Planning and control of paratransit services in Hong Kong

As paratransit services, Hong Kong's taxis and public light buses (PLB) carried some 30% of the 9.7 million daily public transport boardings in Hong Kong in 1988. Most of the vehicles are individually owned, and services are operated as commercially viable concerns. While operators have a high degree of operational flexibility, taxis and PLBs are closely regulated by the Government. The fleet sizes are controlled by licensing. There is a system of zoning for taxis, and operational prohibitions and restrictions for PLBs. Over the years, Hong Kong has developed some practicable means of operational control on taxis and PLBs. It has been 20 years since PLBs were legalized in 1969. The transition experienced by this mode, from no control to regulated operations, signifies a major step forward from the point of view of transport administration. The Government's participation in the planning for PLB services has guided the development of this mode. In this paper, the planning and control mechanisms for Hong Kong's paratransit modes are introduced. Identified deficiencies are also discussed.     

Planning and Evaluation of Passenger Ferry Service in Hong Kong

A predominant observation in Hong Kong is the continuous loss in ferry patronage. There are two main reasons for this: poor level-of-service and better competitors. New roads, bridges, and tunnels are serving the buses, and to some extent the railways; whereas the investment in ferry terminals is relatively at a lower level. On the one hand, there is no need to promote the ferries in a free market environment; but on the other hand, the ferries have the best safety record, can only relieve some traffic congestion and need water access that is one of the characteristics of Hong Kong. The goal of this paper is to design a planning approach combined with an evaluation procedure on how to make the best use of the existing water and pier resources in Hong Kong through the provision of commercially viable ferry services. The approach used covers the impact of future developments planning up to 2006 comprising all public transport modes in Hong Kong (heavy rail, metro, bus, and ferry). The planning tool is based on a newly developed multi-objective evaluation method in order to assess the ferry routes with scientific, practical, and simplified analyses for future use. This assessment is applied to the existing ferry routes and candidate routes and can also be carried out on an individual route basis or on a given set of routes. The objective functions set forth analytically in the evaluation method take into account the interests of the three participants: the passengers, the operators and the government. The proposed ferry network design formulation and the suggested new ferry routes will have a positive impact on changing the ferry system’s image in Hong Kong.     

On the financial viability of mass transit development: the case of Hong Kong

Mass transit projects are often a top contender of many cities to meet their increasing demand for travel. Despite the global trend of privatization, mass transit services, as public goods, remain largely being provided and operated by the public sector. Hong Kong is one of the few exceptions that all mass transit services are commercially operated. Both rail and bus services in Hong Kong are reputable for their quality and profitability, often serving as benchmarks for new projects. In this study, we investigate the factors contributing to this success. In particular, we ascertain the quality of transit service provision by the private sector over the past two decades. Then, we conduct an in-depth analysis of the account books of leading railway and bus operators in Hong Kong so as to shed light on their financial viability. Through this study, we hope to present crucial factors for providing financially viable private transit services.     

Optimal bus fleet management strategy for emissions reduction

Transportation is a major cause for environmental degradation via exhaust emissions. For many transit-oriented metropolitan areas, bus trips often constitute a sizeable mode share. Managing the bus fleet, in particular updating buses to comply with the newer emissions standards, therefore, can have a substantial impact on transportation-induced air quality. This paper presents the approach of remaining life additional benefit–cost (RLABC) analysis for maximising the total net benefit by either early-retiring or retrofitting the current bus fleet within their lifespans. By referring to the net benefits for different bus types estimated by RLABC analysis, the most beneficial management scheme for the current bus fleet can be identified. Optimal bus fleet management (BFM) models based on the RLABC analysis for the operator and the government are developed. Then a government subsidy plan is produced to achieve win–win solutions, which will offer efficient and flexible management schemes. To illustrate the approach, the largest bus company in Hong Kong, which carries more than 23% of the total trips in Hong Kong, is taken as a case study example. Instead of adopting a fixed retirement plan, such as replacing buses at the age of 17 as is currently practised, the proposed method develops an optimal BFM scheme that progressively phases out buses or retrofits them. This study produces promising results to demonstrate the large benefit of this approach for optimal bus fleet management.     

Merging bus routes in Hong Kong’s central business district: Analysis and models

A significant portion of the 200,000 people working in Hong Kong’s central business district (CBD) relies on buses as their primary means of transport. During peak hours, nearly a thousand double-decker buses pour into a tiny area of 150 ha. This causes traffic congestion and air pollution. Moreover, given that the flow is uni-directional (into the CBD in the morning and out of the CBD in the afternoon), the occupancy of buses in the CBD is actually low.In this paper, we propose to reduce traffic congestion and to increase bus occupancy by merging bus routes. We describe the peculiar situation of the CBD in Hong Kong and explain the necessary conditions for the possible success of merging routes. Our analysis shows that merging will lead to an overall benefit for all parties, including government, bus operators, and passengers. The actual merging decisions, which routes to merge and at what frequencies buses should run, are determined by a mathematical model. The model also shows quantitatively the benefits of merging routes and the impacts of other factors. The procedure that we follow and the model that we adopt can be applied to other CBD.     

Electronic road pricing: An idea whose time may never come

Hong Kong's experiment with electronic road pricing showed that the technology was completely feasible. However, the government was unable to implement the scheme due to strong opposition from a public that perceived it as an invasion of privacy and a tax increase. This outcome was partly a result of forces unique to Hong Kong's political culture as well as both strategic and tactical errors made by the Hong Kong government in presenting its proposal. However, the Hong Kong experience also raises serious questions about whether a sophisticated road pricing scheme will ever be acceptable in a democratic urban polity.     

Willingness-to-pay for alternative fuel vehicle characteristics: A stated choice study for Germany

In the light of European energy efficiency and clean air regulations, as well as an ambitious electric mobility goal of the German government, we examine consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) based on a Germany-wide discrete choice experiment among 711 potential car buyers. We estimate consumers’ willingness-to-pay and compensating variation (CV) for improvements in vehicle attributes, also taking taste differences in the population into account by applying a latent class model with 6 distinct consumer segments. Our results indicate that about 1/3 of the consumers are oriented towards at least one AFV option, with almost half of them being AFV-affine, showing a high probability of choosing AFVs despite their current shortcomings. Our results suggest that German car buyers’ willingness-to-pay for improvements of the various vehicle attributes varies considerably across consumer groups and that the vehicle features have to meet some minimum requirements for considering AFVs. The CV values show that decision-makers in the administration and industry should focus on the most promising consumer group of ‘AFV aficionados’ and their needs. It also shows that some vehicle attribute improvements could increase the demand for AFVs cost-effectively, and that consumers would accept surcharges for some vehicle attributes at a level which could enable their private provision and economic operation (e.g. fast-charging infrastructure). Improvement of other attributes will need governmental subsidies to compensate for insufficient consumer valuation (e.g. battery capacity).     

Assessment of alternative ventilation schemes at public transport interchange

The provision of mechanical ventilation in a semi-confined public transport interchange is mandatory in Hong Kong. The authority recommends the general use of low-level-supply and high-level-exhaust airflow schemes that different from the traditional ventilation concept in that low-level emitted vehicle pollutants are best removed at source. Analyses of air quality at typical public transport interchange environments are conducted for the two airflow schemes. The CFD simulations are generalized by studying light and heavy traffic conditions with adjusted ventilation rates to match the change in vehicle emission levels to examine pollutant concentrations at passenger waiting areas and the elevated footbridges. While the conventional high-level-supply and low-level-exhaust scheme could perform better during light traffic loads, the difference diminishes with increased traffic loads during peak hours. On the other hand, the high-level exhaust scheme has an advantage of serving as a smoke extraction system during a fire outbreak.     

Numerical analysis of electric bus fast charging strategies for demand charge reduction

Electric transit buses have been recognized as an important alternative to diesel buses with many environmental benefits. Electric buses employing lithium titanate batteries can provide uninterrupted transit service thanks to their ability of fast charging. However, fast charging may result in high demand charges which will increase the fuel costs thereby limiting the electric bus market penetration. In this paper, we simulated daily charging patterns and demand charges of a fleet of electric buses in Tallahassee, Florida and identified an optimal charging strategy to minimize demand charges. It was found that by using a charging threshold of 60–64%, a $160,848 total saving in electricity cost can be achieved for a five electric bus fleet, comparing to a charging threshold of 0–28%. In addition, the impact of fleet sizes on the fuel cost was investigated. Fleets of 4 and 12 buses will achieve the lowest cost per mile driven when one fast charger is installed.     

Can Hong Kong price-manage its cross-harbor-tunnel congestion?

Hong Kong drivers face daily congestion, especially at the Cross Harbor Tunnel (CHT) whose tolls are substantially lower than those of the drivers’ other two tunnel options: the Eastern Harbor Crossing (EHC) and the Western Harbor Crossing (WHC). In 2013, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government issued a consultation paper, seeking public comments on three toll-change proposals that would raise the CHT’s tolls and lower the EHC’s tolls. The WHC’s tolls would remain unchanged due to its congested connecting roads. Using monthly crossing data available from the HKSAR’s Transport Department for 2000–2012, this paper uses a Generalized Leontief demand system to document that the usage patterns of the three tunnels is price-responsive. Hence, we conclude that the proposed toll changes are likely to be effective in transportation demand management, by shifting a portion of the CHT’s usage to the EHC and WHC, thereby relieving the CHT’s congestion.     

The role of alternative fuel vehicles: Using behavioral and sensor data to model hierarchies in travel

Greater adoption and use of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) can be environmentally beneficial and reduce dependence on gasoline. The use of AFVs vis-à-vis conventional gasoline vehicles is not well understood, especially when it comes to travel choices and short-term driving decisions. Using data that contains a sufficiently large number of early AFV adopters (who have overcome obstacles to adoption), this study explores differences in use of AFVs and conventional gasoline vehicles (and hybrid vehicles). The study analyzes large-scale behavioral data integrated with sensor data from global positioning system devices, representing advances in large-scale data analytics. Specifically, it makes sense of data containing 54,043,889 s of speed observations, and 65,652 trips made by 2908 drivers in 5 regions of California. The study answers important research questions about AFV use patterns (e.g., trip frequency and daily vehicle miles traveled) and driving practices. Driving volatility, as one measure of driving practice, is used as a key metric in this study to capture acceleration, and vehicular jerk decisions that exceed certain thresholds during a trip. The results show that AFVs cannot be viewed as monolithic; there are important differences within AFV use, i.e., between plug-in hybrids, battery electric, or compressed natural gas vehicles. Multi-level models are particularly appropriate for analysis, given that the data are nested, i.e., multiple trips are made by different drivers who reside in various regions. Using such models, the study also found that driving volatility varies significantly between trips, driver groups, and regions in California. Some alternative fuel vehicles are associated with calmer driving compared with conventional vehicles. The implications of the results for safety, informed consumer choices and large-scale data analytics are discussed.     

Consumer valuation of changes in driving range: A meta-analysis

We perform a meta-analysis of studies investigating consumer preferences for electric and other alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to provide insights into the way driving range is traded off for capital costs. We find that consumers are willing to pay, on average, between 66 and 75 US$ for a 1-mile increase in driving range. Ceteris paribus, 100-mile-range cars have to be priced about 60% less than their conventional counterparts to become competitive. In line with intuition, but in contrast to most specifications employed in primary studies, we find that consumers’ marginal willingness to pay (WTP) decreases at a diminishing rate with increases in driving range. The variation in the WTP and compensating variation estimates among examined studies can be attributed to differences in the levels of driving range considered, in other elements of the study design and in the country of study. Our findings support stated preference literature’s conclusion that short driving range has been a major limitation to the large-scale adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and other AFVs, and that technological developments permitting longer driving ranges will, to some extent, facilitate their market penetration. We further propose that consumer valuation of driving range should not be examined in isolation from other attributes related to refuelling activities, such as refuelling duration and the coverage of refuelling infrastructure.     

Estimation of origin‐destination matrices for a multimodal public transit network

This paper presents a procedure for the estimation of origin‐destination (O‐D) matrices for a multimodal public transit network. The system consists of a number of favored public transit modes that are obtained from a modal split process in a traditional four‐step transportation model. The demand of each favored mode is assigned to the multimodal network, which is comprised of a set of connected links of different public transit modes. An entropy maximization procedure is proposed to simultaneously estimate the O‐D demand matrices of all favored modes, which are consistent with target data sets such as the boarding counts and line segment flows that are observed directly in the network. A case study of the Hong Kong multimodal transit network is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

Pick‐up locations and bus allocation for transit‐based evacuation planning with demand uncertainty

This paper develops a decision‐support model for transit‐based evacuation planning under demand uncertainty. Demand uncertainty refers to the uncertainty associated with the number of transit‐dependent evacuees. A robust optimization model is proposed to determine the optimal pick‐up points for evacuees to assemble, and allocate available buses to transport the assembled evacuees between the pick‐up locations and different public shelters. The model is formulated as a mixed‐integer linear program and is solved via a cutting plane scheme. The numerical example based on the Sioux Falls network demonstrates that the robust plan yields lower total evacuation time and is reliable in serving the realized evacuee demand. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analogy of fixed route shared taxi (taxi khattee) and bus services under various demand density and economical conditions

Taxi khattee is a fixed route unregulated shared taxi. It is a very common mode of transportation in Iran. Fixed route, unscheduled operation, open, unlimited pick‐up and drop‐off locations, and share ride are common features of taxi khattees. Low passenger capacity and working in high demand corridors provides for the possibility of high service frequencies any time of the day. Taxi khattees are similar to jitneys, which are obsolete or illegal in many countries. The aim of this research is to design transit network of an area using taxi khattees in addition to buses. The methodology employed in this paper simultaneously considers the costs to the users and operators on the one hand, and those of the public non‐users on the other hand. Taxi khattees are used in the design of a multimodal network along with buses to characterize the appropriate economic domain for their use. Moreover, their operation indices are compared against those of buses. A sensitivity analysis is carried out on various performance measures. Results show taxi khattees should be used in areas where population density is low, work force is inexpensive, social costs are not considered in fare calculation, and users' value of time is high. The study contradicts the common belief that since taxi khattees provide a high frequency compared to buses, they are economically plausible to use in a transit fleet. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deregulating direct flights across the Taiwan Strait: The transformation of Eastern Asian air transport market and network

Over the past decades Hong Kong has been successfully playing a role as a gateway to China. Since 1988, it has also been the most important hub between Taiwan and China. Over 5 million passengers travelled between Taipei and Hong Kong in 1997, making the link the busiest in the world's international air links and contributing one-sixth of the passengers to Hong Kong airport, which before 1997 had the most international passengers in Asia. In the foreseeable future Taiwan will possibly start some direct services to China; the air link between Hong Kong and Taipei will then compete with many links across Taiwan Strait. These changes may cause the transformation of the market and network structure in eastern Asia. Niches of specific airlines and airports will disappear. This paper examines the issues of possible changes in eastern Asian air transport market: the current market environment, the problems for direct flights across Taiwan Strait, the possible links between Taiwan and China, the future role of Hong Kong, and the market structure in the future.     

Optimal vehicle size for road‐based urban public transport in developing countries

Road‐based public transport in the cities of developing countries comes in a variety of physical and organizational forms. Many of these cities have a large component of unconventional or intermediate public transport (IPT). IPT often fills the gaps in service that cannot be provided by the operators of conventional public transport. The contrast in institutional framework between the operators of conventional vehicles and IPT is sharpened by the profitability of the two types; conventional buses, usually organized in large fleets and often run by the government, are seemingly difficult to maintain as a commercial enterprise whereas IPT which is usually privately owned in small fleets is profitable. A considerable debate has arisen over which type of public transport system (conventional or IPT) to encourage. The debate has often been confused because it involves two quite separate issues: whether the provision of public transport should be left entirely to private enterprise, and, the technical and economic benefits of different bus sizes. Size of vehicle is a particularly important issue in the developing world because vehicles of different size are in common use and are frequently in competition with one another. The purpose of this paper is to review and critically assess current research work on urban public transport with particular reference to vehicle size in the context of Third World conditions.     

Locating refuelling stations for alternative fuel vehicles: a review on models and applications

The recent concerns on environmental issues have expedited the technological development of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), but the deployment of AFVs still remains at the initial stage mainly because of the lack of refuelling facilities. Recognising this, researchers have conducted various studies, proposing a variety of approaches to strategically locating refuelling stations. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the approaches, focusing more on applications than computational issues. The review identifies two main elements of the approaches: location modelling and refuelling demand estimation. Examining how the elements were handled in refuelling location studies, this paper suggests that future refuelling location models should properly reflect the intricate and various perspectives of three major AFV stakeholders: drivers, government agencies and refuelling service providers. This study is expected to help researchers efficiently set up their refuelling location problems and identify critical factors for seeking the solutions.     

Attitudes of Hong Kong residents to cars and public transport: Some policy implications

Hong Kong currently has low levels of car ownership and use due to a combination of good public transport, high population densities and high private transport costs. However, levels are rising, contributing to congestion and environmental problems. A major response by the government is to seek to increase rail's share of public transport journeys from its current level of 33% to 45% by 2016. After reviewing the transport situation in Hong Kong, the paper discusses the appropriateness of these targets as well as questioning whether they are achievable. The results of a questionnaire survey of 595 residents of Hong Kong, designed to elicit people's attitudes to cars and public transport, are analysed. It is concluded that unless the government does more to curb car ownership and use, rail targets will have little chance of being achieved.     

Empirical estimation of price and income elasticities of air cargo demand: The case of Hong Kong

This paper estimates the price and income elasticities of air cargo demand and examines how they may change after the 2008 financial crisis. Using a set of time series data, we simultaneously estimate the aggregated demand and supply functions of air cargo at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA). We find that during the entire sampling period of 2001–2013, the price elasticity for air cargo transport demand at HKIA ranges from −0.74 to −0.29, suggesting that air cargo demand in Hong Kong reacts negatively to price (as expected) but does not appear to be very sensitive to price. The income elasticity ranges from 0.29 to 1.47 and appears sensitive to seasonality adjustment approaches. However, in terms of the speed of changes, air cargo demand changes much faster than overall economy, indicating the presence of a pro-cyclical pattern of air cargo traffic with respect to the overall economy. Our analysis shows that air cargo demand becomes more sensitive to changes in both price and income after 2008.