the results to further develop countermeasures to reduce this type of crash.  相似文献   

2.
This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00 am to 6 am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70 km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7 pm to 12 pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70 km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.  相似文献   

3.
This paper focuses on identifying crash risk factors associated with injury severity of teen drivers. Crash data obtained from the Highway Safety and Information System (HSIS) for the entire state of North Carolina, for years 2011 to 2013, was used for analysis and modeling. Among all the crashes during the study period, a total of 62,990 crashes involving teen drivers (15 to 19?years) were analyzed. A partial proportionality odds model was developed to identify factors contributing to injury severity of teen drivers. The results obtained indicate that teen drivers driving sports utility vehicles and pickup trucks are more likely to be severely injured when compared to teen drivers driving passenger cars. Teen drivers are more likely to be severely injured on weekdays, particularly during peak hours. The chances of teen drivers getting involved in severe injury crashes on Tuesdays and Fridays is higher when compared to Sundays. Age, gender, road configuration, terrain, adverse weather condition, and access control are observed to have a significant effect on teen driver's injury severity.  相似文献   

4.
Teenagers have been emphasized as a critical driver population class because of their overrepresentation in fatal and injury crashes. The conventional parametric approaches rest on few predefined assumptions, which might not always be valid considering the complicated nature of teen drivers' crash characteristics that are reflected by multidimensional crash datasets. Also, individual attributes may be more speculative when combined with other factors. This research employed joint correspondence analysis (JCA) and association rule mining (ARM) to investigate the fatal and injury crash patterns of at-fault teen drivers (aged 15 to 19 years) in Louisiana. The unsupervised learning algorithms can explore meaningful associations among crash categories without restricting the nature of variables. The analyses discover intriguing associations to understand the potential causes and effects of crashes. For example, alcohol impairment results in fatal crashes with passengers, daytimes severe collisions occur to unrestrained drivers who have exceeded the posted speed limits, and adverse weather conditions are associated with moderate injury crashes. The findings also reveal how the behavior patterns connected with teen driver crashes, such as distracted driving in the morning hours, alcohol intoxication or using cellphone in pickup trucks, and so on. The research results can lead to effectively targeted teen driver education programs to mitigate risky driving maneuvers. Also, prioritizing crash attributes of key interconnections can help to develop practical safety countermeasures. Strategy that covers multiple interventions could be more effective in curtailing teenagers' crash risk.  相似文献   

5.
This study aims to investigate the contributing factors affecting the occurrence of crashes while lane-changing maneuvers of drivers. Two different data sets were used from the same drivers' population. The first data set was collected from the traffic police crash reports and the second data set was collected through a questionnaire survey that was conducted among 429 drivers. Two different logistic regression models were developed by employing the two sets of the collected data. The results of the crash occurrence model showed that the drivers' factors (gender, nationality and years of experience in driving), location and surrounding condition factors (non-junction locations, light and road surface conditions) and roads feature (road type, number of lanes and speed limit value) are the significant variables that affected the occurrence of lane-change crashes. About 57.2% of the survey responders committed that different sources of distractions were the main reason for their sudden or unsafe lane change including 21.2% was due to mobile usage. The drivers' behavior model results showed that drivers who did sudden lane change are more likely to be involved in traffic crashes with 2.53 times than others. The drivers who look towards the side mirrors and who look out the windows before lane-change intention have less probability to be involved in crashes by 4.61 and 3.85 times than others, respectively. Another interesting finding is that drivers who reported that they received enough training about safe lane change maneuvering during issuing the driving licenses are less likely to be involved in crashes by 2.06 times than other drivers.  相似文献   

6.
高速公路隧道构造特殊且通行环境复杂,因而通常事故多发。为探究高速公路隧道路段与开放路段事故影响因素和严重程度致因机理的差异,采集沪昆高速邵怀段2011—2016年期间1 537起事故为研究样本;以事故发生路段为响应变量构建逻辑回归模型,解释各种风险因素对事故发生路段倾向性的影响差异;分别针对隧道路段与开放路段建立模型研究事故伤害严重程度的影响因素。建立二元Logit回归模型分析事故的发生倾向性和2类路段的事故严重程度的影响因素;采用随机参数Logit模型以反映异质性条件对参数的影响。统计表明:与疲劳驾驶、未保持安全距离相关的事故发生在隧道路段的概率更高,其事故发生概率分别是开放路段的2.373和2.482倍;与隧道路段事故严重程度正相关的因素包括下坡(坡度2%以上)、夏季和超速行驶,其中下坡(坡度2%以上)段的严重事故发生的概率为上坡(坡度2%以上)的3.397倍,夏季的严重事故发生概率为秋季的3.951倍,超速行驶相关的严重事故发生概率为其他不当驾驶行为的4.242倍;与开放路段事故严重程度正相关的因素包括超速行驶和疲劳驾驶,其中超速行驶相关的严重事故概率是其他不当驾驶行为的2.713倍,疲劳驾驶相关的严重事故概率是其他不当驾驶行为的4.802倍。研究表明,山区高速公路隧道路段与开放路段的事故发生概率及其严重程度的影响因素存在一定的差异性,研究结论可为山区高速公路差异管理方案制定提供依据。   相似文献   

7.
Nearly 499,000 motor vehicle crashes involving trucks were reported across the United States in 2018, out of which 22% resulted in fatalities and injuries. Given the growing economy and demand for trucking in the future, it is crucial to identify the risk factors to understand where and why the likelihood of getting involved in a severe or moderate injury crash with a truck is higher. The focus of this research, therefore, is on developing a methodology, capturing and integrating data, exploring, and identifying risk factors associated with surrounding land use and demographic characteristics in addition to crash, driver, and on-network characteristics by modeling injury severity of crashes involving trucks. Crash data for Mecklenburg County in North Carolina from 2013 to 2017 was used to develop partial proportional odds model and identify risk factors influencing injury severity of crashes involving trucks. The findings indicate that dark lighting condition, inclement weather condition, the presence of double yellow or no-passing zone, road sections with speed limit >40 mph and curves, and driver fatigue, impairment, and inattention have a significant influence on injury severity of crashes involving trucks. These outcomes indicate the need for effective geometric design and improved visibility to reduce the injury severity of crashes involving trucks. The likelihood of a severe or moderate injury crash involving a truck is also high in areas with high employment, government, light commercial, and light industrial land uses. The findings can be used to identify potential risk areas, proactively plan and prioritize the allocation of resources to improve safety of transportation system users in these areas.  相似文献   

8.
Lane-changing events are often related with safety concern and traffic operational efficiency due to complex interactions with neighboring vehicles. In particular, lane changes in stop-and-go traffic conditions are of keen interest because these events lead to higher risk of crash occurrence caused by more frequent and abrupt vehicle acceleration and deceleration. From these perspectives, in-depth understanding of lane changes would be of keen interest in developing in-vehicle driving assistance systems. The purpose of this study is to analyze vehicle interactions using vehicle trajectories and to identify factors affecting lane changes with stop-and-go traffic conditions. This study used vehicle trajectory data obtained from a segment of the US-101 freeway in Southern California, as a part of the Next Generation Simulation (NGSIM) project. Vehicle trajectories were divided into two groups; with stop-and-go and without stop-and-go traffic conditions. Binary logistic regression (BLR), a well-known technique for dealing with the binary choice condition, was adopted to establish lane-changing decision models. Regarding lane changes without stop-and-go traffic conditions, it was identified based on the odd ratio investigation that he subject vehicle driver is more likely to pay attention to the movement of vehicles ahead, regardless of vehicle positions such as current and target lanes. On the other hand, the subject vehicle driver in stop-and-go traffic conditions is more likely to be affected by vehicles traveling on the target lane when deciding lane changes. The two BLR models are adequate for lane-changing decisions in normal and stop-and-go traffic conditions with about 80 % accuracy. A possible reason for this finding is that the subject vehicle driver has a tendency to pay greater attention to avoiding sideswipe or rear-end collision with vehicles on the target lane. These findings are expected to be used for better understanding of driver’s lane changing behavior associated with congested stop-and-go traffic conditions, and give valuable insights in developing algorithms to process sensor data in designing safer lateral maneuvering assistance systems, which include, for example, blind spot detection systems (BSDS) and lane keeping assistance systems (LKAS).  相似文献   

9.
Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users; thus, understanding the primary factors that lead to pedestrian crashes is a chief concern in road safety. However, owing to the limitations of crash data in developing countries, only a few studies have evaluated the comprehensive characteristics of pedestrian crashes, specifically on different road types. This study attempted to develop pedestrian crash frequency and severity models on national roads by using the road characteristics and built environment parameters, based on the road crash data (2016–2018) that involved pedestrians in Metro Manila, Philippines. Remarkable findings included primary roads, presence of footbridges, road sections with bad surface conditions, and increased fractions of commercial, residential, and industrial roads, which exhibited a greater likelihood of pedestrian crashes. Crashes involving elderly pedestrians, heavier vehicles, late-night hours, fair surface conditions, and open spaces were associated with increased likelihoods of fatal outcomes. Essentially, this study provides a macroscopic perspective in understanding the factors associated with the severity and frequency of pedestrian crashes, and it would aid the authorities in identifying proper countermeasures.  相似文献   

10.
In developing countries such as Iran, due to the inadequate infrastructure for rail and air transportation facilities, intercity buses are the most common type of transportation for long distances. Because of the long hours of driving, bus driving is considered a challenging job. Moreover, given the high capacity of these vehicles, a small error from the driver could endanger many passengers' health. So, studying drivers' behaviours can be a key factor in decreasing the risk factors of crash involvement in these drivers. However, few studies have focused on intercity bus drivers' behaviours. This research uses a sample of 254 professional drivers that answered a self-report questionnaire on driving style (MDSI), driving behaviour (DBQ), and driving anger (DAS). A structural equation modelling (SEM) is used to investigate the psychometric properties of these questionnaires. The results show a positive correlation between maladaptive driving styles and driving behaviour, and a negative correlation between adaptive styles and driving behaviour. Significant differences are observed among drivers with and without crash history on their maladaptive driving styles and their driving anger scale. A binary logistic regression model is also developed to predict traffic crashes as a function of driving misbehaviour. The results suggest that factors related to driving anger are the main factors that increase the probability of misbehaviour and traffic crashes. The results also suggest that driving style and driving behaviour significantly predict crash risk among bus drivers. Aggressive driving is associated with an increased probability of crash involvement among intercity bus drivers. The findings can be used to inform the health promotion policies and provide regular interventions designed to improve driving safety among intercity bus drivers.  相似文献   

11.
为了探究行人事故的发生机理,分析影响行人交通安全的显著因素,收集上海市中心城区263个交通分析小区(TAZ)的行人事故、道路、人口及土地利用数据,并开展行人宏观安全研究。考虑到TAZ之间存在的空间相关性,建立考虑空间相关性的贝叶斯负二项条件自回归模型,在条件自回归模型中对比分析了5种不同的空间权重矩阵,包括0~1邻接矩阵、边界长度矩阵、分析单元中心距离倒数矩阵、事故空间中心距离倒数矩阵这4种既有矩阵,以及首次引入的宏观安全建模中的分析单元中心距离多阶矩阵。结果表明:分析单元中心距离多阶矩阵的模型拟合效果和事故预测准确度均显著优于既有的4种空间权重矩阵,证明了在宏观安全建模过程中考虑研究对象交通特征(居民步行平均出行距离等)的必要性;人口数量、主干道长度、次干道长度、路网密度等因素均与行人事故呈现显著正相关,平均交叉口间距、三路交叉口比例等因素与行人事故呈显著负相关;相较于高等、低等土地利用强度,中等土地利用强度对行人事故的影响最大。  相似文献   

12.
Though automobile manufacturers are investing efforts to make newer vehicles safer to drive, an element of uncertainty with the new vehicle seems to persist with the drivers during the early years of ownership. This could be due to a lack of familiarity of the vehicle's power, dimensions or available technologies/features. While the uncertainty in itself is a potential cause of a crash, it is important for the policy-makers, practitioners, and automobile manufacturers to understand the factors that could further aggravate the problem. This research focuses on identifying the factors influencing the likelihood of getting involved in a crash and its severity when driving a new vehicle. Crash data for North Carolina for the years 2013 to 2018 (six years) was used develop partial proportionality odds models, compute the odds ratios, analyze the effects of explanatory variables, and identify factors influencing crashes by the age of the vehicle. The likelihood of getting involved in a severe or moderate injury crash when driving a new vehicle is less for drivers in the age group ≤19 years. Erratic driving behavior (like making wide turns, weaving and swerving in traffic, driving with headlights off, driving on center-line or lane-line, etc.) and speeding increase the risk of getting involved in a moderate injury crash when driving a new vehicle. Likewise, the odds of getting involved in a crash are high on weekends and in adverse weather conditions when driving a new vehicle. They are higher when driving a new motorcycle, heavy vehicle or farm machinery. The findings help policy-makers and practitioners formulate strategies to educate drivers on factors influencing crash risk when driving a new vehicle. Further, automobile manufacturers can establish guidance programs and documentation that explain what to expect when buying and driving a new vehicle.  相似文献   

13.
India's national road crash statistics indicate a continuing increase in casualties. Pre-crash safety technologies are effective in high-income countries, but it is unclear how these will perform in India and which crash types will remain after their implementation. The study objective was to predict and characterize the crashes resulting in moderate or more-severe injuries (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale 2 or above: MAIS2+) that remain on Indian roads after 22 pre-crash safety technologies have been implemented in all cars, heavy vehicles (buses and trucks), and Powered Two-Wheelers (PTW). Two deterministic rulesets (one optimistic and one conservative) were modeled for each of the pre-crash safety technologies. Each rule was designed and tuned to the functionality of one technology. The data were obtained from the Road Accident Sampling System India (RASSI) database. In addition to the effectiveness of each technology alone, the combined effectiveness of all technologies was estimated. Further, the characteristics of those crashes that none of the technologies would have avoided were determined. Rear-end-specific Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB REAR-END) and Electronic Stability Control (ESC) installed in cars and heavy vehicles reduced MAIS2+ crashes the most. Crashes between PTWs and cars were significantly reduced by a rear-end-specific AEB installed in the cars. A pedestrian-specific AEB (AEB-PED) in cars and heavy vehicles was also shown to be effective. The only pre-crash safety technology in PTWs that was included, Antilock Braking Systems (ABS), reduced overall PTW crash involvement, but only reduced PTW-to-pedestrian crashes marginally. The largest proportion of remaining crashes were those that involved PTWs, indicating that PTW safety will remain a concern in future.  相似文献   

14.
Intersection safety continues to be a crucial issue throughout the United States. In 2016, 27% of the 37,461 traffic fatalities on U.S. roadways occurred at or near intersections. Nearly 70% of intersection-related fatalities occurred at unsignalized intersections. At such intersections, vehicles stopping or slowing to turn create speed differentials between vehicles traveling in the same direction. This is particularly problematic on two-lane highways. Research was performed to analyze safety performance for intersections on rural, two-lane roadways, with stop control on the minor roadway. Roadway, traffic, and crash data were collected from 4148 stop-controlled intersections of all 64 Parishes (counties) statewide in Louisiana, for the period of 2013 to 2017. Four count approaches, Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) were used to model the number of intersection crashes for different severity levels. The results indicate that ZIP models provide a better fit than all other models. In addition to traffic volume, larger curve radii of major and minor roads and wider lane widths of major roads led to significantly smaller crash occurrences. However, higher speed limits of major roads led to significantly greater crash occurrences. Four-leg stop-controlled intersections have 35% greater total crashes, 49% greater fatal and injury crashes, and 25% greater property damage only (PDO) crashes, relative to three-leg intersections.  相似文献   

15.
This study investigates the relationship between lane-change-related crashes and lane-specific, real-time traffic factors. It is anticipated that the real-time traffic data for the two lanes—the vehicle's lane (subject lane) and the lane to which that a vehicle intends to change (target lane)—are more closely related to lane-change-related crashes, as opposed to congregated traffic data for all lanes. Lane-change-related crash data were obtained from a 62-mile long freeway in Southeast Wisconsin in 2012 and 2013. One-minute traffic data from the 5- to 10-minute interval prior to the crashes were extracted from an immediately upstream detector station and two immediately downstream stations from the crash location. Weather information was collected from a major historical weather database. A matched case-control logistic regression was used for analysis. Results show that the following factors significantly affect the probability of a lane-change-related crash: average flow into the target lane at the first downstream station, the flow ratio at the second downstream station, and snow conditions. Additionally, the average speed in the target lane at the first downstream station contributes to the occurrence of lane-change crashes during snowy conditions. According to the model, the probability of a lane-change-related crash under real-time traffic conditions can aid in flagging potential crash-prone conditions. The identified contributing factors can help traffic operators select traffic control and management countermeasures to proactively mitigate lane-change-related crashes.  相似文献   

16.
Extremely serious traffic crashes, defined as having a death toll of two and greater than two, have become a serious safety concern on urban roadways in Louisiana. This study examined the different contributing factors of these crashes to determine significant trends and patterns. We collected traffic crash data from Louisiana during the period of 2013 to 2017 and found that a total of 72 extremely serious crashes (around 2% of all traffic fatalities) occurred on Louisiana urban roadway networks. As crash data contain an enormous list of contributing factors, there was an issue of ‘more features than data points’ in solving the research problem. Most of these variables are categorial in nature. We selected a dimension reduction tool called Taxicab Correspondence Analysis (TCA) to investigate the complex interaction between multiple factors under a two-dimensional map. Findings of the study reveal several key clusters of attributes that show patterns of association between different crash attributes. The conclusions of this study are exploratory, and the results can help in better visualizing the association between key attributes of crashes. The findings have potentials in designing suitable countermeasures to reduce extremely serious crashes.  相似文献   

17.
This paper presents an evaluation of risk factors for highway crashes under mixed traffic conditions. The basis of selecting study sites was abutting land use, roadway, and traffic characteristics. Accordingly, the study selected thirteen segments on the existing highway network in the state of West Bengal of India, covering a wide spectrum of such road attributes. A systematic investigation based on site-specific accident data to capture the highway sections' safety features revealed that the crash rate has steadily increased for years with traffic regardless of roadway category and conditions. A number of risk factors that affect road accidents were identified; they are mid-block access, pavement and shoulder conditions, vehicle involvement, time of day, and road configuration, i.e., two and multi-lane. The empirical observation indicates that the crash rate is relatively lower on multi-lane highways; however, the severity of any crash on such a road is relatively high. Notably, the crash frequencies on such roads are less during daylight hours due to the lane-based unidirectional traffic movement. This is quite the opposite during nighttime when drivers exhibit an inability to meet traffic contingencies, thereby increasing crash risk. The majority of crashes on two-lane highways are, on the other hand, due to unsafe driving manoeuvers. The study also observed that frequent mid-block accesses and poor shoulder conditions reduce scopes to rectify driving errors and increase crash risk as a consequence. The paper subsequently suggests proactive approaches to identify safety deficits at the time of planning and designing.  相似文献   

18.
This paper reviews the evaluation literature on the effectiveness of classroom and behind-the-wheel driver training. The primary focus is on North America programs as originally taught in high schools but now also by private instructors. Studies from the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Scandinavia are also included.By far the most rigorous study to date was the experimental study in DeKalb, Georgia, U.S.A. This study used a randomized design including a control group and a very large sample size to provide reasonable statistical precision. I reexamine the DeKalb data in detail and conclude that the study did show evidence of small short-term crash and violation reductions per licensed driver. However, when the accelerated licensure caused by the training is allowed to influence the crash and violation counts, there is evidence of a net increase in crashes.The other studies reviewed present a mixed picture but the better designed quasi-experimental evaluations usually showed no effects on crash rates but almost all suffer from inadequate sample size. I show that as many as 35,000 drivers would be required in a two group design to reliably detect a 10% reduction in crash rates.The advent of GDL laws in North America and other countries has largely remedied the concern over accelerated licensure of high risk teenage drivers by delaying the progress to full licensure. Conventional driver training programs in the U.S. (30 h classroom and 6 h on-the-road) probably reduce per licensed driver crash rates by as little as 5% over the first 6-12 months of driving. The possibility of an effect closer to 0 cannot be dismissed.Some GDLs contain an incentive for applicants to complete an advanced driver training program in return for shortening the provisional period of the GDL. The results of Canadian studies indicate that any effects of the driver training component are not sufficient to offset the increase in accidents due to increased exposure.There is no evidence or reason to believe that merely lengthening the number of hours on the road will increase effectiveness. Programs directed toward attitude change and risk taking better address the underlying cause of the elevated crash risk of young drivers but these behaviors are notoriously resistant to modification in young people.  相似文献   

19.
This study aims to estimate the overall impact of distraction due to operating in-vehicle information systems (IVIS) and similar devices while driving on road crashes. While similar research has been undertaken investigating the issue, varying results have been reported so far. Therefore a two-step approach was adopted: initially a review of the literature was conducted to identify key high quality studies and the parameters that they examined. Afterwards, meta-analyses were applied in order to estimate the overall effects of operating IVIS while driving on the absolute proportion of crashes (i.e. the proportion of total crashes due to IVIS). After applying a random effects meta-analysis to the findings of existing studies, it was found that 1.66% of crashes occur due to operating devices in total. In addition, it is indicated that about 0.6% of safety-critical incidents for professional drivers are due to in-vehicle device operation. The odds of crashes influenced by IVIS operation were also estimated and were found to be very low. From the findings of the present review and the meta-analysis, it is suggested that device operation as a risk factor while driving is a less researched aspect of driver distraction than others, and more studies would improve result estimates and transferability, especially for professional drivers. This study summarizes concisely the current effect of driver interaction with in-vehicle information systems on crashes, which might become considerably pertinent in view of the increasing deployment of vehicles with increasing levels of automation.  相似文献   

20.
There is a growing interest in the application of the machine learning techniques in predicting the motorcycle crash severity. This is partly due to a progress in autonomous vehicles technology, and machine learning technique, which as a main component of autonomous vehicle could be implemented for traffic safety enhancement. Wyoming's motorcycle crash fatalities constitute a concern since the count of riders being killed in motorcycle crashes in 2014 was 11% of the total road fatalities in the state. The first step of crash reduction could be achieved through identification of contributory factors to crashes. This could be accomplished by using a right model with high accuracy in predicting crashes. Thus, this study adopted random forest, support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines and binary logistic regression techniques to predict the injury severity outcomes of motorcycle crashes. Even though researchers applied all the aforementioned techniques to model motorcycle injury severities, a comparative analysis to assess the predictive power of such modeling frameworks is limited. Hence, this study contributes to the road safety literature by comparing the performance of the discussed techniques. In this study, Wyoming's motorcycle crash injury severities are modeled as functions of the characteristics that give rise to crashes. Before conducting any analyses, feature reduction was used to identify a best number of predictors to be included in the model. Also to have an unbiased estimation of the performance of different machine learning techniques, 5-fold cross-validation was used for model performance evaluation. Two measure, Area under the curve (AUC), and confusion matrix were used to compare different models' performance. The machine learning results indicate that random forest model outperformed the other models with the least misclassification and higher AUC. It was also revealed that a dichotomous response variable, with fatality and incapacitation injury in one category, along with all other categories in another group would result in a lower misclassification rate than a polychotomous response variable. This might result from the nature of motorcycle crashes, lacking a protection compared with passenger cars, preventing machine learning technique to get trained properly. Moreover, the most important variables identified by the random forest model are those related to the operating speed, resentful other party, traffic volume, truck traffic volume, riding under the influence, horizontal curvature, wide roadway with more than two lanes and rider's age.  相似文献   

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