2018年航空货运市场回顾与2019年展望

2018年全球航空货运市场持续疲软,需求增长率连续走低,中美贸易战前途未卜,在这种背景下,我国航空货运市场曲折前行。本文主要回顾了2018年全球航空货运市场以及中国航空货运市场现状,再以航空货运市场的货源结构、技术变革、发展模式为切入点,重点总结了2019年适合我国航空货运市场涉足的领域,为我国航空货运业的发展提供了可借鉴的新思路。     

航空货运市场发展与展望

2021年新冠肺炎疫情影响仍在继续,但受益于疫情得到有效控制,全球航空货运需求逐步恢复,中国民航在逆境中展示出了强大的韧性,航空货运市场恢复良好。本文主要回顾了2021年全球货运市场表现,并从疫苗运输、地区差异、货邮吞吐量、运力结构和相关政策等方面回顾我国航空货运市场表现,再从冷链物流、国际市场、智慧创新和物流格局切入,全面展望2022年我国航空货运市场的发展方向,为我国航空货运高质量发展提供理论支持。     

航空货运无纸化操作的发展

<正>一、全球航空货运市场蒸蒸日上尽管2005年世界航空货运量达到1760万吨,仅仅增长3%,低于2004年14%的增长率,但是全球航空货运市场走势强劲,全球航空货运市场吨公里需     

中国机场航空货运市场时空演变研究——基于2010-2019年运输机场航空货运数据

选取2010—2019年中国运输机场货邮吞吐量数据,运用核密度分析、标准差椭圆和标准距离方法,研究航空货运市场时空演变特征。结果表明,1)2010—2019年我国机场数量增长显著,东西部差距较为明显,但中西部地区新增机场数量显著增多,机场分布逐渐趋向均衡化发展。2）航空货运市场呈现“3+1核心”的发展格局,中西部地区货运增长较快,市场集聚程度逐渐降低。3）航空货运市场重心由东向西偏移,2010—2013年向西北方向偏移,2013—2019年向西南方向转移。通过对我国航空货运市场时空演变特征的研究,能够为优化我国航空货运市场布局和制定货运发展政策提供理论依据。     

中美航空货运市场不平衡性的原因分析

本文分析了导致中美航空货运市场在内的中国国际航空货运市场不平衡性的根本原因,在于生产与消费相分离的世界经济结构不平衡性,而这个不平衡性影响到中国的进出口商品结构,进而影响航空货运的不平衡性。     

我国航空货运市场特征及定价策略研究

航空货运是我国航空运输市场发展的新增长点,在社会经济发展中占据重要的位置。为提高我国航空货运收益,本文首先分析了航空货运市场特征,包括季节性变化规律、行业集中度和航线网络布局等,并结合专业访谈与文献调研初步确定货运定价影响因素。定性分析的基础上进行定量研究,基于某速运公司年度货运数据,借助SPSS软件做因素相关性分析,根据相关性的强弱最终确定航空货运定价影响因素,从而为航空公司提供合理有效的货运定价策略,实现货运收益的提升,并促进我国航空货运市场的稳健发展。     

我国航空货运发展分析及政策建议研究

本文阐述了航空货运的发展与国家经济发展水平密切相关,是国家经济发展到达一定阶段的必然要求,我国航空货运尚处于发展初期。在全球航空货运量将持续增长、我国市场深刻变革带来的机遇下,我国航空货运应积极应对国际竞争、适应市场需求、借力国家战略而大力发展。最后,本文从加强各部门沟通协调、统一航空货运技术标准、放开货运地面服务市场准入和优化航空要素资源配置等方面,提出加快我国航空货运发展的政策建议。     

多机场货运协同发展路径选择——以京津冀为例

京津冀民航协同发展需要各机场货运的协同发展,而通过对1958-2016年京津冀多机场货运市场结构,以及1984年-2014年货运航线网络结构的研究,发现京津冀货运发展一直处于一个不平衡的状态。研究表明,北京首都机场一直处于垄断地位,航线网络点度中心度,中介中心度,接近中心度,一直处于第一;区域内多个小机场的航空货运发展空间有限,近十年的航空货运的市场集中度维持在0.8左右。为了促进京津冀多机场货运协同发展,必须克服京津冀多机场在机场发展理念、航空信息共享、航空运输资源协同配置、产业基础设施、人才、行政体制等方面的重重矛盾,采取先降低集中度,后提升协同度的协同发展路径,最终形成多核心货运协同发展模式。     

“十三五”时期我国发展航空货运枢纽的战略选择

"十三五"时期是我国规划发展以航空货运为主体的枢纽机场的重要机遇期。本文分别从机场和航空货运企业角度,论证了航空货运枢纽的形成机理,总结了建设航空货运枢纽的国际经验,提出了航空货运枢纽的决策支持分析方法,提出在我国中部地区建设一个服务全国的航空货运枢纽机场、促进航空物流业态创新和临空经济结构转型的政策建议。     

2006年世界航空运输形势展望

2006年正处于现行世界经济周期（复苏一高涨一衰退）的高涨期，世界航空公司业应是自2000年以来财务收益最好的一年。自2001～2002年以来一直稳定增长的航空公司客运，将乘坐全球经济快车继续前进，2006年的客运增长率将略高于过去几年来的平均数。客运增长的同时将表现出某些收益改善特点，随着2006年北美国内市场运力下调，收益改善在这一地区尤其明显。2005年全球航空货运情况不佳，这只是与2004年相比较而言——2004年的货运强势绝对是个例外情况，2006年伊始，货运已显示出恢复稳定增长态势。     

Bicycles in large cities in China

Bicycles are a main means of transport in China. This paper discusses several aspects of the current situation and future policy, including the production of bicycles, their possession and utilization in typical large cities, the reasons for their importance in communication, the advantages and problems of bicycle traffic, and two different opinions on solving the existing problems. The paper also deals with road design for bicycles and their regulation in China's cities.     

Travel choices in alcohol-related situations in Virginia

Transportation - Using survey data from 3004 respondents aged 21 and older in Northern Virginia, Richmond, and the Tidewater area, this paper identifies factors associated with respondents’...     

Parking policies in large cities in Germany

This article deals with highly motorized large West German cities of about 200,000 inhabitants and more, which usually provide reasonable public transport systems. Illegal parking with shares of about 40 to 50% of the total parking is widespread in the parking problem areas of those cities, especially in the inner-city residential and mixed-use areas. Parking spaces are demanded by residents, employees, customers and visitors, and by delivery and service traffic. The different characteristics of parking demands by different user groups are discussed. The total parking supply consists of public and private spaces. The share of private spaces is about 40 to 50% of the total parking spaces in German cities. The amount of car traffic generated by a parking space depends on parking duration and parking turnover, as well as on search traffic. So the change of a space from long-duration use of an employee to short-duration of customers — as often discussed in parking concepts — generates at least five-fold car traffic. The measurements and effects of parking control of public spaces as well as the parking regulations in zoning ordinances, restrictions on the construction of new private parking spaces and park-and-ride are discussed. Finally, a parking concept methodology — using the example of Frankfurt am Main — is discussed.     

Role of transport in rural development in Africa

Rural Africa is starved of transport services. The transport routes run towards the export enclaves and the coast.

The political, social and developmental rural transport benefits are discussed. Rural transport will help (i) integrate the country and ease its governance; (ii) widen markets; (iii) induce increased agricultural output, through new technologies, reduced transport costs, etc. The transport cost savings should be passed on to rural firms and producers. The paper warns against their accruing only to middlemen — agricultural parastatals inclusive, thereby stifling the benefits to production. This could happen under some forms of pan‐territorial pricing. Negative aspects of road development, e.g. the substitution of local goods by imports, increased migration and noise, are noted.

The place and role of project appraisal in rural road planning is acknowledged. The broad‐based development packages approach associated with Integrated Rural Development Projects has, despite its attractions, some pitfalls. It favours well established villages and ignores distribution benefits within villages.

Project appraisal can be used to justify socially uneconomic transport developments. However, rural road investment projects with immediate negative returns are unlikely to be funded. Given clear priorities, short of elaborate cost/benefit analysis, obvious road investments choices can be made by the local community. Greater public accountability of transport planners and peoples’ participation in determining rural transport needs and priorities is emphasized. Increased rural road maintenance especially through self‐help schemes and increased use of traditional modes of transport, e.g. walking, animal and water transport, is recommended.     

Changes in transport risk perception in urban populations in Norway from 2004 to 2013

Urban populations transport risk perception is interesting because it is associated with travel mode choices and use. This study investigates changes in transport-related risk constructs in the urban population in Norway in 2004 and 2013, and describes whether people perceive private or public to be associated with the highest risk. The results are based on self-completion questionnaire surveys conducted in two independent representative samples living in the same urban areas in 2004 (n?=?592) and 2013 (n?=?1035). Overall, the respondents perceived the risk as lower in 2013 than in 2004. For both time periods, people consistently assessed the risk constructs related to private motorized transportation as higher than corresponding risk in public transportation. The findings suggest that while transportation risk perception in urban populations may change over time, the pattern that private motorized transportation is associated with a higher perceived risk than public transportation remains stable.     

Logistics opportunities in Asia and development in Taiwan

The economy in Asia is growing rapidly. As a consequence, transportation and communication technologies and the changing needs of customers and shippers have resulted in Asian and Taiwan's logistics being in transition. This paper discusses why logistics changes, and explores the opportunities for Asian logistics development. The issues of logistics perspectives of private sectors in Taiwan are then raised. Finally, logistics development in Taiwan is described.     

Passenger rail in North America in the light of developments in Western Europe and Japan

Because of different geo‐demographic and economic conditions, the impact of the new passenger modes (road and air) on rail travel was much larger in North America than in Europe. In 1960s and 1970s, as the railway share of intercity traffic in North America shrunk to a negligible one or two percent, the passenger trains were abandoned by private railway companies and taken over by state organizations, which have continued to operate traditional trains and generate mounting losses. On the technology side, no attempts have been made to improve competitiveness of trains vis‐a‐vis automobiles and airplanes.

In Europe and Japan, the railways responded to the challenge by (i) upgrading the performance (speed) and comfort of traditional trains operating on existing tracks and (ii) developing trains which could, on short and intermediate range distances, compete successfully, in terms of speed and economy, with the road and air modes. The Japanese (Shinkansen trains) and French (TGV trains) experience clearly shows that trains operating on dedicated lines at average speeds of 150 to 200 km/hr provide a superior transportation service and economy on high‐traffic intercity routes of up to about 500 km length. In this paper the factors responsible for the present status of passenger rail in North America are analysed, the current policies in the U.S. and Canada are evaluated in the light of experience to date and developments abroad, and suggestions for a long‐term passenger rail policy are made. This includes examination of (i) the viability of continued subsidization of traditional train services, (ii) the viability of operation of faster trains on existing tracks, (iii) the scope for introduction of modern, fast trains on dedicated lines in high‐density, intercity corridors, (iv) the application of fast trains as access to major airports and integration of airports with fast intercity lines, and (v) the impact of energy (oil) consumption in transportation.

     

Mapping minibuses in Maputo and Nairobi: engaging paratransit in transportation planning in African cities

ABSTRACT

Often called paratransit because of their flexible stops, schedules and routes, minibuses make up the bulk of public transport in African cities. Despite their ubiquity and importance, these systems are poorly understood by transportation planners who tend to focus on large-scale urban infrastructure projects such as highways, commuter rail or bus rapid transit systems. The assumption within much of this planning is that these minibus systems are barriers to change and will become at most secondary “feeder” buses within large-scale projects, but structured plans detailing this vision are lacking. This paper argues that frequent failure to collect data and value important paratransit systems as a critical part of transportation in their own right is deeply problematic from the point of view of equity, access and inclusive and effective planning. We ask whether the growing number of bottom up mapping projects of minibus systems can disrupt this status quo. By comparing two mapping projects, Digital Matatus in Nairobi and the Mapa Dos Chapas in Maputo, we find that inclusive, collaborative mapping can help render these minibuses more visible in planning and provoke more grounded and inclusive “planning conversations” on multi-modal integration, passenger information and minibus upgrading, all key but relatively marginalised aspects of creating accessible, low emission, high quality and safe public transport in African cities.     

美国煤浆体管道检测方法的新进展

从煤浆密度和浓度、流变参数和粒子带电量测量3个方面简要地总结了美国煤浆检测技术的新方法、新仪器的发展状况,分析了其发展特点。这将有助于促进国内煤炭浆体管道输送的发展。     

Gender inequality in mobility and mode choice in Pakistan

Using the nationally representative dataset of the 2007 Pakistan Time-Use Survey, this paper examines gender differences in daily trip rate, mode choice, travel duration, and purpose of travel, which are previously unreported because of limited data availability. Wide gender mobility gaps are observed in the country, where women are less likely to travel, are half as mobile as men and may rely heavily on walking. The particular social and cultural context of the country, that renders women as private, secluded and family honor, seems influential in shaping their mobility and choice of activities. Demographic factors such as age, household income, and marital status significantly decrease female mobility levels. Hence, these findings call for a gender-based culturally responsive transportation policy in the country.