Impacts of an emission based private car taxation policy - First year ex-post analysis

This paper assesses the impacts of a targeted policy designed to influence car purchasing trends towards lower CO₂ emitting vehicles. Vehicle registration tax and annual motor tax rates in Ireland changed in July 2008 from being based on engine size to emissions performance of cars. This paper provides a one year ex-post analysis of the first year of the tax change, tracking the change in purchasing trends arising from the measure related to specific CO₂ emissions, engine size and fuel, and the implications for car prices, CO₂ emissions abatement, and revenue gathered. While engine efficiency improvements had been offset by purchasing trends towards larger and generally less efficient cars in the past, with the average MJ/km remaining constant from 2000 to 2007, this analysis shows that in the first year of the new taxation system the average specific emissions of new cars fell by 13% to 145 g/km. This was brought about, not by a reduction in engine size, but rather through a significant shift to diesel cars. Despite an unexpected reduction in car sales due to a recession in 2008, the policy measure has had a larger than anticipated impact on CO₂ emissions, calculated to be 5.9 ktCO₂ in the first year of the measure. The strong price signal did however result in a 33% reduction in tax revenue from VRT, in financial terms amounting to a drop of €166 million compared to a baseline situation.     

Effects of economic disincentives on private car use

A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of economic disincentives on private car use. Eighty two-adult households who were owners of at least one car were randomly assigned to three experimental groups and one control group. Both experimental and control groups logged their car trips during one week before, one week during, and one week after treatment. The treatment consisted of charging two of the experimental groups approximately 100% of normal cost per kilometer of driving during 2 weeks, and charging the third experimental group this amount per kilometer of driving during 4 weeks. With the purpose of investigating whether deliberate planning increases the effect of economic disincentives, the households in one of the former and in the latter group were asked to fill out a prospective car log for the following week. The control group was not charged or requested to fill out a prospective car log but was in other respects treated in the same way. Analyses of the car logs and odometer readings during and at the end of treatment showed a weak reduction of car use due to the economic disincentives that however were almost completely dependent on planning.     

Carsharing: the impact of system characteristics on its potential to replace private car trips and reduce car ownership

Transportation - This paper aims to explore the potential of carsharing in replacing private car trips and reducing car ownership and how this is affected by its attributes. To that affect, a...     

The use of transferable permits in transport policy

This paper considers potential use of domestic transferable, or tradable, permit systems for the purposes of travel management, especially reducing environmental nuisances. The main arguments for and against the use of permits are analyzed. Secondly two case studies of existing permit systems are examined. The main conclusions are that tradable permits can address greenhouse gas and regional atmospheric pollutant emissions, and are suitable for congestion on a restricted time–space basis. Permits applied to mobile sources are technically feasible at acceptable financial cost for protecting sensitive geographical areas, and schemes applied to automakers for unitary vehicle emissions are also viable.     

A welfare cost assessment of various policy measures to reduce pollutant emissions from passenger road vehicles

Policy options to reduce passenger transport emissions in Europe are simulated with the EUCARS model. The EUCARS welfare analysis includes changes in consumer surplus, congestion and tax revenues. Simulations also address consumer myopia, i.e., the underestimation of fuel costs by car buyers. The best policy mix to reduce CO₂ consists of fuel taxes that are combined with differentiated purchase taxes to correct for the assumed myopia. This combination could reduce CO₂ emissions of over 25% without reducing contemporaneous well-being. For the reduction of conventional emissions, an equivalent best mix includes an emissions-based kilometre tax combined with a purchase feebate. This mix allows a 60% reduction in toxic emissions without any noticeable welfare reduction. The overall superiority of these two mixes compared to alternative choices is higher when the evaluation includes a broad group of externalities, a premium on public funds, and positive feedbacks across emissions categories. Local traffic management measures are important zero-cost complements for an overall emissions strategy.     

Investigating commute satisfaction differences of private car users and public transport users in a developing country context

Transportation - The objective of this paper is to investigate commute satisfaction differences across car users and public transport (PT) users in a developing country context. Using survey data...     

A causal analysis of car ownership and transit use

The causal structure underlying household mobility is examined in this study using a sample obtained from the Dutch National Mobility Panel survey. The results indicate that car ownership is strongly associated with mode use, but that it has no influence on weekly person trip generation by household members. Characteristics of mode use are examined through a causal analysis of changes in car ownership, number of drivers, number of car trips, and number of transit trips. It is shown that observed changes in mode use cannot be adequately explained by assuming that a change in transit use influences car use. The finding suggests that the increase in car use, which is a consequence of increasing car ownership, may not be suppressed by improving public transit.     

Integrated analysis of land-use and transport policy interventions

Analysing the impact of urban policy interventions on urban growth, land use and transport (LUT) is crucial for urban planners, transport planners and policy-makers, especially in rapidly growing cities. This paper presents a cellular automata-based land-use/transport interaction model – Metronamica-LUTI – for Jeddah that is used to analyse the impact of different proposed policy interventions under two urban growth scenarios for the period 2011–2031. Used as an integrated policy impact assessment tool, the model demonstrates a strong reciprocal relationship between LUT in Jeddah. This study shows that relevant spatial information and integrated policy impact assessment can provide rich insights into the interaction between LUT, the appropriate policy to consider in place and time which traditional planning practice and typical static urban models cannot do.     

Urban transport in Germany: providing feasible alternatives to the car

With the second highest level of car ownership in the world, and the third highest population density in Europe, Germany has adopted a range of policies to balance the many private benefits of car use with its serious social and environmental problems. In order to ‘tame’ the car, most German cities have implemented a twofold strategy of expanding and improving pedestrian, bicycling and public transport alternatives simultaneously with restricting car use and making it more expensive. That has increased political acceptability since the car‐restrictive measures are not perceived as mere punishment of car drivers. The results of this coordinated urban transport strategy have been impressive. Germany, as a whole, has managed to increase public transport use and to stabilize the car share of modal split. Some cities, of course, have been more successful than others, and this paper examines three of the most successful cities: Münster, Freiburg and Munich. In each of the cities, the percentage of travel by bicycling, walking and public transport has been raised over the past 20 years, while the car's share of modal split has fallen. This article documents the range of policies used to restrict car use, both in Germany as a whole, and in the three case‐study cities in particular. The key to success is found to be mutually reinforcing transport and land‐use policies. It is the combination of a whole set of coordinated policies that explains the dramatic success in changing travel behavior.     

An investigation into the feasibility of increasing rail use as an alternative to the car

With rail travel largely seen to be a more sustainable method than road-based transport, this paper examines the market segments amongst existing motorists that would be most likely to travel by train in the UK. The analysis is based on a large survey in London and the south-east of England, the area surrounding the routes operated by the train company First Capital Connect. Findings show that train travellers tend to be middle-aged and of a higher social grade, typically taking commuting or business trips. Individuals living within four miles of a station are considerably more likely to travel by rail than those further away. Given the competition from road-based transport, it is of particular interest that the measure highlighted to increase rail use for those living further away from the rail network is to enhance car parking at train stations.     

Public financing of private freight rail infrastructure to reduce highway congestion: A case study of public policy and decision making in the United States

As goods movement continues to increase it is expected to outpace infrastructure capacity in the United States. Moving a larger share of goods by rail rather than truck is a potentially cost effective part of a solution. Freight rail not only offers a substitute for truck trips but is a cleaner, more energy efficient, and safer alternative. Recently a number of private freight rail projects have received public funding. The public funds are aimed at increasing freight rail capacity with the goal of diverting some goods currently moved by truck to rail. While the benefits of moving goods by rail are relatively clear, it is unclear if public decision makers can effectively identify strategic rail investments that will achieve their policy goals. This study critically examines the analytical methods, models, and data that are commonly used to support decisions to provide public funds for private freight rail projects. This is accomplished through a case study of California’s Trade Corridors Improvement Fund program which provided $680 million for 11 freight rail projects. The study’s contributions include identifying critical analytical flaws and challenges affecting the benefit estimates that public funding decisions rely on. Improvements to current evaluation methods are also identified as are regulatory reforms and policy interventions that may offer more effective and reliable outcomes.     

On the use of Lagrangian observations from public transport and probe vehicles to estimate car space-mean speeds in bi-modal urban networks

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) has been recognized as a powerful framework to develop network-wide control strategies. Recently, the concept has been extended to the three-dimensional MFD, used to investigate traffic dynamics of multi-modal urban cities, where different transport modes compete for, and share the limited road infrastructure. In most cases, the macroscopic traffic variables are estimated using either loop detector data (LDD) or floating car data (FCD). Taking into account that none of these data sources might be available, in this study we propose novel estimation methods for the space-mean speed of cars based on: (i) the automatic vehicle location (AVL) data of public transport where no FCD is available; and (ii) the fused FCD and AVL data sources where both are available, but FCD is not complete. Both methods account for the network configuration layout and the configuration of the public transport system. The first method allows one to derive either uni-modal or bi-modal macroscopic fundamental relationships, even in the extreme cases where no LDD nor FCD exist. The second method does not require a priori knowledge about FCD penetration rates and can significantly improve the estimation accuracy of the macroscopic fundamental relationships. Using empirical data from the city of Zurich, we demonstrate the applicability and validate the accuracy of the proposed methods in real-life traffic scenarios, providing a cross-comparison with the existing estimation methods. Such empirical comparison is, to the best of our knowledge, the first of its kind. The findings show that the proposed AVL-based estimation method can provide a good approximation of the average speed of cars at the network level. On the other hand, by fusing the FCD and AVL data, especially in case of sparse FCD, it is possible to obtain a more representative outcome regarding the performance of multi-modal traffic.     

Changes in fuel economy: An analysis of the Spanish car market

This paper estimates the role that technological change and car characteristics have played in the rate of fuel consumption of vehicles over time. Using data from the Spanish car market from 1988 to 2013, we estimate a reduced form equation that relates fuel consumption with a set of car characteristics. The results for the sales-weighted sample of vehicles show that energy efficiency would have improved by 30% and 42% for petrol and diesel cars respectively had car characteristics been held constant at 1988 values. However, the shift to bigger and more fuel-consuming cars reduced the gains from technological progress. Additionally, using the results of the fuel equation we show that, besides a natural growth rate of 1.1%, technological progress is affected by both the international price of oil and the adoption of mandatory emission standards. Moreover, according to our estimations, a 1% growth in GDP would modify car characteristics in such a way that fuel consumption would increase by around 0.23% for petrol cars and 0.35% for diesel cars.     

Planning of urban transport systems in the Soviet Union: A policy analysis

The Soviet Union, which has traditionally given overiding priority to mass public transport, is now committed to achieve an acceptable balance between the use of public and private transport, the priority principally to be placed on public modes of travel. However, this evaluation of Soviet urban transport planning goals and objectives, problems and policies, casts doubt on the likelihood that this goal can be achieved. Without considerable determination to enforce restrictions on the private car, the growth in car usage for the journey-to-work is likely to multiply the problems of city centre congestion and threatens the viability of public transport systems, thus undermining the whole foundation of a “balanced approach” to transport planning.     

The influence of panel effects and inertia on travel cost elasticities for car use and public transport

Transportation - Studies on the impact of changes in travel costs on car and public transport use are typically based on cross-sectional travel survey data or time series analysis and do not...     

Transformation of transport policy in Great Britain

The British Government recently issued a white paper on its future transport strategy. Its central precept is unambiguous: current trends in traffic are unsustainable, from the point of view of the environment, business efficiency, health, and the unfeasibility of providing growth in road capacity that would keep pace with predicted growth in traffic. Much of the policy logic in the white paper stems from the explicit abandonment of `predict-and-provide' as a desirable — or possible — strategy. This leads to a recognition of the importance of a co-ordinated approach to public transport, walking and cycling, together with policies aimed at reducing less necessary travel where possible; ensuring that the costs of congestion and environmental pollution are, as far as practical, met by those who cause them (in which the revenue from new pricing systems would be kept under local control and used for transport improvements); an emphasis on better maintenance and management of the road system rather than increasing its capacity; consideration of the effects on transport of other policies in land-use, health, education etc; development of institutional structures or contractual arrangements able to bring these changes about; and conditions in which people's everyday behaviour and attitudes may be in harmony with policy, finance and environmental constraints. These themes did not arise out of the blue following the general election in 1997. They evolved over many years, especially in nearly ten years of intense discussion connected with the previous two governments' recognition that the 1989 road programme (`Roads to Prosperity'), in spite of its size and expense, would still not be nearly sufficient to keep pace with traffic growth, as well as being environmentally damaging. The process of discussion and argument has not ceased with publication of the white paper. A very interesting feature of the current debate is that its central argument is widely (though not unanimously) accepted in the media, with great emphasis on the problems of implementation. The author argues that the policy shift is genuine and firmly grounded in research, though with a number of real problems in implementation, research and methodology that will have to be addressed.     

Use of hybrid vehicles in Japan: An analysis of used car market data

Despite the rapid market penetration of hybrid vehicles (HVs), their usage and contributions to environmental protection have not been examined by vehicle traveling data. In this paper, we analyzed Japan’s used car market data to understand how HVs are used on the street. We find GV drivers with high travel demand switched from GVs to HVs during the transition period. Despite HV owners driving much longer distances than conventional gasoline vehicle (GV) owners, they emit less carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, owing to better fuel economy. We also find that HV owners spend roughly the same amount of money annually as GV owners. However, the per-kilometer travel cost of HVs is much lower than that of GVs even if the depreciation cost of the vehicle and vehicle related taxes are included in the analysis.     

A choice experiment on alternative fuel vehicle preferences of private car owners in the Netherlands

This paper presents results of an online stated choice experiment on preferences of Dutch private car owners for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) and their characteristics. Results show that negative preferences for alternative fuel vehicles are large, especially for the electric and fuel cell car, mostly as a result of their limited driving range and considerable refueling times. Preference for AFVs increases considerably with improvements on driving range, refueling time and fuel availability. Negative AFV preferences remain, however, also with substantial improvements in AFV characteristics; the remaining willingness to accept is on average € 10,000–€ 20,000 per AFV. Results from a mixed logit model show that consumer preferences for AFVs and AFV characteristics are heterogeneous to a large extent, in particular for the electric car, additional detour time and fuel time for the electric and fuel cell car. An interaction model reveals that annual mileage is by far the most important factor that determines heterogeneity in preferences for the electric and fuel cell car. When annual mileage increases, the preference for electric and fuel cell cars decreases substantially, whilst the willingness to pay for driving range increases substantially. Other variables such as using the car for holidays abroad and the daily commute also appear to be relevant for car choice.     

Cost-benefit analysis according to Sen: An application in the evaluation of transport infrastructures in France

Made compulsory in France for major transport infrastructures, cost-benefit analysis is constantly being improved to achieve the best socio-economic evaluation possible. According to the philosopher and economist Amartya Sen, this analysis should meet two requirements: one ethical, the other democratic. We will examine the evaluation procedure in France and highlight the gap between its officially more democratic character and its still insufficiently ethical character, from the viewpoint of this dual requirement.