基于能力的装备保障性能研究

从装备各自的设计特性角度出发而形成的武器装备发展思路,未能考虑能力需求,也未从能力的角度来评价研制的最终成果,造成装备部署后,形成的作战能力和保障能力滞缓。提出了保障能力的定义和内涵,并研究提出以能力需求为出发点,以"联合作战方案—使命任务—保障能力—保障性能—关键技术突破—能力设计实现—能力评价—能力发挥和保持"为主线,用形成的能力来评价研制成果的保障能力形成过程,同时提出了保证装备尽快形成保障能力的对策与措施。     

海上防空作战能力结构研究

海上防空作战是海上舰艇编队遂行一切作战任务的重要保障,其作战过程可以分为近海支援防空作战、战斗机拦截作战、区域防空作战和末端防空作战.根据对海上防空作战过程的分析,可以分解出所需的各项作战能力:近海支援防空作战能力、战斗机拦截作战能力、区域防空作战能力和末端防空作战能力,从而建立完整的海上防空作战能力结构.针对每项作战能力的特点,设计相应的评估指标,如搜索跟踪类能力指标、指控类能力指标、制导火控类能力指标、命中毁伤类能力指标和电子自卫类能力指标等.     

基于数据挖掘技术的船体毁伤修复能力评价

船体毁伤修复能力评价结果具有重要实际意义,针对当前模型无法准确描述船体毁伤修复能力,使得船体毁伤修复能力评价存在错误率高的缺陷,设计了一种基于数据挖掘技术的船体毁伤修复能力评价模型。首先对船体毁伤修复能力评价原理进行分析,构建船体毁伤修复能力评价的目标函数,然后采用数据挖掘技术中的最小二乘支持向量机对船体毁伤修复能力评价样本进行学习,并对最小二乘支持向量机进行在线性能优化,建立船体毁伤修复能力评价模型,最后在Matlab 2018平台对船体毁伤修复能力评价效果进行测试,测试结果表明,基于数据挖掘技术的船体毁伤修复能力评价正确率超过90%,降低了船体毁伤修复能力评价的时间复杂度,船体毁伤修复能力评价速度更快。     

提升档案服务能力的四大储备

随着社会的发展,＂能力＂建设已成为一个重要意义的新概念和社会发展的新理念,现在各大媒体都在传递着一个一个＂能力＂的话题,如国家司法机关的执法能力、有关民生的社会保障能力、防震救灾能力、抗旱防汛能力、科技创新能力等等都在强调各行各业能力的实现与提高。在2010年全国档案工作主要任务的工作报告中,     

基于仿真模型的滚装码头规划建设问题研究

基于新海港码头现状以及发展要求,针对滚装码头实际运行能力能否满足运输需求、尤其是高峰期段码头能力适应性问题,通过建立滚装码头港航系统仿真模型,模拟客滚船港内作业流程,并对不同工况下高峰期段客滚船作业和运营进行重点分析,进一步剖析影响码头通过能力的因素。通过研究认为,在新海港区滚装码头建设过程中,对水域条件、船舶操作等因素对码头能力的影响考虑不足,致使部分新增码头能力不能得到充分利用。建议在类似工程规划建设中,加强航道能力、港池能力、码头能力与陆上配套设施能力协调的研究,以保障各系统能力均能得到充分发挥。     

潜艇作战系统能力提升技术途径分析

潜艇作战系统是潜艇重要组成部分,其能力是潜艇战斗力的直接体现,本文针对性研究了国外先进潜艇作战系统特点,结合国内相关技术研究情况,对作战系统主要性能进行系列化对比分析,阐述了潜艇作战系统能力提升的技术途径。潜艇综合作战能力与自身动力、噪声、探测能力、态势生成能力、指挥能力、武器控制能力及武器性能等密切相关,各项能力的形成取决于不同专业领域核心技术,但以上能力又互相关联,在总体性能及外围条件一定的情况下,研究如何通过深度挖潜、优化设计,实现作战系统能力的提升,对于提高潜艇综合作战能力具有特殊意义。     

大学生网上英语交际能力及培养的调查分析

用定性和定量分析方法研究大学生网上英语交际能力及对培养该能力的认识。研究结果表明,目前学生英语用网能力十分有限。提出学生语言综合运用能力应包括网上及网下两种交际能力,清除网络英语障碍,培养学生网上英语交际能力十分必要。     

不同螺旋桨配置下船舶的定位能力比较

动力定位能力分析对于螺旋桨和螺旋桨配置的选型非常重要,并且可以初步探究一个新设计的动力定位船舶的定位能力。该文中,基于一个新奇的综合动力定位能力标准,探究了螺旋桨的配置对动力定位能力的影响。不同螺旋桨配置下定位能力的比较在一个半潜平台上进行。动力定位能力的结果由一个最新编写的程序计算得到。从得到的结果看,螺旋桨的配置对动力定位能力产生影响。基于综合定位能力标准,定位能力的比较非常高效和准确。而且,可以得到一个结论：与海洋结构物的中心距离越大的螺旋桨对综合定位能力的影响越明显。     

舰船工业能力与海军武备需求适应性

为有效评估舰船工业能力与海军武备需求的适应程度,将舰船工业能力分为环境优势、建造能力、研发能力和国际合作能力4个方面,建立4种能力与海军武备需求之间适应性的关联,运用灰色层次分析法建立适应性评估模型。最后以日本舰船工业为例,评估得出日本舰船工业能力略超前适应其舰艇武备发展需求,与事实相符,验证了该方法的有效性。     

集装箱码头年通过能力仿真及其评价指标

在集装箱码头规划阶段,通常会根据公式计算码头年通过能力设计值,由于船舶到港时间、到港船舶尺寸、载重吨位、装卸箱量等均具有不稳定性和不平衡性,导致码头设计通过能力和实际通过能力相差较大。针对该问题进行集装箱码头年通过能力评估研究,以某集装箱码头为例,通过计算机仿真软件FlexSim建立集装箱码头装卸系统宏观仿真模型,综合考虑泊位年通过能力和堆场堆存能力对集装箱码头年通过能力的影响,给出集装箱码头年通过能力仿真评价指标,通过分析码头的仿真数据,得到该集装箱码头的年通过能力评估值为260万TEU。集装箱码头年通过能力的合理评估可以更好地为码头管理决策提供科学依据,有利于提高码头服务水平。     

大力推进信息化建设 提升企业综合竞争力

结合企业计算机应用的实际,以及造船生产劳动强度大、劳动环境恶劣、船用配件和材料种类繁多等特点,介绍在造船工业中,将设计、制造、管理等集为一体纳入计算机综合管理的集成系统,目的在于寻求一种采用计算机技术挖掘企业内部潜力,提高工作效率、推进企业信息化、加快企业生产和管理现代化、提升企业综合竞争力的新途径。     

集装箱港区土地集约利用

针对集装箱港区陆域土地集约化利用问题,结合行业规范、相关规划布置理论,采用数值计算、估算、统计相结合的方法,提出了一种用于港区陆域面积估算的公式。选取国内部分港区进行验证,基于假设的计算结果与实际用地面积相比偏差在-19. 63%～24. 08%,其中总偏差在15%、10%、5%以内的数量分别占样本总数量的80%、71%和43%,验证了公式的有效性。基于公式参数讨论和典型港区共性因素分析,认为港区陆域土地集约利用可采取以下措施:提高设备覆盖率,提高水-水中转比例,布置自动化堆场,采用新一代信息技术提高货物周转速度,布置集约化辅助生产设施,优化道路系统减少道路面积占比等。     

Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

Disused shrimp ponds: Options for redevelopment of mangroves

Associated with the rapid increase in the production of cultured marine shrimp has been large‐scale conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds. Production in many regions has proved to be unsustainable, largely due to inappropriate construction methods, poor environmental conditions, overstocking, and disease. A number of shrimp ponds consequently are unproductive and lie idle. Accurate assessments of pond disuse are difficult to obtain; however, unofficial estimates have suggested that as many as 70% of ponds may be disused after a period in production. Pond construction, shrimp culture, and pond disuse lead to alterations to the physical and chemical properties of soil, hydrological conditions, and the flora and fauna composition of the pond area. The case for restoration, or rehabilitation to a sustainable use, is strong. Consideration must be given to the causes of production failure, the environmental conditions remaining following disuse, the needs and preferences of pond owners and coastal managers, and technical constraints.     

Perceptions of Threats Facing Cabo de Palos - Islas Hormigas MPA and Potential Solutions

Many marine protected areas (MPAs) face a multitude of threats to the ecosystems that they have been established to conserve. This study is based on 111 interviews conducted in 2013–2014 designed to discover the perceptions of stakeholders about the threats, the causes of the threats, and their responses to the threats, to a well-established MPA – Cabo de Palos - Islas Hormigas (CPH-MPA). This MPA was created to safeguard fisheries and the associated artisanal fishers, but over time it has become a tourism “hotspot.” Resilience theory, which incorporates ecological resilience, social resilience, and individual resilience, helps us to analyze stakeholders' responses to threats by categorizing them into passive, adaptive, and transformative responses. We found respondents identified four main threats – over-fishing, excessive scuba diving, pollution, and invasive species; attributed the threats to three main causes – ineffective management, poor environmental stewardship, and climate change; and expressed three kinds of responses – do nothing, adapt, or transform – with a preference for adaptation and (especially) transformation. The lesson of this study is that it shows how, unless drastic action is taken to curb recreational diving activities, the CPH-MPA is in danger of changing from a fishing reserve to a largely unregulated leisure diving venue, which is unlikely to fulfill the requirements of resilience; ecological, social, or individual.     

船体零部件标准化设计思路

为了提高造船效率、降低造船成本、提高造船质量,造船行业需要引入先进的智能制造理念。船舶制造作为典型的离散型制造行业,其传统的船舶设计、制造模式在一定程度上限制了智能制造技术的大范围推广应用,从船体零部件标准化设计角度,研究如何利用标准化设计手段来扩大船厂智能制造应用范围和场景。形成船体零部件标准化、批量化设计原则和标准,达到降低船舶智能制造技术难度,最终实现船舶制造向连续型生产模式转变的目的。     

大型水面舰艇生命力快速评估方法研究

大型水面舰艇的生命力评估对于预见风险,采取措施减小生命力损失,提高作战能力具有重要意义。针对其体积庞大的特点,从强度角度入手采用类似于损管的分块方法,将主船体分为若干区域,沿船长及高度方向设定不同分块的参数。随机模拟被击中的位置以及武器数量和种类,计算相应情况下的破坏程度。设立评判准则分析生命力损失的情况,并且计算发生概率。通过以上措施,初步形成了快速评估生命力的方法,可以迅速地对大型水面舰艇的生命力状况做出估计,便于软件实现和应用。     

Maritime security guidelines: a study of Swedish ports’ perceived barriers to compliance

ABSTRACT

Due to the constant risk of piracy and terrorist attacks which cause disturbances within international shipping of goods, barriers to the adoption of maritime security guidelines (MSGs) at European ports have become prevalent. In this paper, a conceptual framework was created to explore the perceived barriers that prevent compliance with MSGs. To verify the conceptual framework, empirical data were collected using a mixed-methods approach, which was comprised of interviews with national experts and a survey of 47% of Swedish ports involved in the shipping of goods. According to the presented framework, the perceived barriers of Swedish ports to compliance with MSGs were linked to collaborations within the Swedish Maritime Security stakeholder network, available resources and educational knowledge about security culture. In addition, the perceived barriers of smaller ports were linked to the adaptation to MSGs at different levels and the absence of specific tools of maritime security management. Due to an increased interest in international shipping of goods, this paper is currently one of few that addresses the barriers to compliance with MSGs. Moreover, the paper presents a general conceptual framework, novel managerial implications and recommendations for future research.     

建立科学规范的工程船舶防台风机制

为解决工程船舶防台风难题,结合实际实施情况,通过对台风信息的收集、锚地的选择、计算台风何时影响施工点、船舶调遣最佳时间、船舶调迁防台、船舶进场施工的科学安排,减少了台风对船舶直接威胁,保障船员安全,有效避免无效防台给企业造成的浪费,确保承建工程的工期。     

Attitudes toward Participation in Cooperative Coastal Management: Four European Case Studies

Findings are reported of the VALCOAST project that had as one of its research objectives to ascertain: (a) stakeholder willingness to participate and cooperate in coastal management (CM), given local and national CM practices; and (b) stakeholder assessment of the "accessibility" and "friendliness" of current CM processes. The project involved case studies and stakeholder interviews in Belgium, Greece, Spain, and the UK. Major findings include: (1) most stakeholders are willing to cooperate in three out of the four case areas, but not to the same extent; (2) the participating "officials" in the case studies are expecting the stakeholders to be less willing to cooperate than the latter indicate; (3) stakeholders in all case studies do not expect to be heard by those responsible for CM, find it difficult to learn about the relevant institutional arrangements, and consider the communication of the objectives and anticipated impacts of CM policies to be inadequate. It is concluded that the strong evidence of stakeholders' potential willingness to cooperate in local initiatives is very encouraging for a devolved, regional approach to European Union coastal management policies, provided that this potential is capitalized upon in such policy processes.