Decision support for risk assessment of mid-air collisions via population-based measures

Specifying proximity warning functions for aircraft in managed airspace has received considerable attention. However, similar functions for aircraft operating in unmanaged airspace have received comparatively little analysis despite the fact that these functions are stressed to a greater physical degree, and perhaps more frequently, than in managed airspace. The mid-air collision hazard and its associated risk are re-examined from both an historical and a systematic engineering modelling viewpoint. Historic measures of this transport risk in managed airspace have been based on fatalities normalized by flight hours or flight movements. However some of these data may not be available in unmanaged airspace. Another approach to measurement directs attention to populations at risk where several measures are now well known: collective risk, individual risk and the frequency of occurrence of the hazards that give rise to such risk. A decision support methodology is presented that relates both transport and population-based approaches. A cohesive and consistent set of aspired goals for various stakeholder groups can be set taking into account the different stakeholder needs. A case study is drawn from historic mid-air collision data to illustrate the process. A consistent basis for national-level policy decisions harmonised with proactive engineering design requirements is achieved. The strengths, limitations and implications of this approach for engineering design purposes are discussed.     

Developing environmentally sustainable logistics: Exploring themes and challenges from a logistics service providers’ perspective

The purpose of this paper is to explore themes and challenges in developing environmentally sustainable logistical activities.The approach is explorative with a cross sectional design that takes advantage of ten case studies out of selected logistics service providers (LSPs) operating primarily in the Scandinavian countries.The findings illustrate the major themes by analyzing current and future activities in developing environmentally sustainable logistical activities. In addition, four categories of challenges are identified: customer priorities, managerial complexity, network imbalance, and technological and legislative uncertainties. It is concluded that there is a great need for a holistic perspective where LSPs and product owners together analyze and design future logistical setups.The suggested holistic and integrative model, building on a three-dimensional concurrent engineering framework, provides new opportunities for research. Further research is needed to improve the interrelationship between LSPs and their customers in the development of sustainable logistical solutions.This paper puts forward recommendations for the sustainable development of logistics by combining the results from the case studies with a review of related literature. This will be beneficial for managers and policy makers when they approach sustainable logistical challenges. The emergence and synthesis of themes and challenges are critical for a sustainable society.     

Framing the role of Decision Support in the case of Stockholm Congestion Charging Trial

Congestion charging was – as a trial – introduced in Stockholm from January 3rd to July 31st 2006. After the referendum in September 2006, the charging system was finally introduced as permanent from August 2007 with some adjustments to the Trial design. The idea of congestion charging is unique in a Swedish context, and the introduction of the Stockholm system has been highly controversial. Considerable efforts have therefore been undertaken to provide information that could serve as ‘Decision Support’ along the way. This has included e.g. modelling and forecasts before the Trial, a comprehensive evaluation programme during the Trial, extensive stakeholder consultations throughout, and various information and communication strategies. But what difference did this information input make, and what was its role in the process from initiating the system, to its final adoption? In this paper we pave the way for investigating the use and role of ‘Decision Support’ in the Stockholm Congestion Charging experiment. We adopt a definition of Decision Support as the systematic application of externally produced knowledge in transport planning and policy making processes. We then derive an analytical framework from the research literature on ‘knowledge utilization’ in policy making. This research has generally found that both ‘technical’, ‘communicative’, and ‘institutional’ aspects of the Decision Support matter for its influence on actual policy making processes and results. In our analysis we find a similar pattern. This high technical quality of the monitoring and evaluation programmes provided for solid verified results, while the institutional arrangements and the communication strategies helped to ensure the credibility and legitimacy of the information for the decision makers. The availability of rich contents coupled with strategies for the timely and targeted information delivery suggest that direct ‘instrumental’ use could have taken place. At a more general level the Trial represents an advanced form of ‘Decision Support’ that goes beyond the mere application of calculated results to encompass a process where the decision parameters themselves become part of the change process.     

A review of consumer preferences of and interactions with electric vehicle charging infrastructure

This paper presents a literature review of studies that investigate infrastructure needs to support the market introduction of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). It focuses on literature relating to consumer preferences for charging infrastructure, and how consumers interact with and use this infrastructure. This includes studies that use questionnaire surveys, interviews, modelling, GPS data from vehicles, and data from electric vehicle charging equipment. These studies indicate that the most important location for PEV charging is at home, followed by work, and then public locations. Studies have found that more effort is needed to ensure consumers have easy access to PEV charging and that charging at home, work, or public locations should not be free of cost. Research indicates that PEV charging will not impact electricity grids on the short term, however charging may need to be managed when the vehicles are deployed in greater numbers. In some areas of study the literature is not sufficiently mature to draw any conclusions from. More research is especially needed to determine how much infrastructure is needed to support the roll out of PEVs. This paper ends with policy implications and suggests avenues of future research.     

Examining the Political and Practical Reality of Bus-based Real Time Passenger Information

Abstract

Enhancing the bus experience through improved information provision is a key element of UK Government transport policy. Real time passenger information (RTPI) is perceived to reassure waiting passengers, to benefit the bus operator through increased revenue and the local authority, by promoting social inclusion and achieving a modal shift. RTPI also provides an important tool for operators by allowing them to monitor services and refine their schedules.

The aim of this paper is to understand the reasons for implementing RTPI in the bus sector, and to determine the key issues impacting on the likely success of such a policy. A case study approach investigates the experiences of two provincial towns in the UK. The paper suggests that, whilst it is unclear whether RTPI has resulted in an increase in bus patronage, it is considered to be most effective when combined as part of a package of measures. It is intended that the findings from the two case studies will reveal lessons of relevance to authorities contemplating the introduction of RTPI.     

The significance and measurement of variability in travel behaviour

It is argued that an understanding of variability is central to the modelling of travel behaviour and the assessment of policy impacts, and is not the peripheral issue that it has often been considered. Drawing on recent studies in the UK and Australia, in conjunction with a review of the literature, the paper first examines the policy and analytical rationale for using multi-day data, then illustrates different ways of measuring variability, and finally discusses issues relating to the collection of suitable data for such analyses. In a policy context, there is a growing need for multi-day data to examine issues that affect general rather than one-day behaviour (e.g. to assess the distribution of user charges for road pricing, or patterns of public transport usage); while analytically, multi-day data is needed to improve our ability to identify the mechanisms behind travel behaviour and to derive better empirical relationships. Three measures of variability are presented: a graphical form showing daily differences in behaviour at the individual level; an aggregate, similarity index; and a hybrid graphical/numerical measure, which provides new insights into variability in daily patterns of behaviour. The paper raises a number of issues for debate, probably the most crucial of which is: variability in what? The way in which behaviour is measured crucially affects our conception of stability and variability.     

A framework for urban freight policy analysis

This paper provides an overview of the urban freight process, in the context of the supply and demand aspects of freight. A framework for analysis is developed, and within that framework, particular aspects of the urban freight process are described. Issues of concern from a public policy viewpoint are highlighted.

Seven main instruments related to public policy are introduced and their application described — taxes and subsidies, regulations, investment, operational instruments, planning, public ownership and research.

It is concluded that the importance of urban freight to the community and its relevance to urban transport justifies a higher level of attention in transport planning and policy formulation, and that there are a wide range of policy instruments available to enable this to be done. The objective of such planning and policy making needs to be specified in each specific context.     

Things planners believe in,and things they deny

The paper examines the economic theory of consumer behavior from the Modern Psychoanalytic point of view with a metaphor of (transport) planning as a backdrop. It is claimed that the utility maximization principle of economic theory, no matter how broadly interpreted, does not envelop the motivation of human behavior and that the economic explanation of the aims of human behavior, which disregards the "dark side" of man, will result in narrowly conceived plans and policies.The application of economic theory, and other social sciences, to public policy has led to disjointedness of data collection, method of analysis, and planning and implementation. This, combined with a tautological behavioral theory, has made the current planning and public policy procedures self-verifying, and issues an invitation for a new theoretical approach which is comprehensive, does not ignore complexity and the large "error term", and appreciates the unity of data collection, method of investigation, and process of implementation.It is argued that unsatisfactory performance of the transport system, large errors inherent in data and models, the inability of extant transportation planning and policy to address key issues successfully, the environmental problem, and the value of the individual all call for new kinds of skills from the planners and policy makers.Freud's dualistic formulation of instinctual drives -- the life and death instincts -- is used as the new framework of explanation. This theory is seen to offer a convincing, more realistic and deeper understanding of the forces motivating human behavior, and one which is more in accordance with observable facts. If applied, the theory will lead to significantly different planning processes and to a profoundly different approach to public policy.     

A multicriteria decision support methodology for evaluating airport expansion plans

Rational decision-making requires an assessment of advantages and disadvantages of choice possibilities, including non-market effects (such as externalities). This also applies to strategic decision-making in the transport sector (including aviation). In the past decades various decision support and evaluation methods have been developed in which a market evaluation played a prominent role. The intrinsic limitations of these approaches were also increasingly recognised. Gradually, a variety of adjusted multidimensional methods has been developed over the past years to complement conventional cost–benefit analysis (CBA). These methods aim to investigate and evaluate all relevant impacts of a choice possibility (e.g., project, plan, or programme) on the basis of a multitude of important policy criteria (so-called multicriteria methods). They have a particular relevance in case of non-priced or qualitative effects. There is a clear need for a systematic and polyvalent multicriteria approach to many actual planning issues, such as land use or transportation. This paper offers a new evaluation framework based on a blend of three types of approaches, viz. Regime Analysis, the Saaty method and the Flag Model. All these methods have been developed separately in the past; the paper makes an effort to offer a cohesive framework, which can be used for the e valuation of spatial-economic and environmental-economic policy issues. This new tool is tested by means of a case study on conflicting plans (and policy views) for airport expansion options in the Maastricht area in the southern part of The Netherlands.     

Sustainable mobility: Policy design and implementation in three Norwegian cities

The paper explores barriers for designing and implementing policies for the transition to more environmentally sustainable urban mobility, and strategies for overcoming these barriers in three Norwegian cities. Empirical data has been collected by interviewing key informants and analysing relevant documents. The findings show that there is broad political support for placing sustainable mobility high on the political agenda. Challenges appear when policy measures are designed and implemented. Cultural, legal, political, organisational, financial and knowledge-related barriers are identified. Many similar barriers are identified in the three case cities, but differences also appear. The results indicate that the size of the cities as well as the type of policy packages implemented are important factors, impacting both the type and strength of barriers. Several strategies for overcoming barriers have been implemented in the three case cities with success. The implementation of policy packages with a combination of “push” and “pull” measures is perhaps the most important strategy. In addition, using communication strategically and allowing for trials and step-by-step introduction of policy measures are success factors. Better methods for stakeholder involvement and planning tools for bicyclists and pedestrians may increase the acceptance of policy measures and speed up the transition toward sustainable mobility.     

Experiential Incrementalism: On the Theory and Technique to Implement Transport Plans and Policies

The paper describes an approach to the vexing problem of transport planning and policy. It deals jointly with three questions, which in today's practice are addressed separately: How are hypotheses about transport problems and alternatives to their solution developed? How can a good plan or policy be identified? What is the process of implementing a transport plan or policy? In doing this the paper has the ambitious objective of proposing a new model and process for transport planning and policy. It is applicable in developed and developing countries and is not restricted to the transport sector. The paper builds on, and is a reinterpretation of two cornerstone transport planning and decision-making models – the CATS (Chicago Area Transportation Study) Planning and Design Model and Braybrooke and Lindblom's Disjointed Incrementalism. It advances a technique of experiential incrementalism (termed polisanalysis) to develop and implement plans and policies. It proposes that problems should be diagnosed by observation and continuous data collection; that their continuous analysis, finding the “cure”, and implementation take place through the method of experiential incrementalism. In this method interventions are grounded on the theories of neoinstitutional economics and psychoanalysis and derived using contact function, explained in the paper, which renders the method scientific replicability. Experiential incrementalism can employ a wider array of options in planning and policy than is presently thought possible. Like other scientific methods, its application requires rigorous training.     

Incorporating equity as part of the wider impacts in transport infrastructure assessment: an application of the SUMINI approach

The state of the art in appraisal of transport infrastructure (particularly for developed countries) is moving towards inclusivity of a set of wider impacts than has traditionally been the case. In appraisal frameworks generally Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), features as either an alternative to, or complementary with, Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) particularly when assessing a wider set of distributional and other impacts. In that respect it goes some way towards addressing an identified weakness in conventional CBA. This paper proposes a new method to incorporate the wider impacts into the appraisal framework (SUMINI) based upon a composite indicator and MCA. The method is illustrated for a particular example of the wider set of impacts, i.e. equity, through the ex-post assessment of two large EU transport infrastructure (TEN-T) case studies. The results suggest that SUMINI assesses equity impacts well and the case studies highlight the flexibility of the approach in reflecting different policy or project objectives. The research concludes that this method should not be viewed as being in competition with traditional CBA, but that it could be an easily adopted and complementary approach. The value in the research is in providing a new and significant methodological advance to the historically difficult question of how to evaluate equity and other wider impacts. The research is of strong international significance due to the publication of the TEN-Ts review by the European Commission, as well as the transnational nature of large scale interurban transport schemes, the involvement of national and transnational stakeholder groups in the approval and funding of those schemes, the large numbers of population potentially subject to equity and other wider impacts and the degree of variation in the regional objectives and priorities for transport decision makers.     

Integrating parking behaviour in activity-based travel demand modelling: Investigation of the relationship between parking type choice and activity scheduling process

Traditionally, the parking choice/option is considered to be an important factor in only in the mode choice component of a four-stage travel demand modelling system. However, travel demand modelling has been undergoing a paradigm shift from the traditional trip-based approach to an activity-based approach. The activity-based approach is intended to capture the influences of different policy variables at various stages of activity-travel decision making processes. Parking is a key policy variable that captures land use and transportation interactions in urban areas. It is important that the influences of parking choice on activity scheduling behaviour be identified fully. This paper investigates this issue using a sample data set collected in Montreal, Canada. Parking type choice and activity scheduling decision (start time choice) are modelled jointly in order to identify the effects of parking type choice on activity scheduling behaviour. Empirical investigation gives strong evidence that parking type choice influences activity scheduling process. The empirical findings of this investigation challenge the validity of the traditional conception which considers parking choice as exogenous variable only in the mode choice component of travel demand models.     

I can’t believe your attitude: a joint estimation of best worst attitudes and electric vehicle choice

The number of conventionally fuelled motor vehicles in use is increasing worldwide despite warnings about finite fossil fuel and the detrimental impacts of burning such fuels. While electric vehicles, the subject of much research, generate far less emissions and offer the potential for power from renewable sources, they are yet to significantly penetrate the market. Tangible barriers such as price and vehicle range still exist, but consumer attitudes also drive behaviour. This paper examines attributes in a framework relatively new to transportation and energy policy; best–worst scaling. This method is widely considered an improvement over traditional methods of eliciting attitudes and beliefs, where respondents select attitudes they find best or worst from a set of attitudinal statements. To avoid potential endogeneity bias, we jointly model attitudes and choice for the first time with best–worst data. It is found that energy crisis, air quality and climate change concerns influence behaviour with respect to vehicle range and that travel behaviour change and forms of government incentives are needed influences on behaviour with respect to vehicle emissions. It is argued that correctly modelling attitudes reduces the error term of the vehicle choice model and provides policy makers with an improved lens for assessing behaviour. Additionally, the methods described within can easily be adapted to other policy scenarios.     

Changes in transport planning policy: Changes in transport planning methodology?

The 1990s saw the emergence of influential transport legislation both in the UK and in the USA. This "watershed" period appears to indicate that a significant turning point in transport policy is underway. There is now a need to re-evaluate how transport planning is done, and to consider changes to commonly used methods. Criticisms of urban transport planning are traced in the paper. These often focus on the four-stage modelling approach, but some authors also criticise the "rational comprehensive" paradigmatical framework within which the use of four-stage computer models is situated. It is argued that the rational comprehensive model of thinking is less useful today, due to the increasing complexity of the transport planning exercise; the rejection by the public of the transport planner as "expert"; and the highly political nature of transport planning. Alternative approaches are needed in order to address the new types of problems which transport planners face. The use of one such alternative approach, the Soft Systems Methodology, is illustrated as suitable for investigating complex decision-making systems in transport planning. It is suggested that this method could be beneficial in other problematic transport planning situations where the rational comprehensive approaches prove inadequate. Finally, the paper briefly looks ahead and considers the implications of a changing policy environment to the training of transport planners in the future.     

Developing Transport Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa through Public–Private Partnerships: Policy Practice and Implications

In contemporary times, Public–Private Partnership (PPP) in transport infrastructure has gained considerable attention in developing regions following its success in the developed countries. However, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is among the developing regions with few transport PPP projects and among the regions with high number of failed projects. Meanwhile the region's transport infrastructure need far exceeds it current provision. This paper therefore aims to examine the project experiences (success and failure factors) of three highly profiled transport PPP projects, namely the Lekki toll road concession project (Nigeria), N4 toll road (South Africa/Mozambique) and Port of Maputo (Mozambique) in order to develop policy measures for effective future implementation. The experiences of the three projects show that transport PPP policy is indeed feasible in SSA. However, to realise its full applicability, proper policy actions and measures must be carefully observed and these include effective and efficient stakeholder management, transparent and competitive tendering process, high participation of local investors, stable macro-economic conditions and strong government commitment and regulatory framework. The projects experiences and policy actions developed are impactful in accelerating transport infrastructure development through PPP approach in SSA. Hence it is hoped that policy-makers and practitioners would be informed on the key strategies to employ in implementing future projects.     

Does emission control area policy reduce sulfur dioxides concentration in Shanghai?

As an important measure to abate ship-source air emissions, the establishment of Emission Control Area (ECA) has been adopted not only at international level, but also at national and regional level. However, there exists a research gap of employing econometric models to enrich the ECA policy evaluation research by testing the effectiveness of an ECA policy based on the empirical data. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of the ECA policy in shanghai port by adopting regression discontinuity (RD) approach. The RD design is considered as a wonderful substitution for the randomized control trial, which usually serves as a conventional and effective tool to address endogeneity. The causal effect of the ECA policy on the SO₂ concentration reduction can be detected by the RD approach. According to the estimated results, there is a discontinuity around the ECA policy cutoff point, and it is indicated that the SO₂ concentration in Shanghai decreased by at least 0.229 μg/m³ daily on average due to the implementation of the ECA policy. The positive role that the ECA policy plays in reducing SO₂ concentration in Shanghai is well demonstrated. This paper also puts forward an agenda for the future studies in the domain of the ECA policy evaluation.     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a reply

In the last four years, some 20 urban areas in the UK have commissioned or considered conducting Integrated Transport Studies, which are designed to develop a transport strategy for the next 20–30 years. Such studies represent a new approach to transport policy formulation, since they respond to a vision of the future for the area, treat a wide range of transport and land use policy instruments, emphasize synergy between those instruments, and provide a framework for facilitating action rather than a rigid blueprint for the future. They also differ from past studies in the speed with which they have been conducted, and in the analytical techniques which have made this possible. This paper reviews the background to these studies, the evaluation approach adopted, the policy instruments considered and the analytical methods developed for the studies. It concludes with an assessment of the policy implications stressing in particular the need to reduce trip length, the crucial impact of pricing as an instrument of transport policy, the importance of achieving synergy in strategy development, and the requirement for a common basis for evaluating and financing different transport policy instruments.     

Well-being and Transport: Taking Stock and Looking Forward

ABSTRACT

It is only recently that researchers have attempted to directly link transport to models of well-being and in turn try to map transport's linkages to well-being outcomes. This paper seeks to add to this new literature by introducing a dynamic model of well-being, which highlights the different domains that make up well-being, and in turn — through providing one of the most holistic and comprehensive discussions of the current well-being literature — provide an evaluation of our current understanding of transport's relationship to well-being. The paper also seeks to highlight the different dimensions and complexities of seeking to monitor and improve well-being through transport policy. It will in turn be argued that the varied and complex sets of outcomes that arise from transport policy interventions, and the multiple ways in which they affect well-being, make a well-being approach (that measures policy outcomes in terms of units of well-being) of particular value for policy-makers. However, due to the complexities in comparing positive well-being outcomes, it is argued that the best use of well-being evidence for the transport sector may be to try to minimise the negative effects on well-being caused by policy outcomes.     

Techniques of land use/transportation planning in Australian cities

With the publication of the Sydney Area Transportation Study, land-use/transportation studies now have been conducted in all capital cities as well as in the majority of other urban areas with populations in excess of 40.000. A review of these studies is made and a qualitative assessment is attempted of the technical phases —land-use planning, trip-generation, trip-distribution, modal-split, traffic assignment and evaluation. Full summary results of this comparative survey are presented in tabular form, although themes developed in the text are illustrated with specific examples from individual studies. The methodology of land-use/transportation studies has been attacked by some Australian writers. An attempt is made to assess the relevance of these criticisms when applied to the practical planning process in Australia.