Achieving political acceptability for new transport infrastructure in congested urban regions

This paper analyzes the efficiency and political acceptability of road pricing and infrastructure policies targeted at relieving urban congestion. It combines a stylized transport model of an urban road network with a model of the political process that incorporates interactions between voters, citizen interest groups and politicians to explore the possibilities to reach political acceptability for efficient transport policies. In a numerical illustration, the paper compares a set of pricing and investment policies in terms of efficiency and acceptability. The illustration shows how conflicting interests can lead to non-efficient policies being chosen.     

Factors influencing destination choice for the urban grocery shopping trip

Destination choice for the urban grocery shopping trip is hypothesized to be determined by three factors: the individual's perception of the destination, the individual's accessibility to the destination and the relative number of opportunities to exercise any particular choice. Results of a multinomial logit model estimation support this hypothesis and provide useful information concerning the role of urban form in this destination choice situation. It is determined that accessibility is the primary aspect influencing destination choice and that its effect is nonlinear.On leave 1977-78 from State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York 14214.     

Assessing the social costs of urban transport infrastructure options in low and middle income countries

ABSTRACT

This paper develops cost models for urban transport infrastructure options in situations where motorcycles and various forms of taxis are important modes of transport. The total social costs (TSCs) of conventional bus, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Monorail, Metro (Elevated Rail), car, motorcycle, Taxi and Uber are calculated for an urban corridor covering operator, user and external costs. Based on the parameters for a 7?km corridor in Hanoi, Vietnam, the results show the lowest average social cost (ASC) transport modes for different ranges of demand. Motorcycle might be the best option at low demand levels while conventional bus has advantages with low-medium demand. At medium demand levels, bus-based technologies and Monorail are competitive options while Metro, with a higher person capacity, is the best alternative at the highest demand levels. Compared to other modes, the ASCs of car and Taxi/Uber are greater because of high capital cost (related to vehicles) per passenger and low occupancy. Transport planners and decision makers in low and middle income countries (LMICs) can draw on the findings of this study. However, various limitations are identified and additional research is suggested.     

Tales on the dark side of the transport infrastructure provision: a systematic literature review of the determinants of cost overruns

ABSTRACT

Cost overruns are an endemic feature of the provision of transport infrastructure worldwide. In recent decades, a considerable amount of studies has been devoted to assessing the magnitude and determinants of cost overruns in the transportation sector. However, the empirical findings are scattered between different strands of literature, ranging from the fields of construction engineering and management to that of applied economics. To shed light on the determinants of cost overruns in the execution of transport infrastructure projects, we conduct a systematic review of the empirical literature on the topic. Of the 945 articles retrieved, 26 articles published between 2000 and 2016 meet our inclusion criteria. For them, we describe the different empirical approaches, we provide a classification of the determinants employed in the analyses and summarise their impact on cost overruns. Finally, we suggest some directions for further research in the field.     

Multi-criteria analysis of transport infrastructure projects

Planning, construction and operation of transport infrastructure are associated with a multitude of adverse effects on the environment. The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) are important legal instruments of the European Union's environmental policy that allows for identifying, predicting, preventing, and mitigating and or compensating for these adverse effects. As part of the environmental impact assessment, variants of planned activities and investment projects are considered in order to select the option, which is the most favourable from the environmental point of view. The primary goal of this work is to examine the possibility of using multi-criteria methods in order to select the route variant most favourable for the environment. In the first stage, a review of global literature from 2010 to 2019 was conducted on the subject of MCDM/MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Making/Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis) methods used in transportation. Based on the review, it was proven that the most popular methods used to solve multi-criteria decision problems in the field of transport are respectively: AHP with modifications, TOPSIS, DEMATEL, as well as methods encompassed in the so-called European trend, i.e. PROMETHEE and ELECTRE. Four selected methods were used in the empirical part of this work. They were used to select the variant of the expressway section in north-eastern Poland and compare the result of the analysis with the choice made in the analyzed environmental impact report.     

An assessment of cost management regimes in British rail infrastructure provision

Over the last decade, British railway engineering efficiency has come under close scrutiny, with general perceptions of massive maintenance cost escalations and a general lack of control over these costs. This is exemplified by headline figures such as Roger Ford??s perceptions of a 50% rise in maintenance costs since privatisation (Mod Railw 638:8, 2001), or the more recent figure of a doubling in all rail costs since privatisation presented by Shaoul (Public Money Manag 26:151?C158, 2006). Little, however, has appeared in the academic literature on the subject. This paper considers these issues through an examination of British railway infrastructure costs over the period 1980?C2009, which has seen three different infrastructure management regimes in place??the nationalised BR (1980?C1994), the privatised Railtrack (1995?C2001) and the not for dividend Network Rail (2002?C2010). Infrastructure costs are examined in total for all operating costs (including maintenance but excluding renewals and depreciation), and under two sub categories, signalling and management costs. The results show that in the case of total operating costs, by the end of the period (up to 2010) these had returned to pre-privatisation levels. The results also show that costs increased significantly following privatisation due to imperfect competition in sub contractor markets, but large declines in the last 6?years have eradicated most of these costs increases, although still do not match the best achieved under full public sector management. Management costs associated with the infrastructure on the other hand have increased significantly.     

Evaluating transport infrastructure decisions under uncertainty

This study uses a hybrid approach, combining cost–benefit analysis (CBA), multiple criteria decision analysis, and Dempster–Shafer Theory, to evaluate transport infrastructure decisions. This approach not only retains the advantages of CBA, but it also facilitates the incorporation of incomplete information into the evaluation process. A particular advantage of this hybrid approach is that it can synthesize evaluation results into an easily understood unit, namely utility. A case study of Taiwan's Tamsui-Taipei Riverside Highway Project is used to illustrate the evaluation method. The evaluation results show that, whereas government officials and city council members support the highway project, academic researchers oppose it. Overall, the decision group tends to positively approve this transport infrastructure investment. These results also reflect the actual situation in Taiwan as stakeholders grapple with the issues arising from the proposed Tamsui-Taipei Riverside Highway Project.     

Modelling the provision of transport with planned or market‐determined public transport services

Implications of the difference between planned and market‐determined public transport services for the modelling of the transport system and its use are examined. In the former case, the task for government seeking to optimise performance of the transport system has a standard bi‐level form, but in the latter case, the lower‐level problem in the bi‐level formulation is to determine mutually consistent solutions to a pair of optimisation problems. The relevance of the mutually consistent solution in this context is contrasted with its sometimes misleading role in the context of optimisation of urban traffic signal control.     

Public transport provision in sparsely populated arid areas

Arid areas are characterized by dispersed patterns of population and economic activities in a hot and dry environment. Although basic human needs are identical everywhere, patterns of travel behaviour in arid lands are different from the patterns in more humid areas. The different behavioural patterns imply somewhat different demand patterns for transport services in general and transit services in particular. Good access to the scattered small communities and more so to the remote urban centres is of prime concern in the sparsely populated arid areas. And the demand patterns themselves raise the need to develop unusual types of service based on local conditions. This article presents the effects of the arid spatial and climatic conditions on transit demand and supply. After examining the service standards required in the sparselands and using the Israeli Negev region as an example, guidelines for developing regional transit systems in these arid areas are put forward.     

A mixed methods approach to the social assessment of transport infrastructure projects

Transportation - In this paper, we propose a mixed methods quantitative and qualitative approach to capture fully the measurable and less tangible social impacts of transport projects on local...     

Time-declining risk-adjusted social discount rates for transport infrastructure planning

Transportation - This paper proposes a social discount rate for transport infrastructure project evaluation in Germany that accounts for production efficiency, systematic traffic demand risk, as...     

A cost performance analysis of transport infrastructure construction in Slovenia

Due to limited data availability only a few studies have been able to provide statistically significant evidence on cost overruns in transport infrastructure investments and their systematic nature, and fewer still for road infrastructure investments. The body of available evidence refers to the most economically developed countries, while very little evidence was found regarding other countries. In this article the authors focus on cost performance of road infrastructure constructed through the National Motorway Construction Programme in Slovenia. Methodologically the study departs from other studies in this field by building on detailed expenditure data and not aggregate reports from the relevant institution. This enabled the analysis of four individual project cost categories (construction cost, land acquisition damages and others) and comparably more accurate results. A representative sample of randomly selected completed projects in the period 1995–2007 revealed that the cost overruns (19%; SD = 46.10%) in the entire period studied do not appear to be higher than in other comparable studies. At the same time the study results showed that cost overruns were unstable, i.e. much higher for older projects.     

Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model

This paper presents a newly developed decision support model to assess transport infrastructure projects: CBA-DK. The model combines use of conventional cost–benefit analysis to produce aggregated single point estimates, with quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to produce interval results. The embedded uncertainties within traditional CBA such as ex-ante based investment costs and travel time savings are of particular concern. The paper investigates these two impacts in terms of the Optimism Bias principle which is used to take account of the underestimation of construction costs and the overestimation of travel time savings. The CBA-DK methodological approach has been used to apply suitable probability distribution functions on the uncertain parameters, thus resulting in feasibility risk assessment moving from point to interval results. The proposed assessment model makes use of both deterministic and stochastic based information. Decision support as illustrated in this paper aims to provide assistance in the development and ultimately the choice of action, while accounting for the uncertainties surrounding transport appraisal schemes. The modelling framework is illustrated by the use of a case study appraising airport and runway alternatives in the capital of Greenland – Nuuk. The case study has been conducted in cooperation with the Home Rule Authorities of Greenland.     

Charging infrastructure demands of shared-use autonomous electric vehicles in urban areas

Ride-hailing is a clear initial market for autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) because it features high vehicle utilization levels and strong incentive to cut down labor costs. An extensive and reliable network of recharging infrastructure is the prerequisite to launch a lucrative AEV ride-hailing fleet. Hence, it is necessary to estimate the charging infrastructure demands for an AEV fleet in advance. This study proposes a charging system planning framework for a shared-use AEV fleet providing ride-hailing services in urban area. We first adopt an agent-based simulation model, called BEAM, to describe the complex behaviors of both passengers and transportation systems in urban cities. BEAM simulates the driving, parking and charging behaviors of the AEV fleet with range constraints and identifies times and locations of their charging demands. Then, based on BEAM simulation outputs, we adopt a hybrid algorithm to site and size charging stations to satisfy the charging demands subject to quality of service requirements. Based on the proposed framework, we estimate the charging infrastructure demands and calculate the corresponding economics and carbon emission impacts of electrifying a ride-hailing AEV fleet in the San Francisco Bay Area. We also investigate the impacts of various AEV and charging system parameters, e.g., fleet size, vehicle battery capacity and rated power of chargers, on the ride-hailing system’s overall costs.     

Priorities in urban transport research

Research should be fundamental to transportation as a phenomenon, and yet central to the problems that need to be solved. This paper looks at the history of transportation research in the U.S. with a view toward understanding the bases of past research priorities, and deriving a basis for proposing future priorities. As a result, varieties of research are proposed. They include research which is progressive by criteria of the field during past decades, research which is critical or established as needed by rejection of those criteria, and research which arises as newly required by recent mandates to the field. As the most significant conclusion, it is proposed that research models be built — models which put the understanding of urban structure dynamics ahead of accuracy in forecasting.The authors wish to acknowledge the assistance of Ray Blessing, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, and Thomas McKim, Department of Civil Engineering, M.I.T. This paper has profited from criticism by Professor Daniel Brand. The original version was prepared with support from the National Science Foundation.     

Unconventional funding of urban public transport

In the past decade public authorities have developed a wealth of creative funding mechanisms to support transit systems. This paper offers a taxonomy of various unconventional funding mechanisms (i.e. outside the domain of charges for transit passengers or general taxation schemes), based on a review of financial arrangements for public transport. The paper identifies which classes of funding are particularly successful for the financing of transit systems. This cross-sectional analysis uses a type of artificial intelligence method, viz. rough set analysis. It appears that the nature of the funding scheme and the degree of public acceptability are mainly responsible for the success of unconventional funding mechanisms.     

发展城市公交就必须超载吗?

据<信息时报>报道,2005年3月20日上午,广州一辆满载乘客的288线路公交车被执勤交警截停,交警以公交车超载为由对司机开出了罚单,除扣除2分外,还罚了200元款.对此,公交司机表示不满,因为在广州很少有不超载的公交车;交警的态度非常明确,按照交通法,公交车属机动车,超载就属违章行为,处罚是按章办事;而广东省政协委员王则楚对此事有不同意见,认为交警要以维护城市公共交通为先,公安部门应重新核定处罚超载公交标准.     

Key factors influencing the global passenger transport dynamics using the AIM/transport model

A bottom-up passenger transport model named AIM (Asia-pacific Integrated Model)/Transport model is developed by incorporating behavioral parameters and transportation technological details. This model is based on discrete based choice modelling covering 17 global regions soft-linked with the AIM/CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. In this paper, the model is used to assess the impact of various factors like travel time, energy efficiency improvement, load factor, mode preference along with environmental awareness factors on transport demand, energy and emissions. The modelling assessment results show that travel speed and land-use patterns have significant impact on the travel demand. High occupancy rate and shift towards the mass-transit system result in energy and emissions reduction. Implementation of carbon tax aligned with the two-degree target results in a 22% cumulative emission reduction from 2005 to 2100 relative to the baseline case. However, the reduction potential can be increased to 42% by combining behavioral and technology related mitigation options like mass-transit system speed improvement, transit oriented development, efficiency improvement, preference towards eco-friendly technologies and high vehicle occupancy.