Environmental traffic management — The end of the road?

This paper questions some aspects of the technical soundness and public acceptability of environmental traffic management scheme of the kind advocated in the Buchanan report, Traffic in Towns. Practical studies have shown that in inner city areas in particular, and perhaps older built-up areas in general, the concept cannot be adequately defended against a wealth of variety of criticism from those whom it most directly affects, i.e. the public. Participation exercises have revealed public fears that the road closures associated with schemes will ruin the viability of local shops, worsen the environmental conditions along local roads chosen as distributors, cause even greater congestion on the main road network due to displaced traffic, and impede the accessibility of local people to their homes. In the light of these, it is suggested a flexible policy be adopted incorporating changes to the forms of vehicles and the manner in which they are used as well as changes to the physical form of the road network.The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the organisations to which the authors are attached.     

Recognition and tracking of spatial–temporal congested traffic patterns on freeways

The two models FOTO (Forecasting of Traffic Objects) and ASDA (Automatische Staudynamikanalyse: Automatic Tracking of Moving Traffic Jams) for the automatic recognition and tracking of congested spatial–temporal traffic flow patterns on freeways are presented. The models are based on a spatial–temporal traffic phase classification made in the three-phase traffic theory by Kerner. In this traffic theory, in congested traffic two different phases are distinguished: “wide moving jam” and “synchronized flow”. The model FOTO is devoted to the identification of traffic phases and to the tracking of synchronized flow. The model ASDA is devoted to the tracking of the propagation of moving jams. The general approach and the different extensions of the models FOTO and ASDA are explained in detail. It is stressed that the models FOTO and ASDA perform without any validation of model parameters in different environmental and traffic conditions. Results of the online application of the models FOTO and ASDA at the TCC (Traffic Control Center) of Hessen near Frankfurt (Germany) are presented and evaluated.     

What is induced traffic?

Investment in new or up-graded roads both raises the level and alters the pattern of accessibility over the whole area served by the road system. Vehicle-users will perceive the opportunities that this increased accessibility offers and respond in various ways, most of which can lead to more rather than less travel on the system. To the extent that travel increases overall, it can be said to have been induced by the road-improvement. Conversely, congestion as it spreads on the network will deter some travel and can be said to have a traffic suppression effect.The purpose of this first paper is to spell out, as clearly as possible, what is meant by induced traffic and to relate its various components to the full range of behavioural responses by travellers. In doing so, it draws upon the recently published (December 1994) report by the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) and response by the UK Government. The paper concludes with some of the implications of induced/suppressed traffic for current methods of forecasting and evaluation of road investment, which are covered in more detail by subsequent authors.     

Forecasting containerized traffic for the port of Montreal (1981–1995)

This paper presents an approach to making long-term forecasts of overseas container traffic in the port of Montreal. The paper discusses, first, why performance models explaining traffic variations in ports when postulating a fixed hinterland may not be appropriate for the port of Montreal. Then, the forecasting approach itself is presented. Using 1981 as the base year, projections of container traffic through the port of Montreal until 1995 are developed by considering separately the traffic flows associated with the Canadian and the United States hinterlands. Our approach takes account of anticipated changes in Canadian and U.S. international trade volume, containerization rates and regional growth within Canada. It yields detailed forecasts of containerized traffic, by origin and destination, for 78 commodity groups, 7 world regions and 11 North American regions (i.e. the 10 Canadian provinces plus the United States). Two forecasting scenarios are considered and the aggregate results for 1995 are reported. Finally, a comparison of forecasts with recent data available for 1984 is made, suggesting that the internation trade projections used to generate our forecasts may be too conservative.     

The Hamilton–Jacobi partial differential equation and the three representations of traffic flow

This paper applies the theory of Hamilton–Jacobi partial differential equations to the case of first-order traffic flow models. The traffic flow surface is analyzed with respect to the three 2-dimensional coordinate systems arising in the space of vehicle number, time and distance. In each case, the solution to the initial and boundary value problems are presented. Explicit solution methods and examples are shown for the triangular flow-density diagram case. This unveils new models and shows how a number of existing models are cast as special cases.     

An empirical analysis of freight transport traffic modes in Brazil, 1996–2012

This paper analyses the performance of freight transportation modes in Brazil – namely air, water, rail and road – from February 1996 to August 2012 by investigating their long memory properties using fractional integration and autoregressive models on monthly tonnage data. Two important features are analysed: the degree of dependence of transportation traffic across time and its seasonal structure over the period. Furthermore, the stability of parameters across the sample period is investigated, incorporating potential structural breaks in the data, which describe discontinuity in freight transportation traffic. Some policy implications are derived.     

Intelligent transportation system and traffic safety – drivers perception and acceptance of electronic speed checkers

Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) can play an important role in reducing risks and increasing traffic safety. Discussion as to whether a technological approach or a behavioral approach is the right way to achieve a safer traffic environment forms a point of departure for this paper. On the one hand, there are the technicians who emphasize technology as the way towards safer traffic. Behaviorists, on the other hand, view the drivers’ behavior as fundamental and argue that education and incentive-oriented policies are essential in order to influence the driver and therefore increase traffic safety. Independent of the approach advocated a successful outcome of either a technological improvement, or an information campaign, has to be based on a high level of acceptance among potential users. In order to increase traffic safety, it is therefore essential to recognize driver motivation and attitudes. In this paper we focus on drivers’ attitudes towards risk, traffic safety and safety measures. A study of drivers’ attitudes and acceptance of an electronic device for speed checking (which the drivers tested for nine months) indicated a high acceptance level. The drivers perceived that they had both become more aware of traffic regulations and behaved in accordance with safety regulations.     

Simultaneous estimation of an origin–destination matrix and link choice proportions using traffic counts

A procedure for the simultaneous estimation of an origin–destination (OD) matrix and link choice proportions from OD survey data and traffic counts for congested network is proposed in this paper. Recognizing that link choice proportions in a network change with traffic conditions, and that the dispersion parameter of the route choice model should be updated for a current data set, this procedure performs statistical estimation and traffic assignment alternately until convergence in order to obtain the best estimators for both the OD matrix and link choice proportions, which are consistent with the survey data and traffic counts.Results from a numerical study using a hypothetical network have shown that a model allowing θ to be estimated simultaneously with an OD matrix from the observed data performs better than the model with a fixed predetermined θ. The application of the proposed model to the Tuen Mun Corridor network in Hong Kong is also presented in this paper. A reasonable estimate of the dispersion parameter θ for this network is obtained.     

Network structure,capacity growth and route hierarchies: the case of China’s air traffic system revisited

This paper examines air traffic patterns among China’s scheduled airlines in January 2006 and January 2011, using Official Airline Guide data on carrier schedules. The author classifies Chinese carriers into one of four classes. Airports are also organized into a classification scheme based on several criteria related to the total volume of traffic, the carriers serving the airports and the nature of the airports to which they are connected. Counts, sums, percentage shares and changes in these calculations between 2006 and 2011 are presented in tabular form. Inferences about the fundamental structure and future patterns of capacity growth for the yet not fully emerged Chinese air traffic system can be drawn.     

Can ports increase traffic while reducing inputs? Technical efficiency of Spanish Port Authorities using a directional distance function approach

The focus of this paper is on the productive efficiency of ports. We estimate a directional technology distance function using parametric techniques to analyze the production technology and technical efficiency of a set of Spanish Port Authorities observed over the period 1993–2012. Technical inefficiency is conceived as the ability of ports to simultaneously expand a given output and contract variable inputs while maintaining quasi-fixed inputs and other outputs constant. Thus, for containerized cargo we address the following question: Given the amount of quasi-fixed inputs used by the firm and given the volume of the other outputs (liquids, solids, non-containerized cargo and passenger traffic), could ports increase their containerized merchandise while simultaneously reducing their variable inputs? Similar questions are asked for solid bulk and non-containerized general cargo. Our results show evidence of technical inefficiency among the ports in our sample. In particular, if the ports operated efficiently, we find that containerized cargo could be expanded by an average of over 6.4%, with an equivalent reduction in variable inputs. Solid bulk cargo and general non-containerized cargo could be increased by 4.1% and 6.1% respectively, with corresponding reductions in variable inputs. An implication of our results is that there is ample scope for specialization on the part of ports with no increase in infrastructure costs. Given that large investments in infrastructure have been made in Spanish port over the last decade, this opens the possibility of moving towards a management model based on taking advantage of existing capacity rather than new investments.     

Stability and bifurcation in network traffic flow: A Poincaré map approach

Previous studies have shown that, in a diverge-merge network with two intermediate links (the DM network), the kinematic wave model always admits stationary solutions under constant boundary conditions, but periodic oscillations can develop from empty initial conditions. Such contradictory observations suggest that the stationary states be unstable. In this study we develop a systematic approach to investigate the stability property of stationary states in this and other networks within the framework of network kinematic wave theories. Based on the observation that kinematic waves propagate in a circular path when only one of the two intermediate links is congested, we derive a one-dimensional, discrete Poincaré map in the out-flux at a Poincaré section. We then prove that the fixed points of the Poincaré map correspond to stationary flow-rates on the two links. With Lyapunov’s first method, we demonstrate that the Poincaré map can be finite-time stable, asymptotically stable, or unstable. When unstable, the map is found to have periodical points of period two, but no chaotic solutions. We further analyze the bifurcation in the stability of the Poincaré map caused by varying route choice proportions. We apply the Poincaré map approach to analyzing traffic patterns in more general (DM)ⁿ and beltway networks, which are sufficient and necessary structures for network-induced unstable traffic and gridlock, respectively. This study demonstrates that the Poincaré map approach can be efficiently applied to analyze traffic dynamics in any road networks with circular information propagation and provides new insights into unstable traffic dynamics caused by interactions among network bottlenecks.     

India’s air traffic: towards an empirical framework for systems analysis

The paper explores patterns of flows within India’s Air Traffic System through the lens of carriers’ networks and route structures between 2006 and 2014. Through observations of frequency distributions and their distinct patterns an analytic framework is derived heuristically by means of classification and aggregation. The well-known skewed traffic distribution which spatially concentrates traffic around relatively few airports serves as the starting point for decomposing the air traffic system (ATS) into its constituent route types. Airline operations along distinct route classes allows for classifying individual carrier’s network features as an embedded part of the system. Discussion of their role includes a spatial component. Inferences about development paths – past, present, future – of the Indian commercial ATS can be made.     

“Comparing guideway transit implementation plans,including the impact on road traffic”

A methodology for comparing phased implementation plans for a new fixed guideway transit system in an urban area is presented. Four assumptions are made: (1) the guideway system replaces existing or planned bus service, (2) superior service on the new system results in increased ridership when compared to buses; (3) presence of the guideway facility redirects outward urban growth resulting in additional ridership, and (4) conversely, the absence of any action on the new guideway facility reinforces a diffuse urban growth pattern that creates an irreversible loss of transit ridership. The economic comparision of alternative plans includes total as well as “relative” inflation of principal cost components. A key feature of the proposed methodology is including in the comparisons the costs of private automobile mileage that could have been replaced by transit. These costs are expressed as “fuel” and “all other” automobile costs; favorable transit system implementation schedules can then be identified as a function of parametrically assumed values for these two unit costs. A hypothetical example demonstrates the proposed method.     

Do Road Planners Produce More ‘Honest Numbers’ than Rail Planners? An Analysis of Accuracy in Road‐traffic Forecasts in Cities versus Peripheral Regions

Abstract

Based on a review of available data from a database on large‐scale transport infrastructure projects, this paper investigates the hypothesis that traffic forecasts for road links in Europe are geographically biased with underestimated traffic volumes in metropolitan areas and overestimated traffic volumes in remote regions. The present data do not support this hypothesis. Since previous studies have shown a strong tendency to overestimated forecasts of the number of passengers on new rail projects, it could be speculated that road planners are more skilful and/or honest than rail planners. However, during the period when the investigated projects were planned (up to the late 1980s), there were hardly any strong incentives for road planners to make biased forecasts in order to place their projects in a more flattering light. Future research might uncover whether the change from the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm to ‘predict and prevent’ occurring in some European countries in the 1990s has influenced the accuracy of road traffic forecasts in metropolitan areas.     

Dynamic Evaluation of Reliability and Stability of the Primary Support of a Tunnel北大核心CSCD

The evaluation of the stability of a tunnel’s primary support is a crucial component of ensuring the safety of subsequent construction. In light of the measured clearance displacements of the Wushishan Tunnel, the reliabili-ty of the primary support is evaluated dynamically and the design of the support structure is optimized. The research results show that full displacement and ultimate displacement are two main parameters for tunnel reliability analy-sis: the former can be obtained by positive and negative analysis, and the latter can be acquired by simulating a field measurement of displacement. It is not sufficient to apply the data specified in the code for railway tunnel design re-liability regarding determination of the reliability of a road tunnel structure using reliability theory, and it is neces-sary to use reliability theory to amend the standard of allowable empirical displacement in the Code of Road Tunnel Design. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Mobilizing meanings of mobility: car users’ constructions of the goods and bads of car use

When car users’ are questioned about the advantages and disadvantages of car use the focus should not be on what they say, but on how they present their arguments to the interviewer. This paper shows such arguments can differ in kind. Swedish car users present the advantages––such as ‘time-saving’––by referring to personal and direct experience. The disadvantages are of two kinds. Some are related to direct experience, such as ‘costs’. Some are made credible by reference to public discourse, notably ‘environmental degradation’. This indicates that the facts about the advantages and environmental impacts are constructed in different ways. Facts about the advantages and some of the disadvantages are constructed in a direct and unreflexive way, situated in practical actions, and leave little room for negotiation. Facts about environmental impacts are constructed by others in a distanced and reflexive process, situated in laboratories, etc. Car users adopt these facts through various media. While the arguments on the advantages of car use are presented as unquestionable and absolute, scientific facts about the negative effects of car use are presented as relative and negotiable. This should be seen as a possible explanation why people do not reduce their own car use, although they say that car use in general ought to be limited.     

Sensitivity Analysis of the Influence of External Wall Insertion Ratio on Deformation of Pit-in-Pit北大核心CSCD

Adopting Hardening-Soil finite element model based on soil unloading conditions, the influence of external wall insertion ratio on deformation of retaining structure and soil was studied taking the foundation pit of a metro transfer station of Suzhou metro line 1 as background. The results show that the maximum lateral displace- ment of external wall decreases with an increase of insertion ratio within the range of 30-35 mm, and the lateral de- formation at the foot of wall increases significantly in a linear form; the lateral deformation at the top of internal wall obviously increases linearly, while the maximum of lateral wall deformation of wall body increases slowly and there is almost no change at the bottom of wall; the uplift at the internal pit bottom is more than 90 mm and it is slightly effected by the insertion ration of external wall while the uplift at the external pit bottom is more than 70 mm and it increases with an decrease of the distance away from the external wall; soil mass settlement at the back of the exter- nal pit is obvious and it decreases with an increases of insertion ratio of external wall within the range 14 m away from the external wall, and the settlement reaches the maximum when the insertion ratio of external wall is 0.25 while the tendency of settlement develops reversely when the distance from the external wall is beyond 14 m. To en- sure the safety and reduce environmental impact, it is significant to determine a reasonable insertion ratio of exter- nal wall regarding the pit-in-pit excavation. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Study of the Settlement Control of Deformation Joints of Tunnels Passing Closely under the Existing Station北大核心CSCD

The newly-built tunnel passing closely under the existing station will inevitably lead to settlement of the existing station, and especially deformation joints are prone to differential settlement. Based on the Suzhoujie Station of Beijing Subway Line 16 passing closely under the existing Line 10, this paper analyzes the overall settlement of the existing station and the differential settlement at deformation joints through a combination of field measurement and numerical simulation. The study results show that installing jacks significantly prevents the settlement of the existing station, after installation of jacks the settlement of the existing station is reduced by about 58%, and the jacking force of the jack shall be controlled between 180-450 t; the impact of construction on the single-deck station structure side at deformation joints is greater than that on the double-deck station structure side, the stress on the socket is gradually increased with the excavation of the lower tunnel, and reduced after installation of jacks, indicating that the jack can effectively reduce the tensile stress of the existing station and maintain the safety of the existing station; with the action of the jacking force of jacks, the settlement curve of the existing station presents a stepwise change at the jack installation points, while the upper ground surface settlement is relatively uniform. © 2022, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

EFECT – evaluation framework of environmental impacts and costs of transport initiatives

EFECT is a generalised methodological framework for evaluating the impacts resulting from transportation projects with a specific orientation to environmental impacts. The innovative aspect of the methodological framework is the combination of Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) with Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) methods to come up with an overall assessment of transport initiatives’ impacts over different geographical regions and time periods. Thus, it addresses both spatial and time impacts of transportation networks for all modes. The framework comprises four steps: structuring, weighting, rating, and exploring. Uncertainty is explicitly treated in the framework through fuzzy sets or, indirectly, through sensitivity testing. EFECT, using an additive function combining MCA and CBA methods, provides simplicity and intuitive understanding of results. This allows the use of either a core approach with a basic set of criteria and weights, or the application of a more detailed evaluation, when needed. The way EFECT is applied and the results produced are presented through a case-study example.