Prediction of seasonal maximum wave height for unevenly spaced time series by Black Widow Optimization algorithm

The present study aimed to predict the maximum seasonal wave height by new integrative data driven methods. For this purpose, two data-driven techniques, that are, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and the Support Vector Regression (SVR), were applied, and a BWO algorithm was used as an integrated method (ANFIS-BWO and SVR-BWO). In addition, the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm was used as a method integrated with SVR and ANFIS (SVR-PSO and ANFIS-PSO) to compare the performance of the newly developed methods (ANFIS-BWO and SVR-BWO). The wave data were collected in different seasons by a buoy station deployed in the southern Baltic Sea by the Institute of Hydro-Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Seasonal simulations were performed to investigate the effect of seasons on the maximum wave height. The wave data constituted an unevenly spaced time series. The maximum wave height was modeled using the maximum wave height period (T_max), the significant wave height (H_s), the significant wave period (T_s), and time steps (Δt). The results showed that the application of BWO and PSO algorithms increased the accuracy of ANFIS and SVR by about 18.45%. Moreover, the results show that PSO increased the accuracy of ANFIS and SVR by about 17.98% and 21.59%, respectively. The results of different runs indicated that the BWO is more stable to reach the global solution than PSO. The results also show that show that SVR-BWO is the most accurate model.     

URANS simulations of catamaran interference in shallow water

This paper investigates the interference effects of wave systems on a multi-hull vessel in shallow water. A numerical analysis is made using the URANS code CFDSHIP-Iowa V.4 on the DELFT Catamaran model 372. The test matrix for numerical computations includes two separation distances (s = 0.17; 0.23) and the depth values of h/T = 8.2, 2.5 and 2, at several speeds ranging within Fr _H = 0.775–1.739. Numerical results are compared with the experimental data of the Bulgarian Ship Hydrodynamic Center, and verification and validation for resistance, sinkage and trim are also performed. Results show that, at critical speed (Fr _H ≈ 1), the presence of a finite depth significantly affects the catamaran total resistance, which, in shallower water, increases considerably with respect to deep water. At low h/T, small effects of the water depth on resistance occur at subcritical and supercritical speeds. The interference effects seem to be more relevant in shallow, rather than in deep water, with maximum IF values registered at critical speeds (Fr _H ≈ 1). Similarly to deep water, the lower the separation distance the greater the interference value. Moreover, in shallow water some negative interference is observed at Fr > 0.5. Wave patterns and wave profiles are analyzed and a comparison is made between several configurations of catamaran and a mono-hull vessel, in order to analyze how water depth and separation distance determine resistance and interference. Finally, a vortex instability study is also included.     

Computational and experimental study on local ship loads in short and steep waves

Currently, little information exists on the validity of interface-capturing methods in predicting local ship wave loads in short and steep waves. This study compares computational and experimental results in such a case (kA = 0.24, L _wave /L _ship = 0.16). The results allow the variation of wave loading between ten locations in the bow area of the ship to be observed. The computations were performed with an unstructured RANS solver that models free-surface flows with a volume-of-fluid method. In the model tests, the wave loads were measured with pressure sensors. The analysis of the results focuses on the wave conditions and on the pressure histories of the local wave loads. The computational and experimental results are in good qualitative agreement and encourage the further use of the computational results.     

On the numerical accuracy of the wave load distribution on a ship advancing in short and steep waves

Defining numerical uncertainty is an important part of the practical application of a numerical method. In the case of a ship advancing in short and steep waves, little knowledge exists on the solution behaviour as a function of discretisation resolution. This paper studies an interface-capturing (VOF) solution for a passenger ship advancing in steep (kA = 0.24) and short waves (L _w /L _pp = 0.16). The focus is to estimate quantitative uncertainties for the longitudinal distributions of the first–third harmonic wave loads in the ship bow area. These estimates are derived from the results of three systematically refined discretisation resolutions. The obtained uncertainty distributions reveal that even the uncertainty of the first harmonic wave load varies significantly along the ship bow area. It is shown that the largest local uncertainties of the first harmonic wave load relate to the differences in the local details of the propagating and deforming encountered waves along the hull. This paper also discusses the challenges that were encountered in the quantification of the uncertainties for this complex flow case.     

Operational Oceanography System applied to the Prestige oil-spillage event

This contribution describes the procedure used during the Prestige oil-spillage event, by means of an Operational Oceanography System, and the behaviour of the present prediction tools (hydrodynamic and dispersion models) applied to it. The accuracy of these tools is estimated by a reanalysis of field data transmitted by a sea surface drifting buoy, released at the time of the oil spill. The numerical models applied were the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), fed by the available six-hourly NCEP atmospheric information, together with a Lagrangian Particle-Tracking Model (LPTM). ROMS has been used to estimate the current fields for the Bay of Biscay, whilst the LPTM has provided the oil spill trajectories. The results demonstrate that the accuracy of the numerical models depends upon the quality of the meteorological input data. In this case, the current fields at the sea surface, derived by ROMS, have been underestimated by the wind fields of the NCEP reanalysis data. An efficient calibration of these wind fields, with data provided by the Gascony buoy (fixed oceanic and atmospheric station), achieves more realistic looking results; this is reflected in the comparison between the buoy trajectory predicted numerically and the tracked movements of the drifting buoy.     

基于软计算的低于数据范围的半圆形防波堤波浪反射预报（英文）

Coastal defenses such as the breakwaters are important structures to maintain the navigation conditions in a harbor. The estimation of their hydrodynamic characteristics is conventionally done using physical models, subjecting to higher costs and prolonged procedures. Soft computing methods prove to be useful tools, in cases where the data availability from physical models is limited. The present paper employs adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system(ANFIS) and artificial neural network(ANN) models to the data obtained from physical model studies to develop a novel methodology to predict the reflection coefficient(K_r) of seaside perforated semicircular breakwaters under low wave heights, for which no physical model data is available. The prediction was done using the input parameters viz., incident wave height(Hi), wave period(T), center-to-center spacing of perforations(S), diameter of perforations(D), radius of semicircular caisson(R), water depth(d), and semicircular breakwater structure height(h_s). The study shows the prediction below the available data range of wave heights is possible by ANFIS and ANN models. However, the ANFIS performed better with R~2= 0.9775 and the error reduced in comparison with the ANN model with R~2= 0.9751. Study includes conventional data segregation and prediction using ANN and ANFIS.     

Spectral Wave Modeling in Very Shallow Water at Southern Coast of Caspian Sea

This study evaluates the capability of the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model (version 41.01) in predicting significant wave height and spectral peak energy content for swell waves in very shallow water of surf zone during depth-induced wave breaking and dissipation. The model results were compared with field measurements at five nearshore stations. The results demonstrated that some breaker index formulations were successful for significant wave height prediction in surf zones. However, an incorrect shape of the energy spectrum and overestimated near spectral peak energy content at shallow water stations were obtained using all of the embedded depth-induced wave breaking formulations in SWAN. The dependent breaker index on relative depth (K_pd) formulation, which was successful in predicting near spectral peak energy content, resulted in an average error of 30%. Finally, this formulation was modified to enhance the model performance in reproducing the spectral peak energy content.     

Evaluation of two atmospheric models for wind–wave modelling in the NW Mediterranean

The NW Mediterranean experiences, as illustrated by the last decade, strong and rapidly varying storms with severe waves and winds. This has motivated a continuous validation of models and the efforts to improve wave and wind predictions. In this paper we use two atmospherics models, MASS (from SMC-Meteorological Office of Catalunya) and ARPEGE (from Météo-France), to force two third generation wave models: WAM and SWAN. The evaluation and comparison has been carried out for two severe storms registered in November 2001 and March–April 2002.The ARPEGE and MASS models predicted higher 10 m wind speeds than coastal meteorological stations, a fact attributed to local land influences. Regarding the 10 m wind direction, models do not present large differences, although considerable deviations from recorded data were found during some dates. ARPEGE presents less scatter and lower errors than MASS when compared with QuikSCAT data.The 10m wind fields from both atmospheric models were used to force the two selected wave models and analyse the errors and sensitivities when predicting severe wave storms. The wave model simulations show some interesting results; during the storm, the spatial wave pattern using ARPEGE showed a higher maximum, although the values of significant wave height at the buoys were lower than the ones forced by MASS (with both WAM and SWAN). The SWAN simulations show a better agreement in predicting the growing and waning of the storm peaks. The prediction of mean period was improved when using the ARPEGE wind field. However the underestimation by SWAN due to the large energy at high frequencies was evident. Validation of spectral shape predictions showed that it still has considerable error when predicting the full frequency spectra. The storms showed bimodal spectral features which were not always reproduced by wave models and are likely to be responsible for part of the discrepancies.     

Comparative analysis between operational weather prediction models and QuikSCAT wind data near the Galician coast

Wind measurements from SeaWinds scatterometer on the NASA QuikSCAT satellite and wind forecasts from two different operational numerical models provided by MeteoGalicia were compared for a 4-year period (2002–2005) in Galician coast environment. Available wind data buoy measurements were also used to complement the analysis. A statistical analysis based on mean errors, root mean square errors and complex correlation was performed from spatial, temporal and directional points of view.In the spatial comparison no significant differences between models and satellite were observed and the error magnitudes of the models are compatible with typical QuikSCAT errors. The suitability of satellite wind estimations for data assimilation in these models must be further investigated. Negative bias of models with respect to the satellite was also confirmed with buoy data, in such a way that models overestimation is smaller than the satellite one. Big errors in wind direction appear in southeasterly and southwesterly winds for both satellite and models, contributing to high RMSE values when compared to buoy data. These errors were mainly attributed to the effect of insufficient spatial resolution near shore.     

A medium-resolution wave hindcast study over the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea

The present study is aimed at determining the confidence limits of design wave parameters derived from numerical modeling—for both extremes and operational conditions—over the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea. The paper presents the methodology and results of an extensive validation activity conducted on a chain of medium-resolution third-generation wave models used for hindcast purposes. The stringent requirements of state-of-the-art coastal and offshore engineering applications over this area make the adoption of medium- or high-resolution hindcast wave and wind models almost mandatory because of the complex coastal geometry, bathymetry, and orography that in turn lead to large variations of the design wave parameters even within small regions. The chains of nested meteorological and wave models used in this hindcast study belong to the ETA and WaveWatch III families, respectively. In this study the wind and wave numerical models have been run over the past 20 years, with increasing resolutions of the wave models from 0.2° up to 0.04°. The results presented herein have 0.1° resolution for both wind and wave models. The wave data obtained are compared with available measurements from 14 wave buoys in coastal zones in the Central and Western Mediterranean Sea.     

Local joint flexibility of tubular T/Y-joints retrofitted with GFRP under in-plane bending moment

In the present paper, the Local Joint Flexibility (LJF) of tubular T/Y-joints retrofitted with Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) under IPB moment is studied and discussed. For this aim, a finite element (FE) model was generated and verified with the results of available experimental data and parametric formulas. Afterward, a set of 158 finite element (FE) models was created to evaluate the efficacy of the FRP sheets (number, length, and orientation), the brace inclination angle (θ), and the non-dimensional parameters (β, τ, and γ) on the LJF coefficient (f_LJF) and the f_LJF ratio of the retrofitted to the associated un-retrofitted joint. In the FE models, the efficacy of the weld profile and the contact between the FRP and the steel members (chord, weld, and brace) was considered. Also, analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to identify the most dominant parameters which affect the f_LJF ratios. Results showed that in the retrofitted joints, the increment of the FRP sheet number results in the notable drop of the f_LJF. But, the efficacy of the FRP sheet orientation on the f_LJF can be ignored. Despite the considerable efficacy of the FRP sheets on the behavior of the tubular joints, there was not any study on the LJF in the joints retrofitted with FRP. Hence, after an extensive parametric study, the results were used to derive a parametric equation for determining the f_LJF of T/Y-joints retrofitted with FRP. Moreover, the derived equation was checked according to the UK DoE acceptance criteria.     

Experimental study on the wave-induced dynamic response and hydrodynamic characteristics of a submerged floating tunnel with elastically truncated boundary condition

Hydrodynamic load and motion response are the first considerations in the structural design of a submerged floating tunnel (SFT). Currently, most of the relevant studies have been based on a two-dimensional model test with a fixed or fully free boundary condition, which inhibits a deep investigation of the hydrodynamic characteristics with an elastic constraint. As a result, a series of difficulties exist in the structural design and analysis of an SFT. In this study, an SFT model with a one-degree-of-freedom vertical elastically truncated boundary condition was established to investigate the motion response and hydrodynamic characteristics of the tube under the wave action. The effect of several typical hydrodynamic parameters, such as the buoyancy-weight ratio, γ, the relative frequency, f/f_N, the Keulegan–Carpenter (KC) number, the reduced velocity, U_r, the Reynolds number, Re, and the generalized Ursell_s number, on the motion characteristics of the tube, were selectively analyzed, and the reverse feedback mechanism from the tube's motion response to the hydrodynamic loads was confirmed. Finally, the critical hydrodynamic parameters corresponding to the maximum motion response at different values of γ were obtained, and a formula for calculating the hydrodynamic load parameters of the SFT in the motion state was established. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: (i) Under the wave action, the motion of the SFT shows an apparent nonlinearity, which is mainly caused by the intensive interaction between the tube and its surrounding water particles, as well as the nonlinearity of the wave. (ii) The relative displacement of the tube first increases and then decreases with increasing values of f/f_N, U_r, KC number, Re, and the generalized Ursell_s number. (iii) γ is inversely proportional to the maximum relative displacement of the tube and the wave force on the tube in its motion direction. (iv) Under the motion boundary condition (as opposed to the fixed boundary condition), the peak frequency of the wave force on the SFT in its motion direction decreases and approaches the natural vibration frequency of the tube, whereas the wave force perpendicular to the motion direction increases. When the incident wave frequency is close to the natural vibration frequency of the tube, the tube resonates easily, leading to an increased wave force in the motion direction. (v) If the velocity in the Morison equation is substituted by the water particle velocity measured when the tube is at its equilibrium position, the inertia coefficient in the motion direction of the tube is linearly related to its displacement, whereas that in the direction perpendicular to the motion direction is logarithmically related to its displacement.     

Numerical analysis of surface piercing propeller in unsteady conditions and cupped effect on ventilation pattern of blade cross-section

The aim of this study is to calculate hydrodynamic performance and ventilation flow around wedge, 2D blade and 3D surface piercing propeller (SPP), using computational fluid dynamic based on Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes method. First, numerical analyses for two-phase fluid flow around the wedge and 2D blade section (cupped and non-cupped) are presented. Flow ventilation, pressure distribution and forces are determined and compared with experimental data. Then, the method is extended to predict the hydrodynamic performance of propeller SPP-841B. The propeller exhibits a cupped blade. In the simulated configuration, SPP is one-third submerged (I = h/D = 0.33) and is working at various loadings with full ventilation occurring at low advance coefficient (J). The open water performance, pressure distribution, forces/moments and ventilation pattern on the SPP-841B model are obtained and compared with experimental data. The numerical results are in good agreement with experimental measurements, especially at high advance coefficient.     

飓风极值波浪数值模拟

飓风浪对于船舶航行、海洋和海岸结构物的安全意义重大,分析工程区设计波要素需要考虑飓风引起的大浪。采用YoungSobey风场模型建立飓风风场,以飓风风场作为第三代波浪模型MIKE 21 SW的驱动场,对发生在大西洋的飓风IRENE引起的飓风浪进行模拟,并将模拟结果与实测浮标数据进行对比。对比结果显示,MIKE 21 SW可以很好地模拟飓风引起的极值波浪要素。     

Assessment of wind quality for oceanographic modelling in semi-enclosed basins

The quality of surface winds derived from four meteorological models is assessed in the semi-enclosed Adriatic Sea over a 2-month period: a global hydrostatic model ECMWF T511 (40 km resolution), a hydrostatic limited area model LAMBO (20 km), and two non-hydrostatic limited area models: LAMI (7 km) and COAMPS™ (4 km). These wind models are used to drive a 2 km resolution wave model (SWAN) of the Adriatic, and wind and wave results are compared with observations at the ISMAR oceanographic tower off Venice. Waves are also compared at buoy locations near Ancona and Ortona. Consistently with earlier studies, the ECMWF fields underestimate the wind magnitude and do not reproduce the known spatial structure of strong wind events. The results show that the higher-resolution, limited area models LAMI and COAMPS exhibit better amplitude response than the coarser ECMWF: there is a 3- to 4-fold reduction of the wind underestimation at the platform (from 36% to 8–11%). The wave response is also improved with LAMI and COAMPS: there is a 2-fold reduction in the underestimation of wave heights at the platform. These non-hydrostatic models also produce wind fields with more realistic small-scale, spatial structure during strong wind events. The temporal correlation between observed and modelled wind, however, is highest with the global ECMWF model due to the fact that large-scale features can be predicted deterministically, whereas small-scale features can only be predicted stochastically. Models with less small-scale structure have better correlation because they have less “noise.” This explanation is supported by increased correlation between modelled and observed waves, the waves representing a smoothing of the wind over fetch and duration. Although there is room for improvement, the high-resolution, non-hydrostatic models (LAMI and COAMPS) offer significant advantages for driving oceanographic simulations in semi-enclosed basins such as the Adriatic Sea.     

Experimental investigation on scour development and scour protection for offshore converter platform

Local scour around the offshore converter platform caused by current and wave will lead to the instability of foundation. A series of experiments are performed to investigate the scour development and scour protection of the offshore converter platform. The development and evolution characteristics of the local scour around the gravity based structure foundation under the actions of current flow and wave are analyzed. The results show that the edge scour mainly occurs at the lateral sides of the platform and the scour pits are symmetrical about the centerline of the platform in the streamwise flow direction. The scour depth around the gravity based structure increases with the increase of flow velocity. The inclination and collapse of the platform is observed at α = 90° and U₀ = 0.25 m/s. The sand ripples are observed around the gravity based structure under the wave action, and the scour depth increases with the increase of wave height and wave period. Based on the comparisons of different scour protection methods, the combined bionic grass-geotextile-riprap protection has the best scour protection efficiency for the offshore converter platform.     

Initial results from long-term measurements of atmospheric humidity and related parameters in the marine boundary layer at two locations in the Gulf of Mexico

Measurements of boundary layer moisture have been acquired from Rotronic MP-100 sensors deployed on two NDBC buoys in the northern Gulf of Mexico from June through November 1993. For one sensor, which was retrieved approximately 8 months after deployment, the post- and precalibrations agreed closely and fell well within WMO specifications for accuracy. The second sensor operated continuously from June 1993 to February 1997 (3.5 years). Buoy observations of relative humidity and supporting data were used to calculate specific humidity and the surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat. Specific humidities from the buoys were compared with observations of moisture obtained from nearby ship reports, and the correlations were generally high (0.7–0.9). Surface gravity wave spectra were also acquired. The time series of specific humidity and the other buoy parameters revealed three primary scales of variability, small (h), synoptic (days), and seasonal (months). The synoptic variability was clearly dominant and occurred primarily during September, October, and November. Most of the synoptic variability was due to frontal systems that dropped down into the Gulf of Mexico from the continental US followed by air masses which were cold and dry. Cross-correlation analyses of the buoy data indicated that: (1) the moisture field was highly coherent over distances of 800 km or more in the northern Gulf of Mexico; and (2) both specific humidity and air temperature served as tracers of the motion associated with propagating atmospheric disturbances. These correlation analyses also revealed that the prevailing weather systems generally entered the buoy domain from the South prior to September, but primarily from the North thereafter. Spectra of the various buoy parameters indicated strong diurnal and semidiurnal variability for barometric pressure and sea surface temperature (SST) and lesser variability for air temperature, wind speed and significant wave height. The surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat were dominated by the synoptic events which took place from September through November with the transfer of latent heat being primarily from the ocean to the atmosphere. Finally, an analysis of the surface wave observations from each buoy, which included calculations of wave age and estimates of surface roughness, indicate that major heat and moisture flux events coincide with periods of active wave growth, although the data were insufficient to identify any causal relationships.     

导管架平台拆除安全性分析

随着海洋石油工业的迅猛发展,废弃海洋平台的拆除问题已成为海洋工程界的研究热点,并得到世界各国该领域的广泛关注．在废弃导管架平台拆除过程中,保证其安全性是非常重要的．本文提出了用于分析导管架平台拆除安全性的危险指标Do和Ds,通过对Do和Ds的各列数据进行比较或对Do和Ds的各行数据做出折线图,可以很容易的得出最安全的桩基切割顺序。